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Research: Metals & Mining
Monarch Mining Corporation was spun out of Monarch Gold in January 2021, retaining a suite of potentially high-return gold projects in the well-established Abitibi Gold belt in Canada. Its Beaufor asset may start production in FY22, with Croinor in FY24/25. Meanwhile, given the highly prospective locations, ongoing exploration is likely to add to available resources and potentially lead to life extensions. In the future, its McKenzie Break and Swanson assets could add further significant value.
Written by
Rene Hochreiter
Monarch Mining Corporation |
Exploration on track with good cash levels |
Q321 results |
Metals & mining |
19 May 2021 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Monarch Mining Corporation is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Monarch Mining Corporation was spun out of Monarch Gold in January 2021, retaining a suite of potentially high-return gold projects in the well-established Abitibi Gold belt in Canada. Its Beaufor asset may start production in FY22, with Croinor in FY24/25. Meanwhile, given the highly prospective locations, ongoing exploration is likely to add to available resources and potentially lead to life extensions. In the future, its McKenzie Break and Swanson assets could add further significant value.
Year end |
Revenue (C$m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
06/21e |
0.0 |
(4.0) |
(5.9) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
06/22e |
21.0 |
(3.2) |
(4.6) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
06/23e |
56.2 |
15.9 |
17.9 |
0.0 |
5.1 |
N/A |
06/24e |
74.6 |
21.6 |
19.4 |
16.3 |
4.7 |
19.0 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. Listed in January 2021, no historical data.
Q321 results
There are no surprises in the results; the company has a healthy cash position of C$19m at end March 2021. The company reported a net loss of C$0.05 per basic and diluted share, mainly because it is in the restart study phase. Consequently, it is incurring significant exploration, consulting and specialised labour costs, as well as care and maintenance costs at its Beaufor and Beacon properties. Exploration and evaluation expenses totalled C$1.44m, with C$1.24m having been spent on exploration drilling at its Beaufor mine. Most of the balance was spent on McKenzie Break with Croinor Gold accounting for other evaluation costs.
Strategy unchanged
Monarch is on track to realise significant value through bringing new resource ounces to account and extending the life of its mines as drilling is in full progress. At the time of writing, there have been no additions to its measured, indicated and inferred (MI&I) resources, but we expect accelerated drilling results as the Canadian winter eases and drilling can proceed more rapidly.
Valuation: C$0.99/share including C$0.30 for next tier assets
Our valuation of C$0.99/share comprises C$0.69/share for the value of Monarch’s Beaufor/Croinor mines being brought into operation starting in FY22 and C$0.30/share for its next tier assets. This value will rise rapidly, not only if the lives of the assets are increased through positive drilling results, but also if Monarch can accelerate Croinor production by finding funding partners. Further upside could also be unlocked through corporate action related to the tier two assets, although in our view, the resources are not yet big enough to attract larger gold producers.
Company description: Explorer and producer in early 2022
Monarch mining has the potential to become a 25–65Koz pa gold producer in one of the most prospective areas for gold exploration in the World (Exhibit 1. With its track record of adding 11oz of gold for every metre of exploration drilled in the Abitibi gold belt, there is every reason to believe that the current 63,200m drilling programme could add significant resources to its 917 MI&I resources.
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Exhibit 1: Location of Monarch’s projects, Abitibi, Quebec |
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Source: Monarch Mining, 2021 |
Furthermore, the board members have a proven track record of creating value for shareholders through M&A, for the acquisition of distressed/forgotten assets and the ability to monetise them. CEO Jean-Marc Lacoste, CFO Alain Lévesque and VP corporate development Mathieu Séguin have been active in investment banking and held positions as company directors with experience in M&A activity for most of their careers. The culture of the board is one of M&A and serial deal-making, targeting uplifts in value to the company’s shareholders. Based on planned exploration, we feel confident that the company can extend resources and achieve mine life extensions to generate significant valuation uplift as management will push hard for accretive, cash-generative corporate activity.
Main risk: Highly geared to mine life
We see the principal risk and sensitivity to Monarch Mining as extending the life of the mines, or failure to do so and bringing the Croinor mine into production before FY24, which is our base case (see Exhibit 2). This is in addition to the normal risks of execution and the gold price.
We note that Monarch’s first project, Beaufor, is at a pre-production stage and our valuation is conditional on management executing the project according to the assumptions we set out in our recent initiation note and within the cost and timing parameters given.
Our various sensitivity analyses show a base case value of around C$0.99/share, with conservative upside to C$1.81/share through mine life extensions and capital raises on some of the properties. As a maximum downside, we calculate that the gold price would need to fall to US$800/oz for the share value to reflect a break-even situation based on the economics of Beaufor and Croinor.
The overriding key sensitivity lies in achieving the life extension of Croinor and bringing in funding to do this. For the purposes of our model (at a notional price of C$0.90), assuming funding of C$22m in FY22, we estimate that this could add C$0.21/share to our valuation (see Exhibit 2) before life extension and a further C$0.38/share with a two-year life extension.
