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Nanoco’s announcement that it has fulfilled its first commercial order heralds the company’s transition from a development-stage company to a commercial supplier of quantum materials. The order provides support for our FY24 forecasts and is a key milestone on the company’s pathway towards becoming self-financing in FY25, with the potential to scale up significantly beyond that, if design wins in high-volume sensing applications can be secured.
Nanoco Group |
First commercial order fulfilled – major milestone |
Commercial order |
Tech hardware and equipment |
15 November 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
Analysts
Nanoco Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Nanoco’s announcement that it has fulfilled its first commercial order heralds the company’s transition from a development-stage company to a commercial supplier of quantum materials. The order provides support for our FY24 forecasts and is a key milestone on the company’s pathway towards becoming self-financing in FY25, with the potential to scale up significantly beyond that, if design wins in high-volume sensing applications can be secured.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
EBITDA* (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
EV/sales |
P/E |
07/21 |
2.1 |
(2.8) |
(4.7) |
(1.3) |
26.2 |
N/A |
07/22 |
2.5 |
(2.1) |
(4.6) |
(1.3) |
22.2 |
N/A |
07/23 |
5.6 |
(0.4) |
(3.6) |
(0.7) |
9.8 |
N/A |
07/24e |
8.6 |
1.3 |
(0.4) |
(0.1) |
6.4 |
N/A |
Note: *EBITDA, PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
This is Nanoco’s first commercial order, meaning that its materials will, for the first time, be used in sensors incorporated into commercially available products. We assume the order is for Nanoco’s European customer (a major supplier to the electronics industry) and as it has already been fulfilled (shipped and accepted by the customer) revenues for the order will have already been recognised. As flagged at the results, the order was for two of Nanoco’s first-generation sensing materials for sensing applications and will be for relatively low-volume (undisclosed) applications initially. As such, this announcement provides support for our current FY24 estimates. Clearly, Nanoco’s customer will be seeking to expand its customer base and achieve design wins into higher-volume applications to make a return on its own investment. So, while larger, follow-on orders cannot be assumed, they should come in over FY24 and/or FY25 if all goes to plan.
This is the second of three key milestones laid out by management at the full year results, which paves the way towards the company becoming self-financing in FY25 and a potential acceleration beyond that. Earlier this month, Nanoco announced a two-year joint development agreement (JDA) with its Asian customer to optimise its second-generation materials for use across a variety of sensing applications. Nanoco also stated in its preliminary results that it was seeking a new deeper and longer-duration JDA for next-generation materials with its European customer. The group aims to add a third development partner, potentially in display, in FY24. In the longer term, the pursuit of potential IP infringers could open up other commercial opportunities or licensing opportunities.
Nanoco’s current market cap of £58m is broadly similar to the planned £33–40m shareholder return (mechanism to be determined) plus the £20m expected to be retained. The market is therefore factoring in almost no value for the company’s commercial opportunities, which have taken a meaningful step forward today, manufacturing capability, with a production facility originally built for a very large electronics player, and proven IP in an important domain. This seems a highly pessimistic scenario given the progress Nanoco has demonstrated over the past two years and further important commercial milestones management expects to deliver in FY24.
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Research: Industrials
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