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eServGlobal — Update 9 January 2017

eServGlobal — Update 9 January 2017

eServGlobal

Written by

Katherine Thompson

Director

eServGlobal

Core business restructuring starts to pay off

FY16 results

Software & comp services

9 January 2017

Price

6.4p

Market cap

£41m

A$1.7:€1.18:£1

Net debt (A$m) at end FY16

2.4

Shares in issue

640.2m

Free float

96%

Code

ESG

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

ASX

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

2.0

(10.5)

109.1

Rel (local)

(3.9)

(12.9)

79.3

52-week high/low

8.25p

1.95p

Business description

eServGlobal develops mobile software solutions to support mobile financial services, with a focus on emerging markets. It also has a share in the HomeSend international remittances hub, alongside MasterCard and BICS.

Next events

Half-year results

June 2017

Analysts

Katherine Thompson

+44 (0)20 3077 5730

Dan Ridsdale

+44 (0)20 3077 5729

eServGlobal is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

eServGlobal reported FY16 results in line with its recent trading update. The turnaround in the core business is evident with H216 revenues 58% higher than in H116 and adjusted EBITDA losses significantly reducing over H216. Continued contract momentum combined with good cost control puts the company on track to generate positive EBITDA for FY17. At the same time, the HomeSend joint venture expects to see revenue contributions from new partners coming on line and continues to target break-even in CY17.

Year end

Revenue (A$m)

EBITDA*
(A$m)

EPS*
(A$)

DPS
(A$)

P/E
(x)

EV/EBITDA
(x)

10/14

31.3

2.6

(0.20)

0.0

N/A

26.5

10/15

25.9

(10.4)

(5.41)

0.0

N/A

N/A

10/16

21.6

(7.0)

(3.88)

0.0

N/A

N/A

10/17e

27.6

0.8

(0.94)

0.0

N/A

N/A

Note: *EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

H216 results show recovery in core business

eServGlobal reported FY16 revenues of A$21.6m (-16.6%), in line with its recent trading update, and confirming a pick up in revenues in H216 (H1 A$8.4m, H2 A$13.2m). FY16 adjusted EBITDA loss of A$7.0m was slightly better than our forecast, reflecting costs at the lower end of the expected range, with the H216 EBITDA loss reduced to A$0.4m. The company ended the year with gross cash of A$9.4m and net debt of A$2.4m.

Forecasting positive EBITDA for FY17

We assume that the core business is able to grow revenues at a modest level from the A$13.2m generated in H216, to achieve FY17 revenue growth of 28%. A large proportion of these revenues is already contracted, but the company will need to sign new contracts to achieve our forecast. The recent contract signed with a channel partner in Africa opens up new opportunities in a region very active in mobile money, and complements the company’s strong position in the Middle East. With a small reduction in the cost base from FY16, we forecast a small positive EBITDA for FY17.

Valuation: HomeSend key to upside

Based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, we calculate a per-share value of 10.1p (down from 10.6p). We value the core business at a discount to mobile software peers to reflect its profitability profile. We assume that the HomeSend JV is successful in reaching break-even in CY17, growing its share of the international remittance market to 2% by FY25. For the value of the JV to be reflected in the share price, investors will need to see regular operational updates tracking new hub members, live corridors, volumes transacted and progress towards profitability.

Review of FY16 results

eServGlobal had already flagged headline results for FY16 in its November trading update, expecting revenues of €14-14.5m and total costs of €19.5m. FY16 revenues of A$21.6m/€14.5m declined 16.6% y-o-y, although on a half-yearly basis, H216 revenues of A$13.2m were substantially higher than the company’s low of A$8.4m in H116. Gross profit of A$6.1m for the year equated to a gross margin of 28.2%, split out as 5.4% in H116 and 42.6% in H216, showing that recent restructuring has put the company back on track. The company benefited from a currency gain of A$3.6m during the year, partially offset by A$2.7m in trade receivable and work-in-progress write-downs and other exceptional costs of A$0.2m. Excluding these items, the company achieved an EBITDA loss of A$7.0m (-A$6.6m in H116, -A$0.4m in H216). This implies that operating costs fell further in H216 (we calculate a fall from A$7.0m in H116 to A$6.1m in H216). Total costs for the year of A$28.6m/€19.1m came in below the expected €19.5m level.

