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Research: TMT
XP Power has reported another record quarter for orders as customers in all three sectors seek to secure their requirements in the midst of global supply-chain challenges. Revenue and bookings for the nine months to 30 September (9M21) are ahead of our expectations and we have revised our forecasts to reflect this, with EPS upgrades of 2% in FY21 and 3% in FY22.
XP Power |
Q3 bookings up 73% year-on-year |
Q3 trading update |
Tech hardware & equipment |
11 October 2021 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Analyst
XP Power is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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XP Power has reported another record quarter for orders as customers in all three sectors seek to secure their requirements in the midst of global supply-chain challenges. Revenue and bookings for the nine months to 30 September (9M21) are ahead of our expectations and we have revised our forecasts to reflect this, with EPS upgrades of 2% in FY21 and 3% in FY22.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/19 |
199.9 |
32.3 |
141.4 |
55.0 |
35.2 |
1.1 |
12/20 |
233.3 |
44.3 |
198.4 |
74.0 |
25.1 |
1.5 |
12/21e |
243.7 |
44.8 |
184.4 |
95.0 |
27.0 |
1.9 |
12/22e |
257.1 |
49.3 |
203.7 |
98.0 |
24.4 |
2.0 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Record order intake in Q3
XP reported Q321 order intake of £97.2m, up 73% y-o-y (87% in constant currency, cc) and 16% q-o-q. While the company saw continued strong demand from the semiconductor manufacturing equipment sector, it also benefited from the ongoing recovery in industrial technology and a pick-up in demand from the healthcare sector (where orders were 70% higher than 2019 levels). XP has seen lead times extend due to supply chain issues, which has prompted many customers to seek security of supply, with most recent orders unlikely to be fulfilled until H222. Q321 revenue of £61.6m was down 11% y-o-y or 5% cc, with 9M21 revenue up 4% y-o-y or 12% cc. Q321 book-to-bill was 1.58x and 9M21 was 1.40x. XP closed Q321 with net debt of £25.2m and declared a Q3 dividend of 21p, ahead of our 20p forecast.
Upgrading estimates on strong outlook
The board’s expectations for FY21 are in line with market expectations. Management also sounded a note of caution on the supply chain issues it is facing, including component shortages, COVID-19 restrictions and freight capacity constraints, all of which are putting upward pressure on costs. We have revised up our forecasts to reflect slightly stronger than expected revenue in H221 and a higher order backlog. Our revenue forecasts increase by 1% in FY21 and 2% in FY22 resulting in normalised diluted EPS forecast increases of 2% in FY21 and 3% in FY22. We also tweak up our dividend forecast for FY21 by 1p to 95p.
Valuation: Semiconductor sector drives volatility
The share price rebounded after H1 results were released, reaching 5,630p on 17 August. Since then, the stock has declined 12%, in line with semiconductor equipment stocks, while the FTSE 250 is down 8% from its peak, we believe on inflation and supply chain concerns. On an FY21e P/E basis, XP is trading at a 21% premium to global power-converter companies but a 2% discount to UK electronics companies, with a dividend yield at the upper end of the range. The company generates EBITDA and EBIT margins at the top end of both peer groups.
Changes to forecasts
Exhibit 1: Changes to forecasts
£'m |
FY21e |
FY21e |
y-o-y |
FY22e |
FY22e |
|||
Old |
New |
Change |
y-o-y |
Old |
New |
Change |
y-o-y |
|
Revenues |
241.1 |
243.7 |
1.1% |
4.4% |
252.0 |
257.1 |
2.0% |
5.5% |
Gross profit |
111.4 |
112.6 |
1.1% |
2.3% |
117.8 |
120.2 |
2.1% |
6.7% |
Gross margin |
46.2% |
46.2% |
0.0% |
(1.0%) |
46.7% |
46.7% |
0.0% |
0.5% |
EBITDA |
57.0 |
57.9 |
1.6% |
2.0% |
61.4 |
62.8 |
2.2% |
8.4% |
EBITDA margin |
23.6% |
23.8% |
