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Research: Financials
Secure Trust Bank’s (STB) pre-close trading update indicates that FY19 results should be in line with expectations, despite the economic slowdown dampening loan demand in the second half of 2019. STB highlighted its strong control over risk while interest margins have been stable. The bank is cautiously optimistic about 2020 and is well positioned, with healthy capital, good liquidity and new business pipelines. STB does not envisage material changes to 2020 guidance, and we are maintaining our estimates and 2,428p per share valuation.
Written by
Secure Trust Bank |
Positive pre-close |
FY19 trading update |
Banks |
15 January 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Secure Trust Bank is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Secure Trust Bank’s (STB) pre-close trading update indicates that FY19 results should be in line with expectations, despite the economic slowdown dampening loan demand in the second half of 2019. STB highlighted its strong control over risk while interest margins have been stable. The bank is cautiously optimistic about 2020 and is well positioned, with healthy capital, good liquidity and new business pipelines. STB does not envisage material changes to 2020 guidance, and we are maintaining our estimates and 2,428p per share valuation.
Year end |
Operating income (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/17 |
129.5 |
27.0 |
116.4 |
79.0 |
13.8 |
4.9 |
12/18 |
151.6 |
36.7 |
162.0 |
83.0 |
9.9 |
5.2 |
12/19e |
170.9 |
42.1 |
179.5 |
87.2 |
9.0 |
5.4 |
12/20e |
186.2 |
52.7 |
227.3 |
91.5 |
7.1 |
5.7 |
12/21e |
205.0 |
60.8 |
257.7 |
92.6 |
6.2 |
5.7 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Careful navigation bearing fruit
We believe that STB’s cautious lending stance and business repositioning has helped it deliver solid 2019 numbers (we forecast 2019 pre-tax earnings +16% year-on-year, ROTE of 14.8%) and it is well positioned to adjust if business picks up following the UK general election. The positive tone regarding risk control is reassuring given that the economy was sluggish during the second half of the year. The bank has indicated that impairment rates are running lower than at mid-2019.
Ready for growth
We continue to forecast 17% and 14% growth in loans for STB in 2020 and 2021, respectively. This should help drive underlying pre-tax earnings from the forecast £42.1m in 2019 to £60.8m in 2021. There are still some question marks regarding the UK economy in the short and medium term but, if the economic backdrop is supportive, STB should conceivably be able to deliver on these forecasts.
Valuation: 2,428p unchanged
We make no changes to our forecasts and maintain our fair value at 2,428p per share (based on a dividend discount model), equivalent to a 2020 P/NTA of 1.6x. The bank’s shares are up 33% over the last 12 months, but our fair value estimate is still 51% above the current share price, offering attractive upside potential. The dividend yield of 5.7% (2020e) is above the average of STB’s peers.
Valuation
STB’s share price is up 38% since its 9 October 2019 trough of 1,200p. It is not the only stock to have benefited from the UK general election rebound, but it has been an outperformer. Over the last 12 months, it is the top performer among peers (see Exhibit 1). Clearly, STB’s shares have benefited from the bank’s solid results, the reassuring updates and a cautious, flexible strategy.
Our fair value for STB is unchanged at 2,428p, 51% above the current share price of 1,610p. Our fair value is derived using a dividend discount model. The fair value is equal to 1.6x 2020e P/NTA. We forecast an ROTE of 18.0% in 2020 and 19.8% in 2021, hence a fair value well in excess of tangible book value is fully justified, in our view.
Exhibit 1: Challenger/specialist lender share price performance, %
One month |
Three months |
One year |
Ytd |
From 12m high |
|
Secure Trust Bank |
0.0 |
33.1 |
33.1 |
0.6 |
-6.9 |
1PM |
7.1 |
28.2 |
-12.8 |
8.7 |
-27.2 |
Close Brothers |
-1.6 |
20.3 |
5.7 |
0.1 |
-3.8 |
CYBG |
-19.0 |
38.4 |
-6.9 |
-7.0 |
-21.0 |
Metrobank |
0.6 |
-4.8 |
-89.3 |
-3.9 |
-91.1 |
OneSavings Bank |
-6.3 |
16.0 |
11.4 |
-3.8 |
-9.6 |
Paragon |
-7.4 |
1.9 |
20.7 |
-8.1 |
-10.9 |
PCF Group |
-2.8 |
27.8 |
-2.6 |
-1.4 |
-12.0 |
S&U |
1.0 |
1.9 |
3.4 |
0.5 |
-13.8 |
Average |
-3.6 |
16.2 |
-8.8 |
-1.9 |
-23.7 |
Average ex-Metro |
-4.2 |
19.2 |
2.7 |
-1.6 |
-14.0 |
Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices as at 14 January 2020.