Net finance costs of A$7.1m included $A3.25m in debt restructuring fees and A$1.0m loss from repaying the old debt that we treat as exceptional, leaving underlying finance charges of A$2.86m for the year. The loss generated by the stake in the HomeSend JV of A$4.6m was in line with our forecast.

The company ended the year with a net debt position of A$2.4m, with gross cash of A$9.4m and long-term debt of A$11.8m (repayable June 2019).

Exhibit 1: Summary of FY16 results

A$000s

FY15a

FY16e

FY16a

Difference

y-o-y

Revenues

25,866

21,409

21,577

0.8%

-16.6%

Gross profit

5,258

6,324

6,087

-3.7%

15.8%

Gross margin

20.3%

29.5%

28.2%

-1.3%

7.9%

Normalised EBITDA

(10,449)

(7,842)

(6,982)

11.0%

33.2%

Normalised EBITDA margin

-40.4%

-36.6%

-32.4%

4.3%

8.0%

Normalised EBIT

(12,469)

(10,942)

(10,039)

8.3%

19.5%

Normalised EBIT margin

-48.2%

-51.1%

-46.5%

4.6%

1.7%

Reported EBIT

(25,062)

(13,264)

(9,393)

29.2%

62.5%

Normalised PBT

(17,656)

(18,167)

(17,538)

3.5%

0.7%

Reported PBT

(30,249)

(24,005)

(21,146)

11.9%

30.1%

Normalised net income

(14,291)

(14,664)

(14,226)

3.0%

0.5%

Reported net income

(32,540)

(19,334)

(21,938)

-13.5%

32.6%

Normalised EPS

(5.41)

(4.00)

(3.88)

3.0%

28.3%

Net debt

14,555

3,355

2,384

-28.9%

-83.6%

Source: eServGlobal, Edison Investment Research

Outlook and changes to forecasts

In the core business, the company’s contracted order book of €21m/A$30.3m is 60% higher than a year ago. A large proportion of the deals signed at year-end are for recognition over the current and future years. eServGlobal is still negotiating several material contracts and recently signed a major channel partnership that should help it access parts of Africa it had previously struggled to reach. This provides some comfort that FY17 revenues should be stronger than in FY16.

The company expects to reduce its cost base further, from the A$28.6m/€19.1m incurred in FY16 to below A$26m/€18m in FY17. At the same time, it is tightening up working capital, in particular reducing debtor days.

The HomeSend joint venture has several key contracts that should come on line this year, helping to drive revenues and taking the venture closer to its target to break-even in CY17.

We are forecasting revenue growth of 28% for the core business in FY17 – based on H216 revenues this implies h-o-h growth of 3% in H117 and H217. We forecast a gross margin of 46% for the year and operating expenses before depreciation and amortisation of A$11.9m (down from A$13.1m in FY16) – this results in a small positive EBITDA for the year. We make no change to our forecast for the HomeSend JV contribution, which we estimate will generate a loss of A$3m for FY17.

Exhibit 2: Changes to forecasts

A$'000

FY16a

FY17e new

y-o-y

Revenues

21,577

27,629

28.0%

Gross profit

6,087

12,713

108.9%

Gross margin

28.2%

46.0%

17.8%

Normalised EBITDA

(6,982)

791

111.3%

Normalised EBITDA margin

-32.4%

2.9%

35.2%

Normalised EBIT

(10,039)

(2,599)

74.1%

Normalised EBIT margin

-46.5%

-9.4%

37.1%

Reported EBIT

(9,393)

(2,799)

70.2%

Normalised PBT

(17,538)

(7,272)

58.5%

Reported PBT

(21,146)

(7,472)

64.7%

Normalised net income

(14,226)

(6,018)

57.7%

Reported net income

(21,938)

(6,178)

71.8%

Normalised EPS

(3.88)

(0.94)

75.8%

Net debt

2,384

4,057

70.2%

Source: eServGlobal, Edison Investment Research


Exhibit 3: Financial summary

A$'000s

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017e

Year end 31 October

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

7,017

28,070

31,003

31,261

25,866

21,577

27,629

Cost of Sales

(4,234)

(12,267)

(11,789)

(13,359)

(20,608)

(15,490)

(14,916)

Gross Profit

2,783

15,803

19,214

17,902

5,258

6,087

12,713

EBITDA

 

 

(6,694)

(1,936)

1,683

2,571

(10,449)

(6,982)

791

Operating Profit (before amort acq intang, SBP and except.)