Exhibit 2: Base case valuation and sensitivities to bringing Croinor into production in 2022 and earlier funding
C$/share |
Funding options |
No extension for |
Two-year extension |
Three-year extension |
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|
Core |
Full |
Core |
Full |
Core |
Full |
|
Beaufor start-up October 2021 and Croinor in 2025 |
No capital raise |
0.69 |
0.99 |
1.16 |
1.46 |
1.37 |
1.67 |
Beaufor start-up in October 2021 and Croinor in 2022 |
Capital raise of C$22m in 2022 with a 60:40 debt:equity split |
0.90 |
1.20 |
1.28 |
1.58 |
1.51 |
1.81 |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Conclusion: High risk, high reward
Monarch has a well-established, highly experienced management team. We see no reason why the exploration programme will not add significant new resources to the company’s MI&I resources statement and management is aware that this is the way to add the most value to the fledgling company. Although the gold price has receded from its highs of August 2020, the positive correlation of the share price to the gold price shows how highly geared the share is to this driver.
Financials
We have increased our FY21 forecast loss from 4.1c/share to 5.9c/share on the back of a slightly higher than expected cost run rate for the quarter. Our FY22 forecasts remain unchanged.
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
C$'000s |
Sep 2020 |
2021e |
2022e |
2023e |
2024e |
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June |
Pro forma |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
0 |
0 |
20,998 |
56,214 |
74,626 |
Cost of Sales |
0 |
0 |
(11,256) |
(31,339) |
(43,739) |
||
Gross Profit |
0 |
0 |
9,742 |
24,875 |
30,887 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(1,883) |
(3,790) |
(2,758) |
16,250 |
22,078 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
(1,883) |
(3,790) |
(2,758) |
16,250 |
22,078 |
|
Amortisation |
0 |
(2,500) |
(1,328) |
(1,477) |
(1,509) |
||
Exceptionals |
188 |
250 |
1,500 |
500 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
(1,695) |
(6,040) |
(2,586) |
15,273 |
20,569 |
||
Net Interest |
(69) |
(206) |
(430) |
(390) |
(531) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(1,952) |
(3,996) |
(3,188) |
15,860 |
21,547 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(1,764) |
(6,246) |
(3,017) |
14,883 |
20,038 |
Tax |
467 |
0 |
0 |
(3,397) |
(8,053) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(1,485) |
(3,996) |
(3,188) |
12,464 |
13,496 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
(1,297) |
(6,246) |
(3,017) |
11,486 |
11,985 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
66.3 |
68.0 |
69.7 |
69.7 |
69.7 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
(2.2) |
(5.9) |
(4.6) |
17.9 |
19.4 |
EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c) |
|
|
(2.2) |
(5.7) |
(4.5) |
17.4 |
18.9 |
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
(2.0) |
(9.2) |
(4.3) |
16.5 |
17.2 |
Dividend per share (p) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
16.3 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
46.4 |
44.2 |
41.4 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
(13.1) |
28.9 |
29.6 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
(13.1) |
28.9 |
29.6 |
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BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
36,504 |
36,504 |
37,989 |
38,313 |
65,944 |
Intangible Assets |
14,319 |
14,319 |
14,319 |
14,319 |
14,319 |
||
Tangible Assets |
13,282 |
13,282 |
14,767 |
15,090 |
42,721 |
||
Investments |
8,903 |
8,903 |
8,903 |
8,903 |
8,903 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
20,920 |
19,439 |
13,627 |
29,628 |
17,093 |
Stocks |
1,192 |
1,192 |
1,167 |
3,123 |
4,146 |
||
Debtors |
2,122 |
2,122 |
2,129 |
5,698 |
7,565 |
||
Cash |
14,000 |
14,520 |
8,727 |
19,201 |
3,777 |
||
Other |
3,605 |
1,605 |
1,605 |
1,605 |
1,605 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(2,698) |
(2,695) |
(2,558) |
(7,070) |
(9,856) |
Creditors |
(2,666) |
(2,666) |
(2,529) |
(7,041) |
(9,826) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(32) |
(29) |
(29) |
(29) |
(29) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(10,671) |
(8,797) |
(9,123) |
(9,949) |
(10,275) |
Long term borrowings |
(26) |
(29) |
(29) |
(29) |
(29) |
||
Other long-term liabilities |
(10,644) |
(8,768) |
(9,093) |
(9,919) |
(10,245) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
44,056 |
44,452 |
39,935 |
50,922 |
62,906 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
0 |
(3,464) |
(2,550) |
15,561 |
22,300 |
Net Interest |
0 |
(206) |
(430) |
(390) |
(531) |
||
Tax |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(2,897) |
(8,053) |
||
Capex |
0 |
(500) |
(2,813) |
(1,800) |
(29,140) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
0 |
4,690 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
0 |
520 |
(5,793) |
10,474 |
(15,424) |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
0 |
(13,941) |
(14,461) |
(8,668) |
(19,142) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
(0) |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(13,941) |
(14,461) |
(8,668) |
(19,142) |
(3,718) |
Source: Monarch Mining accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: We do not show historical figures and instead show pro forma FY20 figures published in September 2020, reflecting that on 10 November 2020 Yamana bought the Wasamac mine and Camflo mill from Monarch Gold and, as such, there are no historical numbers that are relevant to Monarch Mining.
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