Last close As at 05/08/2026
USD3.15
▲ −0.09 (−2.78%)
Market capitalisation
USD226m
Research: Healthcare
SIGA recently reported Q221 results, which featured $6.9m of revenue for the delivery of oral TPOXX to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC). SIGA continues to work towards finalizing an order from an additional jurisdiction though timing is unknown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The company has indicated that the size of this order would be similar to the initial orders received from Canada in 2020 and early 2021 (approximately $2.3m in 2020 and $3.4m in Q121).
Written by
SIGA Technologies |
Q221 results |
Financial update |
Pharma & biotech |
10 August 2021 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
SIGA Technologies is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
SIGA recently reported Q221 results, which featured $6.9m of revenue for the delivery of oral TPOXX to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC). SIGA continues to work towards finalizing an order from an additional jurisdiction though timing is unknown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The company has indicated that the size of this order would be similar to the initial orders received from Canada in 2020 and early 2021 (approximately $2.3m in 2020 and $3.4m in Q121).
Year end |
Revenue ($m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/19 |
26.7 |
(15.3) |
(0.15) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/20 |
125.0 |
82.0 |
0.82 |
0.0 |
8.9 |
N/A |
12/21e |
119.2 |
74.2 |
0.74 |
0.0 |
9.7 |
N/A |
12/22e |
124.4 |
78.9 |
0.80 |
0.0 |
9.2 |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Additional international sales order in the works
SIGA is partnered with Meridian Medical Technologies, a Pfizer subsidiary focused on health security, for the international marketing of TPOXX. So far two separate contracts with the Canadian government for the delivery of up to $47m worth (combined) of TPOXX have been signed and the companies are working on other markets. SIGA is currently working on an order from an additional jurisdiction though precise timing is unknown due to COVID-19.
Monkeypox outbreak highlights the need for TPOXX
Three members of one family were diagnosed with monkeypox in the United Kingdom in May and June. Subsequently, a case was diagnosed in the United States in July and made headlines as 200 people were subsequently being monitored for monkeypox (no additional infections have been identified). The source of both outbreaks was Nigeria. SIGA has indicated that the monkeypox outbreak has highlighted the need for national stockpiles among various governments for treatments for orthopoxviruses.
Additional $50m stock repurchase plan
The company has announced an additional $50m stock repurchase plan, which will come into effect once the current $50m stock repurchase plan either expires (as it is scheduled to at the end of 2021) or is exhausted (approximately $42m has been repurchased to date). The new plan would expire at the end of 2023.
Valuation: $949m or $12.65 per share
We have adjusted our SIGA valuation from $957m or $12.58 per share to $949m or $12.65 per share. The decline in the total valuation is due to lower net cash, mainly attributable to the stock buyback, while a lower number of outstanding shares has increased the per-share valuation.
Waiting on US deliveries
SIGA recently reported Q221 results, which featured $6.9m of international revenue for the delivery of oral TPOXX to Canada to PHAC. Total revenues were $8.7m for the quarter. We reiterate the timing of TPOXX deliveries can fluctuate significantly, which has created volatility and lumpiness with SIGA’s revenues in the past. The company continues to expect that US deliveries will be concentrated in the second half of the year due to government procurement and budget schedules as well as due to a new administration, as new political appointments take time to appoint and confirm. On a positive note, the key role of assistant secretary of preparedness and response (ASPR) has been filled with the swearing in of Dawn O’Connell at the end of June following her Senate confirmation on 24 June. With this position now filled the company expects to see some movement on US deliveries.
