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Osirium’s FY17 results confirmed that it is growing bookings for its subscription-based software in line with expectations and has kept tight control over costs. Funds raised in March should enable the company to accelerate investment in product development and sales and marketing to take advantage of the greenfield opportunity for PAM software within the mid-market.
Osirium Technologies |
On track for continued strong bookings growth |
FY17 results |
Software & comp services |
27 June 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Osirium Technologies is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Osirium’s FY17 results confirmed that it is growing bookings for its subscription-based software in line with expectations and has kept tight control over costs. Funds raised in March should enable the company to accelerate investment in product development and sales and marketing to take advantage of the greenfield opportunity for PAM software within the mid-market.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
EBITDA* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
EV/Sales |
12/16** |
0.48 |
(1.14) |
(12.4) |
0.0 |
N/A |
39.2 |
12/17 |
0.65 |
(1.61) |
(18.1) |
0.0 |
N/A |
28.9 |
12/18e |
0.90 |
(1.85) |
(18.4) |
0.0 |
N/A |
20.8 |
12/19e |
1.40 |
(1.65) |
(17.4) |
0.0 |
N/A |
13.3 |
Note: *EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **14-month period ended 31 December 2016.
Strong growth in FY17 revenues and bookings
Osirium reported FY17 revenues marginally ahead of our forecast (+62% vs CY16), and due to lower than expected operating costs, reported a £0.3m smaller EBITDA loss versus our forecast. Bookings received were substantially in line with our forecast, increasing 123% from the same period a year ago. The company ended the year with a cash position of £1.0m and, in March, raised gross proceeds of £4.2m from the issue of 3.14m shares at 134p per share.
Building the pipeline
The company is making good progress with its land and expand strategy: in FY17 it achieved a 100% renewal rate and made 11 upsells. In addition, it won 16 new customers, to close the year with 30 customers. Management confirmed that new customer wins have continued post-year-end. The launch of PxM Express, Osirium’s first freemium product, is now being used by 15 customers and has the potential to drive new customer wins. Channel partners have started making a significant contribution to bookings and will be the key to international growth for Osirium.
Forecasts and valuation: Bookings the key driver
We have revised our forecasts to reflect a faster hiring rate as well as the recent fundraising. We have conservatively assumed that this does not accelerate revenue growth but should help the company maintain strong bookings growth in the medium term. As an early-stage company showing revenue growth ahead of its peer group, Osirium is trading at a premium to peers on an EV/sales basis. We have performed a reverse DCF to analyse the assumptions factored into the current share price, using a WACC of 11% and a terminal growth rate of 3%. We estimate that the share price is discounting average bookings growth of 26% for FY21–27, break-even EBITDA in FY23, average EBITDA margins of 16% for FY21–27 and a terminal EBITDA margin of 40%. In our view, bookings growth will be the key driver of share price performance.
Review of FY17 results
Exhibit 1: FY17 results highlights
£000s |
FY17e |
FY17a |
Difference |
|
Bookings |
881.6 |
876.3 |
(0.6%) |
|
Revenues |
616.7 |
647.6 |
5.0% |
|
EBITDA |
(1,902.5) |
(1,609.4) |
(15.4%) |
|
EBITDA margin |
-308.5% |
-248.5% |
(19.4%) |
|
Normalised operating profit |
(2,589.2) |
(2,296.8) |
(11.3%) |
|
Normalised operating profit margin |
-419.8% |
-354.7% |
65.2% |
|
Reported operating profit |
(2,909.2) |
(2,296.8) |
(21.0%) |
|
Reported operating margin |
-471.7% |
-354.7% |
117.0% |
|
Normalised PBT |
(2,586.2) |
(2,292.6) |
(11.4%) |
|
Reported PBT |
(2,906.2) |
(2,292.6) |
(21.1%) |
|
Normalised net income |
(2,198.3) |
(1,883.2) |
(14.3%) |
|
Reported net income |
(2,499.3) |
(1,883.2) |
(24.7%) |
|
Normalised basic EPS |
(21.15) |
(18.12) |
(14.3%) |
|
Reported basic EPS |
(24.05) |
(18.12) |
(24.7%) |
|
Net debt/(cash) |
(1,140.6) |
(1,023.8) |
(10.2%) |
Source: Osirium, Edison Investment Research
Osirium reported FY17 revenues 5% ahead of our forecast. Operating costs came in £262k lower than we had forecast, resulting in EBITDA of -£1.6m versus our -£1.9m forecast. Normalised and reported operating profit of -£2.3m were ahead of our forecasts due to the lower costs as well as the absence of share-based payments in the period versus our £0.3m forecast. As expected, the company reported an R&D tax credit of £0.4m. The company closed the year with a cash position of £1.0m, just below our £1.1m due to higher working capital consumption.