0.1% |
(0.6%) |
24.4% |
24.4% |
0.0% |
0.6% |
Normalised operating profit |
45.4 |
46.3 |
2.0% |
0.7% |
49.2 |
50.6 |
2.8% |
9.2% |
Normalised operating margin |
18.8% |
19.0% |
0.2% |
(0.7%) |
19.5% |
19.7% |
0.1% |
0.7% |
Reported operating profit |
35.7 |
36.6 |
2.5% |
(2.1%) |
46.0 |
47.4 |
3.0% |
29.4% |
Reported operating margin |
14.8% |
15.0% |
0.2% |
(1.0%) |
18.3% |
18.4% |
0.2% |
3.4% |
Normalised PBT |
43.9 |
44.8 |
2.0% |
1.2% |
47.9 |
49.3 |
2.9% |
9.9% |
Reported PBT |
34.2 |
35.1 |
2.6% |
(1.6%) |
44.7 |
46.1 |
3.1% |
31.2% |
Normalised net income |
36.1 |
36.8 |
2.1% |
(5.6%) |
39.5 |
40.7 |
2.9% |
10.5% |
Reported net income |
28.2 |
28.9 |
2.6% |
(8.3%) |
36.9 |
38.0 |
3.1% |
31.5% |
Normalised basic EPS (p) |
183.6 |
187.4 |
2.1% |
(7.1%) |
201.3 |
207.1 |
2.9% |
10.5% |
Normalised diluted EPS (p) |
180.6 |
184.4 |
2.1% |
(7.1%) |
198.0 |
203.7 |
2.9% |
10.5% |
Reported basic EPS (p) |
143.4 |
147.2 |
2.6% |
(9.7%) |
187.7 |
193.5 |
3.1% |
31.5% |
Dividend per share (p) |
94.0 |
95.0 |
1.1% |
28.4% |
98.0 |
98.0 |
0.0% |
3.2% |
Net debt/(cash) |
24.0 |
24.0 |
(0.1%) |
34.2% |
12.4 |
12.1 |
(2.6%) |
(49.6%) |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
£'m |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021e |
2022e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
109.7 |
129.8 |
166.8 |
195.1 |
199.9 |
233.3 |
243.7 |
257.1 |
Cost of Sales |
(55.1) |
(67.8) |
(89.2) |
(102.8) |
(109.8) |
(123.2) |
(131.1) |
(136.9) |
||
Gross Profit |
54.6 |
62.0 |
77.6 |
92.3 |
90.1 |
110.1 |
112.6 |
120.2 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
29.7 |
33.0 |
41.7 |
49.2 |
44.5 |
56.8 |
57.9 |
62.8 |
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
25.9 |
28.8 |
36.4 |
42.9 |
35.0 |
46.0 |
46.3 |
50.6 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0.0 |
(0.4) |
(0.6) |
(2.8) |
(3.2) |
(3.2) |
(3.2) |
(3.2) |
||
Exceptionals |
(0.3) |
(0.4) |
(3.3) |
(0.8) |
(5.1) |
(5.4) |
(6.5) |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Reported operating profit |
25.6 |
28.0 |
32.5 |
39.3 |
26.7 |
37.4 |
36.6 |
47.4 |
||
Net Interest |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.3) |
(1.7) |
(2.7) |
(1.7) |
(1.5) |
(1.3) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptional & other financial |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
25.7 |
28.6 |
36.1 |
41.2 |
32.3 |
44.3 |
44.8 |
49.3 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
25.4 |
27.8 |
32.2 |
37.6 |
24.0 |
35.7 |
35.1 |
46.1 |
Reported tax |
(5.5) |
(6.3) |
(3.6) |
(7.2) |
(3.2) |
(4.0) |
(6.0) |
(7.8) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
20.2 |
22.3 |
28.8 |
33.9 |
27.9 |
39.2 |
37.1 |
40.9 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
19.9 |
21.5 |
28.6 |
30.4 |
20.8 |
31.7 |
29.2 |
38.2 |
||
Minority interests |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.3) |
(0.2) |
(0.3) |
(0.2) |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
||
Discontinued operations |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
20.0 |
22.1 |
28.5 |
33.7 |
27.6 |
39.0 |
36.8 |
40.7 |
||
Net income (reported) |
19.7 |
21.3 |
28.3 |
30.2 |
20.5 |
31.5 |
28.9 |
38.0 |
||
Basic average number of shares outstanding (m) |
19.0 |
19.0 |
19.1 |
19.1 |
19.2 |
19.3 |
19.6 |
19.6 |
||
EPS - basic normalised (p) |
|
|
105.3 |
116.2 |
149.4 |
176.1 |
144.1 |
201.8 |
187.4 |
207.1 |
EPS - diluted normalised (p) |
|
|
104.3 |
115.3 |
147.0 |
172.8 |
141.4 |
198.4 |
184.4 |
203.7 |
EPS - basic reported (p) |
|
|
103.7 |
112.0 |
148.3 |
157.8 |
107.0 |
163.0 |
147.2 |
193.5 |
Dividend (p) |
66 |
71 |
78 |
85 |
55 |
74 |
95 |
98 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
8.5 |
18.3 |
28.5 |
17.0 |
2.5 |
16.7 |
4.4 |
5.5 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
49.8 |
47.8 |
46.5 |
47.3 |
45.1 |
47.2 |
46.2 |
46.7 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
27.0 |
25.4 |
25.0 |
25.2 |
22.3 |
24.3 |
