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Research: TMT
While Riber’s H121 performance was depressed by the lack of MBE system orders during FY20, customer confidence appears to be returning. The resultant increase in order intake points to a much stronger second half, with management forecasting over €30.0m revenues and an operating income of €1.2m for the full year. We are upgrading our FY21 estimates, raising PBT by 27%, while leaving our FY22 estimates unchanged.
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Riber |
Emerging from the shadow of coronavirus |
H121 results |
Tech hardware & equipment |
5 October 2021 |
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Riber is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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While Riber’s H121 performance was depressed by the lack of MBE system orders during FY20, customer confidence appears to be returning. The resultant increase in order intake points to a much stronger second half, with management forecasting over €30.0m revenues and an operating income of €1.2m for the full year. We are upgrading our FY21 estimates, raising PBT by 27%, while leaving our FY22 estimates unchanged.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/19 |
33.5 |
0.9 |
0.03 |
0.03 |
49.3 |
2.0 |
12/20 |
30.2 |
0.7 |
0.02 |
0.03 |
74.0 |
2.0 |
12/21e |
30.0 |
1.1 |
0.04 |
0.03 |
37.0 |
2.0 |
12/22e |
32.8 |
1.8 |
0.06 |
0.05 |
24.7 |
3.4 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Pandemic causes revenue slowdown in H121
As noted at the end of July, Riber’s H121 revenues fell 20% year-on-year to €9.3m because the coronavirus pandemic had caused a slowdown in MBE system orders during H120 and Q320. R&D costs were 46% higher as the company intensified work on projects with long-term partners, so operating losses widened by €1.0m to €1.9m. Together with capital investment in a high-volume system for partner IntelliEPI, these higher levels of R&D were supported by two loans backed by the French government totalling €8.0m, so while net debt (excluding IFRS 16 lease liabilities) increased by €0.8m during H121 to €1.0m at the period end, there was €7.2m cash on the balance sheet at this point.
Order intake supports FY21 estimates upgrade
Having received orders for only three MBE systems during FY20, customer confidence appears to be improving and it is becoming easier for the group to secure licences to export systems to Asian customers. Four orders were placed in H121, two in Q3 and one so far in Q4, encouraging management to issue guidance for FY21 for the first time, forecasting more than €30.0m revenues and an operating income of €1.2m. We therefore upgrade our FY21 estimates, raising PBT by 27%, while leaving our FY22 estimates unchanged.
Valuation: Trading at a discount to peers
At current levels, Riber’s shares are trading at a discount to the mean of its peers (Aixtron and Veeco) with respect to prospective EV/Sales and EV/EBITDA multiples (eg year 1 EV/EBITDA 11.3x vs 16.5x). We believe that this level of discount is justified given Riber’s smaller market capitalisation and lower margins. However, we see scope for share price appreciation if receipt of a major evaporator order or higher than anticipated numbers of MBE system orders, which could be realised if the apparent easing of export controls continues, drive further estimate upgrades.
H121 results
Pandemic causes temporary revenue slowdown
As noted at the end of July, Riber’s H121 revenues were 20% lower year-on-year at €9.3m. This was because the coronavirus pandemic caused a slowdown in MBE system orders during H120 and Q320. Given the long lead times for building MBE systems, this meant that MBE system sales halved year-on-year during H121 to €2.8m as deliveries dropped from three systems in H120, of which two were production systems, to delivery of a single production system in H121. The situation was made worse by the delay of the delivery of an R&D system from June to July because of coronavirus-related travel restrictions. Revenues from services and accessories rose by 8% to €6.4m, in line with management’s intention to grow this category. As expected, evaporator sales were minimal (€0.1m in both H121 and H120), reflecting a trough in investment in the OLED screen industry.
Gross margin reduced by 1.4pp to 27.5% as a result of product mix. Sales and marketing expenses fell by 10%, mainly reflecting a drop in commissions paid to the company’s sales agents. R&D costs were 46% higher as the company intensified work on projects with long-term partners IntelliEPI, IMEC and CNRS-CRHEA. Administrative expenses reduced by 9% because H120 incurred relatively high advisory fees associated with the onset of the coronavirus pandemic and the organisation of two general assemblies. Operating losses widened by €1.0m to €1.9m through a combination of lower revenues and higher R&D expenses. The increase in losses after tax was not as large (an increase of €0.8m to €1.7m) because of the beneficial effect of the revaluation of the US dollar against the euro on receivables denominated in US dollars and lower tax payable.
