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Nicox

EU: COX

Market Cap€113.2m

Last Close €2.63

Based in France, Nicox develops therapeutics for the treatment of ocular conditions. Lead development candidate NCX-470 is in Phase III studies for the treatment of glaucoma. Nicox also receives licence revenue from its partners for its FDA-approved drugs Vyzulta and Zerviate.

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Investment summary

Nicox announced on 9 December that it has raised €15m in gross proceeds (€13.7m net) through a private placement and restructured its bond financing agreement with Kreos Capital. Management expects these initiatives to extend Nicox’s cash runway to Q423, and thus comfortably past the top-line Mont Blanc Phase III study data readout for NCX-470 in glaucoma, expected in Q123. We expect the Mont Blanc data release to be a potential key catalyst for the company. The improved funding visibility through this milestone helps reduce a financial overhang and may draw investors’ attention more strongly towards NCX-470’s opportunity as a potential best-in-class single-agent glaucoma therapy.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (€m)
EBITDA (€m)
PBT (€m)
EPS (fd) (c)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2019A 8.3 (17.2) (16.0) (40.10) N/A N/A
2020A 14.4 (5.3) (10.2) (30.33) N/A N/A
2021E 5.7 (19.9) (20.3) (54.51) N/A N/A
2022E 8.8 (15.1) (16.5) (44.04) N/A N/A
Industry outlook

NCX-470, if approved, could become the most efficacious single-agent glaucoma drug on the market in terms of IOP lowering activity. Mont Blanc, the first of two Phase III NCX-470 studies, recently exceeded 70% enrolment, and results are expected in Q123. We expect a H225 launch and sales of c €500m in 2031 in the United States and major markets. Nicox had €14.6m net cash at Q321, which we model should last into H222.

Last updated on 21/01/2022
Content on Nicox
Nicox – Funded through key milestones
Healthcare | Update | 16 December 2021
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Nicox – Mississippi data shows benefit in dry eye
Healthcare | Flash note | 2 December 2021
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Nicox – Commercial products continue to grow
Healthcare | Update | 26 October 2021
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Pooya Hemami

Analyst
Sector
Healthcare
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Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net cash (€m) 11.7
Forecast gearing ratio (%) N/A
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual 1.7 (21.4) (45.7)
Relative* 0.3 (24.9) (55.9)
52-week high/low €4.7/€2.5
*% relative to local index
Key management
Gavin Spencer Executive VP and Chief Business Officer
Michele Garufi Chairman and CEO
Company website

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