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Borsa Italia Book — Positive H118 results

Borsa Italia Book — Positive H118 results

Healthperm’s H118 results showed strong revenue growth of 188% and a 281% rise in gross profit. Revenue was boosted by a 188% rise in the number of candidates deployed and gross profit has benefited from an improved mix. The company remains loss making as its ramp-up phase continues but the outlook is positive, supported by a good run of contract wins and entry into new markets. We have maintained our estimates and valuation.

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

Healthperm Resourcing

Positive H118 results

H1 results

Industrial support services

4 October 2018

Price

130.5p

Market cap

£11m

Net debt (£m) at 30 June 2018

3.6

Shares in issue

8.7m

Free float

15.3%

Code

HPR

Primary exchange

NEX (Growth)

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

0.4

0.4

(36.3)

Rel (local)

0.7

1.6

(37.0)

52-week high/low

205p

130p

Business description

Healthperm Resourcing is a healthcare recruitment business, established to address the significant shortfalls in healthcare professionals in the UK and Ireland and the Middle East (61/39% of 2017 revenues). It supplies permanent employees, sourced mainly from the Philippines.

Next events

FY18 pre-close

February 2019 (tbc)

Analyst

Robert Plant

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Healthperm Resourcing is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Healthperm’s H118 results showed strong revenue growth of 188% and a 281% rise in gross profit. Revenue was boosted by a 188% rise in the number of candidates deployed and gross profit has benefited from an improved mix. The company remains loss making as its ramp-up phase continues but the outlook is positive, supported by a good run of contract wins and entry into new markets. We have maintained our estimates and valuation.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/16

0.0

(1.8)

(20.8)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/17

0.2

(1.9)

(23.9)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/18e

0.9

(2.3)

(26.3)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/19e

2.8

(0.6)

(7.3)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

H118 saw strong revenue and gross profit growth

Healthperm saw a 188% rise in candidates deployed in H118, which led to an equivalent rise in revenue to £297k. Gross profit rose even faster, by 281%, which reflects a more profitable mix. The company is still in a ramp-up phase so made a loss before taxation of £1,364k compared to a loss of £840k last year. Cash conversion improved, due mainly to better working capital, and we think as Healthperm grows, its position with customers and suppliers will strengthen, and its working capital will probably improve further.

Positive outlook supported by contract wins

Healthperm had a good level of new contracts wins covering nine hospitals in H118, including with Medway, its largest ever contract. The company has also entered Ireland, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait for the first time. The tone of the outlook was encouraging, saying ‘the board anticipates the group will agree additional mandates with NHS hospitals in the UK and healthcare organisations in the Middle East for the recruitment of nurses, doctors and other allied healthcare professionals’.

A growing shortage of healthcare professionals

We think the structural outlook for Healthperm is good as its main markets of the UK and the Middle East have a growing shortage of healthcare professionals. We note that the UK’s Migration Advisory Committee last month recommended that after Brexit the UK no longer should give favourable treatment to EU immigrants and we think this could favour Healthperm, which recruits from outside the EU.

Valuation: DCF gives 121% upside

Our preferred measure for valuing companies is a DCF. We think this is particularly useful in the case of Healthperm, given it is likely to be loss making until 2019, but thereafter profits should rise sharply. Our base case DCF ascribes a value of 288p for Healthperm, which represents 121% upside to the current share price. Our DCF uses a WACC of 8.9% and a terminal growth rate of 1.0%.

H118 results show strong revenue growth

In H118 revenue grew by 188% due to an equivalent rise in the number of candidates deployed, from 50 to 144 (Exhibit 1). Gross profit increased by 281%, and we think the company can continue to improve its pricing as it speeds up the process of placing nurses through better selection and training. The operating loss widened by 54% we think as Healthperm continues to invest for growth.

Exhibit 1: Healthperm’s P&L results

£000s

H117

H118

% change

Revenue

103

297

188%

Gross profit

62

236

281%

Operating loss

(792)

(1,217)

54%

Loss before taxation

(840)

(1,364)

62%

EPS (p)

(9.12)

(15.75)

73%

Source: Healthperm

Expansion in all Healthperm’s markets

All three of Healthperm’s markets showed strong growth (Exhibit 2). The UK reported the fastest expansion where we think it has benefited from a good level of new contract wins.

Exhibit 2: Healthperm’s revenue by geography

£000s

H117

H118

% change

UK

57

204

258%

UAE

15

30

100%

Philippines

31

63

103%

Total

103

297

188%

Source: Healthperm

UK (69% of H118 revenue)

In August Healthperm won its largest UK contract, with Medway NHS Foundation Trust, and the statement said that in the remainder of 2018, the company will start recruitment for an initial 400 nurses. New recruitment contracts were also signed with East & North Hertfordshire NHS Trust, Sherwood Forest Foundation Trust and Buckinghamshire Healthcare NHS Trust, covering nine hospitals.

The Objective Structured Clinical Examination pass rate for Healthperm candidates was 96% vs the UK national average of 56%, which we think is an important competitive advantage. Healthperm also signed its first recruitment contract in Ireland.

Middle East (10% of H118 revenue)

Healthperm’s language training centre saw students increase from eight to 158, which we think should support future growth in the UK, where some of these students will want to redeploy. First time recruitment contracts were signed in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. We think Saudi Arabia, in particular, could be a large opportunity for Healthperm given that its population is 33m, whereas the UAE, which is Healthperm’s current base in the Middle East, has a population of nine million.

Philippines (21% of H118 revenue)

The Philippines is Healthperm’s main country for the recruitment of healthcare professionals and we think it reassuring the company was awarded an upgraded recruitment licence with the Philippine Overseas Employment Administration. Healthperm has signed partnership agreements in India and the Caribbean which will diversify its currently reliance on the Philippines.

