XP Power — Solid H123, outlook for FY23 maintained

XP Power (LSE: XPP)

Last close As at 26/04/2024

GBP10.96

34.00 (3.20%)

Market capitalisation

GBP260m

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Research: TMT

XP Power — Solid H123, outlook for FY23 maintained

XP Power reported year-on-year revenue growth of 30% in H123 as it made good progress shipping from its elevated backlog. As expected, orders declined year-on-year, but the c £250m backlog still provides at least nine months’ revenue visibility. The company continues to invest for the longer term in Malaysia (manufacturing) and the United States (R&D). With no change to management’s full year expectations, we maintain our normalised operating profit forecasts for FY23 and FY24 and nudge up our interest cost forecast for FY23.

Katherine Thompson

Written by

Katherine Thompson

Director

TMT

XP Power

Solid H123, outlook for FY23 maintained

H123 results

Electronic and electrical equipment

1 August 2023

Price

2,040p

Market cap

£401m

$1.29/£

Net debt (£m) at end H123

148.4

Shares in issue

19.6m

Free float

93.7%

Code

XPP

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

3.7

(7.9)

(32.9)

Rel (local)

1.2

(6.0)

(34.4)

52-week high/low

2,680p

1,464p

Business description

XP Power is a developer and designer of power control solutions, with production facilities in China, Vietnam, Germany and the United States, and design, service and sales teams across Europe, the United States and Asia.

Next events

Q323 trading update

10 October 2023

Analyst

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

XP Power is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

XP Power reported year-on-year revenue growth of 30% in H123 as it made good progress shipping from its elevated backlog. As expected, orders declined year-on-year, but the c £250m backlog still provides at least nine months’ revenue visibility. The company continues to invest for the longer term in Malaysia (manufacturing) and the United States (R&D). With no change to management’s full year expectations, we maintain our normalised operating profit forecasts for FY23 and FY24 and nudge up our interest cost forecast for FY23.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/21

240.3

43.8

176.3

94

11.6

4.6

12/22

290.4

38.0

160.1

94

12.7

4.6

12/23e

320.1

36.8

150.2

94

13.6

4.6

12/24e

326.6

43.3

174.7

97

11.7

4.8

Note: *PBT and EPS (diluted) are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

H123 helped by receding supply chain issues

XP Power reported H123 year-on-year revenue growth of 30% (24% constant currency (cc)), adjusted operating profit growth of 45% (36% cc) and normalised diluted EPS growth of 13%. Better factory utilisation and the effect of prior year price increases largely offsetting cost inflation resulted in gross margin expansion of 160bp y-o-y to 41.8%. Net debt at the end of H123 was £148.4m, marginally down from the end of FY22, with net debt/EBITDA of 2.3x from 2.7x at the end of FY22.

Backlog normalising; possible trough in orders

Order intake declined 40% y-o-y and the backlog reduced by c £58m over H123 to c £250m. As supply chain issues have reduced, customers have less need to place orders further in advance; at the same time, some customers are destocking and seeing weaker demand from certain end customers. The company believes that orders from the semiconductor sector have troughed and expects group order intake to improve towards the end of FY23 and into FY24. We maintain our normalised operating profit forecasts for both years and slightly increase net finance costs in FY23; we also introduce FY25 forecasts showing modest growth in revenue and margins. We expect gearing to reduce to 1.7x by the end of FY25.

Valuation: Reduced gearing to improve rating

The share price is essentially flat year-to-date, in line with the UK All Share Index. On a P/E basis averaging FY23 and FY24, XP is trading at a 45% discount to global power solution companies and a 26% discount to UK electronics companies, with a dividend yield at the top end of the range. The company generates EBITDA and EBIT margins at the upper end of both peer groups and has a strong order book. In our view, a return to growth in order intake, further improvements in the supply chain and resolution of the Comet litigation will be key drivers of the share price.

