Claranova — Resumption of underlying growth

Claranova (PAR: CLA)

Last close As at 23/05/2024

EUR2.29

0.03 (1.33%)

Market capitalisation

EUR131m

More on this equity

Research: TMT

Claranova — Resumption of underlying growth

Claranova’s Q223 revenue update confirmed its PlanetArt division has returned to underlying growth, helping the group to report organic constant currency (cc) growth for the first time since Q321. The company noted that to strengthen its customer base it had increased marketing spend in both PlanetArt and Avanquest; while this would weigh on H1 profitability, it should have a positive impact on H2 profitability. Partly due to the inflationary environment, we have trimmed our EBITDA forecasts for FY23 and FY24.

Katherine Thompson

Written by

Katherine Thompson

Director

TMT

Claranova

Resumption of underlying growth

Q223 revenue update

Software and comp services

14 February 2023

Price

€2.30

Market cap

€105m

$1.075:€1

Net debt (€m) at end FY22

71.2

Shares in issue

45.5m

Free float

84%

Code

CLA

Primary exchange

Euronext Paris

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(20.6)

(7.3)

(55.2)

Rel (local)

(23.5)

(14.4)

(55.0)

52-week high/low

€5.31

€2.28

Business description

Claranova consists of three businesses focused on mobile and internet technologies: PlanetArt (digital photo printing; personalised gifts), Avanquest (consumer-focused software) and myDevices (internet of things/IoT). Its headquarters are in Paris, France and it has operations in Europe, the United States and Canada.

Next events

H123 results

29 March

Analyst

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Claranova is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Claranova’s Q223 revenue update confirmed its PlanetArt division has returned to underlying growth, helping the group to report organic constant currency (cc) growth for the first time since Q321. The company noted that to strengthen its customer base it had increased marketing spend in both PlanetArt and Avanquest; while this would weigh on H1 profitability, it should have a positive impact on H2 profitability. Partly due to the inflationary environment, we have trimmed our EBITDA forecasts for FY23 and FY24.

Year end

Revenue
(€m)

EBITDA*
(€m)

PBT**
(€m)

Diluted EPS**
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

06/21

470.6

32.9

24.2

0.37

0.0

6.1

06/22

473.7

25.5

7.2

0.11

0.0

21.5

06/23e

526.5

34.4

15.5

0.24

0.0

9.7

06/24e

552.3

39.5

20.7

0.32

0.0

7.2

Note: *Pre-IFRS 16. **PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Signs of good progress for PlanetArt

In Q223, on a cc organic basis, PlanetArt grew revenue by 3% yoy, Avanquest saw a 2% decline and myDevices reported flat revenue, resulting in group revenue growth of 2%. Adding in the effect of currency and Avanquest acquisitions, the group reported year-on-year revenue growth of 13%. PlanetArt has been working hard to develop alternative customer acquisition channels since the introduction of Apple’s privacy policy in April 2021 (Q421) and in Q223 generated the first quarter of underlying growth since Q321, which in turn has resulted in the first quarter of underlying growth for the group since Q321.

Minor changes to forecasts

We have revised our revenue forecasts to reflect slightly better PlanetArt growth and slightly lower growth for Avanquest and myDevices. We have marginally reduced our EBITDA forecasts to reflect the divisional profit mix and overall cost inflation. Claranova will report full H123 results on 29 March.

Valuation: Sustained profitable growth is key

Reflecting the different business models for each division, we continue to use a sum-of-the-parts approach to valuation. Using EV/sales multiples that reflect our views on divisional growth and profitability and are conservative compared to the peer group averages, we maintain our €7.39 per share valuation. In our view, consistent growth in revenues and margins towards Claranova’s FY24 targets will be fundamental to reducing the discount to peers. In the near term, sustained growth in PlanetArt (while balancing profitability) will be the key trigger.

Q223 revenue update

The table below summarises Claranova’s divisional performance for Q223 and H123. On a cc organic basis, the group grew revenue by 2% y-o-y in Q223 and 1% in H123.

