Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP189.40
▲ −70.00 (−0.37%)
Market capitalisation
GBP6,282m
Research: Consumer
Games Workshop’s (GAW) Q121 trading update was well ahead of expectations, indicating that the previously flagged strong post-lockdown demand has continued, helped by a major product re-release in the period. We upgrade our FY21e PBT forecast by 37% to £115.9m, reflecting higher revenue growth, c 12% versus 2% previously, and a higher operating margin pre-royalties of c 35% versus 27% previously. On our new forecasts the P/E for FY21 is 35.2x. The EV/sales multiple of 10.6x is a premium to GAW’s previous highest multiple.
Games Workshop |
Exceptional start to FY21 |
Q121 trading statement |
Consumer goods |
11 September 2020 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Games Workshop is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Games Workshop’s (GAW) Q121 trading update was well ahead of expectations, indicating that the previously flagged strong post-lockdown demand has continued, helped by a major product re-release in the period. We upgrade our FY21e PBT forecast by 37% to £115.9m, reflecting higher revenue growth, c 12% versus 2% previously, and a higher operating margin pre-royalties of c 35% versus 27% previously. On our new forecasts the P/E for FY21 is 35.2x. The EV/sales multiple of 10.6x is a premium to GAW’s previous highest multiple.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
05/19 |
256.6 |
81.3 |
200.8 |
155 |
49.5 |
1.6 |
05/20 |
269.7 |
89.4 |
217.8 |
145 |
45.6 |
1.5 |
05/21e |
302.5 |
115.9 |
282.4 |
200 |
35.2 |
2.0 |
05/22e |
322.2 |
125.1 |
304.9 |
220 |
32.6 |
2.2 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items.
Q121: Demand continues unabated
GAW’s Q121 revenue growth of 15% y-o-y to c £90m was driven by Trade and Online, while Retail (40% of revenue) declined given the gradual re-opening of locations post COVID-19 and lower footfall. Demand was helped by the new Warhammer 40,000 release, Indomitus, in July. Gross margin improvements, helped by channel mix and phasing of product releases fed through to a much-improved operating profit pre-royalties, which increased by c 60% to c £45m, a margin of c 50%. The quarterly figures highlight the variability in operating margin due the phasing of releases etc (Q120 36%, Q220 29%). Royalty income of £3m grew from £2m in the comparative period. We believe that cash flow generation improved as evidenced by the 50p dividend declared.
FY21: PBT estimate increased by 37%
We increase our FY21 estimates for revenue by c 10% to £302.5m (y-o-y growth of 12%) and PBT by 37% to £115.9m (growth of 30%). We assume higher growth for Trade of c 15% and Online c 30%, and a lower decline for Retail of 8%. Our assumption for the gross margin increases to 72.7% (67.0% in FY20) and the operating margin pre-royalties increases to 34.8% (27.1% in FY20). We retain our assumption for royalty income of £11m in FY21.
Valuation: Looking for further upgrades
The share price has performed strongly in 2020 as the company has traded through COVID-19 much better than expected. On our updated forecast the P/E multiple for FY21 is 35.2x. The EV/sales multiple for FY21 is 10.6x, a premium to the previous high achieved in FY20 of 9.5x, which could suggest that the current share price is discounting further upgrades in market estimates.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
Year-end 31 May |
£m |
|
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021e |
2022e |
|
|
|
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