New customers and 100% renewals drive bookings growth
The company signed up 16 new customers in FY17, to close the year with 30 customers. In addition, all contracts expiring in the year were renewed, and in many cases customers expanded the number of devices protected or added new modules, resulting in 20 renewals and 11 upsells. The customer base covers a variety of verticals and new customers include three NHS trusts.
In the table below, we show the movement in bookings, deferred income and reported revenues.
Exhibit 2: Revenues and bookings
£000s |
FY16* |
CY16 |
FY17 |
Reported SaaS revenues |
440.6 |
361.7 |
557.4 |
Services |
37.0 |
37.0 |
90.2 |
Total revenues |
477.6 |
398.7 |
647.6 |
Bookings |
540.8 |
393.8 |
876.3 |
Monthly bookings rate |
38.6 |
32.8 |
73.0 |
Deferred income at year-end |
275.7 |
275.7 |
504.8 |
Growth rates** |
|||
Reported SaaS revenues |
74.5% |
N/A |
54.1% |
Services |
-1.9% |
N/A |
143.7% |
Total revenues |
64.6% |
N/A |
62.4% |
Bookings |
102% |
N/A |
123% |
Source: Osirium. Note: *14-month period ended 31 December 2016. **FY16 vs FY15, FY17 vs CY16.
Bookings grew 123% in FY17 compared to the previous 12 months. Total reported revenues grew 62% over the same period.
PAM market opportunity
Gartner estimates that the PAM market was worth $0.7bn in 2015 and will grow at a 27% CAGR to $2.3bn by 2020. Demand drivers include regulation (including the imminent introduction of GDPR), ongoing security threats, the risk of reputational damage and the growth in IT outsourcing. This provides a positive backdrop for Osirium.
Sales pipeline building
In December, the company launched a freemium product – PxM Express. This is a scaled-down version of Osirium’s PxM Platform, designed to provide privileged access management to businesses with up to 25 servers or network devices. It can also be deployed by larger organisations looking to test the software prior to making a wider investment decision. By the end of FY17, Osirium had five customers using PxM Express and this has since grown to 15.
The company signed up several distributors in FY17: Spectrami in MENA, ectacom in the DACH region and CHJ Technologies and EB2BCOM in Asia Pacific. In total, it has 24 channel partners in place. Sales via channel partners accelerated to 12 in FY17 up from two in FY16 and four in FY15.
Product development: Task automation, hybrid cloud
Management noted that it continues to develop its privileged task management solution, which automates commonly undertaken tasks to improve efficiency while increasing security. The company recently launched version 6.0 of the PxM platform. Improvements to the software include a session termination button, improved integration with Active Directory and native support for Mac OSX.
While many customers have typically deployed Osirium’s subscription-based software on-premise, there is growing demand for software that can support users’ hybrid cloud environments (ie a mixture of on-premise, hosted and public cloud deployments), opening more market opportunities. In February, the company announced support for the Microsoft Azure cloud platform. More recently, Osirium has also made its software available on AWS (Amazon Web Services), which means it now provides coverage for the two main public cloud platforms. This widens the pool of potential customers for Osirium, while maintaining the on-premise subscription-based software option for those customers whose security policies demand it.
