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Entertainment One — Update 30 September 2016

Entertainment One — Update 30 September 2016

Entertainment One

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

Entertainment One

Independent library valuation increased by 50%

Trading update

Media

30 September 2016

Price

213p

Market cap

£903m

Net debt (£m) at March 2016

181

Production finance (£m)

118

Shares in issue

423.9m

Free float

68%

Code

ETO

Primary exchange

LSE (FTSE 250)

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(3.3)

31.7

(12.6)

Rel (local)

(3.3)

17.5

(23.0)

52-week high/low

255.00p

130.00p

Business description

Entertainment One (eOne) is a leading international entertainment company that sources, selects and sells films and television content. Its library contains over 40,000 film and TV titles, 4,500 half-hours of TV programming and 45,000 music tracks.

Next events

Interim results

November 2016

Analysts

Bridie Barrett

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Jane Anscombe

+44 (0)20 3077 5740

Entertainment One is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Entertainment One (eOne) has had a strong first half operationally and, with a good pipeline in Television, Film and the ongoing roll-out of the Family brands internationally, is on track to deliver on its underlying full year expectations. The annual independent library valuation has been updated and has increased by approximately 50% to $1.5bn (£1.2bn), covering the greater part of eOne’s market value, leaving little in the rating for its extensive production and sales network.

Year
end

Revenue (£m)

EBITDA (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

03/15

785.8

107.3

88.8

20.8

1.1

10.2

0.5

03/16

802.7

129.1

104.1

19.4

1.2

11.0

0.6

03/17e

1,003.1

157.0

126.7

20.0

1.3

10.7

0.6

03/18e

1,093.9

178.0

149.4

23.7

1.4

9.0

0.7

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

On track for the full year

eOne has had a strong operating performance in the first half of the year, with the underlying trends of each division developing in line with management’s expectations for the full year. All divisions have had a good period: Television is on track to deliver 1,100 half-hours of content for the full year, benefiting from three new commissions, the Renegade acquisition and a strong performance from international sales. The Mark Gordon Company (MGC) has started delivery of the first show under the new independent studio model, Designated Survivor, which has debuted very well. In Family, Peppa continues its international roll-out with the US merchandising programme ahead of plan, a good start in China and newer brand, PJ Masks, also developing well. Film has had a number of high-profile releases in H1 and management continues to work towards its FY18 target of £10m of annualised cost savings.

All divisions faring well, upgrade for FX

The pipeline for Television and Film looks promising, as is the outlook for Peppa, which will start airing its new 52-episode series in the autumn and has laid strong foundations in the US and China. We are retaining our underlying forecasts for the group, but amend them to capture sterling’s depreciation. Overall, this leads to an increase in our FY17 and FY18 EPS forecasts by 4% and 2% respectively.

Valuation: Library valuation increased to $1.5bn

eOne has also reported a significant increase in the independent valuation of its library, to $1.5bn (as of 31 March 2016) from c $1bn. The main component of the increase relates to last year’s acquisition of a further 35% share of the Peppa Pig brand, along with a strong underlying performance in Family. This valuation is now almost the same as eOne’s current enterprise value, leaving very little in the rating for the value of ‘front-list’ titles or the value of eOne’s extensive production and sales network.

Trading update

Full year on track

While eOne’s H1 trading update does not include any specific financial data, there is plenty of encouraging operational data, and management has said it expects a strong first half operating performance, with the full year on track to reach its underlying expectations. Year-on-year comparisons can jump around considerably depending on the timing of the film release schedule; however, the first half of the year to September tends to be the smaller one (40% of FY16 EBITDA).

Television: eOne Television is on track to deliver around 1,100 half-hours of content (+10% y-o-y). In production, in scripted drama there have been three new commissions (Cardinal, Ransom and Foreign Bodies) and it has secured second series commissions of Private Eyes and You Me Her. Non-scripted has also performed well, benefiting from Renegade’s (acquired in March 2016) new series Naked and Afraid, as has the international sales business. Looking into the second half of the year, the pipeline for both scripted and non-scripted is reportedly strong (including Rogue 4, Saving Hope 5, ICE and Mary Kills People).

The Mark Gordon Company (MGC) has now started delivery of the first show, Designated Survivor, under the new independent studio model. The show has had a strong debut on ABC as the strongest scripted telecast in its time slot for several years, with 45% more viewers than its closest time slot competitor and international sales for the show (also handled now by eOne) have been very strong, including a worldwide (excluding the US) streaming deal with Netflix. Production is now also underway for Conviction, which is due to premier on ABC in October. MGC continues to work on its existing five renewed series and has commenced production on two high-profile, Disney-commissioned films.

