Last close As at 05/08/2026
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EUR3,986m
Research: Energy & Resources
Hellenic Petroleum reported Q4 adjusted EBITDA of €170m, a 20.9% decrease y-o-y, 7.7% below our Q417 estimates. This reduction was primarily due to lower benchmark margins partly offset by strong operational performance with refining utilisation at 111% (input over nominal capacity), exports (+12%) and a 14% increase in domestic marketing net sales driven by aviation and bunkering. FY17 adjusted EBITDA growth was strong at +14% with record production (15Mt) and sales (16.1Mt). Our last published valuation, using a mix of 2018e P/E, EV/EBITDA and DCF metrics, stands at €9.3/share.
Written by
Hellenic Petroleum |
Q4 strong ops performance, weaker margins |
Q417 results |
Oil & gas |
23 February 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Analysts
Hellenic Petroleum is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Hellenic Petroleum reported Q4 adjusted EBITDA of €170m, a 20.9% decrease y-o-y, 7.7% below our Q417 estimates. This reduction was primarily due to lower benchmark margins partly offset by strong operational performance with refining utilisation at 111% (input over nominal capacity), exports (+12%) and a 14% increase in domestic marketing net sales driven by aviation and bunkering. FY17 adjusted EBITDA growth was strong at +14% with record production (15Mt) and sales (16.1Mt). Our last published valuation, using a mix of 2018e P/E, EV/EBITDA and DCF metrics, stands at €9.3/share.
Year end |
Total revenues (€m) |
Adjusted EBITDA* (€m) |
Adjusted EBIT* (€m) |
Net debt |
Dividend yield** (%) |
12/15 |
7,303 |
758 |
559 |
1,123 |
0.0 |
12/16 |
6,680 |
731 |
522 |
1,761 |
2.4 |
12/17 |
7,995 |
834 |
644 |
1,800 |
4.8 |
Note: *Adjusted numbers account for inventory movements and other specials.**declared
Weak Q4 refining benchmark margins: weak product cracks, increasing oil prices and a widening Brent/WTI spread led benchmark margins lower in Q417 (FCC margins -15% y-o-y, and hydrocracking and FXC -3% y-o-y). Lower margins, combined with FX impacts, led adjusted EBITDA lower, partly offset by…
…strong operational performance: over the course of 2017, Hellenic maintained over-performance relative to benchmarks driven by better crude mix, high utilisation and optionality on feedstock slate. Increased inventory levels have helped increased refining optionality, driving benchmark margin outperformance.
Financing: an 18% reduction in financing costs in FY17, with a reduction in gross debt to €2,675m. YTM bond yields stand at c 3% and management are confident in seeing a continued reduction in financing costs during 2018 debt refinancing.
Valuation and forecasts: our forecasts are currently under review. A full breakdown of our last published forecasts and valuation can be found in our report published in January 2018.
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Disclaimer
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Research: TMT
mVISE has released preliminary 2017 results, showing a 78% increase in revenue (Gesamtleistung, which includes capitalised items) to €16.1m and an 82% increase in EBITDA to €2.0m, both 5% above consensus. Q4 revenues and EBITDA of €5.9m and €1.4m, respectively, reflected robust performances in managed services operations and at integration platform elastic.io, as well as the first-time inclusion of SHS Viveon’s consulting business, which added c €1.0m to EBITDA. The board expects strong incentives for German firms to invest in digital transformation to continue to sustain market growth. New 2020 revenue and EBIT margin targets of €35m and 15%, respectively, imply an organic revenue CAGR of 32% and a 15-20x increase in EBIT, based on 2017 consensus. In our view, upside from the SHS Viveon acquisition, the high operating leverage of the group’s SaaS businesses and the outlook for strong demand lend a high degree of credibility to these targets.