Global Bioenergies
Written by
Global Bioenergies |
String of successes and new financing |
Trading update |
Alternative energy |
18 November 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Analysts
Global Bioenergies is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Global Bioenergies (GBE) has delivered a string of industrial and commercial successes, with completion of construction at the Leuna plant, more progress on second-generation feedstock development and new potential clients. It has secured significant new financing and delivered reasonable H1 results. Our valuation remains unchanged at €37-56/share.
Year |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/14 |
3.2 |
(9.2) |
(2.9) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/15 |
2.2 |
(12.2) |
(4.0) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/16e |
2.2 |
(12.1) |
(3.4) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/17e |
4.4 |
(10.9) |
(3.0) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Forecasts updated to reflect results & new financing
GBE has reported H116 results with an operating loss of €6.4m, net loss of €6.7m and operating cash outflow of €5.0m. This compared to our forecast (pre-financing) of an operating loss of €10.4m, net loss of €9.2m and operating cash outflow of €9.7m for 2016. Period-end net debt stood at €0.7m. The company has also announced an €11.25m convertible bond issue that will underpin its upcoming development, with flexible drawdown conditions. We have adjusted our forecast to reflect slightly more conservative assumptions, as well as the new financing. Our EBIT loss increases to €11.7m (from €10.4m) and net loss/ share to -€3.4 (-€2.9).
String of commercial and industrial successes
The company has shown impressive progress on commercialisation, with several new, large industrial companies taking up isobutene test batches and two doing so with a view to becoming future clients of the first joint venture, IBN-One. We interpret the award of engineering contracts for IBN-One to a very solid consortium as good progress that underpins confidence in execution. Production is expected to start in 2018. Meanwhile, the company has produced first isobutene from agricultural residues in collaboration with Clariant and announced a new collaboration with Preem, Sekab and Sveaskog for production of high-performance fuels from feedstocks based on forestry residues. These second-generation feedstock developments are important for diversification, cost reduction and reduction of dependency on commodities. They are also significant in terms of opening a new economic value chain, forestry. Importantly, it has now completed construction of the Leuna plant.
Valuation: €37-56/share unchanged
We value GBE on a DCF methodology with risk-weighted cash flows to reflect the early-stage nature of the business. Our valuation range remains unchanged at €37-56/share. We note that the steps delivered in H1 are indicative of tangible commercialisation progress, which should help de-risk cash flows. Further progress on new feedstock development might reduce the dependence on commodities prices.
Consistent progress and new financing
H1 results and new financing
Global Bioenergies has reported H1 results that show disciplined cost and cash management with consistent expansion. The company reported an operating loss of €6.4m and net loss of €6.7m. This compares to our FY16 forecast operating and net loss of €10.4m and €9.2m pre-financing, respectively (see below for our updated forecasts).
The build-up of the Leuna demonstration plant is progressing in line with plan and budget, which is showing through in the results. Capex was €3.6m, chiefly for Leuna. With this, the bulk of investment for the plant is now completed. The Leuna investment is financed by a €4.4m bank loan, as well as €5.7m of government subsidies. Of that, €3.7m is still to be received before the end of 2017. Correspondingly, gross cash stood at €9.1m at the end of June, vs €10.4m at the end of 2015. With this, the company has tipped into net debt of €0.7m. GBE has announced an €11.25m convertible bond (with mandatory conversion into equity) launched in 15 successive tranches with Bracknor Investments, for the further development and scaling up of the isobutene programme, as well as development of the other follow-on programmes, ie butadiene and propylene. It also intends to use the funding for further feedstock diversification and commercialisation. In total, this could provide the company with €18m of cash, through €11.25m from the convertible/warrants and an additional €6.75m from the potential option conversion. It is worth noting that GBE can dictate the rhythm of the various tranches, as well as suspending drawdown. This gives it good flexibility to adapt financing to its speed of development, while optimising the cost of financing. We see this as a step-up of funding that is illustrative of the move to the next level, which is increased industrial scale and commercialisation.
