Exponential growth of programmatic and video ad formats enabled RNTS to grow revenues by 69% in FY16, at the top of its peer set. Management has reiterated its expectation of ongoing strong growth in 2017 and EBITDA profitability. The recent restructuring of the €150m convertible bonds frees the group’s hand to put in place additional financing, required to satisfy earnouts. This would remove an overhang on the shares, which trade in line with peers on FY17e EV/sales multiples.
Written by
RNTS Media |
Programmatic and video power growth |
Full year update |
Software & comp services |
4 May 2017 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
RNTS Media is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Exponential growth of programmatic and video ad formats enabled RNTS to grow revenues by 69% in FY16, at the top of its peer set. Management has reiterated its expectation of ongoing strong growth in 2017 and EBITDA profitability. The recent restructuring of the €150m convertible bonds frees the group’s hand to put in place additional financing, required to satisfy earnouts. This would remove an overhang on the shares, which trade in line with peers on FY17e EV/sales multiples.
Year |
Revenue |
EBITDA |
EBIT |
PBT cont** (€m) |
PBT |
EV/sales |
12/14 |
64.0 |
0.7 |
(1.5) |
(2.0) |
(10.8) |
5.6 |
12/15 |
81.1 |
(13.7) |
(15.2) |
(18.6) |
(40.3) |
4.2 |
12/16e |
170.0/218.1* |
(10.9)/(5.8)* |
(14.4) |
(24.4) |
(33.6) |
2.0/1.7* |
12/17e |
285.0 |
3.9 |
(0.5) |
(4.2) |
(11.2) |
1.3 |
Note: *Pro forma. **PBT is normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, discontinued operations, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Guidance for strong growth reiterated
Pro forma (PF) preliminary results were as indicated in the February trading update. Gross revenues increased by 69% to €218.1m and the EBITDA loss, adjusted for one-off and non-cash items, was €5.8m with the Q4 EBITDA loss close to break-even at €0.5m. Underpinning this increase was the exceptional growth in programmatic trading (+300%) and video ad formats (+280%), which accounted for 59% and 44% of revenues in the year. With the full integration of acquisitions and its focus on mobile, programmatic and video, management expects growth to continue in FY17 and has reiterated its guidance for revenues and adjusted EBITDA profits of above €280m and €3m respectively.
Convertibles restructured
In April, RNTS announced that it had successfully restructured its €150m convertible bonds. This is a significant step for the group as it not only reduces the interest burden of this debt (the coupon will be reduced form 5% to 3%) but, in subordinating any claims to bank finance, it should also help RNTS put in place additional bank financing, and satisfy earnout obligations in relation to Heyzap and Inneractive as well as ongoing working capital requirements. Management is in negotiations on a variety of financing options.
Valuation: More digestible on EV/sales multiples
RNTS is well positioned in the most rapidly growing segments of advertising technology, evident in its pro forma growth rates, which are the highest among its US and European peers. This is reflected in its FY17e EV/gross revenue multiple which, while still above the sector average (0.7x), is in line with peers that are generating similar growth rates (eg The Trade Desk and Taptica), although it still lags these companies on profitability metrics. Putting in place the required financing should lift a significant overhang on the shares, removing another barrier to the shares’ performance.
Convertible restructuring
In April, RNTS announced that it had successfully restructured its €150m convertible bonds. This involved:
■
the reduction in the conversion price from €4.2 per share to €3.0 per share;
■
a reduction in the fixed interest payable from 5% to 3%, and a waiver of the coupon in July 2017; and
■
a subordination of the claims under the convertible bonds to bank lenders in respect of bank financing.
This in effect means a €3.75m saving this year (July’s coupon) and a €3.0m annual interest saving from next year (coupon reduced from €7.5m to €4.5m). The subordination of claims should also make it easier to put in place additional banking facilities. While we forecast that the group moves to EBITDA profitability this year, additional facilities are needed to satisfy earnout obligations in relation to Heyzap and Inneractive, as well as for ongoing working capital requirements.