Outlook and changes to forecasts
We have revised our forecasts to reflect FY17 results as well as the £4.2m gross proceeds raised in March. The company plans to use the proceeds to increase the headcount of the R&D and engineering teams, and increase investment in sales and marketing. We have increased our expectations for headcount from an average of 35 in FY18 and FY19, to 43 in FY18 and 45 in FY19. We have introduced forecasts for FY20. We now forecast that the company has sufficient cash to fund the business until FY20. If it is able to accelerate bookings growth ahead of our forecast, this would have a positive impact on cash flow due to the upfront billing of subscriptions.
Exhibit 3: Changes to forecasts
£000s |
FY18e |
FY19e |
FY20e |
|||||||
Old |
New |
Change |
y-o-y |
Old |
New |
Change |
y-o-y |
New |
y-o-y |
|
Revenues |
983.1 |
902.6 |
(8.2%) |
39.4% |
1,447.1 |
1,404.7 |
(2.9%) |
55.6% |
1,957.7 |
39.4% |
EBITDA |
(1,804.5) |
(1,845.2) |
2.3% |
14.7% |
(1,556.2) |
(1,645.3) |
5.7% |
(10.8%) |
(1,257.9) |
(23.6%) |
EBITDA margin |
-183.5% |
-204.4% |
11.4% |
-107.5% |
-117.1% |
8.9% |
-64.3% |
|||
Normalised operating profit |
(2,652.1) |
(2,758.7) |
4.0% |
20.1% |
(2,570.2) |
(2,775.2) |
8.0% |
0.6% |
(2,596.8) |
(6.4%) |
Normalised operating profit margin |
-269.8% |
-305.7% |
(35.9%) |
-177.6% |
-197.6% |
(20.0%) |
-132.6% |
|||
Reported operating profit |
(2,972.1) |
(2,758.7) |
(7.2%) |
20.1% |
(2,890.2) |
(2,775.2) |
(4.0%) |
0.6% |
(2,596.8) |
(6.4%) |
Reported operating margin |
-302.3% |
-305.7% |
(3.3%) |
-199.7% |
-197.6% |
2.2% |
-132.6% |
|||
Normalised PBT |
(2,652.1) |
(2,756.7) |
3.9% |
20.2% |
(2,570.2) |
(2,774.2) |
7.9% |
0.6% |
(2,596.8) |
(6.4%) |
Reported PBT |
(2,972.1) |
(2,756.7) |
(7.2%) |
20.2% |
(2,890.2) |
(2,774.2) |
(4.0%) |
0.6% |
(2,596.8) |
(6.4%) |
Normalised net income |
(2,254.3) |
(2,343.2) |
3.9% |
24.4% |
(2,184.6) |
(2,358.1) |
7.9% |
0.6% |
(2,207.3) |
(6.4%) |
Reported net income |
(2,556.0) |
(2,343.2) |
(8.3%) |
24.4% |
(2,485.5) |
(2,358.1) |
(5.1%) |
0.6% |
(2,207.3) |
(6.4%) |
Normalised basic EPS |
(21.69) |
(18.37) |
(15.3%) |
1.4% |
(21.02) |
(17.42) |
(17.1%) |
(5.2%) |
(16.30) |
(6.4%) |
Normalised diluted EPS |
(21.69) |
(18.37) |
(15.3%) |
1.4% |
(21.02) |
(17.42) |
(17.1%) |
(5.2%) |
(16.30) |
(6.4%) |
Reported basic EPS |
(24.59) |
(18.37) |
(25.3%) |
1.4% |
(23.91) |
(17.42) |
(27.2%) |
(5.2%) |
(16.30) |
(6.4%) |
Net debt/(cash) |
1,226.9 |
(2,465.4) |
(300.9%) |
140.8% |
3,305.0 |
(65.9) |
(102.0%) |
(97.3%) |
1,863.2 |
(2927.0%) |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Valuation
Peer multiples
Osirium continues to trade at a premium to peers on an EV/sales basis, with forecast revenue growth also at a premium to the peer group over the next three years. We do not expect the company to achieve positive EBITDA until FY23.
