Last close As at 05/08/2026
NZD4.75
▲ −0.03 (−0.63%)
Market capitalisation
NZD499m
Research: Healthcare
AFT Pharma recently reported its FY17 results. Operating revenue grew 8.1% compared to FY16, mainly due to 19% growth in the Australian market, which currently comprises 53% of company revenue. New Zealand was weak due to Metoprolol issues and weak pharmacy demand. Maxigesic continues to do well internationally and is now launched in eight countries. Additionally, a licence agreement was recently announced in France, the world’s second largest market for similar products.
Written by
AFT Pharmaceuticals |
On the cusp |
Financial update |
Pharma & biotech |
31 May 2017 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Analysts
AFT Pharmaceuticals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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AFT Pharma recently reported its FY17 results. Operating revenue grew 8.1% compared to FY16, mainly due to 19% growth in the Australian market, which currently comprises 53% of company revenue. New Zealand was weak due to Metoprolol issues and weak pharmacy demand. Maxigesic continues to do well internationally and is now launched in eight countries. Additionally, a licence agreement was recently announced in France, the world’s second largest market for similar products.
Year end |
Revenue (NZ$m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
03/16 |
64.0 |
(10.8) |
(0.11) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
03/17 |
69.2 |
(18.5) |
(0.19) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
03/18e |
97.7 |
(0.6) |
(0.01) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
03/19e |
124.2 |
14.7 |
0.15 |
0.0 |
15.3 |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Australian market leads the way
Revenue in Australia was up 19% in FY17 compared to FY16, thanks in large part to Maxigesic sales doubling as well as successful launches of Crystaderm and Restoranail. Growth is expected to continue to be robust as patients switch from codeine containing products (which will no longer be available over the counter after 1 February 2018 due to re-scheduling) to Maxigesic.
Maxigesic marketing expanding globally
Maxigesic is currently sold and launched in eight countries and distribution agreements are in place in a total of 112, including a recent licence deal in France, which has a US$900m market for paracetamol/acetaminophen and ibuprofen tablets (the second largest in the world, behind the US). AFT is targeting between 30-40 launches for Maxigesic in FY18.
R&D programmes progressing
The FDA has accepted the application for registration for the oral version of Maxigesic and a decision is pending (likely in CY18). AFT is currently completing a 275-patient pivotal study for Maxigesic IV (filing expected in CY17) and recently completed a 200-patient study for Maxigesic Oral Liquid. A 275-patient pivotal study of Maxiclear PE is expected to complete this calendar year as well. NasoSURF is now in distribution and human factor studies with pharmacokinetic and clinical studies are expected to begin in FY18.
Valuation: NZ$461m or NZ$4.75 per share
We are adjusting our valuation from NZ$461m or NZ$4.76 per share to NZ$461m or NZ$4.75 per share. We have reduced our FY18 and FY19 revenue projections by NZ$1.4m and NZ$2.0m, respectively, but the effect of this reduction is offset by advancing our NPVs to the most recent period. We expect to update our valuation following additional information regarding the status of Maxigesic launches as well as results of clinical trials.
Making progress
AFT Pharmaceuticals is a specialty pharmaceutical company with over 130 prescription, over the counter and hospital products across an array of indications. In recent years, it has been involved in the international launch of a series of products outside of its home territory in New Zealand. It has successfully built a commercial infrastructure in Australia where the market for its products continues to grow. It is currently in the early stages of a launch across South-East Asia, and has recently signed multiple out-licensing partners across Europe and the Middle East. The company’s lead product is Maxigesic, a co-formulation of acetaminophen and ibuprofen at a specific ratio (3.3 to 1) that has been clinically proven to increase potency. AFT is using Maxigesic as its flagship product for international expansion and it currently accounts for the majority of overseas revenue.
Australian revenue growth a highlight of FY17 results
AFT recently reported operating revenue of NZ$69.2m for FY17, ending on 31 March 2017. This marks an 8.1% increase over FY16. The loss for the period was NZ$18.3m, compared to an FY16 loss of NZ$13.3m.
