Nicox (Euronext Growth: ALCOX)

Currency in EUR

Last close As at 28/11/2023

EUR0.39

−0.02 (−4.88%)

Market capitalisation

EUR21m

France-based Nicox develops therapeutics for the treatment of ocular conditions. Lead candidate NCX-470 is in Phase III studies for the treatment of glaucoma and it is advancing NCX-4251 for dry eye disease. Nicox receives licence revenue for its FDA-approved drugs Vyzulta and Zerviate.

Nicox is starting a Phase IIIb study in Q423 to assess NCX-470’s dual mechanisms of action for the reduction of intraocular pressure. It also plans to start a separate Phase IIIb study in 2024 to investigate whether NCX-470 can provide improvements to retinal perfusion. Nicox had €14.6m gross cash at 30 September 2023 and has guided that it is financed until June 2024, based on the development of NCX-470 alone.

Latest Insights

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Healthcare | Update

Nicox — Q323 update confirms trajectory for NCX-470

Healthcare | Flash note

Nicox — Denali trial remains on track for 2025 readout

Healthcare | Flash note

Nicox — Nicox provides NCX-470 sales potential estimates

Healthcare | Update

Nicox — Revisiting commercial assumptions

Sector

Healthcare

Equity Analyst

Pooya Hemami

Analyst - Healthcare

Key Management

  • Andreas Segerros

    CEO

  • Gavin Spencer

    Executive VP and Chief Business Officer

  • Michele Garufi

    Chairman

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (€m)

9.2

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

26

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual 21.1 (10.9) (72.8)
Relative 13.1 (11.1) (74.6)
52 week high/low €1.4/€0.3

Financials

At its Q323 update Nicox reiterated its guidance that it expects to report primary efficacy data for the Denali study in 2025. Denali is the company’s second Phase III study assessing lead candidate NCX-470, a nitric oxide (NO) donating bimatoprost, in the treatment of elevated intraocular pressure (IOP) in patients with glaucoma or ocular hypertension (OHTN). The next clinical catalyst is the initiation of the Phase IIIb Whistler trial in Q423, which aims to assess NCX-470’s dual mechanisms of action (NO-release and uveoscleral outflow). The results (anticipated near YE24) could help differentiate NCX-470 from competing glaucoma therapeutics. At 30 September gross cash was at €14.6m, which we expect to provide a cash runway into June 2024, while the company continues to seek partnerships for NCX-470. After rolling forward our estimates, we obtain an equity valuation of €119.4m, or €2.38 per basic share.

Y/E Dec Revenue (€m) EBITDA (€m) PBT (€m) EPS (fd) (c) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2021A 8.6 (16.5) (15.5) (31.74) N/A N/A
2022A 5.2 (21.1) (18.3) (33.68) N/A N/A
2023E 6.1 (16.4) (15.6) (31.19) N/A N/A
2024E 7.6 (18.0) (20.3) (40.50) N/A N/A

Research

Update

Healthcare

Nicox — Revisiting commercial assumptions

Flash note

Healthcare

Nicox — Chinese partner Ocumension files Zerviate NDA

Update

Healthcare

Nicox — Continuing NCX-470 development strategy

edison tv

Healthcare

Nicox – executive interview

Flash note

Healthcare

Nicox — Q4 highlights confirm continued Vyzulta growth

Update

Healthcare

Nicox — €10m financing boosts cash runway into Q224

Update

Healthcare

Nicox — Revising NCX-470 forecasts after Mont Blanc

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