23.8 |
24.4 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
23.6 |
22.2 |
21.8 |
22.0 |
17.5 |
19.7 |
19.0 |
19.7 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
65.4 |
73.2 |
88.1 |
129.2 |
137.4 |
135.2 |
141.4 |
143.5 |
Intangible Assets |
48.2 |
53.0 |
63.9 |
97.7 |
99.6 |
98.8 |
105.4 |
107.8 |
||
Tangible Assets |
16.1 |
19.1 |
22.5 |
30.7 |
35.9 |
33.5 |
33.1 |
32.8 |
||
Investments & other |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
0.8 |
1.9 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
53.5 |
65.7 |
83.5 |
105.1 |
96.0 |
107.0 |
107.2 |
118.8 |
Stocks |
28.7 |
32.2 |
37.8 |
56.5 |
44.1 |
54.2 |
55.7 |
58.1 |
||
Debtors |
17.5 |
21.5 |
23.8 |
33.0 |
34.8 |
30.2 |
40.1 |
42.3 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
4.9 |
9.2 |
15.0 |
11.5 |
11.2 |
13.9 |
2.8 |
9.7 |
||
Other |
2.4 |
2.8 |
6.9 |
4.1 |
5.9 |
8.7 |
8.7 |
8.7 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(19.8) |
(25.8) |
(25.1) |
(26.8) |
(30.4) |
(34.7) |
(36.9) |
(38.3) |
Creditors |
(14.6) |
(16.1) |
(21.4) |
(22.4) |
(25.2) |
(28.3) |
(30.5) |
(31.9) |
||
Tax and social security |
(1.2) |
(3.3) |
(3.5) |
(4.2) |
(3.1) |
(4.9) |
(4.9) |
(4.9) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(4.0) |
(5.5) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(1.6) |
(1.5) |
(1.5) |
(1.5) |
||
Other |
0.0 |
(0.9) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(0.5) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(10.0) |
(6.2) |
(29.6) |
(70.1) |
(64.1) |
(43.0) |
(36.3) |
(29.6) |
Long term borrowings |
(4.6) |
0.0 |
(24.0) |
(63.5) |
(57.3) |
(35.2) |
(28.5) |
(21.8) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(5.4) |
(6.2) |
(5.6) |
(6.6) |
(6.8) |
(7.8) |
(7.8) |
(7.8) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
89.1 |
106.9 |
116.9 |
137.4 |
138.9 |
164.5 |
175.3 |
194.3 |
Minority interests |
(0.8) |
(0.8) |
(0.9) |
(1.0) |
(0.7) |
(0.7) |
(0.8) |
(0.8) |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
88.3 |
106.1 |
116.0 |
136.4 |
138.2 |
163.8 |
174.6 |
193.5 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
29.7 |
33.0 |
41.7 |
49.2 |
44.5 |
56.8 |
57.9 |
62.8 |
||
Working capital |
(4.6) |
(6.1) |
0.4 |
(21.6) |
10.6 |
(6.2) |
(9.1) |
(3.3) |
||
Exceptional & other |
0.6 |
5.1 |
(6.3) |
3.2 |
(4.4) |
(1.7) |
(6.5) |
0.0 |
||
Tax |
(4.7) |
(4.1) |
(6.1) |
(4.1) |
(4.5) |
(3.3) |
(6.0) |
(7.8) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
21.0 |
27.9 |
29.7 |
26.7 |
46.2 |
45.6 |
36.4 |
51.7 |
Capex |
(5.4) |
(6.8) |
(10.1) |
(15.0) |
(16.3) |
(14.9) |
(21.0) |
(17.5) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(8.3) |
0.1 |
(18.3) |
(35.4) |
0.0 |
(0.5) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
(0.1) |
(0.2) |
(0.2) |
(1.5) |
(2.7) |
(1.3) |
(1.5) |
(1.3) |
||
Equity financing |
0.0 |
0.2 |
(0.2) |
0.6 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
(12.2) |
(13.1) |
(14.2) |
(15.6) |
(17.2) |
(7.3) |
(18.3) |
(19.2) |
||
Other |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(1.5) |
(1.7) |
(1.7) |
(1.7) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(4.8) |
8.1 |
(13.3) |
(40.2) |
9.0 |
23.4 |
(6.1) |
11.9 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(1.3) |
3.7 |
(3.7) |
9.0 |
52.0 |
41.3 |
17.9 |
24.0 |
FX |
(0.2) |
(0.5) |
0.6 |
(2.7) |
1.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
0.1 |
(0.2) |
0.0 |
(0.1) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
3.7 |
(3.7) |
9.0 |
52.0 |
41.3 |
17.9 |
24.0 |
12.1 |
Source: XP Power, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Industrials
Renewi’s H122 pre-close statement contained commentary on firm trading in the Commercial division, slightly tempered by slower acceleration in activity at ATM, but nevertheless pointing to materially higher management expectations for FY22 as a whole. An improving rate of earnings progress and healthy cash flows are two clear positives for investors.