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Research: Industrials
MMH has announced a tidying up of its dealership portfolio with six underperforming sites to be closed by the end of the year. While there will be exceptional closure costs of c£6m, the closures will eliminate c£1.3m of operational losses expected in 2017. Although £4m of the cost is cash this will flow out over a number of years against an onerous lease, and the disposal of Marshall Leasing, which has yet to complete, significantly improves the balance sheet. Our underlying numbers remain unchanged and it should be noted that management has not needed to make a trading update despite persistent new car market weakness. The elimination of losses and manufacturer responsiveness to the weaker demand appear to be setting a solid foundation for 2018 numbers.
Written by
Marshall Motor Holdings |
Polishing the portfolio |
Portfolio restructuring |
Automotive retailers |
21 November 2017 |
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Business description
Analysts
Marshall Motor Holdings is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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MMH has announced a tidying up of its dealership portfolio with six underperforming sites to be closed by the end of the year. While there will be exceptional closure costs of c£6m, the closures will eliminate c£1.3m of operational losses expected in 2017. Although £4m of the cost is cash this will flow out over a number of years against an onerous lease, and the disposal of Marshall Leasing, which has yet to complete, significantly improves the balance sheet. Our underlying numbers remain unchanged and it should be noted that management has not needed to make a trading update despite persistent new car market weakness. The elimination of losses and manufacturer responsiveness to the weaker demand appear to be setting a solid foundation for 2018 numbers.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/15 |
1,232.8 |
15.8 |
15.8 |
2.98 |
10.1 |
1.9 |
12/16 |
1,899.4 |
25.4 |
26.2 |
5.50 |
6.1 |
3.5 |
12/17e |
2,271.1 |
28.3 |
28.6 |
6.45 |
5.6 |
4.1 |
12/18e |
2,296.5 |
28.9 |
29.2 |
6.90 |
5.4 |
4.3 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items.
MMH has announced it intends to close five franchised dealerships and one used car centre, following discussions with the brand partners. Honda Mountsorrel, Nissan Boston and Vauxhall Welwyn Garden City have relatively small markets and close to existing group dealerships of the same franchise, which should assist customer retention. The used car centre in Oxford shares a subscale, high fixed cost site with the group’s Maserati dealership. The other franchise affected is Citroen Cambridge, MMH’s last new car outlet for the manufacturer although it retains authorised repairer status in the city. Combined turnover in 2017 is likely to be c£40m generating a pre-tax loss of £1.3m before overhead allocation.
Closure costs should also be partially offset by freehold site disposals and the realisation of working capital and disposal of stock held in the dealerships. The closure costs will be treated as a non-underlying item in FY17 results. The changes once again show the proactive nature of management in improving returns and protecting financial performance in the more challenging market environment.
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Disclaimer
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Research: Real Estate
Regional REIT (RGL) is trading in line with management’s expectations, is seeing a good level of interest in both its office and industrial properties, and has continued to be active in letting since 30 June. As a result, it expects occupancy rates to increase across the portfolio in the near term, supporting income from the growing portfolio (c £650m in assets). Lettings since the end of September indicate progress towards the 85% occupancy rate that we target for end-2017 and then towards 90% by the end of 2018. On this basis, RGL’s highly attractive and growing dividend is fully covered by forecast earnings, while its regional focus should prove more resilient to macroeconomic headwinds than London real estate.