Review of H123 results

Exhibit 1: H123 results highlights

£m

H123

H122

y-o-y

Revenues

160.2

123.6

29.6%

Gross profit

67.0

49.7

34.8%

Gross margin

41.8%

40.2%

1.6%

EBITDA

29.4

20.6

42.7%

EBITDA margin

18.4%

16.7%

1.7%

Normalised operating profit

21.8

15.0

45.3%

Normalised operating margin

13.6%

12.1%

1.5%

Reported operating profit

17.3

(45.2)

-138.3%

Reported operating margin

10.8%

-36.6%

47.4%

Normalised PBT

15.8

13.8

14.5%

Normalised net income, after minority interest

11.6

10.3

12.6%

Reported net income, after minority interest

7.6

(35.6)

-121.3%

Normalised diluted EPS (p)

59.1

52.2

13.2%

Reported basic EPS (p)

38.9

(181.4)

-121.4%

Net debt

148.4

102.0

45.5%

Orders

115.6

193.1

-40.1%

Source: XP Power. Note: Edison normalised measures are equivalent to the company’s adjusted profit measures.

H123 order intake was down 40% y-o-y or 44% cc; Q223 orders were £54.4m, down 40% y-o-y and down 11% q-o-q. Book-to-bill for H123 was 0.72x. Customers moderated their orders as supply chain pressures eased and end demand started to soften in the semiconductor manufacturing equipment and industrial technology sectors. The backlog at the end of H123 was c £250m, down from c £308m at the end of FY22. This currently provides nine to 10 months’ forward visibility, well ahead of the historical four- to five-month range.

H123 revenue increased 30% y-o-y or 24% cc, with Q223 revenue of £82.3m up 33% y-o-y and 6% q-o-q. As supply chain pressures eased, the company was able to ship more of the order backlog, but revenue was also boosted by price increases enacted in 2022, which were applied to orders that have now been shipped.

Gross margin increased 160bp y-o-y to 41.8% (down from 42.5% in H222). The company expects margins to improve in H223.

Operating costs (excluding specific items) increased 30% y-o-y to £45.1m, resulting in adjusted operating profit of £21.8m. The adjusted operating margin increased 150bp y-o-y to 13.6% and declined 310bp h-o-h.

XP reported specific items totalling £4.5m to arrive at reported operating profit of £17.3m. These comprised legal costs for the Comet case (£1.4m), restructuring costs (£1.5m), acquired intangible amortisation (£1.6m), enterprise resource planning (ERP) software implementation costs (£0.2m) and a gain on derivative financial instruments (£0.2m).

Net finance costs increased to £6.0m in H123 (H122: £1.2m) on higher gross debt and higher interest rates. A £0.6m gain on the modification of the revolving credit facility and £1m in lease interest on a US facility were treated as specific items and excluded from adjusted PBT. The effective tax rate on adjusted PBT was 25.3% due to the geographic mix of profits. The company expects the full year rate to be in the range 18–20%.

XP closed H123 with net debt of £148.4m, down from £151.0m at the end of FY22. The company noted that it had started to work down its safety inventory (although some components still have extended lead times) and that there should be further working capital benefit from this in H2 and FY24. Net debt/EBITDA was 2.3x at the end of H123, down from 2.7x at the end of FY22 and well within its banking covenants.

The company announced a Q223 dividend of 19p, in line with last year and our forecast.

Divisional performance

Exhibit 2 summarises revenue by division and geography.

Exhibit 2: Half-yearly performance by division

£m

H123

H122

y-o-y

H123

H122

y-o-y

Europe

Asia

Semi manufacturing

2.5

1.4

79%

Semi manufacturing

8.2

6.9

19%

Industrial technology

35.4

28.2

26%

Industrial technology

7.8

5.7

37%

Healthcare

14.3

9.3

54%

Healthcare

3.2

2.6

23%

Total

52.2

38.9

34%

Total

19.2

15.2

26%

North America

Group

Semi manufacturing

43.7

40.0

9%

Semi manufacturing

54.4

48.3

13%

Industrial technology

25.5

19.0

34%

Industrial technology

68.7

52.9

30%

Healthcare

19.6

10.5

87%

Healthcare

37.1

22.4

66%

Total

88.8

69.5

28%

Total

160.2

123.6

30%

Source: XP Power

Semiconductor manufacturing equipment: revenue was 13% higher year-on-year as orders were shipped from the backlog. Orders declined 67% to £28.1m resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.52x. The company believes that orders troughed in Q223 and should start to gradually improve through H223 and into FY24. SEMI, the semiconductor equipment manufacturing industry organisation, forecasts a decline in front-end equipment sales of 19% in FY23 before a rebound of 15% in FY24, which would imply that the industry is likely to start increasing orders imminently.

