Last close As at 05/08/2026
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Market capitalisation
EUR2,693m
Research: Industrials
Theon International is a market leader in the defence optronics (night vision and thermal imaging) sector. Strong order intake, particularly in Q424, has enabled management to provide a positive outlook for FY25, including c 20% revenue growth. Adding in the mid-20% operating margins, we see the shares offering clear attractions on the current undemanding P/E rating of 11x in FY25e.
Theon International |
Record order book and upgrade to FY25 |
FY25 guidance released |
Aerospace and defence |
2 January 2025 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Theon International is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Theon International is a market leader in the defence optronics (night vision and thermal imaging) sector. Strong order intake, particularly in Q424, has enabled management to provide a positive outlook for FY25, including c 20% revenue growth. Adding in the mid-20% operating margins, we see the shares offering clear attractions on the current undemanding P/E rating of 11x in FY25e.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/22 |
142.9 |
37.8 |
N/A |
0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/23 |
218.7 |
49.9 |
N/A |
0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/24e |
349.6 |
82.9 |
93 |
31 |
13.5 |
2.5 |
12/25e |
420.1 |
105.2 |
114 |
38 |
11.0 |
3.0 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
New guidance for FY25 and forecast changes
The company has issued guidance for FY25. Revenue is expected to be €410–430m, which suggests c 20% y-o-y growth and is supported by 80% soft order cover, with Theon’s sector-leading ‘mid-20s’ margins to be maintained. Capex is expected to increase by 25% to €20m to support growth. Management has not provided guidance for FY26, but a soft order book of c €300m for FY26, continued strong defence spend and the anticipated contribution from new platform products underpin our assumption for further strong growth. For FY25, we forecast organic revenue growth of 20.2%, up from 12.5%, PBT of €105.2m, up from €95.9m (+9.7%) and EPS of 114c, up from 104c (+9.8%). For FY26, we estimate organic revenue growth of 14.9%, up from 11.5%, PBT of €123.8m, up from €110.9m (+11.6%) and EPS of 133c, up from 119c (+11.9%).
Positive backlog momentum
Theon announced a number of new contract wins in Q424. Of particular note was exercising the third option of the Organisation for Joint Armament Cooperation (OCCAR) agreement for the supply of binocular night vision (BNVG) systems to the German armed forces. As a consequence, the soft order book increased from €540m at end FY23 to over €650m at end FY24, more than 20% higher.
Valuation: Strong upside despite recent performance
We increase our peer-based relative valuation from €19.7/share to €21.2/share and our discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation from €15.8/share to €17.8/share, despite using a conservative weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 10%. The shares have performed strongly since the IPO (at €10/share). Nevertheless, we would expect this valuation gap to continue to narrow as the company delivers on its strategy, and investor understanding and confidence in the business improve.
Order book and guidance update
Significant order intake and backlog progression in Q4
Order intake accelerated through the year to more than €510m, significantly ahead of expected revenues (last guidance was at the upper end of the €340–350m range). The soft order book at the year-end was over €650m, up by more than 20% on the year (see Exhibit 1), providing significant visibility into FY25 and FY26. Management also commented that ‘new order intake is expected to continue in the new year’, supported by continued defence expenditure to maintain operational capabilities.
Key order announcements in Q4 are as follows:
■
18 December 2024: exercise of the third consecutive option of the OCCAR agreement for the supply of BNVG systems to the German armed forces. This contract is operated through Theon’s JV with Hensoldt. The exact value of the contract extension has not been released, although management commented that the group’s soft backlog would now extend to over €650m. There remains a further similar-sized option to be exercised.
■
9 December 2024: two orders with a total value of €47m for Argus monoculars, NYX binoculars and the IRIS-C thermal imaging clip-on system, part of the new Augmented Reality Modular Ecosystem of Devices (ARMED) devices.
■
20 November 2024: order intake for binoculars increased the soft backlog by c €74m and is expected to convert to a hard backlog over the next few months.
■
7 November 2024: new order intake/increased soft backlog of c $50m across the US, Europe, and Middle East. Orders included night vision goggles, including the NYX binocular family, and the thermal imaging clip-on system, IRIS.
|
Exhibit 1: Soft order book |
|
|
Source: Theon International |
2025 guidance positive
Theon has released guidance for FY25. Revenue is expected to be in the range of €410–430m, with a high degree of confidence given that c 80% of the lower end of the range is covered by the soft order backlog. We note that the low end of €410m equates to c 63% of the total soft backlog, which is similar to the outcome seen in FY24, with sales expected to be c €350m against a soft backlog at the beginning of the year of €540m. This guidance excludes any benefits from the investment into new products in the platform business, which are only expected to accrue from FY26. Guidance for Theon’s sector is that leading ‘mid-20s’ margins will be maintained.