Exhibit 1: FY17 results by segment
NZ$000s |
Revenues (2017) |
Revenues (2016) |
Loss before tax (2017) |
Loss before tax (2016) |
Australia |
37,064 |
31,224 |
(3,663) |
(3,233) |
New Zealand |
29,168 |
31,135 |
(5,782) |
(4,902) |
Asia |
1,005 |
648 |
(689) |
(1,015) |
Rest of World |
1,968 |
1,007 |
(8,226) |
(4,159) |
Total |
69,205 |
64,014 |
(18,330) |
(13,309) |
Source: AFT Pharmaceuticals
The Australian segment reported particularly strong results, thanks to Maxigesic revenues more than doubling (due to less stringent scheduling for Maxigesic as well as the announcement that products containing codeine would no longer be available without a prescription) and the launch of Crystaderm and Restoranail. The outlook for Maxigesic in Australia remains strong, as market research conducted by the company suggests that 40-47% of current consumers who buy 750 million OTC codeine analgesics each year in Australia would switch to another OTC analgesic rather than get a doctor’s prescription, which they will be forced to do as of 1 February 2018.
Maxigesic momentum
Maxigesic is now sold and launched in a total of eight countries – Australia, New Zealand, Brunei, Italy, Serbia, Singapore, United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom – with total tablet sales more than tripling from 22m to 74m. In total there are licence agreements in 112 countries. AFT is targeting one-third of these areas to have launches in FY18, one-quarter in FY19, another one-quarter in FY20 and the rest in FY21. If AFT executes on this plan successfully, Maxigesic could be available in over 40 countries by the end of the fiscal year, including much of Europe. The major rate-limiting step will be the ability of the company to successfully traverse the registration applications in all of these different countries in a timeline manner.
Exhibit 2: Current and upcoming Maxigesic launches outside Australia/New Zealand
Country |
Status |
Spain |
Launch pending |
Portugal |
Launch pending |
UK |
Launched, sales ahead of expectations |
Belgium |
Launch pending |
Luxembourg |
Launch pending |
France |
Launch pending |
Nordics |
Launch pending |
Eastern Europe & Balkans |
Launch pending |
Serbia |
Launched |
Italy |
Launched, sales increased sixfold |
Kuwait & Iraq |
Launch pending |
United Arab Emirates |
Launched, sales tripled |
Singapore/Brunei |
Launched, reason for 55% growth in South-East Asia Revenue |
Malaysia |
Launch pending |
Country |
Spain |
Portugal |
UK |
Belgium |
Luxembourg |
France |
Nordics |
Eastern Europe & Balkans |
Serbia |
Italy |
Kuwait & Iraq |
United Arab Emirates |
Singapore/Brunei |
Malaysia |
Status |
Launch pending |
Launch pending |
Launched, sales ahead of expectations |
Launch pending |
Launch pending |
Launch pending |
Launch pending |
Launch pending |
Launched |
Launched, sales increased sixfold |
Launch pending |
Launched, sales tripled |
Launched, reason for 55% growth in South-East Asia Revenue |
Launch pending |
Source: AFT Pharmaceuticals
New Zealand still a work in progress
New Zealand continues to be a bit of a problem area, falling 6.3% in FY17. Approximately half of the decline (~NZ$1m) was due to ongoing issues with Metoprolol, which AFT had been sole supplier of for the New Zealand market. As a reminder, Metoprolol is a beta blocker used to treat angina, high blood pressure and heart failure. Since November 2015, there has been an ongoing global shortage of the active ingredient, metoprolol succinate, due to a manufacturing issue. The New Zealand government pharmaceutical buying agency, PHARMAC, and AFT have agreed that AFT will no longer supply Metoprolol to the New Zealand market from approximately mid-FY18 onwards as PHARMAC has enlisted other sources. We believe the total additional downside from this lost contract will be between NZ$1m and NZ$2m.
