Last close As at 05/08/2026
—
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
—
Research: TMT
EQS Group
EQS Group |
Ariva acquisition well timed |
Acquisition |
Media |
20 June 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
EQS Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EQS Group’s increase of its shareholding in Ariva to a controlling stake is well timed ahead of the expected changes to the PRIIPs regulation in January 2017. This regulatory change should drive demand for Ariva’s newly launched PRIIP software, which has the potential to become a significant new product line for the now enlarged group. As the acquisition is earnings accretive, we raise our earnings estimates for both FY16 and FY17, although this is not visible at the EPS level in FY16 as we have taken the opportunity to revise our forecast tax rate for that year.
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/14 |
16.4 |
3.4 |
1.83 |
0.75 |
20.4 |
2.0 |
12/15 |
18.4 |
3.1 |
1.15 |
0.75 |
32.5 |
2.0 |
12/16e |
23.6 |
3.6 |
1.68 |
0.80 |
22.3 |
2.1 |
12/17e |
28.9 |
4.3 |
2.26 |
0.85 |
16.6 |
2.3 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Ariva: Takes EQS into a new market for KIDs
EQS has increased its ownership of Ariva from 25% to 50% plus one share, giving it a controlling interest in one of Germany’s leading providers of financial data and software solutions. The two companies plan greater co-operation on the cross-selling of solutions. By taking a controlling interest, EQS will share in the expected strong growth from Ariva’s recently launched PRIIP software following the anticipated changes in the regulation in January 2017 relating to the production of key information documents (KIDs).
Forecast changes: Earnings-accretive deal
We are raising our revenue and PBT forecasts to reflect the consolidation of Ariva in EQS’s financials from H216. The price of the acquisition has not been disclosed other than the fact that EQS paid less than it had for the original 25% stake in 2007; we take this to signal a fairly modest price and expect the acquisition to be earnings enhancing from H216. However, we are also taking the opportunity to adjust our FY16 forecast tax charge upwards, which more than offsets the positive impact of this deal in FY16 (FY16 EPS forecast down 7%). We do not expect this higher tax rate to persist into FY17 and therefore raise our FY17 EPS forecast by 12%.
Valuation: Discount remains pronounced
On our pro forma estimates, the forward EV/EBITDA discount on which EQS trades compared to its media and software peers remains pronounced (c 30%). It is worth noting that PR Newswire was sold by UBM for 11.2x historic EBITDA in December 2015 to Cision, backed by GCTR Canyon (now under review by competition authorities). We would expect the discount to peers to close as the benefits of EQS’s international expansion translate into attractive ROIs and future acquisitions enhance earnings further.
Implications of the Ariva acquisition
Deal rational: Enhances PRIIP software solutions
Ariva is a leading provider of financial data and software solutions for financial institutions and operates the financial portal of the same name. It has 80 full-time employees, is headquartered in Kiel and recently opened a Frankfurt sales office. Management expects it to generate revenues of approximately €5.6m and EBIT of €600k this year. The majority of its revenue currently comes from its financial portal (advertising), the supply of derivatives data to financial institutions and media platforms, platform software licences and project work.
It has recently developed and launched a new turnkey software solution, which enables issuers in the financial sector to automatically generate documents for packaged retail investment and insurance-based products (PRIIPs), significantly reducing the administrative burden (currently either banks have developed their own software or generate these reports in a fairly manual way).
The production of these leaflets is already mandatory for non-retail banks. The PRIIPs (packaged retail investment and insurance-based investment products) regulation, which will be mandatory across the EU, is expected to take effect at the beginning of 2017, extending this requirement to retail investment companies and insurance-based products – approximately 8,000 companies across Europe. Ariva already has a high-profile reference client for the software and management plans to leverage EQS’s existing relationships with the financial industry to accelerate the roll-out of this product, which has the potential to become a significant new product line.
Impact on forecasts
Completion is expected towards the end of June. For FY16 we have based our estimates for Ariva on management guidance (revenues €5,600, EBIT €600k). Management has revised its guidance for consolidated sales to €23-23.9m and EBIT to €3.4-3.6m (from €20.2-21.0m revenues and €3.1-3.6m EBIT).
For FY17, we assume 10% revenue growth for Ariva, which would be achievable with a few new client wins for the PRIIP software (with the rest of the business growing at mid-single digit rates). With a strong reference client, limited competition in its core markets and the regulatory deadline looming, our assumptions could prove conservative. Operation margins should also benefit from operational gearing effects as the new solution scales, and we forecast margins rising from 10.7% this year to 14% next year.
