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NetScientific — Fosun Pharma investing in Glycotest

NetScientific — Fosun Pharma investing in Glycotest

NetScientific announced the completion of a $10m Series A funding for Glycotest with Fosun Pharma, a Chinese pharmaceutical company with a market capitalisation of HK$71bn. As part of the transaction, Fosun will invest an initial tranche of $3m, with another $7m due upon the completion of certain milestones, in return for a 40% interest in Glycotest as well as the China rights for its hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) panel. The transaction still needs to be approved by regulatory authorities in both China and the US (where Glycotest is based). Approval is expected in around 30 days’ time.

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

NetScientific

Fosun Pharma investing in Glycotest

Financial update

Pharma & biotech

24 October 2018

Price

29.00p

Market cap

£23m

US$1.40/£

Net cash (£m) at 30 June 2018

7.1

Shares in issue

78.6m

Free float

20.2%

Code

NSCI

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(9.4)

(19.7)

(30.1)

Rel (local)

(1.8)

(11.3)

(24.3)

52-week high/low

73.5p

26.6p

Business description

NetScientific is a healthcare IP commercialisation group with an investment strategy focused on sourcing, funding and commercialising technologies. Its portfolio of four core investments and one material investment is in three main sectors: digital health (Wanda), diagnostics (Vortex, ProAxsis, Glycotest) and therapeutics (PDS Biotechnology).

Next event

Regulatory approval of Series A for Glycotest

Q418

Analysts

Maxim Jacobs

+1 646 653 7027

Briana Warschun

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

NetScientific is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

NetScientific announced the completion of a $10m Series A funding for Glycotest with Fosun Pharma, a Chinese pharmaceutical company with a market capitalisation of HK$71bn. As part of the transaction, Fosun will invest an initial tranche of $3m, with another $7m due upon the completion of certain milestones, in return for a 40% interest in Glycotest as well as the China rights for its hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) panel. The transaction still needs to be approved by regulatory authorities in both China and the US (where Glycotest is based). Approval is expected in around 30 days’ time.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/16

0.5

(12.3)

(20.6)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/17

0.4

(9.5)

(13.6)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/18e

0.4

(11.1)

(8.5)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/19e

2.3

(13.4)

(12.3)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Fosun Pharma receives China rights to HCC panel

Besides the 40% interest in Glycotest, Fosun will receive the exclusive China rights to manufacture and sell Glycotest’s panel for HCC as well as its pipeline tests. Glycotest will receive a royalty on sales and retain rights to markets outside of China.

Around 800,000 new cases of HCC per year

HCC is the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths worldwide and the fifth leading cause in the US, with an increasing incidence. According to the International Agency for Research on Cancer, there were 782,000 new cases of HCC worldwide in 2012, with approximately half of them occurring in China.

Glycotest excels in hard-to-find HCC

Recent clinical results confirmed those from earlier studies, which demonstrated that the HCC test could efficiently identify 86% of patients who were missed by an alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) test and even 78% of those who were AFP-negative in the early-stage disease cohort. This supports the commercial proposition for the test, because the ability to catch more patients at an earlier stage will allow them to be treated surgically and significantly reduce downstream costs.

Valuation: £50.6m or 64p per share

We are maintaining our valuation of NetScientific at £50.6m or 64p per share. We will update our valuation upon regulatory approval of this investment from both the Chinese and American authorities. Besides updating NetScientific’s ownership stake, we will review our revenue estimates, particularly for the Chinese market.

Glycotest Series A financing

NetScientific has announced the completion of a $10m Series A financing for Glycotest with Fosun Pharma. Glycotest will receive an upfront payment of $3m, with the remaining $7m due on the completion of certain milestones, while Fosun Pharma will receive a 40% equity stake in Glycotest as well as the China rights for its HCC panel. The milestones are expected to be completed within the next 18 months. The transaction is contingent on outbound direct investment approval in China, which typically takes around 20 days, as well as approval from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US. Once approved, NetScientific will retain a controlling interest of 51.5% in Glycotest on a fully diluted basis. Glycotest will use the proceeds to bring the HCC panel towards commercial launch in the US, transfer the HCC panel technology to Fosun and further develop pipeline tests for liver fibrosis and cholangiocarcinoma.