Exhibit 2: Challenger/specialist lender comparative table
Price |
Market cap |
P/E (x) CY0e |
P/E (x) CY1e |
Dividend yield (%) |
ROE last reported |
P/BV last reported |
|
Secure Trust Bank |
1,610 |
297.5 |
9.9 |
9.0 |
5.2 |
11.6 |
1.24 |
1PM |
37.5 |
33.4 |
5.7 |
5.1 |
2.2 |
13.0 |
1.00 |
Close Brothers |
1,599 |
2419.4 |
11.9 |
11.7 |
4.1 |
14.9 |
1.72 |
CYBG |
175.35 |
2518.4 |
7.4 |
7.4 |
0.0 |
9.8 |
0.50 |
Metrobank |
198.1 |
341.6 |
66.3 |
-31.0 |
0.0 |
2.9 |
0.14 |
OneSavings Bank |
416.8 |
1856.6 |
7.2 |
6.7 |
3.5 |
22.3 |
1.50 |
Paragon |
495.2 |
1269.8 |
9.8 |
9.2 |
4.3 |
10.3 |
1.17 |
PCF Group |
34.5 |
86.3 |
11.5 |
9.0 |
1.2 |
11.0 |
1.47 |
S&U |
2120 |
256.9 |
7.0 |
6.3 |
3.2 |
17.6 |
1.64 |
Average |
15.9 |
3.0 |
2.3 |
12.7 |
|||
Average ex-Metro |
8.7 |
7.9 |
2.6 |
14.1 |
|||
STB vs average ex-Metro |
15% |
11% |
95% |
-31% |
Source: Refinitiv, Edison Investment Research. Note: Prices as at 14 January 2020.
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
Year end December |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
2021e |
£m except where stated |
||||||
Profit and loss |
||||||
Net interest income |
92.5 |
114.6 |
133.7 |
148.8 |
162.1 |
177.8 |
Net commission income |
14.5 |
14.9 |
17.9 |
22.1 |
24.0 |
27.2 |
Total operating income |
107.0 |
129.5 |
151.6 |
170.9 |
186.2 |
205.0 |
Total G&A expenses (exc non-recurring items below) |
(64.3) |
(71.3) |
(84.5) |
(97.4) |
(104.2) |
(111.7) |
Operating profit pre impairments & exceptionals |
42.7 |
58.2 |
67.1 |
73.5 |
82.0 |
93.3 |
Impairment charges on loans |
(23.3) |
(33.5) |
(32.4) |
(33.2) |
(31.2) |
(32.5) |
Other income |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Operating profit post impairments |
19.4 |
25.0 |
34.7 |
40.3 |
50.8 |
60.8 |
Non-recurring items |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Pre tax profit - continuing basis |
19.4 |
25.0 |
34.7 |
40.3 |
50.8 |
60.8 |
Corporation Tax |
(5.2) |
(5.1) |
(6.4) |
(7.8) |
(8.6) |
(10.3) |
Tax rate |
26.8% |
20.4% |
18.4% |
19.3% |
17.0% |
17.0% |
Bank tax surcharge |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(1.0) |
(2.1) |
(2.9) |
Profit after tax - continuing basis |
14.2 |
19.9 |
28.3 |
31.5 |
40.1 |
47.6 |
Discontinued business |
123.3 |
3.9 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(Loss)/profit for year |
137.5 |
23.8 |
28.3 |
31.5 |
40.1 |
47.6 |
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Net income attributable to equity shareholders |
137.5 |
23.8 |
28.3 |
31.5 |
40.1 |
47.6 |
Company reported pre-tax earnings adjustments |
7.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
0.0 |
Reported underlying pre-tax earnings (ex discontinued 2015/16) |
27.3 |
27.0 |
36.7 |
42.1 |
52.7 |
60.8 |
Reported underlying earnings after tax |
20.6 |
21.5 |
29.9 |
33.2 |
42.0 |
47.6 |
Average basic number of shares in issue (m) |
18.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
Average diluted number of shares in issue (m) |