INCOME STATEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total revenues |
|
|
119.1 |
118.1 |
158.1 |
221.3 |
256.6 |
269.7 |
302.5 |
322.2 |
Cost of sales |
|
|
(37.0) |
(37.4) |
(43.7) |
(64.2) |
(83.3) |
(89.1) |
(82.7) |
(87.3) |
Gross profit |
|
|
82.1 |
80.6 |
114.4 |
157.1 |
173.3 |
180.6 |
219.8 |
234.9 |
SG&A (expenses) |
|
|
(67.2) |
(69.7) |
(83.6) |
(92.4) |
(103.4) |
(107.4) |
(114.4) |
(121.4) |
Other operating income/(expense) |
|
|
1.5 |
5.9 |
7.5 |
9.6 |
11.4 |
16.8 |
11.0 |
12.1 |
Exceptionals and adjustments |
|
|
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
EBITDA (excl royalties) |
|
|
26.0 |
21.3 |
41.8 |
76.8 |
85.7 |
98.8 |
132.7 |
142.4 |
EBITDA |
|
|
27.5 |
27.3 |
49.3 |
86.5 |
97.1 |
115.6 |
143.7 |
154.5 |
Depreciation and amortisation |
|
|
(11.1) |
(10.4) |
(11.0) |
(12.1) |
(15.9) |
(25.6) |
(27.3) |
(28.9) |
Operating profit (before royalties and exceptionals) |
|
14.9 |
10.9 |
30.8 |
64.7 |
69.8 |
73.2 |
105.4 |
113.4 |
|
Reported operating profit |
|
|
16.5 |
16.9 |
38.3 |
74.3 |
81.2 |
90.0 |
116.4 |
125.5 |
Finance income/(expense) |
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
(0.0) |
0.1 |
(0.6) |
(0.5) |
(0.4) |
Reported PBT |
|
|
16.6 |
16.9 |
38.4 |
74.3 |
81.3 |
89.4 |
115.9 |
125.1 |
Income tax expense (includes exceptionals) |
|
|
(4.3) |
(3.5) |
(7.9) |
(14.8) |
(15.5) |
(18.1) |
(23.5) |
(25.3) |
Adjusted net income |
|
|
12.2 |
13.5 |
30.5 |
59.5 |
65.8 |
71.3 |
92.4 |
99.8 |
Reported net income |
|
|
12.3 |
13.5 |
30.5 |
59.5 |
65.8 |
71.3 |
92.4 |
99.8 |
WASC (m) |
|
|
31.975 |
32.093 |
32.126 |
32.258 |
32.438 |
32.602 |
32.602 |
32.602 |
Diluted average number of shares (m) |
|
|
32.025 |
32.150 |
32.325 |
32.732 |
32.785 |
32.736 |
32.736 |
32.736 |
Reported EPS (p) |
|
|
38.3 |
42.1 |
95.1 |
184.3 |
202.9 |
218.7 |
283.6 |
306.1 |
Reported diluted EPS (p) |
|
|
38.3 |
42.0 |
94.5 |
181.6 |
200.8 |
217.8 |
282.4 |
304.9 |
Adjusted diluted EPS (p) |
|
|
38.1 |
42.0 |
94.5 |
181.6 |
200.8 |
217.8 |
282.4 |
304.9 |
DPS (p) |
|
|
52.0 |
40.0 |
74.0 |
126.0 |
155.0 |
145.0 |
200.0 |
220.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Gross margin |
|
|
69.0% |
68.3% |
72.4% |
71.0% |
67.5% |
67.0% |
72.7% |
72.9% |
EBITDA margin (excl royalties) |
|
|
21.8% |
18.1% |
26.5% |
34.7% |
33.4% |
36.6% |
43.9% |
44.2% |
EBITDA margin (incl royalties) |
|
|
23.1% |
23.1% |
31.2% |
39.1% |
37.8% |
42.9% |
47.5% |
48.0% |
Operating margin (before royalties and exceptionals) |
|
|
12.5% |
9.2% |
19.5% |
29.2% |
27.2% |
27.1% |
34.8% |
35.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
BALANCE SHEET |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Property, plant and equipment |
|
|
22.7 |
22.6 |
22.1 |
30.1 |
35.3 |
42.0 |
34.8 |
26.8 |
Right-of-use assets |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
31.9 |
31.9 |
31.9 |
Goodwill |
|
|
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
1.4 |
Intangible assets |
|
|
8.3 |
10.5 |
12.9 |
14.2 |
16.0 |
17.6 |
19.4 |
20.8 |
Other non-current assets |
|
|
4.8 |
4.1 |
6.5 |
7.8 |
11.7 |
16.4 |
16.4 |
16.4 |
Total non-current assets |
|
|
37.2 |
38.7 |
43.0 |
53.5 |
64.4 |
109.3 |
103.9 |
97.4 |
Cash and equivalents |
|
|
12.6 |
11.8 |
17.9 |
28.5 |
29.4 |
52.9 |
74.9 |
108.6 |
Inventories |
|
|
7.6 |
8.5 |
12.4 |
20.2 |
24.2 |
20.7 |
19.2 |
20.3 |
Trade and other receivables |
|
|
9.4 |
10.1 |
13.0 |
15.5 |
18.8 |
19.6 |
22.0 |
23.4 |
Other current assets |
|
|
0.6 |
0.7 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
Total current assets |
|
|
30.2 |
31.2 |
43.9 |
64.7 |
73.2 |
93.4 |