■
Inneractive was acquired for $46m in July 2016, with potential future earnouts of up to $26m. It grew by 114% last year and has exceeded its earnout criteria. These earnouts are scheduled to be paid annually until 2019. However, management would like to advance the payment of these earnouts to accelerate the integration of the platforms and fully realise their synergy potential.
■
Heyzap was acquired for an initial payment of $20m in January 2016, with earnout and retention payments of up to $25m. While Heyzap’s growth has not been separately disclosed, the combined Heyzap and Fyber division grew by 6% in FY16. Management has disclosed that Heyzap has only partially met its earnout criteria and negotiations with regard to final payment are ongoing.
We had previously assumed that 50% of the Heyzap earnout was triggered (in FY17) and 100% of Inneractive’s (across 2017 to 2019). We are updating this assumption to reflect a €5m earnout payment for Heyzap. Until the group has secured additional financing, we are not reflecting the planned acceleration of the earnout payment for Inneractive. In total, we assume a payment of €15m in FY17.
FY16 preliminary results
Exhibit 1: Pro forma 2016 preliminary results
|
H115 PF |
Q315 PF |
Q415 PF |
FY15 PF |
|
H116 PF |
Q316 PF |
Q416 |
FY16 PF |
Total gross revenues |
49,851 |
30,511 |
48,758 |
129,120 |
|
94,800 |
52,306 |
70,994 |
218,100 |
Revenue growth |
90% |
71% |
46% |
69% |
|||||
Gross profit |
17,158 |
9,419 |
14,123 |
40,700 |
|
28,749 |
15,028 |
18,623 |
62,400 |
Gross margin |
34.4% |
30.9% |
29.0% |
31.5% |
30.3% |
28.7% |
26.2% |
28.6% |
|
EBITDA - continuing operations |
(5,754) |
(5,348) |
(1,098) |
(12,200) |
|
(2,310) |
(2,983) |
(507) |
(5,800) |
Source: RNTS Media. Note: PF figures are on a like-for-like basis and reflect acquisitions as if they had been acquired from January 2015.
Revenues increased by 69% to €218.1m (vs guidance of above 65% growth). Underpinning this growth was the exceptional growth at Inneractive (+114%) and Fyber RTB (+362%) and steadier growth at Fyber/Heyzap (+6%). This performance is a reflection of the strong growth of programmatic trading (+300% y-o-y to represent 59% of total group turnover) and video ad formats (+280% to represent 44% of total group turnover), testament to RNTS’s ability to leverage its video capabilities across the group.
Gross margins at 29% were down on last year’s 32%. This is largely due to mix effects given the exponential growth of the lower-margin Fyber RTB division. In Fyber RTB, gross margins increased by 14.1pp y-o-y to 19.3%, with the platform benefiting from integration into the wider RNTS network.
EBITDA loss (adjusted for one-off and not cash items) was €5.8m, slightly ahead of our pro forma forecast of €5.1m, with Q4 EBITDA close to break-even at €0.5m, as targeted by management.
Summary forecast changes
Management has reiterated its expectation for ongoing strong growth in the current year, guiding to revenues of above €280m and positive EBITDA across the year of over €3m. This is broadly in line with our forecasts, which we leave unchanged at the adjusted EBITDA level (we increase our revenue estimate from €275m to €285m). We have also updated our cost of financing assumptions to reflect the lower coupon rate on the convertibles and have adjusted our estimates for the earnouts as described earlier.
Overall, this means a reduction in our forecast normalised pre-tax loss in FY17 to €4.2m (from €7.9m) and a reduction in our forecast FY17 net debt of €10m to €127.9m.