Capex is expected to increase to €20m, from €15m in FY24, to assist growth. This will include investment at Harder Digital, the image intensifier tube manufacturer acquired in 2024. Management also previously announced the exercise of an option with Exosens for additional tubes, which, along with Harder Digital, secures the required capacity of this critical component.
No guidance has provided for FY26, although management anticipates the positive background from growth in defence spend to continue and to be supplemented by investment in new products, such as the ARMED ecosystem, highlighted by a recent contract win. Non-organic means are also expected to form part of the growth strategy supported by the strong balance sheet and we forecast net cash of €80m at the end of FY24.
Forecast updates
For FY24, we have increased our expected revenue marginally to reflect recent guidance ‘towards the upper end’ but have not changed any other expectations. For FY25, we have used the midpoint in revenue guidance suggesting growth of 20%, along with the retention of mid-teen operating margins. For FY26, we have assumed 15% growth supported by the strong soft order backlog of €300m for the year, a market growth CAGR of 11.5% from 2022 to 2027 forecast by Renaissance Strategic Advisors (source: Theon IPO prospectus) and traction from new products, especially within the platform arena.
Exhibit 2: Forecast changes
2025e |
2026e |
|||||
€m |
Old |
New |
Change |
Old |
New |
Change |
Revenues |
382 |
420 |
10.0% |
426 |
483 |
13.4% |
Normalised operating profit (incl. JVs) |
95.9 |
105.2 |
9.7% |
110.9 |
123.8 |
11.6% |
Normalised operating profit margin |
24.2% |
24.2% |
0.0% |
25.0% |
24.8% |
-0.2% |
Normalised PBT |
95.9 |
105.2 |
9.7% |
110.9 |
123.8 |
11.6% |
Normalised basic EPS |
103.8 |
114.0 |
9.8% |
119.0 |
133.2 |
11.9% |
Dividend per share |
34.6 |
38.0 |
9.8% |
39.7 |
44.4 |
11.9% |
Net debt/(cash) |
(104) |
(100) |
-3.4% |
(143) |
(137) |
-4.2% |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Valuation
Peer comparison
We have valued Theon against companies involved in enhanced vision systems and a range of small to mid-sized defence-orientated companies. The first cohort suggests a valuation of €19.6 per share and the second €22.8 per share based on average EV/EBITDA, EV/EBIT and P/E in 2024–26e.
Exhibit 3: Peer-based valuation
Market cap |
EV/EBIT (x) |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
P/E (x) |
|||||||
€m |
2024e |
2025e |
2026e |
2024e |
2025e |
2026e |
2024e |
2025e |
2026e |
|
Theon |
913 |
10.3 |
8.0 |
6.5 |
10.9 |
8.6 |
7.2 |
13.7 |
11.1 |
9.5 |
Enhanced vision systems |
||||||||||
Elbit Systems |
10,694 |
79.9 |
73.7 |
67.8 |
64.1 |
57.2 |
52.9 |
118.0 |
117.3 |
101.6 |
Hensoldt |
3,938 |
14.9 |
12.4 |
10.6 |
10.8 |
9.2 |
8.0 |
22.3 |
18.0 |
15.4 |
L3Harris |
37,698 |
14.1 |
13.1 |
12.2 |
11.1 |
10.4 |
9.9 |
16.2 |
14.7 |
13.3 |
Exosens |
980 |
13.9 |
11.7 |
10.9 |
10.2 |
9.0 |
8.5 |
17.6 |
13.1 |
11.8 |
Teledyne |
19,486 |
21.0 |
19.1 |
17.9 |
17.6 |
