Last close As at 05/08/2026
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Research: Healthcare
Nicox has provided a preliminary Q223 update, with net revenue (primarily consisting of net royalties attributable to net sales of Vyzulta by global licensee Bausch + Lomb, or B+L) of €0.9m, up from €0.7m in Q222. Total US Vyzulta prescriptions grew 26% in Q223 (vs 23% in Q122 and 25% in Q422). Importantly, the company reiterated its guidance that it expects to complete the Denali study in 2025. Denali is the company’s second Phase III study assessing lead candidate NCX-470, a nitric oxide (NO) donating bimatoprost, in the treatment of elevated intraocular pressure (IOP) in patients with glaucoma or ocular hypertension (OHTN). Denali enrolment and randomisation is around 55% complete, which provides us with confidence that the company will complete the trial within the currently anticipated timeline. We continue to anticipate that NCX-470 could reach commercial launch in 2027. Nicox reported €19.0m in gross cash at 30 June (vs €27.7m at 31 December 2022), and expects its cash runway should fund its operations into June 2024, based on the development of NCX-470 alone.
Nicox |
Denali trial remains on track for 2025 readout |
Q223 highlights |
Pharma and biotech |
21 July 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
Analysts
Nicox is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited. |
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Nicox has provided a preliminary Q223 update, with net revenue (primarily consisting of net royalties attributable to net sales of Vyzulta by global licensee Bausch + Lomb, or B+L) of €0.9m, up from €0.7m in Q222. Total US Vyzulta prescriptions grew 26% in Q223 (vs 23% in Q122 and 25% in Q422). Importantly, the company reiterated its guidance that it expects to complete the Denali study in 2025. Denali is the company’s second Phase III study assessing lead candidate NCX-470, a nitric oxide (NO) donating bimatoprost, in the treatment of elevated intraocular pressure (IOP) in patients with glaucoma or ocular hypertension (OHTN). Denali enrolment and randomisation is around 55% complete, which provides us with confidence that the company will complete the trial within the currently anticipated timeline. We continue to anticipate that NCX-470 could reach commercial launch in 2027. Nicox reported €19.0m in gross cash at 30 June (vs €27.7m at 31 December 2022), and expects its cash runway should fund its operations into June 2024, based on the development of NCX-470 alone.
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/21 |
8.6 |
(15.5) |
(0.32) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/22 |
5.2 |
(18.3) |
(0.34) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/23e |
6.6 |
(19.8) |
(0.39) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/24e |
7.6 |
(22.4) |
(0.44) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. Revenue figures reflect gross revenues.
Nicox has pushed back the timing of its two planned Phase IIIb studies, which we discussed in more detail in our November update note, intended to potentially strengthen NCX-470’s competitive profile versus other prostaglandin F2α (PGA) and topical drug treatments for glaucoma. One of these studies, Whistler, is designed to assess NCX-470’s dual mechanism of action (NO release and PGA) on IOP lowering, and is now expected to start in H223. The other Phase IIIb study, aiming to assess the drug’s possible retinal blood flow effects using optical coherence tomography angiography, is now expected to start in 2024. Each of these studies are expected to take about one year to complete and were previously guided to start in Q222. As all of the clinical data required for the regulatory New Drug Applications (NDAs) in the US and China are covered by existing and prior NCX-470 studies (primarily the Mont Blanc and Denali Phase III trials), the read-out timelines from these two studies are not expected to influence the timing of the approval of NCX-470. Further, data from these studies, which could be supportive of NCX-470’s competitive profile, are still expected to be released well before product launch.
We remind readers that Nicox is entitled to tiered net royalties of 6–12% on net Vyzulta sales through its arrangement with B+L, which takes into account the Vyzulta-related royalties that Nicox must pay to Pfizer. Nicox has not yet reported Q222 gross royalties or the amount of royalty revenue it paid to Pfizer, but we note that in FY22 it paid €2.0m in royalties to Pfizer (€0.9m in H122) and hence the annualised Q222 net revenue results are broadly in line with our unchanged estimate of €5.8m in gross FY23 Vyzulta royalty revenue (our €6.6m FY23 total revenue estimate also includes other licence and collaboration revenue).
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Research: TMT
On the back of recent work Filtronic has undertaken to develop products for communication between low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites and ground stations, the company has won a contract worth £3.2m with the European Space Agency (ESA). Filtronic has started work on developing prototypes and expects to deliver the final hardware by 31 March 2025. The contract supports our FY24 estimates and we maintain our forecasts pending FY23 results on 1 August.