Last close As at 05/08/2026
EUR3.07
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
EUR22m
Research: Consumer
bet-at-home is a long-established sports betting brand, successfully cross-selling into gaming. As expected, Q118 revenues declined by 10.8% to €33.2m, mainly due to IP blocking in Poland. The company has reiterated FY18 guidance of €150m revenues and €36–40m EBITDA. Risks to future forecasts include uncertainty regarding e-gaming regulation in core markets. The company now has c 4.9 million customers and is well positioned to benefit from the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Largely due to regulatory concerns, the stock is down 22% ytd, trading at 13.3x 2018e EV/EBITDA. This is still a premium to peers, but the company’s high cash flow and ability to pay special dividends is very attractive.
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bet-at-home |
Stock affected by regulatory concerns
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3 May 2018 |
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bet-at-home is a client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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bet-at-home is a long-established sports betting brand, successfully cross-selling into gaming. As expected, Q118 revenues declined by 10.8% to €33.2m, mainly due to IP blocking in Poland. The company has reiterated FY18 guidance of €150m revenues and €36–40m EBITDA. Risks to future forecasts include uncertainty regarding e-gaming regulation in core markets. The company now has c 4.9 million customers and is well positioned to benefit from the 2018 FIFA World Cup. Largely due to regulatory concerns, the stock is down 22% ytd, trading at 13.3x 2018e EV/EBITDA. This is still a premium to peers, but the company’s high cash flow and ability to pay special dividends is very attractive.
Regulation uncertainty in key markets
bet-at-home’s main markets are Germany (35% of gross win), Austria (24%) and Eastern Europe (23%). In FY17, the mix of gross gaming revenue (GGR) between sports and e-gaming (casino, poker) was 44%/56%, demonstrating successful cross-selling into gaming. Some of its markets are fully regulated (eg UK), but formal licensing has not yet been introduced in many of its main markets, where it pays taxes and VAT as applicable and operates under its EU licence. Regulatory risks are high, as evidenced by last year’s IP blocking in Poland, with similar proposals (subsequently withdrawn) in Austria. In Germany, the regulatory environment remains unclear, particularly for online casino, and the company has ceased casino offerings in the state of Schleswig-Holstein.
Maintaining FY18 guidance
As expected, Q118 revenues declined by 10.8% to €33.2m, which is a direct result of IP blocking in Poland. Lower marketing spend in the period (€7.7m vs €14.9m) led to an 88% increase in EBITDA to €9.3m. Importantly, management has reiterated FY18 guidance of €150m revenue and €36–40m EBITDA, in line with recently lowered consensus. This assumes an unchanged regulatory environment. Despite the headwinds, the company is successfully retaining customers (4.9m vs 4.8m at YE17) and it is well-positioned ahead of the FIFA World Cup in Russia.
Valuation: 13.3x 2018e EV/EBITDA
bet-at-home’s shares have fallen 22% ytd, largely due to regulatory concerns across its key markets, including a negative proposal in Austria in March (which was subsequently withdrawn). On consensus figures, the stock trades at 13.3x FY18 EV/EBITDA, a c 20% premium to the peer group. However, its healthy cash position and ability to pay special dividends is very attractive.
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QEX was able to exceed all of its four key operating measures (KOM) targets for FY18, with sales turnover growing by 42% y-o-y and gross margin at 16.0% (vs initial target of 14.3%), assisted by solid demand for dairy products. The company’s recently launched Australian operations performed ahead of expectations, although local competitors have already reduced prices to strengthen customer retention. FY19 targets are likely to be revised upwards by 31 May, with the sales turnover target to exceed the FY18 figure by more than 10%, according to management.