Exhibit 1: H1 results
H115 |
H116 |
% change y-o-y |
FY15 |
|
Revenues |
1.5 |
1.5 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
EBITDA |
(5.5) |
(5.8) |
4.7 |
(11.0) |
EBIT |
(6.0) |
(6.4) |
7.7 |
(12.0) |
Net loss |
(4.3) |
(6.7) |
(36.4) |
(10.3) |
Operating cash outflow |
(8.8) |
(5.0) |
(43.5) |
(8.8) |
Capex |
(3.6) |
(4.5) |
24.7 |
(4.5) |
Net debt |
0.0 |
0.7 |
N/M |
0.0 |
Source: Global Bioenergies, Edison Investment Research
Updating our forecast
We have updated our forecast to reflect the following:
■
a more conservative view on revenues: we have pushed the first upfront payment for IBN-One into 2017, as we believe a few weeks of change to the start of the Leuna plant, to which it is connected, could effectively make a difference between revenue being booked in 2016 or 2017;
■
higher capex to reflect the run rate for Leuna; and
■
the new convertible and equity financing.
With this, our revenue forecast for 2016 is €2.2m (from €4.7m). This feeds through to an EBIT loss of €11.7m (from €10.4m) and net loss of €10.5m (from €9.2m). The negative cash flow impact of our increased capex, now €5.3m (from €1.4m) is compensated for by the positive impact of the additional equity financing of €5.5m. As a result, we now forecast a net cash outflow after financing of €5.1m for 2016 (from €4.5m). Consequently, we forecast GBE to close 2016 with €5m of gross cash and net debt of €5m.
Exhibit 2: Revised estimates
€m |
2016e |
2017e |
||
Old |
New |
Old |
New |
|
Revenues |
4.7 |
2.2 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
EBIT |
(10.4) |
(11.7) |
(9.1) |
(10.4) |
EPS (€) |
(2.93) |
(3.35) |
(2.31) |
(2.95) |
Source: Edison Investment Research
String of commercial successes
GBE continues to make good progress and we can now see it moving from an industrial towards a commercial focus. The company has signed a raft of commercial agreements, notably:
■
access rights to GBE’s isooctane technology from Leuna and IBN-One for speciality fuels applications for Aspen;
■
collaboration with Preem, Sekab and Sveaskog for production for the production of high-performance fuels from feedstocks based on forestry residues. Beyond being yet another point of evidence for second-generation feedstocks, this is a particularly important deal as it opens up a potential new market. The forestry sector is struggling with structural decline and the potential to build up a new value chain such as this is significant. It seems that GBE’s technology could become a key component in such a value chain;
■
delivery of first batches of isobutene (produced at the Pomacle plant) to Arlanxeo, a rubber producer for tyre applications, and to Clariant for other speciality applications; and
■
winning a potential first client: L’Oréal will test initial isobutene batches in the context of a 44-month industrial and commercial partnership programme between GBE, Cristal Union and L’Oréal, with a view to becoming a potential customer of IBN-One. This is within the broader co-operation with L’Oréal and IBN-One and GBE, which is financed by Ademe with €9m.
Meanwhile, GBE has awarded front-end engineering contracts for the IBN-One plant to a consortium including Technip and IPSB, a speciality engineer in the sugar and biotech space. The front-end engineering phase will run for 12 months. We view the choice of engineering contractors as a very solid one, with a major blue-chip name complemented by a strong specialist in IBN-One’s particular niche. This shows good execution and swift progress on commercialisation and, as such, is a signal that underpins confidence, in our view. The start of construction will be determined in conjunction with the ongoing development of Leuna, which remains the key focus. With Leuna, there is good progress as evidenced by the very recent announcement that construction is now complete.
Further progress on feedstock development
GBE has made further important progress on second-generation feedstock development. It has achieved first production of isobutene from wheat straw hydrolysate at pre-industrial scale at the Pomacle site in collaboration with Clariant. Clariant has produced second-generation sugars from agricultural residues, which GBE has then used as isobutene production feedstock. This follows the recent announcement of a collaboration with Preem, Sekab and Sveaskog, all Swedish, for the development of high-performance fuels on the basis of forest feedstocks.
These are yet further steps that illustrate that the company is making strides in firstly diversifying feedstocks, secondly reducing feedstock cost and last, but not least, moving towards reducing the dependency on commodity (oil/sugar) spreads.