Industrial technology: this division saw some normalisation of order intake as well as some destocking by direct and indirect customers. Orders of £51.2m were 38% lower year-on-year. Revenue was 30% higher year-on-year resulting in a book-to-bill of 0.75x. XP expects good revenue performance and improving order intake in H223. The company is bringing on a new design-in distributor in Europe to target new areas.

Healthcare: revenue was 66% higher year-on-year and orders of £36.3m were 38% higher year-on-year. The company expects to make further progress in H223.

Update on Comet litigation

XP filed an appeal to the damages award in April and incurred an additional £1.4m in legal fees in H123. The appeal is expected to be heard in the next 12–18 months. The company is awaiting the outcome of a March 2023 hearing related to the award of legal fees in the damages case.

New CFO appointed

The company has appointed a new CFO, Matt Webb, with effect from 4 September (the previous CFO, Oskar Zahn, left on 31 March, with David Stibbs currently acting as interim CFO). Matt Webb was CFO at Luceco Group from February 2018 to May 2023. Prior to that he held various finance roles at Ferguson between 2006 and 2018.

Net zero transition plan published

Today the company published its net zero transition plan. It had previously disclosed its target to reach net zero by 2040 and the plan details how it expects to achieve this, covering R&D, operations and waste management. The cost of hitting this target is already factored into XP’s medium-term financial strategy.

Outlook and changes to estimates

Management’s full year expectations are unchanged, with a slight weighting to the second half. The company noted that while supply chain disruption had eased, there are still some residual issues. The company continues to expect order intake to improve in the latter part of FY23 and through FY24 as the semiconductor market recovers. As profitability improves and excess inventory is worked down further, XP expects leverage to reduce towards 2x by the end of FY23.

When we wrote on FY22 results, we highlighted the company’s medium-term financial targets (see Exhibit 3). Management has confirmed that it still expects to be able to achieve operating margins in the region of 20% in the medium term. Although it has been below this over the last 12 months, it has achieved this level for short periods in more recent months giving confidence that margins could expand towards this level.

Exhibit 3: Medium-term financial targets

Target

Organic revenue growth

10% through the cycle

Gross margin

>45%

Operating margin

c 20%

Return on capital employed

>20%

Operating cash conversion

>90%

Net debt/EBTDA

1–2x

Organic revenue growth

Gross margin

Operating margin

Return on capital employed

Operating cash conversion

Net debt/EBTDA

Target

10% through the cycle

>45%

c 20%

>20%

>90%

1–2x

Source: XP Power

We have revised our forecasts to reflect higher revenue in FY23 and FY24, based on the higher run rate in Q223. We forecast marginally higher gross profit but, on higher revenue, this results in lower gross margins than previously forecast. For H223, this implies a gross margin of 43.1% on flat revenue half-on-half compared to 41.8% in H123. Our normalised operating profit forecasts for both years are unchanged. We have marginally increased our net interest cost estimate for FY23 reflecting higher H223 net debt. Our FY23 normalised diluted EPS forecast reduces by 1.3% and for FY24 is unchanged. We have also introduced FY25 forecasts, which reflect modest revenue growth and margin expansion.

We have factored in one-off costs of £5.5m for FY23 (restructuring and legal costs) and slightly reduced our forecast for amortisation of acquired intangibles (from £4.1m to £3.5m for FY23 and FY24) resulting in a reduction in reported operating profit and EPS in both years. Our net debt forecasts increase at the end of FY23 and FY24 as we have factored in the cash impact of the one-off items in FY23.

Exhibit 4: Changes to forecasts

£m

FY23e

FY23e

FY24e

FY24e

FY25e

Old

New

Change

y-o-y

Old

New

Change

y-o-y

New

y-o-y

Revenues

309.5

320.1

3.4%

10.2%

316.8

326.6

3.1%

2.0%

333.7

2.2%

Gross profit

134.7

135.9

0.9%

12.7%

142.1

142.7

0.5%

5.0%

150.1

5.2%

Gross margin

43.5%

42.4%

(1.1%)

0.9%

44.8%

43.7%

(1.1%)

1.3%

45.0%

1.3%

EBITDA

65.3

65.3

0.0%

15.9%

71.8

71.8

0.0%

9.9%

74.6

3.8%

EBITDA margin

21.1%

20.4%

(0.7%)

1.0%

22.7%

22.0%

(0.7%)

1.6%

22.4%

0.4%

Normalised operating profit

49.3

49.3

0.0%

15.0%

54.3

54.3

0.0%

10.1%

56.4

3.8%

Normalised operating margin

15.9%

15.4%

(0.5%)