16.3 |
15.1 |
22.9 |
20.8 |
19.0 |
Median |
14.9 |
13.1 |
12.2 |
11.1 |
10.4 |
9.9 |
22.3 |
18.0 |
15.4 |
|
THEON EBIT/EBITDA/EPS |
81 |
102 |
120 |
84 |
106 |
126 |
92.6 |
114.0 |
133.2 |
|
Enterprise valuation |
1,217 |
1,328 |
1,462 |
928 |
1,106 |
1,237 |
||||
Cash/(debt)* |
81 |
105 |
149 |
81 |
105 |
149 |
||||
THEON equity valuation |
1,297 |
1,433 |
1,611 |
1,008 |
1,211 |
1,386 |
||||
THEON valuation (per share) |
18.5 |
20.5 |
23.0 |
14.4 |
17.3 |
19.8 |
20.7 |
20.5 |
20.5 |
|
Specialist defence |
||||||||||
Avon Technologies |
510 |
15.3 |
11.8 |
10.1 |
10.9 |
9.3 |
8.6 |
20.3 |
14.5 |
12.3 |
Cadre Holdings |
1,233 |
21.1 |
16.7 |
14.8 |
13.7 |
12.2 |
11.3 |
30.9 |
24.3 |
21.0 |
Chemring |
1,051 |
13.6 |
11.9 |
10.4 |
9.7 |
8.9 |
7.8 |
16.8 |
16.1 |
14.4 |
Cohort |
554 |
18.7 |
17.1 |
14.9 |
15.2 |
11.6 |
10.5 |
25.1 |
21.7 |
18.2 |
DroneShield |
349 |
157.6 |
25.9 |
14.2 |
102.8 |
22.8 |
13.1 |
72.8 |
31.2 |
19.3 |
Electro Optic Systems |
142 |
349.5 |
25.6 |
24.3 |
24.7 |
13.7 |
14.5 |
-12.2 |
61.3 |
15.0 |
Invisio |
1,071 |
37.7 |
29.8 |
23.8 |
32.2 |
25.9 |
21.2 |
52.5 |
40.3 |
32.2 |
QinetiQ |
2,725 |
10.5 |
9.5 |
8.7 |
7.8 |
7.2 |
6.7 |
12.9 |
11.4 |
10.5 |
RENK |
1,908 |
14.1 |
10.9 |
9.3 |
10.7 |
8.6 |
7.4 |
20.3 |
14.3 |
11.9 |
Median |
19.9 |
16.9 |
14.4 |
14.4 |
11.9 |
10.9 |
22.7 |
23.0 |
16.1 |
|
THEON EBIT/EBITDA |
81 |
102 |
120 |
84 |
106 |
126 |
92.6 |
114.0 |
133.2 |
|
Enterprise valuation |
1,623 |
1,716 |
1,719 |
1,209 |
1,268 |
1,359 |
||||
Cash/(debt)* |
81 |
105 |
149 |
81 |
105 |
149 |
||||
THEON equity valuation |
1,704 |
1,821 |
1,868 |
1,289 |
1,373 |
1,507 |
||||
THEON valuation (per share) |
24.3 |
26.0 |
26.7 |
18.4 |
19.6 |
21.5 |
21.0 |
26.2 |
21.4 |
|
Source: LSEG Data & Analytics, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Includes €50m of fixed-term deposits over three months. Prices as of 30 December 2024.
Discounted cash flow
Our DCF valuation uses a five-year forecast followed by a terminal value. We have updated our valuation for the upgrade to forecasts and rolled forward for the new year. We use a WACC of 10% to reflect the Greek market risk premium. We see this as highly conservative at the very least, given that sales to Theon’s domestic market are minimal.
Exhibit 4: DCF valuation (€/share)
Long-term growth rate |
|||||||
1.0% |
2.0% |
3.0% |
4.0% |
||||
WACC |
13.0% |
12.8 |
13.5 |
14.3 |
15.3 |
||
12.0% |
13.8 |
14.6 |
15.7 |
17.0 |
|||
11.0% |
14.9 |
16.0 |
17.4 |
19.1 |
|||
10.0% |
16.4 |
17.8 |
19.6 |
22.0 |
|||
9.0% |
18.2 |
20.0 |
22.5 |
26.0 |
|||
8.0% |
20.5 |
23.0 |
26.6 |
31.9 |
|||
7.0% |
23.6 |
27.3 |
32.7 |
41.8 |
|||
Source: Edison Investment Research
Overall valuation
Our DCF valuation of €17.8 per share increases by 12.6%, benefiting from the upgrade to expectations as well as the roll forward. Our peer-based relative valuation of €21.2 per share improves by a more modest 7.1%, in part reflecting a recent de-rating in the specialist electronics sector, which includes Theon’s enhance vision systems peers.