The price for the acquisition has not been disclosed other than the fact that EQS has paid less than it did for its original 25% stake (acquired in 2007) and 25% of the purchase price will be financed by its own resources, with the remainder through a new acquisition loan by Commerzbank Munich. Net of the costs of this loan (we assume an additional €20k interest costs), the deal should be earnings enhancing – we raise our FY17 EPS forecast by12%. For the current year, we are adjusting our tax rate upwards to 40% – affected by a mix of profits away from the lower tax regimes in the current year (in particular Asia) – and therefore reduce our FY16 EPS forecast by 7%.
Exhibit 1: Summary forecast changes
€000s |
2016e |
2017e |
||||
Old |
New |
Change (%) |
Old |
New |
Change (%) |
|
Revenue |
20,800 |
23,600 |
13% |
22,750 |
28,910 |
27% |
EBIT |
2,758 |
3,130 |
13% |
3,033 |
3,885 |
28% |
PBT (norm) |
3,211 |
3,560 |
11% |
3,497 |
4,305 |
23% |
EPS – € (norm) |
1.81 |
1.7 |
-7% |
2.0 |
2.3 |
12% |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
€'000s |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
15,829 |
16,390 |
18,377 |
23,600 |
28,910 |
Cost of Sales |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Gross Profit |
15,829 |
16,390 |
18,377 |
23,600 |
28,910 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
3,572 |
3,660 |
3,485 |
4,018 |
4,895 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
3,418 |
3,311 |
2,983 |
3,579 |
4,380 |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
(140) |
(280) |
(351) |
(520) |
(520) |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
(211) |
(268) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
28 |
177 |
167 |
71 |
25 |
||
Operating Profit |
3,306 |
2,997 |
2,532 |
3,130 |
3,885 |
||
Net Interest |
(29) |
(52) |
(45) |
(90) |
(100) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
3,418 |
3,436 |
3,105 |
3,560 |
4,305 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
3,278 |
2,945 |
2,486 |
3,040 |
3,785 |
Tax |
(1,096) |
(1,105) |
(1,372) |
(1,395) |
(1,356) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
2,283 |
2,148 |
1,355 |
2,001 |
2,690 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
2,182 |
1,841 |
1,115 |
1,644 |
2,429 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
1.19 |
1.17 |
1.18 |
1.19 |
1.19 |
||
EPS - normalised (€) |
|
|
1.91 |
1.83 |
1.15 |
1.68 |
2.26 |
EPS - (IFRS) (€) |
|
|
1.83 |
1.57 |
0.95 |
1.38 |
2.04 |
Dividend per share (€) |
0.75 |
0.75 |
0.75 |
0.80 |
0.85 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
22.6 |
22.3 |
19.0 |
17.0 |
16.9 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
21.6 |
20.2 |
16.2 |
15.2 |
15.2 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
13,658 |
19,383 |
22,287 |
28,111 |
30,196 |
Intangible Assets |
10,524 |
15,827 |
17,360 |
21,094 |
21,094 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,032 |
1,468 |
2,796 |
4,886 |
6,971 |
||
Investments |
2,103 |
2,088 |
2,131 |
2,131 |
2,131 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
6,055 |
4,750 |
6,972 |
7,713 |
9,201 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
2,971 |
3,282 |
3,215 |
5,027 |
6,358 |
||
Cash |
2,980 |
1,370 |
3,607 |
2,536 |
2,693 |
||
Other |
104 |
98 |
150 |
150 |
150 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(3,274) |
(4,380) |
(5,325) |
(7,414) |
(8,127) |
Creditors |
(2,273) |
(2,689) |
(3,475) |
(5,614) |
(6,877) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(1,001) |
(1,691) |
(1,850) |
(1,800) |
(1,250) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(1,070) |
(3,882) |
(6,805) |
(9,838) |
(9,838) |
Long term borrowings |
(982) |
(2,500) |
(4,767) |
(7,800) |
(7,800) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(88) |
(1,382) |
(2,038) |
(2,038) |
(2,038) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
15,369 |
15,870 |
17,129 |
18,571 |
21,431 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
2,476 |
4,050 |
4,989 |
4,303 |
4,968 |
Net Interest |
(29) |
(52) |
(45) |
(90) |
(100) |
||
Tax |
(1,096) |
(1,105) |
(1,371) |
(1,378) |
(1,386) |
||
Capex |
(3,088) |
(1,041) |
(1,978) |
(1,500) |
(1,500) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
(3,669) |
(1,046) |
(4,500) |
(325) |
||
Equity Financing |
(202) |
(100) |
569 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(892) |
(1,623) |
(883) |
(890) |
(950) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(2,831) |
(3,540) |
235 |
(4,055) |
707 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(3,827) |
(996) |
2,821 |
3,009 |
7,064 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
(277) |
(423) |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(996) |
2,821 |
3,009 |
7,064 |
6,357 |
Source: EQS (historic), Edison Investment Research (forecasts)
|
Research: Investment Companies
TR European Growth Trust