0.6%

17.1%

16.6%

(0.5%)

1.2%

16.9%

0.3%

Reported operating profit

45.2

40.3

(10.8%)

(267.4%)

50.2

50.8

1.2%

26.0%

52.9

4.1%

Reported operating margin

14.6%

12.6%

(2.0%)

20.9%

15.9%

15.6%

(0.3%)

3.0%

15.8%

0.3%

Normalised PBT

37.3

36.8

(1.3%)

(3.0%)

43.3

43.3

0.0%

17.6%

46.4

7.1%

Reported PBT

33.2

26.2

(21.1%)

(186.9%)

39.2

39.8

1.6%

51.7%

42.9

7.7%

Normalised net income

30.0

29.6

(1.3%)

(6.0%)

34.4

34.4

0.0%

16.3%

36.9

7.1%

Reported net income

26.7

21.0

(21.3%)

(205.0%)

31.1

31.6

1.6%

50.5%

34.1

7.7%

Normalised basic EPS (p)

152.7

150.7

(1.3%)

(6.2%)

175.2

175.2

0.0%

16.3%

187.7

7.1%

Normalised diluted EPS (p)

152.3

150.2

(1.3%)

(6.2%)

174.6

174.7

0.0%

16.3%

187.1

7.1%

Reported basic EPS (p)

135.8

107.0

(21.3%)

(204.9%)

158.5

161.0

1.6%

50.5%

173.4

7.7%

Dividend per share (p)

94.0

94.0

0.0%

0.0%

97.0

97.0

0.0%

3.2%

101.0

4.1%

Net debt/(cash)

144.4

152.0

5.3%

0.7%

131.9

139.6

5.8%

(8.2%)

123.7

(11.4%)

Orders

254.1

232.7

-8.4%

-35.9%

283.7

265.3

-6.5%

14.0%

316.6

19.3%

Net debt/EBITDA (x)

2.3

2.4

1.8

1.9

1.7

Source: Edison Investment Research

Valuation

We compare XP Power to peers operating in the global power solutions market as well as UK electronics companies. Exhibit 5 summarises financial performance and Exhibit 6 valuation metrics. XP continues to trade at a discount to both groups on a P/E basis. We note that some peers in the global power converter market are seeing revenue declines this year before a rebound next year. In our view, XP’s exposure to diverse end markets helps soften the impact of semiconductor market cyclicality while still allowing the company to benefit from the structural growth of the sector.

The combination of the Comet damages award and increased capex for the Malaysian facility has pushed gearing to higher levels than historically. A reduction in gearing will be a factor in improving the stock’s rating and we expect the company to reduce net debt/EBITDA below 2x by the end of FY24. Any positive progress in the Comet case (reduction in legal fees owed to the other side or reduction in the size of the damages award) would also be positive for gearing and sentiment.

Exhibit 5: Peer financial metrics

Market

Share

Listing

Revenue growth

EBITDA margin

EBIT margin

cap (m)

Price

ccy

LY

CY

NY

CY

NY

CY

NY

XP Power

401

2,040

GBp

20.8%

10.2%

2.0%

20.4%

22.0%

15.4%

16.6%

Cosel

43,747

1,225

JPY

25.6%

5.5%

2.6%

18.1%

18.3%

N/A

N/A

Delta Electronics

952,577

366.5

TWD

22.2%

9.9%

12.9%

15.6%

16.2%

10.7%

11.5%

Advanced Energy Industries

4,548

121.16

USD

26.8%

-8.8%

8.5%

15.8%

17.8%

12.2%

14.4%

Comet Holdings

1,765

227

CHF

14.1%

-22.3%

22.5%

13.8%

21.0%

9.4%

17.3%

Average power solution companies

22.2%

-3.9%

11.6%

15.8%

18.3%

10.7%

14.4%

Diploma

4,297

3,206

GBp

28.6%

18.3%

8.7%

21.4%

21.4%

18.6%

18.7%

DiscoverIE

764

793

GBp

18.4%

2.2%

3.6%

14.6%

14.6%

11.3%

11.4%

Electrocomponents

3,690

779.4

GBp

16.8%

4.2%

6.4%

14.2%

14.6%

12.4%

12.8%

Gooch & Housego

149

577

GBp

0.6%

12.9%

8.9%

13.6%

15.1%

7.5%

9.1%

TT Electronics

282

159.6

GBp

3.1%

3.1%

0.7%

10.8%

11.7%

7.9%

8.6%

Average UK electronics companies

13.5%

8.2%

5.7%

14.9%

15.5%

11.5%

12.1%

Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv (as at 31 July)