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
€m |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
||
Year end 31 December |
FGAAP |
FGAAP |
FGAAP |
FGAAP |
FGAAP |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Grants |
0.03 |
1.36 |
0.86 |
1.20 |
0.90 |
||
Other revenue |
2.43 |
1.81 |
1.37 |
1.00 |
3.50 |
||
Revenue |
|
|
2.46 |
3.17 |
2.23 |
2.20 |
4.40 |
Operating Expenses |
(6.36) |
(7.85) |
(6.97) |
(7.49) |
(7.82) |
||
Gross Profit |
(3.90) |
(4.69) |
(4.75) |
(5.29) |
(3.42) |
||
EBITDA |
(6.55) |
(8.99) |
(11.04) |
(10.60) |
(8.82) |
||
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
(6.66) |
(9.50) |
(12.01) |
(11.67) |
(10.42) |
|
Amortisation |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Exceptionals |
(0.00) |
0.00 |
0.11 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Other |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Operating Profit |
(6.67) |
(9.50) |
(11.90) |
(11.67) |
(10.42) |
||
Net Interest |
0.13 |
0.29 |
(0.26) |
(0.45) |
(0.50) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(6.54) |
(9.21) |
(12.16) |
(12.12) |
(10.92) |
Tax |
1.41 |
1.59 |
1.99 |
1.60 |
1.65 |
||
Minority interests |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Net income (Adj NP) |
(5.12) |
(7.62) |
(10.29) |
(10.53) |
(9.27) |
||
Net income (Reported) |
(5.12) |
(7.62) |
(10.18) |
(10.53) |
(9.27) |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
2.5 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
||
EPS - normalised fully diluted (€) |
|
|
(2.05) |
(2.93) |
(3.96) |
(3.35) |
(2.95) |
EPS - (Reported) (€) |
|
|
(2.05) |
(2.93) |
(3.91) |
(3.35) |
(2.95) |
Gross Margin (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
1.76 |
3.97 |
7.43 |
11.68 |
12.52 |
Intangible Assets |
0.09 |
0.14 |
0.11 |
0.11 |
0.11 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1.58 |
3.72 |
7.18 |
11.43 |
12.27 |
||
Investments |
0.09 |
0.11 |
0.14 |
0.14 |
0.14 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
25.72 |
20.65 |
14.78 |
9.78 |
9.39 |
Stocks |
2.02 |
0.29 |
0.30 |
0.21 |
0.21 |
||
Debtors |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.34 |
0.52 |
0.94 |
||
Cash |
23.70 |
15.66 |
10.42 |
5.33 |
4.50 |
||
Other |
0.00 |
4.71 |
3.73 |
3.73 |
3.73 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(0.72) |
(2.40) |
(3.18) |
(1.21) |
(1.93) |
Creditors |
(0.72) |
(2.40) |
(3.18) |
(1.21) |
(1.93) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(3.74) |
(5.64) |
(11.10) |
(11.13) |
(11.13) |
Long term borrowings |
(2.46) |
(4.16) |
(10.44) |
(10.44) |
(10.44) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(1.28) |
(1.48) |
(0.66) |
(0.69) |
(0.69) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
23.02 |
16.58 |
7.93 |
9.12 |
8.85 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(4.33) |
(8.01) |
(8.84) |
(11.51) |
(7.38) |
Net Interest |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Tax |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Capex |
(0.79) |
(2.80) |
(4.49) |
(5.33) |
(2.44) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Financing |
21.73 |
1.07 |
1.81 |
11.75^ |
9.00 |
||
Dividends |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
16.62 |
(9.74) |
(11.52) |
(5.09) |
(0.82) |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(4.62) |
(21.24) |
(11.50) |
0.02 |
5.11 |
Other |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
FX adjustments |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(21.24) |
(11.50) |
0.02 |
5.11 |
5.94 |
Source: Global Bioenergies and Edison Investment Research. Note: 2016/17 financing includes convertible funding, which was modelled as an equity transaction assuming the conversion price of €25/share. We assume that three tranches are exercised in 2016 and the remainder in 2017.
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