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Nicox

PAR: COX

Market Cap€64m

Last Close €1.27

France-based Nicox develops therapeutics for the treatment of ocular conditions. Its lead candidate NCX-470 is in Phase III studies for the treatment of glaucoma, and it is advancing NCX-4251 for DED. Nicox also receives licence revenue for its FDA-approved drugs Vyzulta and Zerviate.

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Investment summary

Nicox announced a €10m private placement equity financing transaction, resulting in €8.9m in net proceeds. With the company extending the interest-only payment period of its existing Kreos Capital debt by six months (to January 2024), it has extended its estimated cash runway (based on the development of NCX-470 alone) to mid-May 2024, from mid-November 2023, previously. Altogether, Nicox issued 6.849m shares at an offering price of €1.46 per share (a 14% discount to the 21 November closing price) to Armistice Capital Master Fund, a healthcare and consumer sector focused hedge fund registered in the Cayman Islands. Nicox also affirmed that it now expects to complete Denali, the second NCX-470 Phase III study, in 2025, consistent with our existing estimates, although additional capital will be required. Our rNPV of €190.4m is unchanged, but our equity value per basic share is now €4.10 (vs €4.52 previously) given the additional shares outstanding.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (€m)
EBITDA (€m)
PBT (€m)
EPS (fd) (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2020A 14.4 (5.3) (10.2) (30.33) N/A N/A
2021A 8.6 (16.5) (15.5) (34.83) N/A N/A
2022E 5.2 (19.0) (17.3) (33.49) N/A N/A
2023E 7.3 (15.8) (17.4) (34.43) N/A N/A
Industry outlook

In addition to its IOP-lowering activity, Nicox is investigating whether NCX-470 can provide improvements to retinal perfusion, which may provide an additional protective mechanism for glaucoma treatment. Nicox had €25.6m gross cash at 30 September 2022 and has guided that it is financed into Q423, based on the development of NCX-470 alone.

Last updated on 30/11/2022
Content on Nicox
Nicox – €10m financing boosts cash runway into Q224
Healthcare | research Update | 23 November 2022
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Nicox – Revising NCX-470 forecasts after Mont Blanc
Healthcare | research Update | 10 November 2022
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Nicox – NCX-470 non-inferior to latanoprost in Mont Blanc
Healthcare | research Flash note | 31 October 2022
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Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net cash (€m) 9.9
Forecast gearing ratio (%) N/A
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual (28.2) (34.2) (56.5)
Relative* (33.0) (39.6) (55.9)
52-week high/low €3.1/€1.3
*% relative to local index
Key management
Michele Garufi Chairman
Andreas Segerros CEO
Gavin Spencer Executive VP and Chief Business Officer