Exhibit 6: Peer valuation metrics

P/E (x)

EV/EBIT (x)

Dividend yield

CY

NY

CY

NY

CY

NY

XP Power

13.64.0

11.7

11.2

10.2

4.6%

4.8%

Cosel

10.6

10.2

N/A

N/A

3.0%

3.1%

Delta Electronics

26.8

22.4

21.4

17.6

2.2%

2.4%

Advanced Energy Industries

26.3

20.4

21.8

17.0

N/A

0.0%

Comet Holdings

48.2

22.5

40.7

18.0

1.5%

1.8%

Average power solution companies

28.0

18.9

28.0

17.5

2.2%

1.8%

Premium/(discount)

-51%

-38%

-60%

-42%

107%

160%

Diploma

26.1

24.6

20.3

18.6

1.9%

2.0%

DiscoverIE

22.2

21.3

15.9

15.2

1.5%

1.6%

Electrocomponents

13.6

12.3

9.9

9.0

2.7%

2.9%

Gooch & Housego

19.5

15.1

15.9

12.0

2.2%

2.3%

TT Electronics

8.3

7.4

8.3

7.6

4.3%

4.7%

Average UK electronics companies

18.0

16.2

14.1

12.5

2.5%

2.7%

Premium/(discount)

-24%

-28%

-21%

-19%

83%

76%

Source: Edison Investment Research, Refinitiv (as at 31 July)

Exhibit 7: Financial summary

£'m

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023e

2024e

2025e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

195.1

199.9

233.3

240.3

290.4

320.1

326.6

333.7

Cost of Sales

(102.8)

(109.8)

(123.2)

(132.0)

(169.8)

(184.2)

(183.9)

(183.5)

Gross Profit

92.3

90.1

110.1

108.3

120.6

135.9

142.7

150.1

EBITDA

 

 

49.2

44.5

56.8

55.5

56.4

65.3

71.8

74.6

Normalised operating profit

 

 

42.9

35.0

46.0

45.1

42.9

49.3

54.3

56.4

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

(2.8)

(3.2)

(3.2)

(2.8)

(4.1)

(3.5)

(3.5)

(3.5)

Exceptionals

(0.8)

(5.1)

(5.4)

(12.6)

(62.9)

(5.5)

0.0

0.0

Share-based payments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Reported operating profit

39.3

26.7

37.4

29.7

(24.1)

40.3

50.8

52.9

Net Interest

(1.7)

(2.7)

(1.7)

(1.3)

(4.9)

(12.5)

(11.0)

(10.0)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptional & other financial

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

(1.2)

(1.6)

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

41.2

32.3

44.3

43.8

38.0

36.8

43.3

46.4

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

37.6

24.0

35.7

28.4

(30.2)

26.2

39.8

42.9

Reported tax

(7.2)

(3.2)

(4.0)

(5.4)

10.6

(5.0)

(8.0)

(8.6)

Profit After Tax (norm)

33.9

27.9

39.2

35.4

31.9

29.8

34.7

37.1

Profit After Tax (reported)

30.4

20.8

31.7

23.0

(19.6)

21.3

31.9

34.3

Minority interests

(0.2)

(0.3)

(0.2)

(0.4)

(0.4)

(0.3)

(0.3)

(0.3)

Discontinued operations

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

33.7

27.6

39.0

35.0

31.5

29.6

34.4

36.9

Net income (reported)

30.2

20.5

31.5

22.6

(20.0)

21.0

31.6

34.1

Basic average number of shares outstanding (m)

19.1

19.2

19.3

19.5

19.6

19.6

19.6

19.6

EPS - basic normalised (p)

 

 

176.1

144.1

201.8

179.4

160.6

150.7

175.2

187.7

EPS - diluted normalised (p)

 

 

172.8

141.4

198.4

176.3

160.1

150.2

174.7

187.1

EPS - basic reported (p)

 

 

157.8

107.0

163.0

115.8

(102.0)

107.0

161.0

173.4

Dividend (p)

85

55

74

94

94

94

97

101

Revenue growth (%)

