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Elk Petroleum — Update 26 August 2016

Elk Petroleum — Update 26 August 2016

Elk Petroleum

Analyst avatar placeholder

Written by

Elk Petroleum

Grieve fully funded

Grieve financing secured

Oil & gas

26 August 2016

Price

A$0.08

Market cap

A$53m

A$/US$ = 0.77

Net cash (A$m) end June 2016

18.1

Shares in issue

672.3m

Free float

57.5%

Code

ELK

Primary exchange

ASX

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

9.9

(6.5)

(13.2)

Rel (local)

9.4

(9.7)

(20.7)

52-week high/low

A$0.11

A$0.06

Business description

Elk Petroleum is an enhanced oil recovery (EOR) company. This technology achieves low-cost tertiary recovery of residual oil. Elk’s first project at Grieve in the US is targeted for first production in late 2017. There is a significant opportunity to apply EOR in Australasia, Indonesia and Malaysia.

Next event

FY16 full year results

Sep 2016

Analysts

Ian McLelland

+44 (0)20 3077 5756

Peter Chilton

+61 (0)2 9258 1161

Elk Petroleum is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Elk Petroleum has completed the restructuring of its JV agreement with Denbury Resources for its 12.3mmbbls 2P Grieve enhanced oil recovery (EOR) project. A substantial equity plus debt injection in June/August 2016 will fund the Grieve project to first production in late 2017 or early 2018, with Denbury covering any cost overruns. Including additional equity from a shortfall placement, we estimate a base case valuation for Elk based on 2P reserves of A$0.15/share, with upside from both 3P reserves (an additional A$0.06/share) and 3C contingent resources (an additional A$0.17/share).

Year end

Revenue (A$m)

EBITDA
(A$m)

PBT*
(A$m)

Net cash/ (debt) (A$m)

Debt
(A$m)

Capex
(A$m)

06/15

0.0

(3.1)

(3.6)

(20.9)

(22.5)

2.6

06/16e

0.0

(3.9)

(4.9)

18.1

0.0

(0.6)

06/17e

0.0

(3.8)

(3.7)

(24.0)

(24.0)

(49.7)

06/18e

38.0

24.5

8.6

(32.0)

(32.0)

(25.0)

Note: *PBT is normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Restructuring complete

Elk has completed the restructuring of its JV agreement with CO2 EOR specialist Denbury for its Grieve oil development, increasing Elk’s entitlement interest in the project from 35% to 49%. Once in production in late 2017 or early 2018, Elk will receive 70% of the first 2mmbbls of production, while enjoying the benefits of low cost CO2 feedstock (to cover the field 2P reserves) and additional income from Elk’s 100% owned oil export pipeline.

Funding secured, overruns protected

Elk has secured a US$58m debt facility from US-based Benefit Street Partners (BSP) to fund the outstanding capex to get to first oil (US$55m net to Elk). In addition, Elk raised c A$20m of new equity in June 2016 with subscriptions received for a further c A$11m from Elk’s entitlement offer shortfall placement. We estimate this funding will provide Elk with c US$12m of headroom on its debt facilities at peak debt ahead of first production. Elk has implemented a substantial hedging programme to cover its debt exposure that we expect to be repaid out of cash flows from the first c 2mmbbls of gross production. Denbury will also cover any cost overrun to first oil over and above Elk’s US$55m injection.

Valuation firms up with equity confirmed

Including the fresh equity that has been raised at A$0.075/share, we have updated our valuations for Elk. Our base case valuation for 2P reserves at Grieve on an unrisked and diluted basis (including the anticipated shortfall placement) is A$0.15/share, increasing to A$0.21/share if it can successfully develop 3P reserves. We also see upside in Grieve’s contingent resources, with an additional A$0.17/share possible through the development of the field’s 3C resources.

Elk Petroleum: Grieve development confirmed

Elk has completed the restructuring of its Grieve joint venture agreement with Denbury Resources and completed debt and equity financing to fund it through to production in late 2017 or early 2018. The restructuring confirms the arrangements initially announced in December 2015 whereby Elk will increase its entitlement interest in the field to 49%. Post royalties this equates to 2P reserves net to Elk of 5.3mmbbls, with the potential to also exploit possible reserves (3P net reserves are 7.0mmbbls) along with 7.0mmbbls of 3C net contingent resources.