(8,601)

(7,277)

(660)

1,987

(12,469)

(10,039)

(2,599)

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

(6,485)

5,997

28,735

(12,539)

(3,533)

0

Share-based payments

(261)

(624)

(456)

(438)

(54)

(75)

(200)

Operating Profit

(8,862)

(14,386)

4,881

30,284

(25,062)

(13,647)

(2,799)

Income from associate

0

0

0

(2,275)

(3,831)

(4,638)

(2,977)

Net Interest

164

(1,016)

(386)

(254)

(1,356)

(2,861)

(1,697)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(8,437)

(8,293)

(1,046)

(542)

(17,656)

(17,538)

(7,272)

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

(8,698)

(15,402)

4,495

27,755

(30,249)

(21,146)

(7,472)

Tax

(560)

(187)

5,879

(13,515)

(2,125)

(596)

1,494

Profit After Tax (norm)

(8,997)

(5,805)

(732)

(379)

(14,125)

(14,030)

(5,818)

Profit After Tax (FRS3)

(9,258)

(15,589)

10,374

14,240

(32,374)

(21,742)

(5,978)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

196.8

196.8

241.1

253.1

264.0

366.6

640.2

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(4.59)

(3.01)

(0.36)

(0.20)

(5.41)

(3.88)

(0.94)

EPS - FRS 3 (c)

 

 

(4.73)

(7.98)

4.25

5.57

(12.33)

(5.98)

(0.97)

DPS (c)

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Gross Margin (%)

39.7%

56.3%

62.0%

57.3%

20.3%

28.2%

46.0%

EBITDA Margin (%)

(95.4%)

(6.9%)

5.4%

8.2%

(40.4%)

(32.4%)

2.9%

Operating Margin (before am and except.) (%)

(122.6%)

(25.9%)

(2.1%)

6.4%

(48.2%)

(46.5%)

(9.4%)

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

20,090

16,303

14,330

43,431

42,928

33,274

28,416

Intangible Assets

13,190

9,386

3,523

9,011

6,939

5,598

3,717

Tangible Assets

1,541

912

482

3

84

32

32

Other Fixed Assets

5,359

6,005

10,325

34,417

35,905

27,644

24,667

Current Assets

 

 

50,814

18,136

38,855

30,761

34,895

28,240

33,149

Stock

 

 

170

158

74

173

66

72

72

Debtors

 

 

40,425

14,094

21,846

26,811

24,403

17,976

22,330

Cash

 

 

10,129

3,794

4,909

3,679

4,976

9,375

9,930

Other

 

 

90

90

12,026

98

5,450

817

817

Current Liabilities

 

 

(40,856)

(12,934)

(15,082)

(18,033)

(25,520)

(14,469)

(18,449)

Creditors

(19,952)

(11,665)

(11,932)

(13,010)

(22,285)

(14,189)

(18,169)

Taxation & social security

(6,904)

(69)

(150)

(2,023)

(235)

(280)

(280)

Short term borrowings

(14,000)

(1,200)

(3,000)

(3,000)

(3,000)

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(1,175)

(6,431)

(749)

(865)

(19,532)

(12,649)

(14,877)

Long term borrowings

0

(6,000)

0

0

(16,531)

(11,759)

(13,987)

Other long term liabilities

(1,175)

(431)

(749)

(865)

(3,001)

(890)

(890)

Net Assets

 

 

28,803

14,989

37,154

55,070

32,359

33,823

27,467

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

(8,060)

(11,901)

(7,207)

(5,810)

(12,130)

(10,712)

417

Net Interest

1,486

(974)

(580)

(271)

(423)

(175)

(200)

Tax

(448)

(7,813)

(1,088)

2,018

(3,148)

(1,159)

(300)

Capex

(529)

(1,966)

(1,950)

(6,403)

(2,921)

(1,535)

(1,590)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

23,307

0

5,418

0

5,133

0

Financing

(33,230)

(77)

16,140

3,964

4,365

15,929

0

Dividends

(23,910)

(111)

0

(146)

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(64,691)

465

5,315

(1,230)

(14,257)

7,481

(1,673)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

(60,820)

3,871

3,406

(1,909)

(679)

14,555

2,384

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

977

(4,690)

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

3,871

3,406

(1,909)

(679)

14,555

2,384

4,057

Source: eServGlobal, Edison Investment Research

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt and Sydney. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by eServGlobal and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt and Sydney. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by eServGlobal and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Research: Healthcare

Onxeo — Update 6 January 2017

Onxeo

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