QEX was able to exceed all of its four key operating measures (KOM) targets for FY18, with sales turnover growing by 42% y-o-y and gross margin at 16.0% (vs initial target of 14.3%), assisted by solid demand for dairy products. The company’s recently launched Australian operations performed ahead of expectations, although local competitors have already reduced prices to strengthen customer retention. FY19 targets are likely to be revised upwards by 31 May, with the sales turnover target to exceed the FY18 figure by more than 10%, according to management.
QEX Logistics |
FY18 results ahead of initial targets
General industrials |
NXT Company Spotlight
03 May 2018 |
Share price performance
Share details
Business description
Bull
Bear
Analyst
QEX Logistics coverage is provided through the NXT Research Scheme |
QEX was able to exceed all of its four key operating measures (KOM) targets for FY18, with sales turnover growing by 42% y-o-y and gross margin at 16.0% (vs initial target of 14.3%), assisted by solid demand for dairy products. The company’s recently launched Australian operations performed ahead of expectations, although local competitors have already reduced prices to strengthen customer retention. FY19 targets are likely to be revised upwards by 31 May, with the sales turnover target to exceed the FY18 figure by more than 10%, according to management.
Sales driven by good demand for dairy products
QEX’s sales turnover reached NZ$31.5m in FY18 (unaudited figure), c 21% ahead of its original KOM included in the listing document (NZ$26m). The company was able to exceed its other top-line KOM targets, with monthly volume of exported dairy products reaching 178 tonnes in FY18 (vs targeted 155 tonnes) and the number of parcels cleared monthly through customs by Ditu at 75,698 (vs a target of 66,000). QEX benefitted from strong demand during the Chinese New Year season in February (leveraging the milk powder inventory it had built up in advance), which continued into March. QEX’s revenues were also assisted by better than expected performance of both its Australian operations and the Chinese subsidiary Ditu. However, the market for dairy products remains competitive while a potential shortage of infant formulas in Australia poses a short-term downside risk.
Higher margins amid favourable milk powder pricing
QEX’s gross margin reached 16.0% compared to its KOM target of 14.3%, driven by particularly strong profitability in Q418 at 18.4%. This was mostly due to favourable pricing amid milk powder shortages in China following the New Year. Moreover, the company also benefitted from lower direct freight cost due to the extent it used sea freight to deliver inventories to Shanghai. Moreover, QEX plans to obtain the full International Air Transport Association licensing in Q219, which will allow the company to cooperate directly with airlines rather than through freight forwarders. It has also moved to its new premises closer to the airport, providing new revenue opportunities in warehousing services.
Valuation: Peer comparison
QEX is priced at 14.8x FY17 (end-March 2017) EV/EBITDA, with logistics companies trading on multiples of c 10.1x EV/EBITDA and 21.6x P/E on a trailing 12-month basis. However, this ratio does not reflect QEX’s strong growth posted in FY18.
|
Company financials
Source: QEX (historicals and forecasts). Note: *QEX will review its FY19 targets by 31 May. |
Valuation
QEX remains a small company and has few peers. We note that AuMake (a recently listed Australian company) is approaching the daigou market differently, planning to open at least 20 specialist stores in Australia targeting Chinese consumers. It generated LTM revenues as at end-December 2017 of c A$18m and raised A$14m on 22 January 2018.
There are a number of other logistics companies globally, which average 10.1x next-year EV/EBITDA multiples. As can be seen, analyst coverage of these is poor for any companies with market cap of less than c US$700m.
Exhibit 1: Comparative multiples
Market cap |
EV/EBITDA (x) trailing 12 months |
P/E (x) |
|
Direct |
|
||
AuMake International |
55 |
- |
- |
|
|||
Milk and health supplements |
|||
a2 Milk Co |
6,224 |
25.4 |
60.2 |
Bellamy's Australia |
1,547 |
- |
- |
Blackmores |
1,532 |
28.7 |
31.5 |
Median |
|
27.0 |
45.9 |
Logistics |
|||
United Parcel Service |
98,527 |
11.1x |
18.3x |
FedEx |
66,940 |
10.1x |
18.6x |
Deutsche Post |
53,904 |
9.8x |
17.7x |
Kuehne + Nagel International |
18,749 |
14.7x |
24.7x |
DSV |
14,980 |
18.6x |
27.4x |
Bollore |
14,627 |
21.9x |
23.0x |
JB Hunt Transport Services |
13,030 |
13.3x |
30.8x |
CH Robinson Worldwide |
12,894 |
15.6x |
27.3x |
Expeditors International of Washington |
11,304 |
13.8x |
26.1x |
Yamato Holdings |
10,596 |
16.1x |
- |
Nippon Express |
7,546 |
7.4x |
18.9x |
Hyundai Glovis |
5,905 |
7.9x |
11.6x |
Landstar System |
4,345 |
14.6x |
23.8x |
Sinotrans |
3,491 |
4.9x |
12.1x |
Sankyu |
3,172 |
7.3x |
16.2x |
Panalpina Welttransport Holding |
3,009 |
15.9x |
39.8x |
Hitachi Transport System |
2,995 |
9.2x |
16.1x |
Mainfreight |
1,755 |
14.1x |
24.2x |
Forward Air |
1,606 |
10.4x |
21.8x |
Hub Group |
1,522 |
10.0x |
21.6x |
Kintetsu World Express |
1,343 |
9.9x |
24.8x |
Echo Global Logistics |
777 |
14.9x |
- |
Eddie Stobart Logistics |
700 |
- |
- |
Logwin |
456 |
5.5x |
13.1x |
Wincanton |
399 |
4.9x |
7.8x |
Hanjin Transportation |
289 |
13.2x |
- |
Sebang |
240 |
5.8x |
9.2x |
K&S |
160 |
5.8x |
38.9x |
South Port New Zealand |
119 |
10.2x |
18.3x |
TIL Logistics Group |
109 |
- |
- |
Lindsay Australia |
84 |
6.8x |
19.9x |
CTI Logistics |
62 |
8.1x |
21.7x |
Bremer Lagerhaus-Gesellschaft |
62 |
- |
- |
Hansol Logistics Co |
40 |
5.4x |
29.9x |
Mercantile Ports and Logistics |
17 |
- |
- |
Median |
10.1x |
21.6x |
Source: Edison Investment Research, Bloomberg (priced on 30 April 2018).
|
||||||||
Joules Group is strategically focused on the multi-channel distribution of its distinctive aspirational own brand to a loyal and growing active customer base. It has a significant opportunity to grow international market share via wholesale partners and its online platform. The company has been consistently delivering results ahead of market expectations and consensus revenue forecasts for FY19 and FY20 appear undemanding.