In parallel with the restructuring deal, Elk has secured debt and equity funding that, with additional committed equity from the shortfall placement, will fully fund Elk’s capital requirements to first production. Furthermore, Elk is not exposed to overruns to first oil with its Grieve partner, Denbury Resources, covering costs overrun beyond a firm cap on Elk’s development costs.

Terms of the restructuring deal

Elk is increasing its entitlement interest in the Grieve field from 35% to 49% in return for a net investment of c US$35m. This entails Elk paying the remaining third of the Grieve development costs up to a cap of US$55m (Denbury will cover any cost overruns beyond this point). Denbury will also forgo recovery from Elk of c US$20m of previously carried costs associated with prior joint venture funding arrangements between the two parties for the Grieve development. Elk estimates the 49% interest being transferred from Denbury to Elk has an asset value of c US$60m.

Denbury will supply and cover all costs of CO2 up to first oil production, and any additional CO2 up to 82bcf will be provided at Denbury’s cost of CO2. Net of recycle, the 82bcf of CO2 supply is expected to be sufficient to extract 100% of the 12.3mmbbls of gross Grieve 2P reserves.

Elk will receive preferentially inflated cash flows from the first 2mmbbls of gross production at Grieve, namely 75% of the cash flow from the first 1mmbbls of gross production, and 65% of the cash flows from the second 1mmbbls of gross production. Elk will also enjoy revenue from gross production over the life of the project by earning a haulage charge of US$3/bbl (c US$19m for Denbury’s 51% retained interest) under a binding long-term regulated pipeline tariff to export Grieve production via Elk’s 100% owned export pipeline.

Financing: Debt secured, entitlement offer partially completed

Elk has secured US$58m of conventional term-loan oil field development financing from US based Providence Capital subsidiary, Benefit Street Partners (BSP) to fund its outstanding capital requirements to first oil. The company has not disclosed the terms of this funding but given the familiarity of CO2 enhanced oil recovery projects in the US, and with Denbury as operator, we would expect the terms of the loan to be fair and not distressed.

Elk has undertaken a substantial hedging programme to cover its development cost exposure at Grieve. Again, we do not have terms for this but we estimate that based on Edison’s oil price assumptions Elk should be able to pay down a substantial portion of its debt commitments by mid-2019 with the first c 2mmbbls of gross production.

In addition to debt, Elk has also raised substantial equity to fund it through to Grieve production. Up to August 2016 the company has raised A$30.8m in new equity, the majority coming from a partially underwritten 7.5c/share entitlement offer from the first tranche in June 2016, raising A$19.6m, and an additional A$11.1m through the placement of the remaining shortfall under the entitlement offer to sophisticated investors in August 2016.

Post the debt and equity raises described above, Elk has issued updated guidance on production. We have increased our forecasts to reflect these accordingly, in particular increasing our 2018 revenues to A$38.0m (from A$22.5m).

Elk exited FY2016 ending June 2016 with A$18.1m of cash and no debt (following conversion of A$3.6m of convertible debt in the previous quarter). The company can now draw down on its US$58m facility with BSP and expects to deploy A$30m of this in the coming quarter on Grieve capex. We estimate that peak debt prior to first oil in H217 is likely to be c A$60m (US$46m), giving Elk a comfortable US$12m headroom on its facilities.

Valuation: Entitlement offer firms up valuation potential

In our initiation note on Elk published in May 2016, a key uncertainty to the ultimate valuation for Elk shareholders was the share price at which equity could be raised to fund the Grieve development. In the June 2016 entitlement offer, equity was raised at A$0.075/share. Building this into our cases for 2P (our base case) and 3P reserves and the upside potential from 3C contingent resources, we suggest on an unrisked basis an updated valuation (on a diluted basis assuming the shortfall shares are issued) of A$0.15/share for the base case, A$0.21/share for the 3P reserves, and an additional A$0.17/share for the 3C contingent resources (Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1: Elk valuation cases for 2P, 3P and 3C reserves and resources

2P reserves

3P reserves

3C contingent resources

Grieve NPV (US$m)

80.2

118.4

84.3

Grieve NPV (A$m)

104.3

153.9

109.5

Singleton (book value) (A$m)

3.3

3.3

EV (A$m)

107.6

157.2

109.5

Net cash/(debt) end FY 2016 (A$m)

18.1

18.1

18.1

G&A (NPV 3 years) (A$m)

-8.7

-8.7

Elk capex commitments (ex Grieve) (A$m)

-3.3

-3.3

ELK valuation (A$m) (undiluted)

113.8

163.4

127.6

Current issued shares (m)

