Last close As at 05/08/2026
EUR3.07
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
EUR22m
Research: Consumer
bet-at-home’s (BAH’s) Q320 results showed a strong increase in EBITDA of 27% whereas revenue continued to be affected by prior regulatory changes. After many years of uncertainty (and confusion), new regulations in Germany effective from July 2021 and transition regulations effective from the middle of October 2020 will broadly halve expectations for EBITDA next year. Despite the favourable award of a nationwide online sports betting licence to BAH, new restrictions to protect players, for example on betting limits and customer acquisition, will affect sports and gaming. In addition, restrictions on the types of bets than can be offered (eg in-game betting), the types of casino games that can be offered (blackjack and roulette are banned) and increased competition will affect the sports and gaming segments to different extents. The lower profit base and cash flow will also reduce dividend distributions.
bet-at-home |
German regulation less favourable |
Q320 results |
Travel & leisure |
12 November 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
bet-at-home is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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bet-at-home’s (BAH’s) Q320 results showed a strong increase in EBITDA of 27% whereas revenue continued to be affected by prior regulatory changes. After many years of uncertainty (and confusion), new regulations in Germany effective from July 2021 and transition regulations effective from the middle of October 2020 will broadly halve expectations for EBITDA next year. Despite the favourable award of a nationwide online sports betting licence to BAH, new restrictions to protect players, for example on betting limits and customer acquisition, will affect sports and gaming. In addition, restrictions on the types of bets than can be offered (eg in-game betting), the types of casino games that can be offered (blackjack and roulette are banned) and increased competition will affect the sports and gaming segments to different extents. The lower profit base and cash flow will also reduce dividend distributions.
Year end |
Revenue (GGR) (€m) |
EBITDA* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/18 |
143.4 |
35.8 |
**4.59 |
2.00 |
6.7 |
21.2 |
12/19 |
143.3 |
35.2 |
4.26 |
2.40 |
7.2 |
6.5 |
12/20e |
127.9 |
26.1 |
2.79 |
1.35 |
11.0 |
7.8 |
12/21e |
107.8 |
13.8 |
1.35 |
1.45 |
22.7 |
4.4 |
Note: GGR: gross gaming revenue. *EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. **Restated for exceptional item.
Q320: Improved profitability
bet-at-home’s Q320 results continued to be affected by the Swiss IP blocking that commenced in Q319 with a 14% decline in GGR to €30.7m. Sports betting increased by 40% q-o-q, as major events shifted from Q220 due to the end of COVID-19 lockdowns. EBITDA grew strongly, by 27% y-o-y, to €7.2m leading to a much improved margin of 23.4% (15.8% in Q319), as (relative to GGR) higher betting fees (due to mix) and personnel costs were compensated for by lower marketing and other costs.
FY21: Heavily affected by German regulation changes
Management retained its existing guidance for FY20 and issued new guidance for FY21. We incorporate management’s worst-case estimate (which could be increased later) from the German regulation changes: GGR and EBITDA for FY21 were lower by €20m and €13m respectively versus FY20, which are reductions of 15% and 49% versus our prior forecasts. In addition, we assume a lower dividend; with no formal dividend policy we assume the company distributes the lower of its free cash flow per share and EPS in the forecast year.
Valuation: Prospective FY21 dividend yield of 4.4%
The share price has reacted negatively to the reduced guidance for FY21. On our new forecasts, the P/E for FY21 has increased to 22.7x, and the yield has reduced to 4.4%, which is well supported by the company’s net cash position.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€'m |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020e |
2021e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
138.7 |
145.4 |
143.4 |
143.3 |
127.9 |
107.8 |
Cost of Sales |
(25.8) |
(27.6) |
(28.2) |
(25.8) |
(23.6) |
(19.9) |
||
Net Gaming Revenue |
112.9 |
117.8 |
115.1 |
117.5 |
104.3 |
88.0 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
33.0 |
36.4 |
35.8 |
35.2 |
26.1 |
13.8 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
31.9 |
35.1 |
34.5 |
33.3 |
24.1 |
11.8 |
|
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
(0.9) |
0.4 |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Reported operating profit |
31.9 |
34.1 |
34.9 |
33.2 |
24.1 |
11.8 |
||
Net Interest |
2.2 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