Exhibit 4: Peer financial metrics
Company |
Market cap |
Revenue growth |
EBITDA margin |
EBIT margin |
||||||
(m) |
FY1 |
FY2 |
FY3 |
FY1 |
FY2 |
FY3 |
FY1 |
FY2 |
FY3 |
|
Osirium |
£20 |
39.4% |
55.6% |
39.4% |
-204.4% |
-117.1% |
-64.3% |
-305.7% |
-197.6% |
-132.6% |
UK cybersecurity |
||||||||||
SOPHOS GROUP PLC |
£2,813 |
16.7% |
16.0% |
15.6% |
12.7% |
16.0% |
14.2% |
4.9% |
8.3% |
9.6% |
GB GROUP PLC |
£901 |
9.9% |
10.6% |
10.7% |
22.4% |
22.3% |
23.0% |
20.7% |
20.6% |
21.1% |
INTERCEDE GROUP PLC |
£15 |
-7.6% |
N/A |
N/A |
-21.2% |
N/A |
N/A |
-23.5% |
N/A |
N/A |
CORERO NETWORK SECURITY |
£34 |
59.4% |
N/A |
N/A |
-23.0% |
N/A |
N/A |
-48.4% |
N/A |
N/A |
UK SaaS software |
||||||||||
CRANEWARE PLC |
£568 |
16.6% |
15.3% |
13.5% |
30.9% |
31.2% |
31.3% |
28.5% |
28.7% |
28.9% |
DOTDIGITAL GROUP PLC |
£230 |
40.9% |
28.4% |
15.1% |
28.6% |
28.5% |
28.5% |
25.0% |
25.0% |
26.4% |
IDEAGEN PLC |
£263 |
33.2% |
18.6% |
N/A |
30.5% |
30.8% |
N/A |
26.9% |
26.9% |
N/A |
PAM software |
||||||||||
CYBERARK SOFTWARE |
$2,264 |
21.6% |
18.3% |
16.6% |
21.7% |
22.7% |
24.0% |
18.8% |
20.2% |
N/A |
WALLIX GROUP |
€ 146 |
47.2% |
42.1% |
34.8% |
-6.9% |
-2.7% |
0.5% |
-1.1% |
11.5% |
8.0% |
Global cybersecurity <£5bn market cap |
||||||||||
PROOFPOINT INC |
$5,978 |
36.9% |
27.7% |
25.5% |
13.6% |
15.5% |
20.0% |
8.5% |
12.4% |
15.7% |
FIREEYE INC |
$3,032 |
10.0% |
7.6% |
5.2% |
10.8% |
13.4% |
15.1% |
1.5% |
5.7% |
N/A |
COMMVAULT SYSTEMS INC |
$3,088 |
9.2% |
10.6% |
9.4% |
14.3% |
18.7% |
20.5% |
12.9% |
16.0% |
N/A |
QUALYS INC |
$3,395 |
20.5% |
18.0% |
21.1% |
37.3% |
37.4% |
N/A |
27.7% |
27.7% |
N/A |
MIMECAST LTD |
$2,413 |
26.9% |
20.1% |
24.0% |
14.4% |
16.3% |
25.3% |
3.7% |
7.1% |
5.8% |
IMPERVA INC |
$1,683 |
15.4% |
14.6% |
11.0% |
18.7% |
20.4% |
20.8% |
15.3% |
17.2% |
18.6% |
SECUREWORKS CORP - A |
$974 |
10.5% |
9.7% |
7.0% |
-0.3% |
2.7% |
7.4% |
-3.8% |
-1.0% |
N/A |
F-SECURE OYJ |
€ 591 |
7.3% |
8.7% |
9.1% |
10.0% |
13.0% |
14.6% |
6.5% |
9.7% |
11.5% |
Average |
22.0% |
17.8% |
15.6% |
12.6% |
19.1% |
18.9% |
7.3% |
15.7% |
16.2% |
|
Median |
16.7% |
16.0% |
14.3% |
14.3% |
18.7% |
20.5% |
8.5% |
16.0% |
15.7% |
|
Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg (as at 26 June 2018).