Exhibit 1: SIGA pipeline
Program |
Region |
Formulation |
Indication |
Status |
TPOXX |
US |
Oral |
Treatment of smallpox in those weighing >13kg |
FDA approved 2018. $461m BARDA procurement contract (part of 2018 BARDA re-supply contract) |
Canada |
Oral |
Treatment of all human pathogenic orthopoxviruses (smallpox, monkeypox, cowpox, vaccinia) in those weighing >13kg |
$33m contract with Public Health Agency of Canada and a $14m contract with the Canadian Department of National Defence. Regulatory approval expected in late 2021/early 2022 |
|
US |
IV |
Treatment of smallpox in those too sick or unable to swallow capsules |
$85m worth of procurement in 2018 BARDA contract. NDA filed in April 2021 |
|
US |
Liquid (powder for re-constitution) |
Treatment of smallpox in people weighing <13kg (children) |
Currently being formulated. Development fully funded by BARDA |
|
US |
Oral |
Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) |
Up to $26m contract with the US Department of Defense signed in 2019 (expanded in 2020) for research in PEP. Two human studies planned, one to evaluate if there is interference with the Jynneos smallpox vaccine and an expanded safety study |
|
EU |
Oral |
Treatment of all human pathogenic orthopoxviruses (smallpox, monkeypox, cowpox, vaccinia) in those weighing >13kg |
MAA submission July 2020. Approval expected end of 2021 or early 2022. |
|
ST-357 |
All |
Oral |
Treatment of smallpox |
Distinct mechanism of action from TPOXX and may be more broadly active. Target conserved in all chordopox viruses (orthopox, molluscum contagiosum, cervidpox). In preclinical testing |
ZEMDRI |
US |
IV |
Biodefense |
Partnership with ZEMDRI’s manufacturer Cipla was announced in March 2021. SIGA will help Cipla obtain a BARDA contract for a biodefense indication |
Source: SIGA Technologies
The company is continuing to work towards sales in additional jurisdictions with an order currently being finalized, though precise timing is uncertain. SIGA is partnered with Meridian Medical Technologies, a Pfizer subsidiary focused on health security with a 50-year history of selling medical countermeasures globally, for the marketing of TPOXX outside the US. Other products marketed by Meridian include an antidote treatment for organophosphorus nerve agents such as Sarin and VX, and a treatment for cyanide poisoning, among others.
So far two separate contracts with the Canadian government for the delivery of up to $47m (both contracts combined) worth of TPOXX have been signed and the companies are working on other markets. We believe SIGA and Meridian are focusing on key US allies, such as Europe, Australia, Japan and South Korea, and that SIGA will seek partnerships for other territories. The company has stated that once EMA approval is obtained (currently expected at the end of 2021 or in early 2022), sales discussions t7yEuropean jurisdictions may accelerate.
SIGA has stated that the recent monkeypox cases in the US and UK have highlighted the need for national stockpiles to treat orthopoxviruses. Three members of one family were diagnosed with monkeypox in the United Kingdom in May and June. Subsequently, a case was diagnosed in the United States in July (the first in the United States since 2003) and made headlines as 200 people were subsequently being monitored for monkeypox (no additional infections have been identified). The source of both outbreaks was Nigeria where the most recent outbreak started in 2017. According to the World Health Organization, nine other central and west African nations have reported outbreaks since 1970. In 2020, 6,200 suspected cases were reported in the Democratic Republic of Congo. As a reminder, TPOXX is approved for the treatment of smallpox in the United States but does show efficacy against other orthopoxviruses like monkeypox. Three of the pivotal trials used for TPOXX approval investigated the treatment of monkeypox in cynomolgus macaques. Also, TPOXX was recently used on a compassionate use basis to treat one of the patients with monkeypox in the UK. Additionally, in July, the company announced a collaboration with Oxford University to treat monkeypox in the Central African Republic.
Exhibit 2: TPOXX animal study data – treatment at day four
Cynomolgus macaques study |
Survival TPOXX |
Survival placebo |
P value |
Study 1 |
80% |
0% |
0.0038 |
Study 2 |
100% |
0% |
0.0002 |
Study 3 |
83% |
0% |
0.0151 |
Source: TPOXX FDA label
Valuation
We have adjusted our SIGA valuation from $957m or $12.58 per share to $949m or $12.65 per share. The decline in the total valuation is due to lower net cash, mainly attributable to the stock buyback, while a lower number of outstanding shares has increased the per-share valuation.
Exhibit 3: SIGA valuation table
Product/program |
Main indication |
Status |
Probability of Success |
Approval/launch/first contract year |
Peak sales ($m) |
rNPV |
TPOXX (US base - Oral) |
Treatment of smallpox |
On market |
100% |
2018 |
113 |
442 |
TPOXX Canada |
Treatment of smallpox |
On market |
100% |
2020 |
11 |
35 |
TPOXX US IV and pediatric formulations |
Treatment of smallpox |
IV (to be filed 2021), pediatric (being formulated) |
60-90% |
2022-2025 |
30 |
36 |
TPOXX US PEP |
Post-Exposure Prophylaxis following exposure to smallpox |
Development |
40% |
2025 |
225 |
264 |
TPOXX EU, Japan, Korea, Australia |
Treatment of smallpox |
Registration |
50% |
2023 |
97 |
74 |
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
851 |
Net cash (Q221) ($m) |
98.49 |
|||||
Total firm value ($m) |
949 |
|||||
Total basic shares (m) |
75.1 |
|||||
Value per basic share ($) |
$12.65 |
|||||
Source: Edison Investment Research
Financials
Following Q221 results, we have kept our forecasts for SIGA largely the same, though we did increase our SG&A estimate by $1.1m in 2021 and $1.2m in 2022, mainly due to a higher run rate. SIGA reported $98.5m in cash at the end of June and is profitable (although profitability for any specific period will depend on the timing of government orders and payments).