Family: Peppa continues its international roll-out and is performing according to plan. In the US, demand for merchandising has been stronger than expected across a number of product categories and the brand is also gaining significant attention in China, with an incredible 6bn views over the last 12 months on local online video sites (iQiyi, Youku and Tudou) and a good rating on state television broadcaster CCTV for its pre-school target market. Ahead of the winter season, a large range of merchandising has been launched by major online retailers including Jingdong and Tmall, as well as by Toys R Us nationwide. The new 52-part series is currently being delivered and is expected to air in the autumn. By refreshing the content, eOne is able to introduce new story lines and characters, which should support the lifetime of the brand.

Film: after two difficult years, Film has had a stronger period in the box office. Although the absolute number of releases is down year-on-year (85 vs 96 last year), there have been a number of high-profile releases including the BFG and David Brent: Life on the Road. Year to date box office takings were $151m compared to $97m last year. While Film will continue to face headwinds in the home entertainment markets, the second-half outlook for the box office also looks relatively strong compared to recent years (including The Girl on the Train, A Monster Calls, La La Land, Office Christmas Party), and a stronger box office this year in Film should support sales in broadcast and digital, as well as the more difficult home entertainment market next year. It continues to work on its restructuring of the film division to deliver £10m of annualised savings (1.5-2% of Film revenues) from 2018.

Forecast changes: Update for currency

eOne has some sensitivity to currency movements, both translation (75% of revenues were generated overseas in FY16) and transactional (eg minimum guarantees, MGs, are usually denominated in US$). It uses forward contracts for significant transactions where there are highly probable forecasts (mainly MG payments) and there is some natural hedging (matching costs and debt with assets). However, we expect some impact from the depreciation of sterling.

We make no change to our underlying forecasts, which already factor in a strong performance in Television and Family and a better theatrical performance for Film in FY17. However, we upgrade our estimates to take account of sterling’s depreciation.

Exhibit 1: Summary forecast changes

2017e

2018e

Previous

New

Change

Previous

New

Change

Revenues (£m)

974

1,003

3.0%

1,072

1,094

2.1%

EBITDA (£m)

152

157

3.0%

175

178

1.7%

PBT - normalised

122

127

3.8%

146

149

2.0%

EPS (p)

19

20

4.2%

23

24

2.1%

Net debt

171

169

-1.0%

129

125

-3.1%

IPF

190

190

-0.1%

215

215

0.1%

Source: Edison Investment Research

Library valuation: Increase in library value to $1.5bn

Historically, eOne was required to undertake an independent valuation of its library annually to support its banking facilities. Last year’s refinancing means this is no longer a requirement. However, eOne continues to provide this valuation to the market. The most recent valuation, dated 31 March 2016, was conducted by Salem Partners (it previously used FTI Consulting). The $1.5bn is a c 50% increase on the previous valuation, primarily reflecting a strong performance from the group’s Family properties, and the additional 35% interest in Peppa Pig, acquired for £140m ($182m) in October 2015. Although detail has not been provided on the basis on which this valuation has been made we understand that the discount rate and allocated overhead costs are consistent with those used in the March 2015 valuation (8.3% WACC and 6% overhead allocation). At a US$:GBP exchange rate of 1.3, this converts to a library valuation of £1.2bn.

eOne’s EV is £1.2bn (including production finance), or about £1.3bn including the minority value of 51%-owned MGC (since the library value includes 100% of MGC’s library, which is all available for distribution through eOne’s network). Even allowing for some need to adjust for other Television JV minorities, this suggests that the greater part of eOne’s market value is underpinned by the library, leaving little in the rating for its extensive production and sales network.

