While Q1 revenue grew by 46%, the underlying growth was affected by customers deferring projects, particularly around SAP S/4HANA. However, new orders were healthy, and the book-to-bill ratio jumped to 1.3x. This included part of a $4.5m new contract in the US and we expect FY18 to follow a similar path to FY17 with a stronger than normal H2. Meanwhile, SNP remains focused on bedding down acquisitions and the management team has been restructured to reflect the global nature of the business. Also, there has been some streamlining. The outlook remains favourable, particularly on the M&A-driven side of the business, with global M&A at record highs. Given the favourable industry drivers and the potential for margin recovery, the shares look attractive on c 22x our FY19e earnings.
Written by
SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner |
New $4.5m contract win in North America |
Q1 results |
Software & comp services |
4 May 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
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While Q1 revenue grew by 46%, the underlying growth was affected by customers deferring projects, particularly around SAP S/4HANA. However, new orders were healthy, and the book-to-bill ratio jumped to 1.3x. This included part of a $4.5m new contract in the US and we expect FY18 to follow a similar path to FY17 with a stronger than normal H2. Meanwhile, SNP remains focused on bedding down acquisitions and the management team has been restructured to reflect the global nature of the business. Also, there has been some streamlining. The outlook remains favourable, particularly on the M&A-driven side of the business, with global M&A at record highs. Given the favourable industry drivers and the potential for margin recovery, the shares look attractive on c 22x our FY19e earnings.
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/16 |
80.7 |
6.4 |
109.7 |
39.0 |
31.5 |
1.1 |
12/17 |
122.3 |
0.2 |
(7.4) |
0.0 |
N/A |
0.0 |
12/18e |
151.2 |
6.2 |
74.3 |
30.0 |
46.4 |
0.9 |
12/19e |
165.3 |
12.9 |
160.1 |
40.0 |
21.5 |
1.2 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Q1 results: Book-to-bill ratio rises to 1.30x
Group revenue grew by 46% to €31.6m, including organic growth of 2% and the impact of four acquisitions. There was also a c €450k FX tailwind. SNP reported an operating loss of €2.6m, which was after €1m of exceptional costs that are not expected to continue. Net debt increased by €5.8m to €32.6m.
Contract win with Spectrum Brands
SNP has won a $4.5m contract to provide transformation software and services to Spectrum Brands, the global consumer goods company listed on the NYSE, as it carves out its batteries and appliances divisions. The contract consists of two projects, one of which was booked after the period end, and includes a software component of $1.9m. The deal is evidence that SNP’s US business is regaining traction after the appointment in January of a US-based chief revenue officer.
Forecasts: Modest tweaks on maintained guidance
We have increased our interest and capex forecasts and created a new cloud revenue category. Otherwise, our forecasts are broadly maintained. Our adjusted EPS falls by 3.3% in FY18 and by 1.6% in FY19, while year-end net debt goes up by €0.6m to €34.8m in FY18 and by €1.5m to €29.8m a year later.
Valuation: Strong growth play in the ERP space
The stock trades on c 46x our FY18e EPS, which falls to c 22x in FY19e and c 16x in FY20e. Our discounted cash flow valuation (based on c 7% organic revenue CAGR over 10 years, 10% WACC, 15.8% long-term margin and 2% terminal growth) is €40.50/share, 14% above the current share price. Increasing the organic revenue CAGR to 10% increases the valuation to c €53/share, while a 15% CAGR takes the valuation to c €83/share, with other variables remaining constant.
SNP Schneider-Neureither & Partner is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited
Q1 results: Slow start to year, but outlook looks good
While Q1 was weaker than management expected, SNP is maintaining guidance for FY18, with revenue in the €150-155m range and an EBIT margin in the mid-single digits. Despite the weak Q1, new orders rose by 68% to €40.9m, while the backlog jumped by 72% to €70.2m. Consequently, the group’s financial performance is expected to pick up as the year progresses.
Q1 group revenue grew by 46% to €31.6m, including organic growth of €0.3m, or c 2%, and the impact of four acquisitions (Innoplexia, SNP Poland, Adepcon and ERST). There was also a c €450k FX tailwind. There was an operating loss of €2.6m, which was after €1m of exceptional costs that are not expected to continue. This included €0.3m of acquisition-related expenses, €0.4m from the changeover to IFRS 15 and €0.3m in other factors, mainly being redundancies in North America. Around 25 full-time positions were eliminated in Q1, which is expected to generate savings in the lower single-digit millions.