Exhibit 1: Divisional revenue performance

Revenues (€m unless otherwise stated)

Q223

Q222

y-o-y

y-o-y

y-o-y

y-o-y

Reported

Constant currency

Organic

Constant currency organic

PlanetArt

187

163

14%

3%

14%

3%

Avanquest

30

28

8%

4%

2%

(2%)

myDevices

1

1

10%

0%

10%

0%

Total

218

193

13%

3%

13%

2%

H123

H122

PlanetArt

255

227

12%

1%

12%

1%

Avanquest

57

50

13%

6%

8%

1%

myDevices

3

2

27%

13%

27%

13%

Total

315

280

12%

2%

12%

1%

Source: Claranova

PlanetArt returns to organic growth in Q223

For the first time since Q321, PlanetArt generated cc organic revenue growth, at 3% in Q223 up from negative 3% in Q123. This is the first quarter of underlying growth since Apple introduced its App Tracking Transparency (ATT) policy in April 2021. Since then, management has been trialling new methods of customer acquisition and in Q223, managed to combine various marketing approaches allowing it to win new customers, while stabilising the cost of acquisition. The division’s focus is now on scaling this approach. The last quarter of the calendar year is always the strongest for PlanetArt, covering Thanksgiving and Christmas, with particular strength in US web-based offerings, which are less affected by the ATT changes. The division also continues to invest in R&D, using artificial intelligence to make its products more accessible. For example, it has integrated ChatGPT technology into its Ink Cards application to help users write messages in their greeting cards.

Avanquest: stable performance for H123

On a cc basis, the division grew 4% y-o-y in Q223. Excluding the PDF Forge and Scanner App acquisitions (c €1.6m contribution), it declined 2% y-o-y as the business saw slightly lower advertising revenue rates for its freemium products. Organic cc revenue growth was 1% for H123. Throughout H1, the division ramped up its marketing investments to expand its SaaS customer base. PDF Forge integration is progressing well.

myDevices sees growth in ARR

The division saw flat revenues on a cc basis in Q223, with 13% growth for H123. Annual recurring revenue (ARR) stood at €2.6m at the end of H123, up 30% y-o-y in cc and up from €2.4m at the end of FY22. The number of distributors increased to 190 from 143 a year ago.

Changes to estimates

We have revised our revenue forecasts to reflect the stronger than expected performance in PlanetArt, partially offset by slightly lower revenues in Avanquest and myDevices. Reflecting the current inflationary environment, we have trimmed our EBITDA forecasts for FY23 and FY24.

Exhibit 2: Changes to forecasts

€m (unless otherwise stated)

FY23e

FY23e

FY24e

FY24e

Old

New

Change

y-o-y

Old

New

Change

y-o-y

Revenues

519.5

526.5

1.3%

11.2%

550.0

552.3

0.4%

4.9%

EBITDA

38.5

38.0

(1.3%)

34.6%

43.7

43.2

(1.1%)

13.7%

EBITDA margin

7.4%

7.2%

(0.2%)

1.3%

8.0%

7.8%

(0.1%)

0.6%

EBITDA - pre IFRS 16

35.0

34.4

(1.7%)

34.8%

40.1

39.5

(1.5%)

14.9%

EBITDA margin - pre IFRS 16

6.7%

6.5%

(0.2%)

1.1%

7.3%

7.2%

(0.1%)

0.6%

Normalised operating profit

33.5

33.0

(1.5%)

39.7%

38.7

38.2

(1.3%)

15.8%

Normalised operating margin

6.5%

6.3%

(0.2%)

1.3%

7.0%

6.9%

(0.1%)

0.6%

Reported operating profit

29.0

28.5

(1.8%)

58.9%

34.0

33.5

(1.5%)

17.6%

Reported operating margin

5.6%

5.4%

(0.2%)

1.6%

6.2%

6.1%

(0.1%)

0.7%

Normalised PBT

16.0

15.5

(3.2%)

116.7%

21.2

20.7

(2.4%)

33.6%

Reported PBT

11.5

11.0

(4.4%)

(359.0%)

16.5

16.0

(3.0%)

45.5%

Normalised net income

12.3

11.9

(3.3%)

137.5%

16.3

15.8

(2.8%)

33.2%

Reported net income

8.8

8.4

(4.6%)

(180.3%)

12.7

12.2

(3.6%)

45.0%

Normalised basic EPS (€)

0.27

0.26

(3.3%)

121.8%

0.36

0.35

(2.8%)

33.3%

Normalised diluted EPS (€)

0.25

0.24

(3.3%)

123.1%

0.33

0.32

(2.8%)

33.3%

Reported basic EPS (€)

0.19

0.18

(4.6%)

(175.0%)

0.28

0.27

(3.6%)

45.2%

Net debt/(cash)

88.5

87.9

(0.7%)

23.4%

76.0

76.2

0.2%

(13.3%)