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
|
|
€'000s |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
Dec |
|
|
Pro forma |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
64,024 |
81,076 |
170,000 |
285,000 |
Cost of Sales |
(39,641) |
(56,739) |
(121,824) |
(208,653) |
||
Gross Profit |
24,383 |
24,337 |
48,176 |
76,348 |
||
EBITDA - continuing |
|
|
685 |
(13,740) |
(10,875) |
3,885 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
(1,546) |
(15,196) |
(14,375) |
(456) |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
(2,292) |
(2,469) |
(3,315) |
(2,700) |
||
Exceptionals |
(3,439) |
(2,915) |
(3,373) |
(1,837) |
||
Other |
(3,021) |
(16,305) |
(2,500) |
(2,500) |
||
Operating Profit |
(10,298) |
(36,885) |
(23,563) |
(7,493) |
||
Net Interest |
(495) |
(3,397) |
(9,998) |
(3,750) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(2,041) |
(18,593) |
(24,373) |
(4,206) |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(10,793) |
(40,282) |
(33,561) |
(11,243) |
Tax |
215 |
2,348 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(1,484) |
(16,245) |
(24,373) |
(4,206) |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
(20,173) |
(37,934) |
(33,561) |
(11,243) |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
114.5 |
114.5 |
114.5 |
114.6 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
(1.3) |
(14.2) |
(21.3) |
(3.7) |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
(1.2) |
(13.6) |
(18.6) |
(3.1) |
|
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
(17.6) |
(33.1) |
(29.3) |
(9.8) |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
38.1 |
30.0 |
28.3 |
26.8 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
1.1 |
-16.9 |
-6.4 |
1.4 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
-2.4 |
-18.7 |
-8.5 |
-0.2 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
173,152 |
160,814 |
215,766 |
228,411 |
Intangible Assets |
159,729 |
157,929 |
211,881 |
224,867 |
||
Tangible Assets |
674 |
2,195 |
3,195 |
2,854 |
||
Investments |
12,749 |
690 |
690 |
690 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
51,423 |
119,737 |
111,004 |
117,310 |
Stocks |
556 |
408 |
408 |
408 |
||
Debtors |
17,246 |
25,214 |
54,400 |
91,200 |
||
Cash |
21,078 |
79,123 |
41,204 |
10,710 |
||
Other |
12,543 |
14,992 |
14,992 |
14,992 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(33,518) |
(47,067) |
(73,974) |
(99,830) |
Creditors |
(24,606) |
(47,067) |
(73,974) |
(99,830) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(8,912) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(19,042) |
(89,253) |
(139,253) |
(139,253) |
Long term borrowings |
(2,869) |
(88,572) |
(138,572) |
(138,572) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(16,173) |
(681) |
(681) |
(681) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
172,015 |
144,231 |
113,543 |
106,637 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(13,723) |
(10,884) |
(13,154) |
(7,058) |
Net Interest |
N/A |
(1,041) |
(9,998) |
(3,750) |
||
Tax |
N/A |
(690) |
0 |
0 |
||
Capex |
N/A |
(6,321) |
(4,600) |
(4,686) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
N/A |
(10,455) |
(60,167) |
(15,000) |
||
Financing |
N/A |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
N/A |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
N/A |
(29,391) |
(87,919) |
(30,495) |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
2,553 |
(9,297) |
9,449 |
97,368 |
|
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(11,803) |
10,645 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(9,297) |
9,449 |
97,368 |
127,862 |
Source: RNTS Media accounts (historical numbers), Edison Investment Research (forecasts)
|
|
Martin Currie Asia Unconstrained Trust (MCP) adopted Martin Currie’s Asia Long-Term Unconstrained (ALTU) strategy in July 2014, aiming to generate returns in line with Asia-Pacific ex-Japan GDP growth. The trust has consistently traded at a wider discount than its peers, but the differential has recently narrowed following the board’s proposal on 4 April 2017 to increase the dividend meaningfully. Based on MCP’s end-FY17 ex-income NAV, the dividend yield would more than double, lifting the yield to c 4.5%. MCP has outperformed its Asian GDP growth benchmark since adopting the ALTU strategy and over shorter time periods, with particularly strong relative performance over the last 12 months, helped by sterling weakness.