The other half of the New Zealand decline was due to weakness in the Pharmacy channel, especially in the first half of the year. The reason for the weakness is difficult to discern but may be due to a mild cold/flu season in the winter months and then a disappointing allergy season due to wet weather in the spring.
Spending driven by increased investment
The company reported R&D expenses increased 38.7% to NZ$11.2m as the company has ramped up its development programmes. AFT is currently completing a 275-patient pivotal study for Maxigesic IV (filing expected in CY17) and recently completed a 200-patient study for Maxigesic Oral Liquid. A 275-patient pivotal study of Maxiclear PE is expected to complete this calendar year as well.
NasoSURF completed Class I Medical Device registration in the US and is now in distribution and human factor studies with pharmacokinetic and clinical studies (including a 300-patient trial in its first indication) expected to begin in FY18. AFT is also preparing to file an IND with the FDA this year.
Selling and distribution expenses increased 32.2% to NZ$26.0m, thanks primarily to the launch of OTC products in Australia and Singapore as well as the cost of advertising of Maxigesic following its rescheduling on 1 July 2016 in Australia.
Valuation
We are adjusting our valuation from NZ$461m or NZ$4.76 per share to NZ$461m or NZ$4.75 per share. We have reduced our FY18 and FY19 revenue projections by NZ$1.4m and NZ$2.0m, respectively, (mainly due lower expectations in the New Zealand market) but the effect of this reduction is offset by advancing our NPVs to the most recent period. We have also eliminated the tax liability for 2019 and part of 2020 due to carried forward tax losses. We expect to update our valuation following additional information regarding the status of Maxigesic launches as well as results of clinical trials.
Exhibit 3: DCF sensitivity table (NZ$/share)
Terminal EBIT Margin |
|||||
Terminal Revenue Growth |
15% |
25% |
34% |
38% |
42% |
-2% |
2.36 |
3.05 |
3.67 |
3.95 |
4.23 |
-1% |
2.43 |
3.19 |
3.87 |
4.17 |
4.47 |
0% |
2.53 |
3.36 |
4.10 |
4.44 |
4.77 |
1% |
2.64 |
3.56 |
4.39 |
4.76 |
5.13 |
2% |
2.78 |
3.82 |
4.75 |
5.16 |
5.58 |
3% |
2.96 |
4.14 |
5.21 |
5.68 |
6.16 |
4% |
3.20 |
4.58 |
5.82 |
6.38 |
6.93 |
5% |
3.54 |
5.19 |
6.68 |
7.34 |
8.01 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Financials
AFT reported NZ$16.0m in cash as of 31 March 2017, down from NZ$28.1m a year ago. It raised NZ$9.1m in March 2017 with the issue of redeemable preference shares to two major shareholders. The company is currently in the midst of a share purchase plan being offered to a broader group of eligible shareholders, which is looking to raise up to NZ$1.25m. The offer opened on 24 May 2017 and closes on 12 June 2017.
We expect that AFT will have sufficient capital to reach profitability, which it guides to the FY18/19 timeframe (we are currently expecting a break-even FY18 and a profitable FY19). It is important to note that our estimates for profitability are heavily dependent upon growth in the Maxigesic franchise, especially in the ROW segment. Whether or not AFT is able to meet or beat these estimates will depend on whether the company is able to execute on the estimated 30-40 launches it is targeting in FY18.