Net debt/EBITDA (x)

2.5

2.6

1.9

1.9

Divisional revenues

PlanetArt

392.3

400.6

2.1%

9.4%

408.4

412.3

0.9%

2.9%

Avanquest

120.8

119.8

(0.8%)

17.2%

134.5

133.4

(0.9%)

11.3%

myDevices

6.5

6.1

(5.2%)

17.6%

7.0

6.7

(4.3%)

9.5%

Total

519.5

526.5

1.3%

11.2%

550.0

552.3

0.4%

4.9%

Divisional EBITDA

PlanetArt

21.5

21.0

(2.3%)

29.0%

24.3

23.4

(3.7%)

11.4%

Avanquest

15.2

15.0

(1.3%)

28.9%

17.5

17.5

0.0%

16.7%

myDevices

(1.8)

(1.6)

(6.7%)

(32.5%)

(1.7)

(1.4)

(17.6%)

(14.3%)

Total EBITDA - pre IFRS 16

35.0

34.4

(1.7%)

34.8%

40.1

39.5

(1.5%)

14.9%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

€'m

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023e

2024e

30-June

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

130.2

161.5

262.3

409.1

470.6

473.7

526.5

552.3

EBITDA

 

 

(5.0)

3.9

16.0

20.6

36.5

28.3

38.0

43.2

Company adjusted EBITDA

 

 

(5.0)

3.9

16.0

17.4

32.9

25.5

34.4

39.5

Normalised operating profit

 

 

(5.8)

3.4

15.5

15.8

31.0

23.7

33.0

38.2

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0.0

0.0

(1.5)

(2.4)

(3.1)

(3.8)

(4.5)

(4.7)

Exceptionals

0.4

(2.4)

(2.9)

(5.6)

(4.4)

(0.7)

0.0

0.0

Share-based payments

(4.8)

(7.1)

0.3

0.0

0.0

(1.2)

0.0

0.0

Reported operating profit

(10.1)

(6.1)

11.4

7.8

23.5

18.0

28.5

33.5

Net Interest

(0.9)

(0.3)

(3.5)

(4.5)

(6.8)

(16.5)

(17.5)

(17.5)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

(45.6)

0.0

0.0

(5.7)

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(6.6)

3.1

12.0

11.3

24.2

7.2

15.5

20.7

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(11.0)

(6.4)

(37.7)

3.3

16.7

(4.2)

11.0

16.0

Reported tax

(0.4)

(1.8)

(3.7)

(2.1)

(3.5)

(5.7)

(2.5)

(3.7)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(7.0)

2.4

9.2

8.7

18.6

5.5

11.9

15.9

Profit After Tax (reported)

(11.4)

(8.2)

(41.4)

1.2

13.2

(10.0)

8.5

12.3

Minority interests

0.3

0.2

0.6

(0.7)

(3.7)

(0.5)

(0.0)

(0.1)

Discontinued operations

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

(6.7)

2.6

9.8

8.0

14.9

5.0

11.9

15.8

Net income (reported)

(11.0)

(7.9)

(40.8)

0.5

9.5

(10.5)

8.4

12.2

Basic ave. number of shares outstanding (m)

38

39

39

39

39

43

46

46

EPS - basic normalised (€)

 

 

(0.18)

0.07

0.25

0.20

0.38

0.12

0.26

0.35

EPS - diluted normalised (€)

 

 

(0.18)

0.06

0.25

0.20

0.37

0.11

0.24

0.32

EPS - basic reported (€)

 

 

(0.29)

(0.20)

(1.04)

0.01

0.24

(0.25)

0.18

0.27

Dividend (€)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue growth (%)

10.9

24.0

62.4

56.0

15.0

0.7

11.2

4.9

EBITDA Margin (%)

-3.8

2.4

6.1

5.0

7.7

6.0

7.2

7.8

Company adjusted EBITDA margin (%)

-3.8

2.4

6.1

4.3

7.0

5.4

6.5

7.2

Normalised Operating Margin

-4.4

2.1

5.9

3.9

6.6

5.0

6.3

6.9

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

2.0

1.3

75.1

93.7

96.6

123.3

147.9

143.8

Intangible Assets

0.9

0.5

69.9

70.5

77.5

96.6

120.6

115.9

Tangible Assets

0.3

0.2

1.4

15.7

12.2

18.2

18.8

19.4

Investments & other

0.7

0.6

3.8

7.5

6.9

8.5

8.5

8.5

Current Assets

 