Liquidity benefits from €8.0m government-backed loans
Net debt (excluding IFRS 16 lease liabilities) increased by €0.8m during the period to €1.0m at end H121. The key factors behind this were a €2.6m decrease in working capital, €0.5m capitalised R&D and €1.9m capital expenditure (€0.3m in H120). The decrease in working capital relates to a reduction in trade receivables connected to lower revenue levels and a jump in prepayments (typically 30–40% of system revenues) from customers for MBE systems that have yet to be delivered. The increase in capital expenditure relates to the delivery in April 2021 of a higher-throughput MBE 8000 system to IntelliEPI in Texas for trial VCSEL production. This system will remain Riber’s property until the trials complete at the end of FY23. During FY20, Riber obtained two loans backed by the French government totalling €8.0m and repayable over a four-year period from FY22 onwards to ensure it could maintain investment in R&D despite cash flow being affected by order delays. This meant that cash at the end of H121 was €7.2m (€8.0m at end FY20) despite the increased investment in R&D.
Outlook
Order intake strengthening substantially
Riber’s manufacturing facility remained operational throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. Because its MBE systems are used in research on new materials and for the production of electronic and optoelectronic devices used in communications networks and 3D sensing applications such as facial recognition, enquiry levels remained high during FY20, even though only three orders were placed during the year, two of which were received in H220. Conversion of enquiries into orders of MBE systems appears to be picking up as customer confidence returns. Four orders were placed in H121, two of which were from customers in Asia for production systems. The June 2021 order book included €10.5m of MBE systems, all for delivery in FY21 which, together with €6.9m orders for services, resulted in a total order book of €17.4m at end H121, compared with €14.4m at end December 2020 and €17.3m at end March 2021. The June 2021 order book total did not include the additional order for a research system announced in July, or the order in September from an Asian customer for a production system worth several million euros, both of which are scheduled for delivery in FY21. The recent order for a research system from the University of Montpellier is for delivery in FY22. The system will be used to develop antimonide based mid-and-long wavelength infra-red photonics materials deposited on silicon and quantum devices. We note that the difficulties which Riber had experienced in obtaining export licences to Asia appear to be easing.
Upgrade to FY21 estimates
Noting the improving order book, management has issued guidance for FY21 for the first time, forecasting over €30.0m revenues and an operating income of €1.2m. We adjust our FY21 estimates accordingly, modelling higher average selling price (ASP) per system to reflect the order of a high-value system in September. The resultant changes to our estimates are summarised in Exhibit 1. Our estimates assume minimal (€0.3m) evaporator sales in FY21, so the lack of orders so far this year for this product category does not affect this element of our forecasts. We leave our FY22 estimates unchanged.
Exhibit 1: Revisions to estimates
€m |
2020 |
2021e |
2022e |
|||||
Actual |
Old |
New |
Change |
Old |
New |
Change |
||
System revenues |
18.2 |
15.3 |
16.2 |
6.1% |
17.6 |
17.6 |
N/A |
|
Evaporator revenues |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
0.0% |
0.3 |
0.3 |
N/A |
|
Service revenues |
11.7 |
13.5 |
13.5 |
0.0% |
14.9 |
14.9 |
N/A |
|
Total revenues |
30.2 |
29.1 |
30.0 |
3.2% |
32.8 |
32.8 |
N/A |
|
PBT |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
26.5% |
1.8 |
1.8 |
N/A |
|
EPS (€m) |
0.02 |
0.03 |
0.04 |
26.5% |
0.06 |
0.06 |
N/A |
|
DPS (c) |
3.00 |
3.00 |
3.00 |
0.0% |
4.93 |
4.93 |
N/A |
|
Net debt/(cash) at year end |
0.3 |
(0.6) |
(0.5) |
-5.3% |
(2.1) |
(2.5) |
N/A |
|
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
Research: Industrials
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