Exhibit 2: eOne’s library valuation over time

Source: eOne

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

£m

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

Year end 31 March

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

823.0

785.8

802.7

1,003.1

1,093.9

Cost of Sales

(642.3)

(578.0)

(610.1)

(762.4)

(831.4)

Gross Profit

180.7

207.8

192.6

240.8

262.5

EBITDA

92.8

107.3

129.1

157.0

178.0

Operating Profit

90.2

103.6

124.7

151.7

172.2

Amortisation of intangibles

(36.0)

(22.2)

(27.4)

(33.0)

(30.0)

Exceptional items

(22.1)

(17.9)

(16.6)

(7.5)

0.0

Share based payment charge

(2.7)

(3.4)

(5.7)

(4.0)

(4.0)

JV tax, finance costs, dep'n

0.0

0.1

(1.6)

0.0

0.0

Operating Profit

29.4

60.2

73.4

107.2

138.2

Net Interest

(11.8)

(14.8)

(20.6)

(25.0)

(22.9)

Exceptional finance items

3.9

(1.4)

(6.5)

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

78.4

88.8

104.1

126.7

149.4

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

21.5

44.0

47.9

82.2

115.4

Tax (reported)

(1.5)

(2.7)

(7.7)

(16.4)

(23.1)

Tax (adjustment for normalised earnings)

(18.4)

(16.8)

(16.2)

(12.2)

(10.5)

Profit After Tax (before non-controlling interests) (norm)

58.5

69.3

80.2

98.1

115.8

Profit After Tax (before non-controlling interests) (FRS3)

20.0

41.2

40.2

65.8

92.3

Non-controlling interests

0.0

0.0

(4.2)

(12.6)

(14.0)

Average Number of Shares, Diluted (m)

318.7

332.9

379.1

427.3

429.4

EPS - normalised (p)

18.4

20.8

19.4

20.0

23.7

EPS - FRS 3 (p)

5.5

12.7

9.8

12.6

18.5

Dividend per share (p)

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

Gross Margin (%)

22.0

26.4

24.0

24.0

24.0

EBITDA Margin (%)

11.3

13.7

16.1

15.7

16.3

Operating Margin (before GW and except) (%)

11.0

13.2

15.5

15.1

15.7

BALANCE SHEET

Non-current Assets

366.0

538.4

890.7

927.8

915.5

Intangible Assets (incl Investment in programmes)

343.1

473.9

808.2

846.4

835.5

Tangible Assets

5.5

6.1

60.1

64.8

70.0

Deferred tax/Investments

17.4

58.4

22.4

16.6

10.1

Current Assets

559.9

634.3

752.0

770.4

842.1

Stocks

47.2

52.0

51.1

51.1

51.1

Investment in content rights

230.1

221.1

241.3

267.9

282.3

Debtors

243.7

289.9

351.3

401.4

458.7

Cash

38.9

71.3

108.3

50.0

50.0

Current Liabilities

(449.2)

(488.3)

(568.7)

(565.1)

(561.0)

Creditors

(401.1)

(398.7)

(470.7)

(467.1)

(463.0)

Short term borrowings

(48.1)

(89.6)

(98.0)

(98.0)

(98.0)

Long Term Liabilities

(168.6)

(319.6)

(413.6)

(415.6)

(396.8)

Long term borrowings

(155.9)

(295.9)

(309.1)

(311.1)

(292.3)

Other long term liabilities

(12.7)

(23.7)

(104.5)

(104.5)

(104.5)

Net Assets

308.1

364.8

660.4

717.6

799.9

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

264.2

271.9

320.3

480.3

586.4

Net Interest

(10.7)

(13.4)

(31.0)

(25.0)

(22.9)

Tax

(5.9)

(10.8)

(17.7)

(20.0)

(27.7)

Capex

(4.2)

(4.8)

(8.6)

(10.0)

(11.0)

Acquisitions/disposals

(6.1)

(104.3)

(226.0)

(5.2)

0.0

Investment in content rights and TV programmes

(281.4)

(280.8)

(218.5)

(475.0)

(500.0)

Proceeds on issue of shares

0.0

0.0

194.6

0.0

0.0

Dividends

0.0

(2.9)

(4.0)

(5.3)

(6.0)

Net Cash Flow

(44.1)

(145.1)

9.1

(60.3)

18.8

Opening net debt/(cash)

144.5

165.1

314.2

298.8

359.1

Movements in exchangeable notes

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other including forex

23.5

(4.0)

6.3

0.0

0.0

Closing IFRS debt/(cash)

165.1

314.2

298.8

359.1

340.3

IFRS net debt split as:

Production finance

54.0

89.3

118.0

189.8

215.2

Net debt

111.1

224.9

180.8

169.3

125.1

Source: eOne (historics), Edison Investment Research (forecasts)

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Entertainment One and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

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Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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Level 15, 171 Featherston St

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New Zealand

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Entertainment One and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

IVS — Update 29 September 2016

IVS

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