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Research: Healthcare
Scandion Oncology has announced the extension of dose-escalation in the Phase Ib PANTAX trial, investigating the company’s add-on chemotherapy, SCO-101, in the treatment of metastatic pancreatic cancer (mPC). The observation of better-than-expected tolerability in patients has led Scandion to now pursue higher dosing than previously expected. As a result, top-line data from PANTAX are now expected in H123 (previously Q222). We view this as a positive development for Scandion, as the primary endpoints for the PANTAX trial are safety and tolerability. Additionally, if proof-of-concept data from the Phase II CORIST study in metastatic colorectal cancer (expected Q322) prove positive, this should provide encouragement for the survival and response rate based secondary endpoints of PANTAX, in our view. We value Scandion Oncology at SEK586.5m or SEK14.4 per share.
Written by
Scandion Oncology |
PANTAX dosing schedule expanded |
Clinical trial update |
Pharma and biotech |
17 August 2022 |
Share price performance
Business description
Analysts
Scandion Oncology is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Scandion Oncology has announced the extension of dose-escalation in the Phase Ib PANTAX trial, investigating the company’s add-on chemotherapy, SCO-101, in the treatment of metastatic pancreatic cancer (mPC). The observation of better-than-expected tolerability in patients has led Scandion to now pursue higher dosing than previously expected. As a result, top-line data from PANTAX are now expected in H123 (previously Q222). We view this as a positive development for Scandion, as the primary endpoints for the PANTAX trial are safety and tolerability. Additionally, if proof-of-concept data from the Phase II CORIST study in metastatic colorectal cancer (expected Q322) prove positive, this should provide encouragement for the survival and response rate based secondary endpoints of PANTAX, in our view. We value Scandion Oncology at SEK586.5m or SEK14.4 per share.
Year end |
Revenue (DKKm) |
PBT* (DKKm) |
EPS* |
DPS |
DPS |
Yield |
12/20 |
1.0 |
(21.5) |
(0.53) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/21 |
0.8 |
(57.2) |
(1.61) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/22e |
0.8 |
(60.1) |
(1.70) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/23e |
0.8 |
(114.7) |
(3.40) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
As a reminder, SCO-101 is a first-in-class chemosensitiser, a class of compounds that when used in combination with traditional chemotherapy agents may re-sensitise resistant cancer cells to treatment. The PANTAX study (NCT04652206) is a Phase Ib, open-label, dose-escalation (3+3) study, investigating the use of SCO-101 in the treatment of mPC. The primary aim of the study is to establish the safety/tolerability profile and maximum tolerated dose of SCO-101, in combination with nab-paclitaxel and gemcitabine. Assuming positive results from PANTAX, management intends to initiate randomised Phase II trials in mPC in 2023, however the new dose-escalation extension may delay this schedule, in our view.
There remain significant unmet medical needs in the treatment of mPC. The disease accounts for only 3% of all cancers but 7% of cancer-related deaths, due to the disease’s invasive and often incurable nature. The pancreatic cancer treatment market is estimated to reach $5.3bn by 2028 (source: EvaluatePharma) and we note that many standard pancreatic cancer treatments are already off-patent (eg nab-paclitaxel, gemcitabine). If SCO-101 can restore clinical response to these chemotherapies in resistant patients, we see a sizable opportunity for the company in this market. For more information on Scandion Oncology, see our recent initiation report.
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Research: Financials
Secure Trust Bank (STB) reported H122 PBT of £24.7m, including an £8.1m gain on the disposal of its Debt Managers Services (DMS) unit. Reported return on equity (ROE) was 12.5%, and the underlying ROE was 8.3%. Pre-provision operating profit was up 22% y o y driven by a 23% increase in core loans. Underlying earnings were down 52% y-o-y as impairments returned to a normal level (annualised 1.4% of loans in H122) after the unusually large COVID-19 related loan reversals in H121. STB’s capital position remains strong (CET1 14.0%), but we expect the deteriorating UK economic outlook to lead STB to pare down its balance sheet expansion. We are reducing our forecasts to reflect this slowdown: we have cut EPS in FY22e by 6% and FY23e by 12%. Despite the cut, momentum is still good; we forecast a 13% increase in loans in FY23 with a 29% increase in underlying earnings and 11.6% ROE. We have reduced our fair value (FV) from 2,491p to 2,407p, as we have cut our sustainable ROE assumption from 13.5% to 13% due to macro concerns.