As a reminder, earlier this year Glycotest announced that it had completed a clinical trial measuring the accuracy of its blood-based test for the detection of HCC. The test combines a novel lectin immunoassay with three other biomarkers and demographic data to determine if a patient has developed the disease. The study was performed in China on 149 patients with chronic liver disease under surveillance for the development of HCC. HCC is commonly secondary to other liver diseases, such as hepatitis and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, and therefore there is a population of known at-risk individuals who require routine screening. The current standard biomarker test for these patients is AFP and the goal of the Glycotest technology is to improve on this standard by detecting both earlier forms of cancer and cancer in those patients with low AFP levels.

The data from this trial are very similar to previous data using the assay (Exhibit 1). It was able to identify patients with HCC with 93% sensitivity at 92% specificity. In a previous study, composed of blood samples of 208 people with either HCC or cirrhosis, the test was able to identify HCC with a 95% sensitivity and 90% specificity. The sensitivity of AFP found in this previous study (65%) is largely in line with what has been reported in the literature: at the 20ng/mL cut-off sensitivities range from 47% to 68% with specificities in the range of 80% to 91%.1 The Glycotest data also compare attractively to ultrasound, which is another commonly used screening methodology (although there is a wide range of sensitivity for the practice): 60.5% sensitivity and 96.9% specificity.1 The company has not done a direct comparison to ultrasound yet, however.

  Colli A, et al. (2006) Accuracy of Ultrasonography, Spiral CT, Magnetic Resonance, and Alpha-Fetoprotein in Diagnosing Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Systematic Review. Am J Gastroenerol 101, 513-523.

Exhibit 1: Comparison of HCC detection methods

Source: Glycotest, Colli, et al. Note: AFP representative statistics from previous Glycotest study. *Ultrasound historical comparison.

The company provided an additional analysis in the new data: the Glycotest assay was able to identify 86% of patients with HCC that were undetected by AFP (<20ng/mL), which conclusively demonstrates the superiority of the new test. When the same analysis was performed in the cohort of patients with early disease, the HCC panel was able to identify 78% of the patients that were missed by AFP, which indicates it may have considerable clinical utility.

Valuation

We are maintaining our valuation of NetScientific at £50.6m or 64p per share. We will update our valuation upon regulatory approval of this investment from both the Chinese and American authorities. Besides updating NetScientific’s ownership stake, we will review our revenue estimates, particularly for the Chinese market as well as the probability of success for Glycotest, as we view the Fosun Pharma deal as validating. Based on preliminary calculations, if we were to increase the probability of success for Glycotest to 25% and added the rNPV for China (with conservative launch assumptions), the value of Glycotest as a whole would increase to £22.6m from £15.4m. However, as the stake for NetScientific would decrease from 66.7% to 51.5%, the value of NetScientific’s portion would only increase from £10.3m to £11.7m.

Exhibit 2: Valuation of NetScientific

Portfolio company

Probability of success

Profitability

Peak sales (£m)

Margin

rNPV
(£m)

Ownership

Share value
(£m)

Vortex

15.0%

2022

138

42%

12.1

66.1%

8.0

Wanda

7.5%

2020

326

51%

19.8

61.8%

12.3

ProAxsis

15.0%

2020

47

50%

15.6

54.0%

8.4

Glycotest

20.0%

2021

113

50%

15.4

66.7%

10.3

PDS

10.0%

2022

270

56%

35.1

13.1%

4.6

Total

 

 

 

 

 

 

43.5

Net cash and equivalents (H118) (£m)

7.1

Total firm value (£m)

50.6

Total shares (m)

78.6

Value per share (p)

64

Source: NetScientific reports, Edison Investment Research

Financials

NetScientific recently reported revenue of £0.13m in H118, down from £0.16m in H117. R&D came in at £1.9m, down 36.1% compared to H117, but down only 8.8% compared to H217. SG&A expense fell 22.3% to £2.3m compared to the same period a year ago, but was up 1.2% sequentially. Loss from operations was £4.6m, down 24.8% compared to H117.