Exhibit 5: Peer valuation multiples
Company |
Market cap |
EV/Sales (x) |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
P/E (x) |
||||||
(m) |
FY1 |
FY2 |
FY3 |
FY1 |
FY2 |
FY3 |
FY1 |
FY2 |
FY3 |
|
Osirium |
£20 |
20.8 |
13.3 |
9.6 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
UK cybersecurity |
||||||||||
SOPHOS GROUP PLC |
£2,813 |
5.3 |
4.5 |
3.9 |
41.3 |
28.4 |
27.7 |
88.0 |
59.1 |
50.5 |
GB GROUP PLC |
£901 |
6.7 |
6.1 |
5.5 |
30.2 |
27.3 |
24.0 |
40.7 |
37.3 |
33.0 |
INTERCEDE GROUP PLC |
£15 |
1.5 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
CORERO NETWORK SECURITY |
£34 |
3.2 |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
UK SaaS software |
||||||||||
CRANEWARE PLC |
£568 |
10.4 |
9.0 |
7.9 |
33.6 |
28.9 |
25.4 |
51.6 |
44.6 |
39.1 |
DOTDIGITAL GROUP PLC |
£230 |
4.9 |
3.8 |
3.3 |
17.1 |
13.4 |
11.6 |
25.8 |
19.9 |
17.2 |
IDEAGEN PLC |
£263 |
7.1 |
6.0 |
N/A |
23.3 |
19.5 |
N/A |
30.8 |
27.0 |
N/A |
PAM software |
||||||||||
CYBERARK SOFTWARE |
$2,264 |
6.0 |
5.1 |
4.4 |
27.8 |
22.5 |
18.2 |
46.4 |
38.7 |
32.0 |
WALLIX GROUP |
€ 146 |
8.3 |
5.8 |
4.3 |
N/A |
N/A |
882.0 |
N/A |
121.9 |
32.8 |
Global cybersecurity <£5bn market cap |
||||||||||
PROOFPOINT INC |
$5,978 |
8.6 |
6.7 |
5.4 |
63.4 |
43.6 |
26.8 |
110.4 |
72.9 |
46.3 |
FIREEYE INC |
$3,032 |
3.6 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
33.0 |
24.6 |
20.8 |
790.0 |
91.3 |
55.4 |
COMMVAULT SYSTEMS INC |
$3,088 |
3.4 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
24.0 |
16.6 |
13.9 |
45.2 |
33.7 |
26.4 |
QUALYS INC |
$3,395 |
11.0 |
9.3 |
7.7 |
29.6 |
25.0 |
N/A |
59.6 |
50.5 |
40.6 |
MIMECAST LTD |
$2,413 |
7.1 |
5.9 |
4.7 |
49.1 |
36.0 |
18.8 |
139.6 |
87.2 |
39.0 |
IMPERVA INC |
$1,683 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
2.8 |
18.8 |
15.0 |
13.3 |
50.7 |
27.7 |
26.1 |
SECUREWORKS CORP - A |
$974 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
N/A |
58.6 |
19.9 |
N/A |
N/A |
62.7 |
F-SECURE OYJ |
€ 591 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
2.3 |
27.7 |
19.5 |
15.9 |
70.2 |
37.6 |
30.2 |
Average |
5.6 |
5.1 |
4.3 |
32.2 |
27.1 |
86.0 |
119.2 |
53.5 |
37.9 |
|
Median |
5.3 |
5.1 |
4.1 |
29.6 |
24.8 |
19.9 |
51.6 |
41.7 |
36.0 |
|
Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg (as at 26 June)
Reverse DCF valuation
As we do not expect Osirium to reach profitability within our three-year forecast period, we use a reverse discounted cash flow analysis to calculate the assumptions underlying the current share price. With a WACC of 11% and a terminal growth rate of 3%, we arrive at the current share price using the following assumptions for the period after our 2018–2020 explicit forecasts:
■
Bookings growth of 30% per annum from 2021 to 2024, 25% in 2025, 20% in 2026 and 15% in 2027 with 25% recognition in the year invoiced and 90% of deferred income unwinding each year.
■
Revenue growth: trending down from 33.7% in 2021 to 18.9% in 2027.