34.1 |
36.6 |
34.6 |
33.2 |
24.0 |
11.6 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
34.1 |
35.7 |
35.0 |
33.1 |
24.0 |
11.6 |
Reported tax |
(3.1) |
(2.8) |
(2.4) |
(15.1) |
(4.4) |
(2.2) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
31.0 |
33.8 |
32.2 |
29.9 |
19.6 |
9.5 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
31.0 |
32.8 |
32.6 |
18.0 |
19.6 |
9.5 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
31.0 |
33.8 |
32.2 |
29.9 |
19.6 |
9.5 |
||
Net income (reported) |
31.0 |
32.8 |
32.6 |
18.0 |
19.6 |
9.5 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
||
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
441.58 |
481.21 |
458.56 |
426.20 |
278.66 |
134.98 |
EPS - diluted normalised (€) |
|
|
4.42 |
4.81 |
4.59 |
4.26 |
2.79 |
1.35 |
EPS - basic reported (€) |
|
|
4.42 |
4.68 |
4.65 |
2.56 |
2.79 |
1.35 |
Dividend per share (c) |
750.00 |
750.00 |
650.00 |
200.00 |
240.00 |
135.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
14.0 |
4.8 |
(-1.4) |
(-0.0) |
(-10.8) |
(-15.7) |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
81.4 |
81.0 |
80.3 |
82.0 |
81.6 |
81.6 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
23.8 |
25.0 |
25.0 |
24.6 |
20.4 |
12.8 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
23.0 |
24.1 |
24.1 |
23.2 |
18.9 |
10.9 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
4.9 |
4.0 |
3.4 |
8.2 |
7.4 |
6.6 |
Intangible Assets |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
||
Tangible Assets |
2.9 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
5.9 |
5.3 |
4.7 |
||
Investments & other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
140.5 |
120.6 |
99.9 |
87.0 |
89.5 |
89.0 |
Stocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Debtors |
47.9 |
16.9 |
20.1 |
30.4 |
29.6 |
28.7 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
82.3 |
94.4 |
70.6 |
47.4 |
51.4 |
51.9 |
||
Customer cash |
9.5 |
7.5 |
7.7 |
7.4 |
6.6 |
6.6 |
||
Other |
0.7 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(35.1) |
(35.3) |
(34.0) |
(50.9) |
(49.9) |
(48.7) |
Creditors |
(0.5) |
(3.5) |
(3.3) |
(4.2) |
(4.0) |
(3.8) |
||
Short term provisions/ tax liabilities |
(21.4) |
(18.9) |
(19.2) |
(33.7) |
(33.7) |
(33.7) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(13.2) |
(12.8) |
(11.5) |
(13.1) |
(12.3) |
(11.2) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(0.7) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(2.6) |
(2.6) |
(2.6) |
Long term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(0.7) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(2.6) |
(2.6) |
(2.6) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
109.6 |
89.3 |
69.3 |
41.6 |
44.3 |
44.3 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
32.5 |
37.0 |
36.3 |
35.0 |
25.8 |
13.4 |
||
Working capital |
(1.6) |
(3.0) |
(7.5) |
6.0 |
(0.3) |
(0.3) |
||
Exceptional & other |
1.5 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
(1.0) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Tax |
0.0 |
(3.4) |
(5.0) |
(10.2) |
(4.4) |
(2.2) |
||
Operating cash flow |
|
|
32.4 |
31.3 |
24.8 |
29.9 |
21.1 |
11.0 |
Capex |
(1.3) |
(0.5) |
(0.7) |
(2.5) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
26.0 |
29.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Equity financing |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
(15.8) |
(52.6) |
(52.6) |
(45.6) |
(16.8) |
(9.5) |
||
Other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.8) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
41.3 |
7.2 |
(28.5) |
(19.0) |
3.2 |
0.5 |
||
Opening (cash) |
|
|
(48.8) |
(90.1) |
(97.3) |
(68.8) |
(49.8) |
(53.0) |
FX |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing (cash) |
|
|
(90.1) |
(97.3) |
(68.8) |
(49.8) |
(53.0) |
(53.5) |
Closing net debt/(cash) ex client money |
|
|
(82.3) |
(94.4) |
(70.6) |
(47.4) |
(51.4) |
(51.9) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Healthcare
Reported 9M20 numbers highlight continual strength in sales across key franchises and ongoing margin expansion. ROVI reported operating revenue of €302.1m (+12%). Within the low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) franchise (+26% to €157.7m), biosimilar enoxaparin (Becat) performed strongly, while the toll manufacturing division (+38% to €62.7m) benefited from the redirection of strategy to high value-added products. EBITDA increased 47% to €69.7m in 9M20, reflecting lower R&D costs and increasing operational leverage. ROVI has given guidance for FY21 of mid-single-digit growth in total operating revenues (excluding the manufacture of Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine candidate). The US NDA filing for DORIA is expected in Q420, and in Europe we expect approval and launch in 2021. We value ROVI at €1.57bn.