116.3 |
152.5 |
Trade and other payables |
|
|
(13.1) |
(12.8) |
(16.5) |
(20.3) |
(19.2) |
(30.3) |
(20.0) |
(21.1) |
Borrowings |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Leases |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(8.3) |
(8.3) |
(8.3) |
Other current liabilities |
|
|
(2.0) |
(2.7) |
(6.5) |
(7.3) |
(10.1) |
(4.5) |
(4.5) |
(4.5) |
Total current liabilities |
|
|
(15.1) |
(15.6) |
(23.0) |
(27.6) |
(29.3) |
(43.1) |
(32.8) |
(33.9) |
Borrowings |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Leases |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(23.8) |
(23.6) |
(23.6) |
Other non-current liabilities |
|
|
(0.8) |
(1.1) |
(1.0) |
(1.2) |
(1.9) |
(2.1) |
(2.1) |
(2.1) |
Total non-current liabilities |
|
|
(0.8) |
(1.1) |
(1.0) |
(1.2) |
(1.9) |
(25.9) |
(25.7) |
(25.7) |
Net assets |
|
|
51.5 |
53.2 |
62.8 |
89.3 |
106.5 |
133.7 |
161.7 |
190.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CASH FLOW STATEMENT |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
EBIT |
|
|
16.5 |
16.9 |
38.3 |
74.3 |
81.2 |
90.0 |
116.4 |
125.5 |
Depreciation and amortisation |
|
|
11.1 |
10.4 |
10.2 |
12.2 |
15.9 |
25.0 |
27.3 |
28.9 |
Impairments |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.8 |
(0.0) |
0.0 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Share based payments |
|
|
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
Other adjustments |
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Movements in working capital |
|
|
(2.3) |
(0.8) |
(0.2) |
(4.4) |
(9.0) |
10.8 |
(11.2) |
(1.4) |
Income taxes paid |
|
|
(2.3) |
(2.6) |
(5.5) |
(12.2) |
(16.3) |
(22.7) |
(23.5) |
(25.3) |
Operating cash flow |
|
|
23.3 |
24.2 |
43.9 |
70.1 |
72.5 |
104.5 |
109.5 |
128.3 |
Net capex and intangibles |
|
|
(12.3) |
(12.7) |
(12.8) |
(21.6) |
(22.5) |
(24.6) |
(21.8) |
(22.4) |
Net interest |
|
|
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
(0.0) |
0.1 |
0.1 |
(0.5) |
(0.4) |
Net proceeds from issue of shares |
|
|
0.7 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.9 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Dividends paid |
|
|
(16.6) |
(12.8) |
(23.8) |
(38.7) |
(50.3) |
(47.3) |
(65.2) |
(71.7) |
Other financing activities |
|
|
0.0 |
0.0 |
(1.9) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(10.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Net cash flow |
|
|
(4.8) |
(0.9) |
5.5 |
10.7 |
0.5 |
23.2 |
22.0 |
33.7 |
Opening cash and cash equivalents |
|
|
17.6 |
12.6 |
11.8 |
17.9 |
28.5 |
29.4 |
52.9 |
74.9 |
Currency translation differences and other |
|
|
(0.2) |
0.1 |
0.6 |
(0.1) |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Closing cash and cash equivalents |
|
|
12.6 |
11.8 |
17.9 |
28.5 |
29.4 |
52.9 |
74.9 |
108.6 |
Closing net cash (including leases) |
|
|
12.6 |
11.8 |
17.9 |
28.5 |
29.4 |
20.8 |
43.0 |
76.7 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
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Research: TMT
4imprint’s first half trading was heavily affected by the commercial repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic as it spread across the US. With uncertainty over the speed and extent of the reopening of the US economy, projections for the remainder of the year (and for FY21) are more tentative than usual. Despite the difficult trading circumstances, 4imprint retains a strong, cash positive balance sheet, and has low fixed costs and capital requirements. We believe that it retains its long-term attractions in a large, fragmented market and should rebuild quickly as the economy recovers