■
EBITDA margin: hitting positive EBITDA in 2023, rising to 40% margin by 2027. This assumes the company continues to capitalise development costs at a similar rate over the period of the analysis. We note that this equates to a terminal EBIT margin of 25%, in line with established software vendors. It also assumes that the company does not grow its cost base significantly until it has reached break-even.
■
Working capital: negative working capital requirements due to the upfront payment subscription model.
■
Capex: we forecast this to reduce from 60% of sales in 2021 to 17% by 2027.
Active market for PAM vendors
There have recently been two acquisitions in the PAM space:
■
In January, One Identity (an Identity Access Management software vendor) acquired Balabit for an undisclosed sum. Balabit was a privately-owned Hungarian first generation PAM vendor originally founded in 2000. Balabit’s session management technology was already embedded into One Identity’s Safeguard solution via an OEM partnership. One Identity aims to use the acquisition to further expand its PAM solutions with machine-learning driven, privileged account analytics. In a recent Forbes article, the deal value was estimated at $100m. Balabit’s CEO was previously quoted as saying that the company generated revenues of €20m in the year to June 2017 (+20% y-o-y) and was expecting to grow at a rate of 25–30% in the year to June 2018. This implies a trailing price/sales multiple of 4x and a forward multiple of c 3.4x.
■
In February, Bomgar acquired Lieberman Software for an undisclosed sum. Lieberman Software is a well-established first generation PAM vendor, originally founded in 1978. Bomgar provides secure access solutions and the acquisition strengthens Bomgar’s PAM offering.
Exhibit 6: Financial summary
£'000s |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
120.0 |
207.0 |
290.2 |
477.6 |
647.6 |
902.6 |
1,404.7 |
1,957.7 |
EBITDA |
|
|
(366.7) |
(327.1) |
(377.9) |
(1,136.7) |
(1,609.4) |
(1,845.2) |
(1,645.3) |
(1,257.9) |
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
(679.4) |
(714.3) |
(790.7) |
(1,725.6) |
(2,296.8) |
(2,758.7) |
(2,775.2) |
(2,596.8) |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
0.0 |
(184.3) |
(56.4) |
(96.9) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Reported operating profit |
(679.4) |
(898.5) |
(847.1) |
(1,822.5) |
(2,296.8) |
(2,758.7) |
(2,775.2) |
(2,596.8) |
||
Net Interest |
(35.2) |
5.7 |
(9.9) |
9.7 |
4.2 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(714.6) |
(708.5) |
(800.7) |
(1,715.9) |
(2,292.6) |
(2,756.7) |
(2,774.2) |
(2,596.8) |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(714.6) |
(892.8) |
(857.1) |
(1,812.8) |
(2,292.6) |
(2,756.7) |
(2,774.2) |
(2,596.8) |
Reported tax |
137.7 |
134.1 |
121.0 |
453.3 |
409.4 |
413.5 |
416.1 |
389.5 |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(576.9) |
(602.1) |
(687.6) |
(1,286.9) |
(1,883.2) |
(2,343.2) |
(2,358.1) |
(2,207.3) |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(576.9) |
(758.7) |
(736.0) |
(1,359.6) |
(1,883.2) |
(2,343.2) |
(2,358.1) |
(2,207.3) |
||
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Discontinued operations |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
(576.9) |
(602.1) |
(687.6) |
(1,286.9) |
(1,883.2) |
(2,343.2) |
(2,358.1) |
(2,207.3) |
||
Net income (reported) |
(576.9) |
(758.7) |
(736.0) |
(1,359.6) |
(1,883.2) |
(2,343.2) |
(2,358.1) |
(2,207.3) |
||
Basic ave. number of shares outstanding (m) |
0 |
1 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
13 |
14 |
14 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
N/A |
N/A |
(6.61) |
(12.38) |
(18.12) |
(18.37) |
(17.42) |
(16.30) |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (p) |
|
|
N/A |
N/A |
(6.61) |
(12.38) |
(18.12) |
(18.37) |
(17.42) |
(16.30) |
EPS - basic reported (p) |
|