SIGA is currently working through a $50m stock repurchase program ,which was announced in March 2020 and runs through the end of 2021. So far, 6.5m shares have been repurchased for approximately $42m, including $6.5m in Q221. The company has announced an additional $50m share repurchase program, which will run through the end of 2023. Shares under the new plan can be repurchased once the current plan either expires or once the maximum amount has been utilized.
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
$000s |
2019 |
2020 |
2021e |
2022e |
||
Year end 31 December |
US GAAP |
US GAAP |
US GAAP |
US GAAP |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
26,742 |
124,959 |
119,172 |
124,411 |
Cost of Sales |
(1,783) |
(14,797) |
(15,696) |
(15,956) |
||
Gross Profit |
24,959 |
110,162 |
103,476 |
108,455 |
||
Research & Development |
(13,303) |
(10,939) |
(10,985) |
(11,095) |
||
General & Administrative |
(13,978) |
(14,722) |
(18,312) |
(18,496) |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(27) |
84,503 |
74,098 |
78,334 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
500 |
85,033 |
74,228 |
78,864 |
Intangible Amortisation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
2,822 |
532 |
50 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
5,091 |
(8,507) |
1,361 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
5,591 |
76,525 |
75,589 |
78,864 |
||
Net Interest |
(15,770) |
(3,017) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(15,270) |
82,016 |
74,228 |
78,864 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(10,178) |
73,509 |
75,589 |
78,864 |
Tax |
2,937 |
(17,167) |
(18,345) |
(18,927) |
||
Deferred tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(12,332) |
64,849 |
55,883 |
59,937 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(7,241) |
56,342 |
57,244 |
59,937 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
81.0 |
79.3 |
75.7 |
75.1 |
||
EPS - normalised ($) |
|
|
(0.15) |
0.82 |
0.74 |
0.80 |
EPS - reported ($) |
|
|
(0.09) |
0.71 |
0.76 |
0.80 |
Dividend per share ($) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
93.3 |
88.2 |
86.8 |
87.2 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
-0.1 |
67.6 |
62.2 |
63.0 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
1.9 |
68.0 |
62.3 |
63.4 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
18,524 |
6,223 |
6,642 |
6,692 |
Intangible Assets |
898 |
898 |
898 |
898 |
||
Tangible Assets |
2,618 |
2,104 |
2,619 |
2,669 |
||
Other |
15,008 |
3,221 |
3,124 |
3,124 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
180,042 |
143,608 |
183,915 |
245,984 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
4,168 |
3,340 |
4,001 |
4,001 |
||
Cash |
160,987 |
117,890 |
157,553 |
219,622 |
||
Other |
14,887 |
22,378 |
22,361 |
22,361 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(91,736) |
(10,484) |
(7,970) |
(7,970) |
Creditors |
(3,054) |
(1,278) |
(675) |
(675) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(80,045) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(8,637) |
(9,205) |
(7,295) |
(7,295) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(9,047) |
(9,555) |
(9,555) |
(8,128) |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other long-term liabilities |
(9,047) |
(9,555) |
(9,555) |
(8,128) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
97,784 |
129,793 |
173,032 |
236,577 |
Minority Interests |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Shareholder equity |
|
|
97,784 |
129,793 |
173,032 |
236,577 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(18,204) |
71,519 |
52,853 |
62,118 |
Net Interest |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Capex |
(29) |
(16) |
(47) |
(50) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(5,674) |
(28,687) |
(13,143) |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(23,907) |
42,817 |
39,663 |
62,068 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(104,849) |
(80,942) |
(117,891) |
(157,554) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exchange rate movements |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
(5,868) |
0 |
(0) |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(80,942) |
(117,891) |
(157,554) |
(219,622) |
Source: Company reports, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Real Estate
As may be expected from Primary Health Properties’ (PHP) robust business model and the essential role that its assets play in supporting the delivery and modernisation of primary healthcare provision in both the UK and Ireland, H121 results provided few surprises. The existing portfolio performed well, and while acquisition activity was light amid a highly competitive investment market, progress was made with rent reviews and asset management projects, forward-funded developments and the recently acquired direct development pipeline.