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
NZ$000 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
||
March |
NZ GAAP |
NZ GAAP |
NZ GAAP |
NZ GAAP |
NZ GAAP |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
56,241 |
64,014 |
69,205 |
97,731 |
124,214 |
Cost of Sales |
(35,083) |
(40,435) |
(43,207) |
(49,383) |
(56,779) |
||
Gross Profit |
21,158 |
23,579 |
25,998 |
48,348 |
67,435 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(9,659) |
(7,821) |
(15,125) |
1,260 |
16,519 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
(9,530) |
(7,667) |
(14,982) |
1,403 |
16,662 |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
99 |
114 |
183 |
183 |
183 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(546) |
(618) |
2,245 |
2,357 |
2,475 |
||
Operating Profit |
(9,977) |
(8,171) |
(12,554) |
3,943 |
19,320 |
||
Net Interest |
(1,908) |
(3,145) |
(3,531) |
(2,000) |
(2,000) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(11,438) |
(10,812) |
(18,513) |
(597) |
14,662 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(11,885) |
(11,316) |
(16,085) |
1,943 |
17,320 |
Tax |
282 |
42 |
(58) |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(11,156) |
(10,770) |
(18,571) |
(597) |
14,662 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(11,603) |
(11,274) |
(16,143) |
1,943 |
17,320 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
1.2 |
96.8 |
97.1 |
97.1 |
97.1 |
||
EPS - normalised (NZ$) |
|
|
(9.46) |
(0.11) |
(0.19) |
(0.01) |
0.15 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
(945.74) |
(11.12) |
(19.12) |
(0.61) |
15.10 |
EPS - (reported) (NZ$) |
|
|
(9.84) |
(0.12) |
(0.17) |
0.02 |
0.18 |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
37.6 |
36.8 |
37.6 |
49.5 |
54.3 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
1.3 |
13.3 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
1.4 |
13.4 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
2,488 |
3,249 |
4,171 |
5,516 |
6,915 |
Intangible Assets |
1,669 |
2,111 |
2,548 |
3,698 |
4,848 |
||
Tangible Assets |
411 |
407 |
386 |
581 |
830 |
||
Investments |
408 |
731 |
1,237 |
1,237 |
1,237 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
30,725 |
62,055 |
54,060 |
54,171 |
69,515 |
Stocks |
14,686 |
17,686 |
18,718 |
21,494 |
24,713 |
||
Debtors |
11,251 |
16,288 |
19,362 |
19,795 |
22,759 |
||
Cash |
4,700 |
28,055 |
15,980 |
12,882 |
22,043 |
||
Other |
88 |
26 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(10,148) |
(13,511) |
(15,019) |
(16,623) |
(18,521) |
Creditors |
(10,148) |
(13,511) |
(15,019) |
(16,623) |
(18,521) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(20,739) |
(23,161) |
(23,426) |
(23,426) |
(23,426) |
Long term borrowings |
(20,739) |
(23,161) |
(23,426) |
(23,426) |
(23,426) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
2,326 |
28,632 |
19,786 |
19,638 |
34,483 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(11,479) |
(11,326) |
(15,473) |
763 |
13,342 |
Net Interest |
(1,908) |
(3,145) |
(3,531) |
(2,000) |
(2,000) |
||
Tax |
282 |
42 |
(58) |
0 |
0 |
||
Capex |
(483) |
(694) |
(1,598) |
(1,671) |
(1,724) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
12,859 |
38,357 |
9,042 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(763) |
(1,652) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(1,492) |
21,582 |
(11,618) |
(2,908) |
9,617 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
11,889 |
16,039 |
(4,894) |
7,446 |
10,544 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(2,658) |
(649) |
(722) |
(190) |
(456) |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
16,039 |
(4,894) |
7,446 |
10,544 |
1,383 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
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Research: Metals & Mining
On 24 May, KEFI announced an update to its 2015 definitive feasibility study (DFS) in order to account for all of the initiatives undertaken by the company in the intervening two years. Without exception, the operational parameters of the mining operation (throughput, grade, recovery, etc) were identical to our prior expectations. Cash operating costs are now expected to be just 3.5% higher (equivalent to an annualised inflation rate of 1.7%), while capex costs, although towards the top of the range of our prior expectations, are materially lower than those presented in the original 2015 DFS (albeit the latter were calculated on an owner-manager, rather than a contract miner, basis). Note that all forecasts and valuations are here presented on a post-17:1 share consolidation basis (which became effective on 2 March), unless otherwise specified.