|
(296.36) |
(144.92) |
(7.08) |
(13.08) |
(18.12) |
(18.37) |
(17.42) |
(16.30) |
Dividend (p) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
26.3 |
72.6 |
40.2 |
64.6 |
35.6 |
39.4 |
55.6 |
39.4 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
-305.7 |
-158.0 |
-130.2 |
-238.0 |
-248.5 |
-204.4 |
-117.1 |
-64.3 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
-566.3 |
-345.0 |
-272.5 |
-361.3 |
-354.7 |
-305.7 |
-197.6 |
-132.6 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
815.7 |
805.2 |
799.7 |
1,178.8 |
1,812.1 |
2,414.9 |
2,801.4 |
2,978.8 |
Intangible Assets |
808.6 |
795.7 |
793.3 |
1,134.5 |
1,731.9 |
2,303.4 |
2,658.5 |
2,804.6 |
||
Tangible Assets |
7.2 |
9.5 |
6.4 |
44.3 |
80.2 |
111.5 |
142.9 |
174.2 |
||
Investments & other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
109.3 |
269.2 |
428.1 |
3,953.7 |
1,646.4 |
3,126.2 |
866.9 |
(937.3) |
Stocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Debtors |
77.2 |
218.6 |
154.6 |
380.9 |
622.6 |
660.8 |
801.0 |
925.9 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
32.2 |
50.6 |
273.5 |
3,572.8 |
1,023.8 |
2,465.4 |
65.9 |
(1,863.2) |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(235.2) |
(294.2) |
(365.0) |
(648.5) |
(857.7) |
(1,368.0) |
(1,853.2) |
(2,407.1) |
Creditors |
(235.2) |
(294.2) |
(365.0) |
(648.5) |
(857.7) |
(1,368.0) |
(1,853.2) |
(2,407.1) |
||
Tax and social security |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Short term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(952.5) |
(487.6) |
(163.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Long term borrowings |
(789.0) |
(323.7) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(163.4) |
(163.9) |
(163.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
(262.6) |
292.6 |
699.5 |
4,483.9 |
2,600.8 |
4,173.1 |
1,815.1 |
(365.6) |
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
(262.6) |
292.6 |
699.5 |
4,483.9 |
2,600.8 |
4,173.1 |
1,815.1 |
(365.6) |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
(366.7) |
(327.1) |
(377.9) |
(1,136.7) |
(1,609.4) |
(1,845.2) |
(1,645.3) |
(1,257.9) |
||
Working capital |
66.3 |
3.8 |
120.7 |
226.8 |
85.5 |
477.6 |
347.6 |
428.9 |
||
Exceptional & other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Tax |
109.8 |
48.4 |
134.6 |
120.4 |
291.4 |
409.4 |
413.5 |
416.1 |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
(190.6) |
(274.9) |
(122.6) |
(789.4) |
(1,232.5) |
(958.2) |
(884.2) |
(412.8) |
Capex |
(412.8) |
(376.7) |
(407.3) |
(968.0) |
(1,320.6) |
(1,516.3) |
(1,516.3) |
(1,516.3) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
(35.2) |
5.7 |
(9.9) |
9.7 |
4.2 |
2.0 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
||
Equity financing |
0.0 |
639.3 |
762.8 |
5,047.1 |
0.0 |
3,914.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(638.6) |
(6.5) |
222.9 |
3,299.3 |
(2,549.0) |
1,441.7 |
(2,399.5) |
(1,929.1) |
||
Opening net (cash)/debt |
|
|
118.3 |
756.9 |
273.1 |
(273.5) |
(3,572.8) |
(1,023.8) |
(2,465.4) |
(65.9) |
FX |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
0.0 |
490.3 |
323.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.1) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing net (cash)/debt |
|
|
756.9 |
273.1 |
(273.5) |
(3,572.8) |
(1,023.8) |
(2,465.4) |
(65.9) |
1,863.2 |
Source: Osirium, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Financials
Park Group continued to grow billings, profits, cash and the well-covered dividend in FY18. Billings growth was modest, with the previously flagged delayed start to a significant contract within the corporate business, but profit growth was supported by higher margins, primarily reflecting business mix changes. The management transition is complete with both a new CEO and CFO in place and we expect to hear more about the strategic objectives over the next few months.