The group is continuing to evolve following the significant acquisitions of the last two years. The two-person executive board has been replaced with a six-person leadership team to reflect the global nature of the group. Much of management time has been on transforming the group processes following the recent acquisitions. SNP rehired Dieter Matheis late last year on a temporary contract as global CFO to assist in the process. Meanwhile, the overall group strategy, to build a global, software-based IT services business providing support in transformation projects, both at international and regional levels, remains intact.
The DACH (German-speaking) area has been performing well (10% revenue growth y-o-y to €15.4m), as have BCC (€4.8m revenues) and Adepcon (€4.2m revenues), which are the major acquisitions of 2017, and the UK (€2.0m revenues, up 33%). BCC, now called SNP Poland, has been fully integrated, while Adepcon continues to operate as it did previously. The laggard regions have been North America and Asia. North America saw a 22% decline in revenues to €3.6m, which largely reflects the lumpiness of orders, as a large order recently completed. In Asia, revenues rose by 7% to €1.6m, representing 5% of group revenues, compared with 10% of employees. The new transformation contract with Spectrum Brands is a positive development for the North American business and also highlights the emphasis on increasing software sales. Henry Göttler, who was running the Asian business, has left the group.
There were several project delays, which mostly related to SAP S/4HANA and resulted in lower utilisation levels as well as lower software sales. S/4HANA is very complex to implement, and the S/4HANA projects are expected to be staggered or implemented over the coming months.
Professional services revenue jumped by 33% to €25.4m, reflecting a 6% organic decline and €7.4m from acquisitions. The company has also added a new cloud revenue category that incorporates the hosting activities of the recently acquired SNP Poland, with €0.4m revenue generated in Q1.
Total software licence sales more than doubled to €5.7m, including €1.8m from acquisitions and 56% organic growth. The total includes €1.9m of third-party software resales. Despite the strong organic growth, sales of SNP’s high-margin applications, including Interface Scanner, DPM and Dragoman, were lower than expected.
Exhibit 1: Quarterly analysis
Quarterly analysis |
2016 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2018 |
2018 |
2018 |
2019 |
€'000 |
FY |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
Q4 |
FY |
Q1 |
Q2-Q4 |
FYe |
FYe |
Professional services |
66,640 |
19,089 |
22,151 |
25,936 |
31,157 |
98,333 |
25,441 |
89,516 |
114,957 |
125,556 |
Cloud |
|
|
|
|
|
|
424 |
1,376 |
1,800 |
1,971 |
Licences |
11,982 |
1,733 |
3,042 |
5,935 |
8,389 |
19,099 |
3,697 |
23,974 |
27,671 |
30,300 |
Maintenance |
2,063 |
776 |
1,237 |
1,140 |
1,758 |
4,911 |
1,991 |
4,830 |
6,821 |
7,469 |
Total revenue |
80,685 |
21,598 |
26,430 |
33,011 |
41,304 |
122,343 |
31,553 |
119,696 |
151,249 |
165,297 |
Other operating income* |
1,228 |
235 |
295 |
171 |
1,217 |
1,918 |
833 |
|
|
|
Cost of materials |
(8,276) |
(2,260) |
(3,244) |
(7,037) |
(6,674) |
(19,215) |
(5,135) |
|
|
|
Personnel costs |
(47,207) |
(14,657) |
(15,511) |
(18,849) |
(22,455) |
(71,472) |
(21,363) |
|
|
|
Other operating expenses |
(17,811) |
(6,692) |
(6,461) |
(7,156) |
(9,626) |
(29,935) |
(7,183) |
|
|
|
Other taxes |
(95) |
(28) |
(277) |
(32) |
(196) |
(533) |
(118) |
|
|
|
Op costs (before depreciation) |
(72,161) |
(23,402) |
(25,198) |
(32,903) |
(37,572) |
(119,075) |
(32,966) |
(107,401) |
(140,367) |
(146,954) |
Adjusted EBITDA |
8,524 |
(1,804) |
1,232 |
108 |
3,732 |
3,268 |
(1,413) |
12,295 |
10,882 |
18,343 |
Depreciation* |
(1,010) |
(344) |
(390) |
(493) |
(528) |
(1,755) |
(808) |
(2,680) |
(3,488) |
(4,408) |
