Allium Medical Solutions has reported FY16 financial results, which impressed with revenue growth of 42% to NIS7.4m vs NIS5.2m in 2015, in line with our expectations. Gross margin doubled to 30%. This increase comes mainly from Allium Stents and IBI Medical. We are encouraged to see that the company continued to execute on its business plan of organic growth and margin expansion; therefore, the investment case remains intact, in our view. We maintain our revenue CAGR forecast of 41% in 2016-20e and our DCF valuation of NIS1.95-2.08/share.
Written by
Allium Medical Solutions |
Growth continues, investment case reinforced |
FY16 update |
Medical devices |
16 March 2017 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Allium Medical Solutions has reported FY16 financial results, which impressed with revenue growth of 42% to NIS7.4m vs NIS5.2m in 2015, in line with our expectations. Gross margin doubled to 30%. This increase comes mainly from Allium Stents and IBI Medical. We are encouraged to see that the company continued to execute on its business plan of organic growth and margin expansion; therefore, the investment case remains intact, in our view. We maintain our revenue CAGR forecast of 41% in 2016-20e and our DCF valuation of NIS1.95-2.08/share.
Year |
Revenue (NISm) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/15 |
5.2 |
(18.5) |
(0.65) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/16 |
7.4 |
(22.0) |
(0.49) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/17e |
11.2 |
(15.7) |
(0.30) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/18e |
17.5 |
(7.1) |
(0.13) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT/EPS are normalised, excl. amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptionals.
Revenues grew 42% y-o-y; gross margin expands
Revenues grew 42% year-on-year with c 70% of sales coming from Allium Stents, and the rest mainly from IBI Medical (EndoFast urogynecology). While the main market was still Europe, other regions such as South Korea, Argentina, Australia, Canada and South Africa gained traction in 2016 as well. Allium has distribution agreements worth c NIS185m for its peripheral stents and IBI products which could continue to support a double-digit percentage increase in total revenues. Gross margin doubled from 15% in 2015 to 30% in 2016, due to economies of scale and increasing revenues. G&A expenses remained stable over 2016, increasing by 6% due to non-cash stock-based compensation expenses. S&M costs increased 38%, albeit from a low base of NIS2.1m to NIS2.9m. R&D spend was up 32% to NIS13.5m as a result of an increased investment related to Allevetix (gastroduodenal bypass sleeve), Gardia (embolic protection system) and the initiation of the TruLeaf mitral valve replacement project. Having incorporated FY16 numbers, we have slightly adjusted our cost and earnings forecasts.
R&D projects on track
During Q416, Allium announced the finalisation of Allevetix design freeze and positive in vivo data. A first in man trial is on track to start by YE17; additionally, a patent has been granted in China, the biggest global market for both obesity and diabetes. Gardia is on track to complete enrolment of a 100-patient trial in the US and present data in 2017, sufficient to expand its indication to the large opportunity of lower extremities. Finally, Allium will conduct a trial of its mitral valve replacement device in big animals this year.
Valuation: DCF of NIS1.95-2.08/share unchanged
We maintain our DCF valuation of NIS1.95-2.08/share. We estimate that end-2016 cash of NIS23.2m will be sufficient to fund operations over the next 12-24 months, depending on growth rates and cost control. Potential catalysts this year include continued regional expansion, delivery on growth expectations and Gardia data.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
NIS'000 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017e |
2018e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
4,916 |
5,178 |
7,353 |
11,196 |
17,470 |
Cost of Sales |
(5,699) |
(4,421) |
(5,171) |
(7,819) |
(10,126) |
||
Gross Profit |
(783) |
757 |
2,182 |
3,377 |
7,343 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(20,373) |
(16,333) |
(20,375) |
(14,728) |
(6,299) |
Operating Profit (before GW and except.) |
(20,758) |
(16,759) |
(20,757) |
(15,349) |
(6,858) |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
(2,032) |
(1,705) |
(1,579) |
(1,436) |
(1,293) |
||
Exceptionals |
(1,262) |
(720) |
(297) |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
(24,052) |
(19,184) |
(22,632) |
(16,784) |
(8,151) |
||
Net Interest |
(593) |
(1,748) |
(1,284) |
(361) |
(213) |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(21,351) |
(18,507) |
(22,041) |
(15,709) |
(7,070) |
Profit Before Tax (IFRS) |
|
|
(24,645) |
(20,932) |
(23,917) |
(17,145) |
(8,363) |
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(21,351) |
(18,507) |
(22,041) |
(15,709) |
(7,070) |
||
Profit After Tax (IFRS) |
(24,645) |
(20,932) |
(23,917) |
(17,145) |
(8,363) |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
18.43 |
28.53 |
44.97 |
52.94 |
52.94 |
||
EPS - normalised (NIS) |
|
|
(1.16) |
(0.65) |
(0.49) |
(0.30) |
(0.13) |
EPS - IFRS (NIS) |
|
|
(1.34) |
(0.73) |
(0.53) |
(0.32) |
(0.16) |
Dividend per share (NIS) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
-16% |
15% |
30% |
30% |
42% |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
28,218 |
25,612 |
23,616 |
21,660 |
19,908 |
Intangible Assets |
26,438 |
24,059 |
22,465 |
21,029 |
19,736 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,780 |
1,472 |
1,025 |
505 |
46 |
||
Restricted cash |
0 |
81 |
126 |
126 |
126 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
16,629 |
31,342 |
28,605 |
13,163 |
6,981 |
Stocks |
2,330 |
2,277 |
2,516 |
2,527 |
2,834 |
||
Debtors |
686 |
889 |
1,253 |
1,534 |
1,914 |
||
Cash |
12,940 |
27,053 |
23,202 |
7,469 |
599 |
||
Other |
673 |
1,123 |
1,634 |
1,634 |
1,634 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(5,560) |
(5,620) |
(12,660) |
(12,507) |
(13,037) |
Creditors |
(1,516) |
(1,524) |
(1,890) |
(1,737) |
(2,267) |
||
Accruals |
(1,820) |
(1,895) |
(936) |
(936) |
(936) |
||
Other short term liabilities |
(2,224) |
(2,201) |
(4,124) |
(4,124) |
(4,124) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(7,127) |
(6,207) |
(1,368) |
(1,268) |
(1,168) |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(7,127) |
(6,207) |
(1,368) |
(1,268) |
(1,168) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
32,160 |
45,127 |
38,193 |
21,048 |
12,685 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(19,026) |
(15,874) |
(17,259) |
(15,533) |
(6,670) |
Net Interest |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Capex |
(349) |
(164) |
(220) |
(100) |
(100) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
25,191 |
31,992 |
13,956 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(41) |
(1,841) |
(328) |
(100) |
(100) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
5,775 |
14,113 |
(3,851) |
(15,733) |
(6,870) |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(7,165) |
(12,940) |
(27,053) |
(23,202) |
(7,469) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(12,940) |
(27,053) |
(23,202) |
(7,469) |
(599) |
Source: Edison Investment Research, Allium Medical Solutions accounts.
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New management is driving an enhanced commercial focus. This was not wholly apparent in headline FY16 results, but was evident in strategic actions taken which are set to accelerate in FY17. Our sense is that the business will respond quickly to these initiatives. Eurocell’s share price has started to respond to the new corporate messaging and the delivery of profitable revenue growth is likely to attract further support.