Cash as of 30 June was £7.1m and we estimate that the company will need to raise additional funds in the next six months. We record a financing shortfall as £5.8m in illustrative debt in 2018 and currently estimate the need to raise an additional £10m in 2019 and £5m in 2020. Once approved by regulatory authorities, the Glycotest Series A will reduce the financing shortfall by $3m immediately and then another $7m as the milestones are completed over the next 18 months.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

£000s

2016

2017

2018e

2019e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

518

386

377

2,295

Cost of Sales

(255)

(245)

(188)

(653)

Gross Profit

263

141

188

1,642

Research and development

(7,443)

(5,177)

(4,924)

(5,114)

Selling, general & administrative

(5,001)

(5,281)

(5,570)

(8,301)

EBITDA

 

 

(12,570)

(10,814)

(11,347)

(12,019)

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

(12,429)

(10,593)

(11,101)

(11,773)

Intangible Amortisation

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals/Other

(666)

0

0

0

Operating Profit

(13,095)

(10,593)

(11,101)

(11,773)

Net Interest

86

1,058

29

(1,586)

Other (change in fair value of warrants)

(49)

(45)

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(12,343)

(9,535)

(11,072)

(13,359)

Profit Before Tax (IFRS)

 

 

(13,058)

(9,580)

(11,072)

(13,359)

Tax

(18)

202

22

281

Deferred tax

0

0

0

0

Profit After Tax (norm)

(12,361)

(9,333)

(11,050)

(13,079)

Profit After Tax (IFRS)

(13,076)

(9,378)

(11,050)

(13,079)

Minority interest

1,881

1,060

4,647

3,393

Profit After Tax after minority interest (FRS 3)

(11,195)

(8,318)

(6,403)

(9,686)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

51.1

61.0

75.8

78.6

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

(20.6)

(13.6)

(8.5)

(12.3)

EPS - IFRS (p)

 

 

(21.9)

(13.6)

(8.5)

(12.3)

Dividend per share (p)

0

0

0

0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

4,054

3,805

7,734

9,867

Intangible Assets

0

0

0

0

Tangible Assets

779

891

1,058

1,211

Other

3,275

2,914

6,676

8,656

Current Assets

 

 

11,034

7,968

7,064

3,801

Stocks

0

86

331

287

Debtors

1,578

1,014

1,057

229

Cash

9,456

6,868

5,676

3,285

Other

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(2,172)

(905)

(1,112)

(2,646)

Creditors

(2,044)

(777)

(978)

(2,512)

Short term borrowings

(128)

(128)

(134)

(134)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(80)

(70)

(5,864)

(15,864)

Long term borrowings

(80)

(70)

(5,864)

(15,864)

Other long term liabilities

0

0

0

0

Net Assets

 

 

12,836

10,798

7,822

(4,842)

Minority Interest

(3,875)

(4,573)

(9,220)

(12,613)

Shareholder Equity

 

 

8,961

6,225

(1,398)

(17,455)

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(12,939)

(10,479)

(11,251)

(8,706)

Net Interest

43

(11)

(13)

(1,586)

Tax

112

(131)

24

281

Capex

(457)

(399)

(399)

(399)

Acquisitions/disposals

(1,261)

1,310

0

(1,980)

Financing

0

8,083

5,000

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

Other

66

(574)

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(14,436)

(2,201)

(6,639)

(12,391)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(23,189)

(9,248)

(6,670)

322

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

Exchange rate movements

(603)

387

0

0

Other

1,098

(764)

(353)

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(9,248)

(6,670)

322

12,714

Source: NetScientific reports, Edison Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by NetScientific and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

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US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2018 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by NetScientific and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd (AFSL: 427484)) and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2018. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: TMT

1Spatial — Building a platform for sustainable growth

H1 results showed good progress and financial discipline, significantly expanding EBITDA and reducing operating losses. A strong pipeline should support a return to growth in H2 and our estimates are unchanged. There is still work to do on the transformation, but by focusing on delivering repeatable spatial solutions based around the company’s core 1Integrate IP, we believe that the company is laying the foundations to deliver sustainable growth and margin expansion.

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