Adjusted operating profit |
7,514 |
(2,148) |
842 |
(385) |
3,204 |
1,513 |
(2,221) |
9,615 |
7,394 |
13,935 |
Operating Margin |
9.3% |
(9.9%) |
3.2% |
(1.2%) |
7.8% |
1.2% |
(7.0%) |
8.0% |
4.9% |
8.4% |
Net interest |
(1,137) |
(577) |
(181) |
(218) |
(351) |
(1,327) |
(287) |
(913) |
(1,200) |
(1,000) |
Edison profit before tax (norm) |
6,377 |
(2,725) |
661 |
(603) |
2,853 |
186 |
(2,508) |
8,702 |
6,194 |
12,935 |
Amortisation of acq'd intangibles* |
(657) |
(250) |
(300) |
(350) |
(1,121) |
(2,021) |
(400) |
(1,200) |
(1,600) |
(1,600) |
Associates |
8 |
0 |
(1) |
12 |
(35) |
(24) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Earnings before tax |
5,728 |
(2,975) |
360 |
(941) |
1,697 |
(1,859) |
(2,908) |
7,502 |
4,594 |
11,335 |
New orders and backlog |
2016 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2017 |
2018 |
|
|
|
Incoming orders |
95,600 |
24,400 |
33,200 |
37,400 |
35,700 |
130,700 |
40,900 |
|
|
|
Quarterly revenues |
80,685 |
21,598 |
26,430 |
33,011 |
41,304 |
122,343 |
31,553 |
|
|
|
Book-to-bill ratio |
1.18 |
1.13 |
1.26 |
1.13 |
0.86 |
1.07 |
1.30 |
|
|
|
Backlog |
|
40,800 |
48,500 |
62,200 |
61,300 |
|
70,200 |
|
|
|
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. *Quarterly amortisation of acquired intangibles is estimated data.
The group maintains healthy cash balances following its capital-raising last year. SNP recently amended the presentation of its accounts, with financial liabilities now including acquisition liabilities (see our previous update note). The Q1 operating cash outflow was €4.7m and, after capex of €1.4m, free cash outflow was €6.1m. The group paid €3.2m in acquisition payments during the quarter. The group’s net debt increased by €5.8m over the quarter to €32.6m. There is also a small pension deficit that we have included in our DCF valuation.
Exhibit 2: Balance sheet position
€m |
31-Dec-17 |
31-Mar-18 |
Cash |
(33.9) |
(24.3) |
Current financial liabilities |
11.2 |
7.4 |
Non-current financial liabilities |
49.5 |
49.5 |
Net debt/(cash) |
26.8 |
32.6 |
Pension deficit |
1.5 |
1.6 |
Adjusted net debt/(cash) |
28.4 |
34.2 |
Source: Company accounts
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
€'000s |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
56,236 |
80,685 |
122,343 |
151,249 |
165,297 |
179,476 |
Cost of sales |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Gross Profit |
56,236 |
80,685 |
122,343 |
151,249 |
165,297 |
179,476 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
5,484 |
8,524 |
3,268 |
10,882 |
18,343 |
22,454 |
Adjusted Operating Profit |
|
|
4,222 |
7,514 |
1,513 |
7,394 |
13,935 |
17,682 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0 |
(657) |
(2,021) |
(1,600) |
(1,600) |
(1,600) |
||
Exceptionals |
356 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Associates |
(3) |
8 |
(24) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
4,575 |
6,865 |
(532) |
5,794 |
12,335 |
16,082 |
||
Net Interest |
(828) |
(1,137) |
(1,327) |
(1,200) |
(1,000) |
(800) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
3,394 |
6,377 |
186 |
6,194 |
12,935 |
16,882 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
3,747 |
5,728 |
(1,859) |
4,594 |
11,335 |
15,282 |
Tax |
(1,195) |
(1,517) |
(807) |
(1,858) |
(3,880) |
(5,065) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
2,198 |
4,860 |
(620) |
4,336 |
9,054 |
11,817 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
2,552 |
4,211 |
(2,666) |
2,736 |
7,454 |
10,217 |
||
Minority interest |
0 |
(147) |
234 |
(267) |
(289) |
(312) |
||
Adjustments for normalised earnings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (norm) |
2,198 |
4,713 |
(386) |
4,069 |
8,766 |
11,506 |
||
Net income (FRS 3) |
2,552 |
4,064 |
(2,431) |
2,469 |
7,166 |
9,906 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
3.7 |
4.3 |
5.2 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
