Nicox

PAR: COX

Market Cap€64m

Last Close €1.27

France-based Nicox develops therapeutics for the treatment of ocular conditions. Its lead candidate NCX-470 is in Phase III studies for the treatment of glaucoma, and it is advancing NCX-4251 for DED. Nicox also receives licence revenue for its FDA-approved drugs Vyzulta and Zerviate.

Investment summary

Nicox announced a €10m private placement equity financing transaction, resulting in €8.9m in net proceeds. With the company extending the interest-only payment period of its existing Kreos Capital debt by six months (to January 2024), it has extended its estimated cash runway (based on the development of NCX-470 alone) to mid-May 2024, from mid-November 2023, previously. Altogether, Nicox issued 6.849m shares at an offering price of €1.46 per share (a 14% discount to the 21 November closing price) to Armistice Capital Master Fund, a healthcare and consumer sector focused hedge fund registered in the Cayman Islands. Nicox also affirmed that it now expects to complete Denali, the second NCX-470 Phase III study, in 2025, consistent with our existing estimates, although additional capital will be required. Our rNPV of €190.4m is unchanged, but our equity value per basic share is now €4.10 (vs €4.52 previously) given the additional shares outstanding.

Y/E Dec	Revenue (€m)	EBITDA (€m)	PBT (€m)	EPS (fd) (c)	P/E (x)	P/CF (x)
2020A	14.4	(5.3)	(10.2)	(30.33)	N/A	N/A
2021A	8.6	(16.5)	(15.5)	(34.83)	N/A	N/A
2022E	5.2	(19.0)	(17.3)	(33.49)	N/A	N/A
2023E	7.3	(15.8)	(17.4)	(34.43)	N/A	N/A

Industry outlook

In addition to its IOP-lowering activity, Nicox is investigating whether NCX-470 can provide improvements to retinal perfusion, which may provide an additional protective mechanism for glaucoma treatment. Nicox had €25.6m gross cash at 30 September 2022 and has guided that it is financed into Q423, based on the development of NCX-470 alone.

Last updated on 30/11/2022