672.3

672.3

672.3

ELK valuation (A$/share) (undiluted)

0.17

0.24

0.19

Remaining shortfall capacity shares to be issued at 7.5c/sh (m)

148.5

148.5

148.5

Equity to be raised with shortfall capacity shares (A$m)

11.1

11.1

11.1

ELK valuation (A$m) (diluted)

124.9

174.5

138.8

Diluted issued shares (m)

820.8

820.8

820.8

ELK valuation (A$/share) (diluted)

0.15

0.21

0.17

A$/US$

0.77

Source: Edison Investment Research

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

 

 

A$'000s

2014

2015

2016e

2017e

2018e

2019e

Year end June

 

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

327

38

38

38

37,972

57,244

Cost of sales

(803)

(264)

(300)

(300)

(9,970)

(12,331)

Gross profit

(476)

(226)

(262)

(262)

28,003

44,913

General & admin

(3,639)

(2,901)

(3,680)

(3,500)

(3,500)

(3,500)

EBITDA

 

 

(4,115)

(3,127)

(3,942)

(3,762)

24,503

41,413

Depreciation

(1,050)

(243)

(169)

(170)

(13,478)

(16,649)

EBIT (before amort. and except.)

(5,165)

(3,370)

(4,112)

(3,932)

11,025

24,764

Intangible amortisation

0

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(2,060)

0

(1,200)

0

0

0

Other

0

0

0

0

0

0

EBIT

(7,225)

(3,370)

(5,311)

(3,932)

11,025

24,764

Net interest

(122)

(276)

(742)

200

(2,405)

(3,197)

Profit before tax (norm)

 

(5,287)

(3,646)

(4,854)

(3,732)

8,620

21,568

Profit before tax (FRS 3)

 

(7,347)

(3,646)

(6,053)

(3,732)

8,620

21,568

Tax

0

0

0

0

253

219

Profit after tax (norm)

(5,287)

(3,646)

(4,854)

(3,732)

8,874

21,787

Profit after tax (FRS 3)

(7,347)

(3,646)

(6,053)

(3,732)

8,874

21,787

Average number of shares outstanding (m)

180.2

196.7

667.9

816.3

816.3

816.3

EPS - normalised (c)

 

(2.9)

(1.9)

(0.7)

(0.5)

1.1

2.7

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

(2.9)

(1.9)

(0.7)

(0.5)

1.1

2.7

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

(4.1)

(1.9)

(0.9)

(0.5)

1.1

2.7

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Gross Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

73.7

78.5

EBITDA Margin (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

64.5

72.3

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

29.0

43.3

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

20,176

28,979

29,481

79,036

90,583

73,935

Intangible assets

20,128

28,953

29,035

29,035

29,035

29,035

Tangible assets

48

26

446

50,001

61,549

44,900

Investments

0

0

0

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

3,261

2,549

19,085

982

5,473

13,782

Stocks

9

0

0

0

1,553

2,341

Debtors

35

168

168

168

3,106

4,683

Cash

403

1,567

18,103

0

0

5,944

Other

2,814

813

813

813

813

813

Current Liabilities

 

(5,216)

(11,548)

(4,377)

(4,377)

(3,624)

(5,463)

Creditors

(2,900)

(7,962)

(4,377)

(4,377)

(3,624)

(5,463)

Short term borrowings

(2,316)

(3,585)

0

0

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

(17,385)

(22,147)

(3,216)

(27,265)

(35,182)

(3,216)

Long term borrowings

(12,589)

(18,931)

0

(24,048)

(31,966)

0

Other long term liabilities

(4,797)

(3,216)

(3,216)

(3,216)

(3,216)

(3,216)

Net Assets

 

 

835

(2,167)

40,973

48,376

57,250

79,037

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

(3,712)

(3,337)

(4,684)

(3,562)

17,107

37,910

Net interest

0

0

0

0

0

0

Tax

0

0

0

0

0

0

Capex

(863)

2,560

(555)

(49,725)

(25,025)

0

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

0

0

0

0

Equity issued

2,660

742

25,361

11,136

0

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(1,916)

(36)

20,121

(42,152)

(7,918)

37,910

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

4,216

14,501

20,949

(18,103)

24,048

31,966

HP finance leases initiated

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other

(8,370)

(6,412)

18,931

0

0

0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

14,501

20,949

(18,103)

24,048

31,966

(5,944)

Source: Edison Investment Research


Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Elk Petroleum and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Elk Petroleum and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

NetScientific — Update 26 August 2016

NetScientific

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