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Currency in EUR
Last close As at 27/03/2023
EUR0.65
▲ −0.03 (−4.41%)
Market capitalisation
EUR34m
France-based Nicox develops therapeutics for the treatment of ocular conditions. Lead candidate NCX-470 is in Phase III studies for the treatment of glaucoma and it is advancing NCX-4251 for dry eye disease. Nicox receives licence revenue for its FDA-approved drugs Vyzulta and Zerviate.
In addition to its established IOP-lowering activity, Nicox is starting a Phase IIIb study in H123 to investigate whether NCX-470 can provide improvements to retinal perfusion, which may provide an additional protective mechanism for glaucoma treatment. Nicox had €27.7m gross cash at 31 December 2022 and has guided that it is financed into Q224, based on the development of NCX-470 alone.
Healthcare
Analyst - Healthcare
Andreas Segerros
CEO
Gavin Spencer
Executive VP and Chief Business Officer
Michele Garufi
Chairman
Forecast net cash (€m)
9.9
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
N/A
| % | 1M | 3M | 12M |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | (18.7) | (40.0) | (66.4) |
| Relative | (15.9) | (44.2) | (68.4) |
| 52 week high/low | €2.1/€0.6 |
Nicox’s headline FY22 results were in line with the Q422 update provided in January, although greater clarity on gross product sales royalties suggests that Vyzulta sales traction is stronger than we had anticipated. Gross product sales-related licensing revenue came in at €5.2m (+39% year-on-year), the bulk of which we assume was derived from Vyzulta royalties, above our €4.9m estimate. We modestly increased our Vyzulta forecasts, although we note that NCX-470 remains the primary driver for our valuation, and our local currency NCX-470 estimates are unchanged. Given a strengthening euro versus the US dollar and increases in our R&D cost estimates following the FY22 results, we revise our rNPV valuation down to €166.8m (versus €190.4m previously).
| Y/E Dec | Revenue (€m) | EBITDA (€m) | PBT (€m) | EPS (fd) (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020A | 14.4 | (5.3) | (10.2) | (30.33) | N/A | N/A |
| 2021A | 8.6 | (16.5) | (15.5) | (34.83) | N/A | N/A |
| 2022E | 5.2 | (19.0) | (17.3) | (33.49) | N/A | N/A |
| 2023E | 7.3 | (15.8) | (17.4) | (34.43) | N/A | N/A |
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