18.6 |
18.6 |
18.6 |
18.6 |
18.6 |
18.6 |
Reported diluted EPS (p) |
77.3 |
107.0 |
152.2 |
169.5 |
215.8 |
256.1 |
Underlying diluted EPS (p) |
113.0 |
116.4 |
162.0 |
179.5 |
227.3 |
257.7 |
Ordinary DPS (p) |
75.0 |
79.0 |
83.0 |
87.2 |
91.5 |
92.6 |
Special DPS (p) |
165.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Net interest/average loans |
8.15% |
7.72% |
7.37% |
6.68% |
6.15% |
5.84% |
Impairments/average loans |
2.04% |
2.30% |
1.79% |
1.49% |
1.18% |
1.07% |
Cost income ratio |
60.1% |
55.1% |
55.7% |
57.0% |
56.0% |
54.5% |
Balance sheet |
||||||
Net customer loans |
1,321.0 |
1,598.3 |
2,028.9 |
2,428.5 |
2,841.4 |
3,249.6 |
Other assets |
189.0 |
293.3 |
415.4 |
428.6 |
443.5 |
485.6 |
Total assets |
1,510.0 |
1,891.6 |
2,444.3 |
2,857.0 |
3,284.9 |
3,735.2 |
Total customer deposits |
1,151.8 |
1,483.2 |
1,847.7 |
2,248.6 |
2,583.1 |
3,008.9 |
Other liabilities |
122.2 |
159.3 |
359.5 |
345.3 |
361.8 |
379.4 |
Total liabilities |
1,274.0 |
1,642.5 |
2,207.2 |
2,603.3 |
3,007.4 |
3,419.6 |
Net assets |
236.0 |
249.1 |
237.1 |
253.7 |
277.5 |
315.6 |
Minorities |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Shareholders' equity |
236.0 |
249.1 |
237.1 |
253.7 |
277.5 |
315.6 |
Reconciliation of movement in equity |
||||||
Opening shareholders' equity |
141.2 |
236.0 |
249.1 |
237.1 |
253.7 |
277.5 |
Profit in period |
137.5 |
23.8 |
28.1 |
31.5 |
40.1 |
55.1 |
Other comprehensive income |
(1.8) |
2.9 |
(25.8) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Ordinary dividends |
(13.1) |
(14.0) |
(14.8) |
(15.5) |
(16.3) |
(17.1) |
Special dividend |
(30.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Share based payments |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Issue of shares |
2.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Share issuance costs |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Closing shareholders' equity |
236.0 |
249.1 |
237.1 |
253.7 |
277.5 |
315.6 |
Other selected data and ratios |
||||||
Period end shares in issue (m) |
18.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
NAV per share (p) |
1,277 |
1,348 |
1,283 |
1,424 |
1,840 |
1,878 |
Tangible NAV per share (p) |
1,229 |
1,292 |
1,230 |
1,364 |
1,779 |
1,828 |
Return on average equity |
72.9% |
9.8% |
11.6% |
12.6% |
13.3% |
13.9% |
Normalised return on average equity |
9.9% |
8.9% |
12.8% |
14.1% |
17.3% |
18.9% |
Return on average TNAV |
10.3% |
9.3% |
13.4% |
14.8% |
18.0% |
19.8% |
Average loans |
1,134.6 |
1,484.6 |
1,826.4 |
2,253.5 |
2,442.5 |
2,635.0 |
Average deposits |
1,067.5 |
1,321.7 |
1,655.4 |
2,024.8 |
2,234.6 |
2,427.8 |
Loans/deposits |
114.7% |
107.8% |
109.8% |
108.0% |
110.0% |
108.0% |
Risk exposure |
1,264.0 |
1,446.1 |
1,824.6 |
2,175.8 |
2,522.0 |
2,878.9 |
Common equity tier 1 ratio |
18.0% |
16.5% |
13.8% |
12.1% |
11.2% |
11.1% |
|
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research |
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