5.5 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
58.8 |
109.7 |
(7.4) |
74.3 |
160.1 |
210.2 |
EPS - normalised & fully diluted (c) |
|
|
58.8 |
109.7 |
(7.4) |
74.3 |
160.1 |
210.2 |
EPS - FRS 3 (c) |
|
|
68.3 |
94.6 |
(46.8) |
45.1 |
130.9 |
180.9 |
Dividend per share (c) |
34.00 |
39.00 |
0.00 |
30.00 |
40.00 |
50.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
9.8 |
10.6 |
2.7 |
7.2 |
11.1 |
12.5 |
||
Adjusted Operating Margin (%) |
7.5 |
9.3 |
1.2 |
4.9 |
8.4 |
9.9 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
15,243 |
30,109 |
75,171 |
74,588 |
73,094 |
71,176 |
Intangible Assets |
11,675 |
24,179 |
67,012 |
65,380 |
63,748 |
62,115 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,999 |
3,161 |
5,187 |
6,237 |
6,375 |
6,089 |
||
Other |
1,570 |
2,769 |
2,972 |
2,972 |
2,972 |
2,972 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
29,996 |
58,424 |
78,614 |
75,032 |
80,124 |
89,626 |
Stocks |
0 |
371 |
371 |
459 |
502 |
545 |
||
Debtors |
16,084 |
25,652 |
43,781 |
54,125 |
59,152 |
64,226 |
||
Cash |
13,769 |
31,914 |
33,877 |
19,863 |
19,885 |
24,270 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(13,703) |
(32,631) |
(40,531) |
(50,324) |
(54,623) |
(58,900) |
Creditors |
(11,101) |
(14,523) |
(29,295) |
(39,088) |
(43,387) |
(47,664) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(2,602) |
(18,108) |
(11,236) |
(11,236) |
(11,236) |
(11,236) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(15,513) |
(7,327) |
(53,157) |
(41,083) |
(33,509) |
(25,935) |
Long term borrowings |
(12,344) |
(5,531) |
(49,487) |
(44,487) |
(39,487) |
(34,487) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(3,169) |
(1,796) |
(3,670) |
3,404 |
5,978 |
8,552 |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
16,024 |
48,575 |
60,097 |
58,213 |
65,085 |
75,967 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
1,879 |
1,005 |
(5,316) |
10,159 |
17,548 |
21,589 |
Net Interest |
(167) |
53 |
(798) |
(1,200) |
(1,000) |
(800) |
||
Tax |
(554) |
(412) |
(1,366) |
(1,734) |
(3,622) |
(4,727) |
||
Capex |
(1,779) |
(3,451) |
(5,234) |
(4,537) |
(4,546) |
(4,487) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(3,228) |
(5,923) |
(28,783) |
(11,701) |
(1,716) |
0 |
||
Shares issued |
0 |
30,129 |
18,293 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(483) |
(1,264) |
(1,932) |
0 |
(1,642) |
(2,190) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(4,332) |
20,137 |
(25,136) |
(9,014) |
5,022 |
9,386 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(3,431) |
1,176 |
(8,275) |
26,847 |
35,861 |
30,839 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(275) |
(10,686) |
(9,985) |
0 |
0 |
() |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
1,176 |
(8,275) |
26,847 |
35,861 |
30,839 |
21,453 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Includes exceptional costs in FY17 and FY18. **Includes additional payments for Adepcon in FY18 and FY19, and final payments for RSP, Astrums/Hartung and Harlex in FY18.
|
|
Research: Metals & Mining
A strong Q3 saw the Tomingley Gold Operation (TGO) mine generate operating cash flows of A$21.2m, driving Alakane’s (ALK’s) cash pile to A$60.6m with a further A$8.4m held as bullion-on-hand. Two critical path catalysts are due in the final quarter of FY18, the final modular costing plan for the Dubbo Project (DP) and the way forward for extending the TGO’s mine life. The DP’s future viability has been proven viable technically, and has also been aided by a number of its products realising significant price gains (zirconium products and certain rare earth elements (REEs) related to magnets as well as hafnium and FeNb) driven by numerous supportive end-market changes. While financing the DP continues, we see ALK putting its own cash pile to use extending the life of the TGO’s processing facility via either UG mining or potentially exploration and development.