Exhibit 5: Financial summary
€m |
2022 |
2023 |
2024e |
2025e |
2026e |
||
Year to 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
142.9 |
218.7 |
349.6 |
420.1 |
482.9 |
Cost of Sales |
(92.7) |
(148.5) |
(243.7) |
(285.7) |
(326.0) |
||
Gross Profit |
50.2 |
70.2 |
105.9 |
134.4 |
157.0 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
41.7 |
57.2 |
83.6 |
106.4 |
125.1 |
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
40.2 |
55.7 |
81.4 |
101.7 |
119.8 |
Reported operating profit |
40.2 |
55.7 |
81.4 |
101.7 |
119.8 |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0.0 |
0.6 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
||
Net Interest |
(2.5) |
(6.5) |
(1.5) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
37.8 |
49.9 |
82.9 |
105.2 |
123.8 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
37.8 |
49.9 |
82.9 |
105.2 |
123.8 |
Reported tax |
(7.8) |
(13.8) |
(18.4) |
(23.4) |
(27.5) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
30.0 |
36.1 |
64.5 |
81.8 |
96.2 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
30.0 |
36.1 |
64.5 |
81.8 |
96.2 |
||
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.1) |
(2.0) |
(3.0) |
||
Net income (normalised) |
30.0 |
36.1 |
64.4 |
79.8 |
93.2 |
||
Net income (reported) |
30.0 |
36.1 |
64.4 |
79.8 |
93.2 |
||
Basic average number of shares outstanding (m) |
N/A |
20 |
60 |
70 |
70 |
||
EPS - basic normalised (c) |
|
|
N/A |
N/A |
93 |
114 |
133 |
EPS - diluted normalised (c) |
|
|
N/A |
N/A |
93 |
114 |
133 |
EPS - basic reported (c) |
|
|
N/A |
N/A |
93 |
114 |
133 |
Dividend (c) |
0 |
0 |
31 |
38 |
44 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
77.4 |
53.1 |
59.8 |
20.2 |
14.9 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
35.1 |
32.1 |
30.3 |
32.0 |
32.5 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
29.2 |
26.1 |
23.9 |
25.3 |
25.9 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin (%) |
28.2 |
25.5 |
23.3 |
24.2 |
24.8 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
22.0 |
21.7 |
46.3 |
62.8 |
77.6 |
Intangible Assets |
0.8 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
||
Tangible Assets |
10.6 |
17.4 |
40.6 |
56.6 |
70.9 |
||
Investments & other |
10.6 |
2.9 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
135.4 |
188.8 |
318.1 |
375.6 |
443.9 |
Stocks |
34.0 |
63.6 |
101.7 |
122.2 |
140.5 |
||
Debtors |
68.0 |
46.1 |
73.7 |
88.5 |
101.8 |
||
Cash & short term deposits |
24.0 |
65.6 |
129.3 |
151.4 |
188.2 |
||
Other |
9.3 |
13.4 |
13.4 |
13.4 |
13.4 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(89.1) |
(100.1) |
(117.7) |
(136.4) |
(153.4) |
Creditors |
(24.0) |
(41.8) |
(66.8) |
(80.3) |
(92.3) |
||
Tax and social security |
(6.1) |
(8.0) |
(9.8) |
(12.2) |
(14.9) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(31.0) |
(32.4) |
(28.9) |
(25.4) |
(25.4) |
||
Other |
(28.1) |
(17.9) |
(12.1) |
(18.5) |
(20.8) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(4.0) |
(33.0) |
(33.5) |
(35.6) |
(39.6) |
Long term borrowings |
(3.1) |
(32.1) |
(25.5) |
(25.5) |
(25.5) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(0.9) |
(0.9) |
(8.0) |
(10.1) |
(14.1) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
64.3 |
77.5 |
213.2 |
266.4 |
328.5 |
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
10.0 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
64.3 |
77.5 |
223.2 |
276.4 |
338.5 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
41.7 |
57.2 |
83.6 |
106.4 |
126.1 |
||
Working capital |
(44.1) |
(8.6) |
(29.1) |
(11.9) |
(11.9) |
||
Exceptional & other |
0.0 |
0.4 |
(4.0) |
(5.5) |
(7.0) |
||
Tax |
(3.7) |
(11.3) |
(16.5) |
(21.0) |
(24.8) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
(6.1) |
37.7 |
34.0 |
68.0 |
82.4 |
Capex |
(3.7) |
(7.6) |
(15.0) |
(20.0) |
(20.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(0.3) |
(0.5) |
(20.0) |
(6.0) |
(1.0) |
||
Net interest |
(0.2) |
(2.0) |
0.0 |
1.8 |
2.0 |
||
Equity financing |
0.0 |
0.0 |
93.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
0.0 |
(10.0) |
(14.4) |
(21.6) |
(26.6) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(10.3) |
17.6 |
77.6 |
22.1 |
36.8 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(9.0) |
10.0 |
(0.8) |
(78.4) |
(100.5) |
FX |
0.0 |
(0.4) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
(8.7) |
(6.4) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
10.0 |
(0.8) |
(78.4) |
(100.5) |
(137.3) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
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Research: Consumer
OPAP enjoys a leading and growing position in the Greek and Cypriot gaming markets. The majority of its revenue, from land-based activities, is supported by exclusive prepaid licences. To complement these activities, OPAP has developed a strong presence in the regulated online markets, where, by definition, there is greater competition. Management’s strategy is to grow its customer interactions in both the online and offline worlds, through a combination of rejuvenating its older games and developing new games that appeal to broader demographics, while maintaining its leading corporate and social responsibility credentials.