 

28.1

79.1

100.9

116.3

128.4

146.7

162.4

184.7

Stocks

3.7

3.7

4.8

14.4

16.1

22.0

24.5

25.7

Debtors

4.3

4.9

11.6

9.9

9.2

8.3

9.2

9.7

Cash & cash equivalents

17.1

65.7

75.4

82.8

90.4

100.3

112.6

133.3

Other

2.9

4.8

9.1

9.2

12.7

16.1

16.1

16.1

Current Liabilities

 

 

(28.1)

(37.2)

(60.5)

(74.6)

(76.7)

(106.0)

(113.7)

(117.3)

Creditors

(26.6)

(35.4)

(54.8)

(64.3)

(63.8)

(78.1)

(85.8)

(89.4)

Tax and social security

(0.3)

(1.7)

(3.0)

(1.2)

(2.0)

(1.9)

(1.9)

(1.9)

Short term borrowings

(1.1)

(0.1)

(2.7)

(6.1)

(7.7)

(22.6)

(22.6)

(22.6)

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

(3.0)

(3.2)

(3.4)

(3.4)

(3.4)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(0.7)

(29.0)

(52.0)

(73.1)

(66.1)

(162.3)

(191.3)

(200.3)

Long term borrowings

0.0

(28.1)

(49.1)

(62.8)

(57.4)

(148.9)

(177.9)

(186.9)

Other long-term liabilities

(0.7)

(0.9)

(2.9)

(10.3)

(8.7)

(13.4)

(13.4)

(13.4)

Net Assets

 

 

1.3

14.2

63.6

62.3

82.2

1.7

5.4

11.0

Minority interests

(0.1)

(1.8)

(11.0)

(11.7)

(16.2)

(3.3)

1.5

8.1

Shareholders' equity

 

 

1.2

12.5

52.6

50.6

66.0

(1.6)

6.8

19.0

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

(5.0)

3.9

16.0

20.6

36.5

28.3

38.0

43.2

Working capital

6.8

7.9

(4.1)

22.5

(3.1)

3.2

4.3

2.0

Exceptional & other

(2.2)

(5.7)

(5.2)

(6.3)

(8.9)

(4.2)

0.0

0.0

Tax

(0.0)

(1.2)

(3.8)

(6.8)

(5.1)

(9.4)

(2.5)

(3.7)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(0.4)

5.0

3.0

30.0

19.4

17.9

39.8

41.5

Capex

(0.2)

(0.1)

(2.5)

(1.2)

(3.8)

(2.2)

(2.0)

(2.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

3.6

14.2

(13.3)

(31.9)

(3.8)

(73.3)

(33.3)

(6.7)

Net interest

(0.0)

(0.3)

0.0

(0.5)

(0.7)

(1.7)

(8.5)

(8.5)

Equity financing

1.9

2.0

(1.4)

0.0

2.4

13.3

0.0

0.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.1

(0.6)

0.0

0.4

(2.6)

1.9

(3.6)

(3.6)

Net Cash Flow

5.0

20.1

(14.2)

(3.2)

11.0

(44.1)

(7.6)

20.7

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(9.8)

(16.0)

(37.5)

(23.6)

(13.9)

(25.3)

71.2

87.9

FX

(0.6)

0.4

0.3

(0.8)

1.8

2.1

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

1.8

1.1

0.0

(5.7)

(1.3)

(54.5)

(9.0)

(9.0)

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(16.0)

(37.5)

(23.6)

(13.9)

(25.3)

71.2

87.9

76.2

Source: Claranova, Edison Investment Research

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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IRLAB Therapeutics — Cautious update on portfolio timelines

IRLAB Therapeutics has provided an update on upcoming development milestones for its central nervous system disease-focused pipeline. While the Phase IIb study of pirepemat in Parkinson’s disease related falls (PD-falls) continues to open new clinical sites in Europe, patient enrolment has been slower than anticipated. The company expects recruitment to be complete by end-2023 with top-line results in H124 (previously H223). We believe IRLAB’s announcement represents a more cautious approach to development in FY23 following the recent disappointing update on mesdopetam and the overall macroeconomic environment. Considering pirepemat has previously demonstrated encouraging preliminary signs of efficacy in a Phase IIa study, we do not expect the adjusted timelines to affect the drug’s potential. Our valuation and forecasts remain under review and we will update them following the FY22 results on 23 February.

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