Cash flow and balance sheet

Healthperm’s cash outflow improved slightly in H118 (Exhibit 3). Although the loss before taxation increased, working capital was better. We believe that as Healthperm becomes larger it can negotiate better terms with customers and suppliers.

Exhibit 3: Healthperm’s cash flow before financing

£000s

H117

H118

% change

Loss before taxation

(840)

(1,364)

62%

Depreciation and amortisation

36

39

8%

Share-based payments

118

n/a

Interest

48

147

206%

Sub-total

(756)

(1,060)

40%

Receivables

(192)

(111)

(42%)

Payables

88

401

356%

Sub-total

(860)

(770)

(10%)

Capex

(3)

(29)

867%

Total

(863)

(799)

(7%)

Source: Healthperm

To fund the cash outflow net debt increased from £2.6m at the end of FY17 to £3.6m, largely financed by the loan note facility. A total of £3.3m out of the £5.0m loan note facility has been drawn. The loan notes are provided by Gulf Healthcare Holdings and are repayable at the end of 2019.

Valuation

Our preferred measure for valuing companies is a DCF. We think this is particularly useful for valuing Healthperm as the company is likely to be loss making during 2019, but we then expect a substantial increase in profits as revenues ramp up. DCFs also lend themselves to valuing business services companies, which are people rather than asset based and are usually highly cash generative. Our base case valuation of Healthperm is 288p, which represents 121% upside to the current share price of 130.5p (Exhibit 4). Our DCF uses a WACC of 8.9% and a terminal growth rate of 1.0%.

Exhibit 4: DCF valuation

£000s

Total discounted cash flows (FY19e to FY29e)

12,254

Discounted terminal value

17,742

Total EV

29,997

Net debt (FY18)

5,068

Equity value

24,928

Number of shares

8,658,181

Value per share (£)

2.88

£000s

Total discounted cash flows (FY19e to FY29e)

Discounted terminal value

Total EV

Net debt (FY18)

Equity value

Number of shares

Value per share (£)

12,254

17,742

29,997

5,068

24,928

8,658,181

2.88

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 5: Financial summary

December year end

£'000s

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

2020e

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Restated

Revenue

 

 

2

244

918

2,813

4,225

Cost of Sales

(1)

(65)

(239)

(660)

(1,017)

Gross Profit

1

179

679

2,152

3,208

EBITDA

 

 

(1,683)

(1,712)

(1,837)

(142)

825

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

(1,753)

(1,781)

(1,906)

(226)

710

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(1,394)

0

0

0

0

Other

(1,754)

(1,960)

(2,585)

(2,378)

(2,497)

Operating Profit

(3,147)

(1,781)

(1,906)

(226)

710

Net Interest

(36)

(141)

(370)

(410)

(501)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(1,789)

(1,922)

(2,276)

(636)

209

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(3,183)

(1,922)

(2,276)

(636)

209

Defered tax

72

(147)

0

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(1,717)

(2,069)

(2,276)

(636)

209

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

(3,111)

(2,069)

(2,276)

(636)

209

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

8.3

8.7

8.7

8.7

8.7

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

(20.8)

(23.9)

(26.3)

(7.3)

2.4

EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p)

 

(20.8)

(23.9)

(26.3)

(7.3)

2.4

EPS - (IFRS) (p)

 

 

(37.6)

(23.9)

(26.3)

(7.3)

2.4

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

50.0

73.4

73.9

76.5

75.9

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

19.5

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

16.8

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

431

211

220

248

291

Intangible Assets

270

201

201

201

201

Tangible Assets

1

10

19

47

90

Investments

160

0

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

 

106

301

979

2,881

4,299

Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

Debtors

84

245

922

2,824

4,242

Cash

22

56

57

57

57

Other

0

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(727)

(463)

(1,742)

(5,337)

(8,017)

Creditors

(727)

(463)

(1,742)

(5,337)

(8,017)

Short term borrowings

0

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(412)

(2,711)

(5,156)

(6,017)

(6,116)

Long term borrowings

(371)

(2,680)

(5,125)

(5,986)

(6,085)

Other long term liabilities

(41)

(31)

(31)

(31)

(31)

Net Assets

 

 

(602)

(2,662)

(5,699)

(8,225)

(9,543)

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(1,517)

(2,123)

(2,066)

(423)

444

Net Interest

0

0

(370)

(410)

(501)

Tax

0

0

0

0

0

Capex

0

(9)

(9)

(28)

(42)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

0

Financing

0

0

0

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(1,517)

(2,132)

(2,445)

(861)

(99)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

804

349

2,624

5,068

5,929

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

Other

1,972

(143)

1

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

349

2,624

5,068

5,929

6,028

Source: Healthperm (historics), Edison Investment Research (forecasts)

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Healthperm Resourcing and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Pty Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Healthperm Resourcing and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: Consumer

Borussia Dortmund — Asset value growth to the fore

PPHE continues to please, with resilient H1 operating results complemented by first-time disclosure of EPRA reporting, which highlights its real estate business with EPRA NAV of £24.21 at June 2018, significantly ahead of the current share price. A fine record of value creation (21% CAGR in NAV over the seven years to end-2017, as newly presented) should underpin the company’s ability to leverage on its assets, in addition to reinvestment potential from £152m excess cash. H1 saw maintained like-for-like EBITDA against a “very strong” comparative in London, PPHE’s major market, and renovations in the Netherlands. Encouraging trading in its seasonally stronger H2 supports guidance that 2018 expectations are unchanged. The interim dividend is raised by 45%.

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