Oryzon Genomics — FDA aligns on Phase III BPD plans

Oryzon Genomics (BME: ORY)

Last close As at 10/10/2024

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Research: Healthcare

Oryzon Genomics — FDA aligns on Phase III BPD plans

Oryzon Genomics has confirmed the FDA’s alignment with its proposed Phase III programme for vafidemstat in borderline personality disorder (BPD). Notably, the FDA acknowledged agitation and aggression (A/A) as a therapeutic indication and, as such, the State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory 2 (STAXI-2) Trait Anger may be used as a primary endpoint for Phase III (PORTICO-2). We note that vafidemstat showed statistically significant benefit by this measure in the prior Phase IIb PORTICO trial. We view the news as encouraging and believe there is a sizeable opportunity for Oryzon to develop an effective treatment for BPD, for which there are currently no approved drugs. Next steps are to submit a full trial protocol for PORTICO-2 to the FDA (expected within Q125), before a potential trial launch from H225, contingent on regulatory clearance and providing that there are no other delays.

Written by

Arron Aatkar

Analyst

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Healthcare

Oryzon Genomics

FDA aligns on Phase III BPD plans

Regulatory update

Pharma and biotech

2 October 2024

Price

€1.81

Market cap

€116m

Net debt (€m) at 30 June 2024

3.2

Shares in issue

64.0m

Free float

82%

Code

ORY

Primary exchange

Madrid Stock Exchange

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

Business description

Oryzon Genomics is a Spanish biotech focused on epigenetics. Iadademstat is being explored for acute leukaemia, small-cell lung cancer and neuroendocrine tumours. Vafidemstat, its central nervous system asset, has completed several Phase IIa trials and a Phase IIb trial for borderline personality disorder (now the lead programme), and is in a Phase IIb trial for schizophrenia.

Analysts

Dr Arron Aatkar

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Jyoti Prakash, CFA

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Oryzon Genomics is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Oryzon Genomics has confirmed the FDA’s alignment with its proposed Phase III programme for vafidemstat in borderline personality disorder (BPD). Notably, the FDA acknowledged agitation and aggression (A/A) as a therapeutic indication and, as such, the State-Trait Anger Expression Inventory 2 (STAXI-2) Trait Anger may be used as a primary endpoint for Phase III (PORTICO-2). We note that vafidemstat showed statistically significant benefit by this measure in the prior Phase IIb PORTICO trial. We view the news as encouraging and believe there is a sizeable opportunity for Oryzon to develop an effective treatment for BPD, for which there are currently no approved drugs. Next steps are to submit a full trial protocol for PORTICO-2 to the FDA (expected within Q125), before a potential trial launch from H225, contingent on regulatory clearance and providing that there are no other delays.

Year
end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(€)

DPS
(€)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/22

15.7

(6.3)

(0.07)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/23

14.2

(6.1)

(0.06)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/24e

8.6

(4.9)

(0.05)

0.0

N/A

N/A

12/25e

31.6

15.5

0.28

0.0

6.5

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Following its end-of-Phase II meeting with the FDA, Oryzon has announced the receipt of positive feedback. The FDA confirmed that STAXI-2 Trait Anger may be used as the primary endpoint for Phase III, and secondary endpoints will involve patient-rated and clinician-rated scales, such as the Clinical Global Impression – Severity A/A (CGI-S A/A) subscale and Borderline Evaluation of Severity over Time (BEST) scale, both of which were used in the prior Phase IIb PORTICO trial, as well as the CGI-S full scale (not used in PORTICO). It was noted that the FDA will require further information to demonstrate that STAXI-2 Trait Anger constitutes a clinically meaningful endpoint, alongside similar research to justify the choice of secondary endpoints. Management is planning to conduct a qualitative research study on a subset of the PORTICO-2 patients to provide validation of the proposed endpoints. The study protocol will be submitted to the FDA for review and feedback prior to initiating PORTICO-2. Psychometric properties and performance of the endpoints will also be shared with the FDA prior to the initiation of the Phase III trial.

It is estimated that the Phase III PORTICO-2 trial will recruit c 350 participants, who will be randomised (1:1) to receive vafidemstat or a control, across an 18-week treatment duration. Subject to the FDA accepting the protocol, PORTICO2 will be one of two registrational trials required before filing for approval. We believe a key goal of the Phase III programme will be to build on the positive results from the prior Phase IIb PORTICO trial, which provided a robust foundation, in our view. As a reminder, this trial confirmed the safety of vafidemstat and, in terms of efficacy, the candidate was favoured over placebo in all measures. Notably, the secondary endpoints were met with statistical significance. The STAXI-2 Trait Anger data showed a 58.6% relative reduction in A/A with vafidemstat compared to placebo at weeks 8–12 (p=0.0071), with p values at weeks 10 and 12 of p=0.006 and p=0.016, and relative reductions of 92.1% and 57.1%, respectively. For a more detailed discussion of the final PORTICO data, please read our prior update note.

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Oryzon Genomics and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Oryzon Genomics. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

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20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by Oryzon Genomics and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Oryzon Genomics. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2024 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

London │ New York │ Frankfurt

20 Red Lion Street

London, WC1R 4PS

United Kingdom

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