17.0

2.5

16.7

3.0

20.8

10.2

2.0

2.2

Gross Margin (%)

47.3

45.1

47.2

45.1

41.5

42.4

43.7

45.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

25.2

22.3

24.3

23.1

19.4

20.4

22.0

22.4

Normalised Operating Margin

22.0

17.5

19.7

18.8

14.8

15.4

16.6

16.9

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

129.2

137.4

135.2

150.5

255.1

277.1

280.6

283.4

Intangible Assets

97.7

99.6

98.8

108.8

147.4

147.9

148.9

149.7

Tangible Assets

30.7

35.9

33.5

38.5

91.5

113.0

115.5

117.5

Investments & other

0.8

1.9

2.9

3.2

16.2

16.2

16.2

16.2

Current Assets

 

 

105.1

96.0

107.0

121.7

226.6

200.1

201.2

205.9

Stocks

56.5

44.1

54.2

74.0

114.4

98.4

98.2

98.1

Debtors

33.0

34.8

30.2

30.8

42.4

43.8

44.7

45.7

Cash & cash equivalents

11.5

11.2

13.9

9.0

22.3

14.4

18.8

26.7

Other

4.1

5.9

8.7

7.9

47.5

43.5

39.5

35.5

Current Liabilities

 

 

(26.8)

(30.4)

(34.7)

(49.0)

(106.2)

(104.6)

(104.6)

(105.6)

Creditors

(22.4)

(25.2)

(28.3)

(44.7)

(52.6)

(60.0)

(60.0)

(61.0)

Tax and social security

(4.2)

(3.1)

(4.9)

(2.5)

(4.9)

(4.9)

(4.9)

(4.9)

Short term borrowings

0.0

(1.6)

(1.5)

(1.8)

(2.6)

(2.6)

(2.6)

(2.6)

Other

(0.2)

(0.5)

0.0

0.0

(46.1)

(37.1)

(37.1)

(37.1)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(70.1)

(64.1)

(43.0)

(50.8)

(236.0)

(227.8)

(219.6)

(211.4)

Long term borrowings

(63.5)

(57.3)

(35.2)

(39.9)

(223.1)

(214.9)

(206.7)

(198.5)

Other long term liabilities

(6.6)

(6.8)

(7.8)

(10.9)

(12.9)

(12.9)

(12.9)

(12.9)

Net Assets

 

 

137.4

138.9

164.5

172.4

139.5

144.8

157.6

172.2

Minority interests

(1.0)

(0.7)

(0.7)

(0.9)

(0.8)

(0.9)

(0.9)

(1.0)

Shareholders' equity

 

 

136.4

138.2

163.8

171.5

138.7

143.9

156.7

171.3

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

49.2

44.5

56.8

55.5

56.4

65.3

71.8

74.6

Working capital

(21.6)

10.6

(6.2)

(4.0)

(33.5)

22.0

(0.7)

0.2

Exceptional & other

3.2

(4.4)

(1.7)

(10.9)

(57.7)

(14.5)

0.0

0.0

Tax

(4.1)

(4.5)

(3.3)

(4.2)

(4.1)

(1.0)

(4.0)

(4.6)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

26.7

46.2

45.6

36.4

(38.9)

71.8

67.2

70.2

Capex

(15.0)

(16.3)

(14.9)

(21.9)

(19.4)

(40.0)

(23.0)

(23.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

(35.4)

0.0

(0.5)

0.0

(33.0)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net interest

(1.5)

(2.7)

(1.3)

(0.9)

(5.5)

(12.5)

(11.0)

(10.0)

Equity financing

0.6

0.5

3.5

0.6

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(15.6)

(17.2)

(7.3)

(18.4)

(19.0)

(18.6)

(19.1)

(19.6)

Other

0.0

(1.5)

(1.7)

(1.7)

(5.8)

(1.7)

(1.7)

(1.7)

Net Cash Flow

(40.2)

9.0

23.4

(5.9)

(121.6)

(1.0)

12.4

15.9

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

9.0

52.0

41.3

17.9

24.6

151.0

152.0

139.6

FX

(2.7)

1.7

0.0

(0.8)

(4.8)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

52.0

41.3

17.9

24.6

151.0

152.0

139.6

123.7

Source: XP Power, Edison Investment Research

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by XP Power and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by XP Power. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

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This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by XP Power and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by XP Power. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2023 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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