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Research: Healthcare
Nicox has reported that an in vivo study carried out in beagles found that NCX-470 (0.1%) treatment led to a greater degree of intraocular pressure (IOP) reduction compared to AbbVie’s Lumigan (bimatoprost 0.01%), the best-selling branded prostaglandin F2α analogue (PGA) drug, in both single and repeated (five-day) dosing. The newly reported data from the open-label cross-over study assessing NCX-470, Lumigan and vehicle were published in the peer-reviewed Journal of Ocular Pharmacology and Therapeutics. While we acknowledge the limitations in read-across from animal data and note the Mont Blanc study did not show statistical superiority against PGA drug latanoprost (although it did meet the non-inferiority primary efficacy endpoint), we believe the new findings add to the body of collective data suggesting a competitive commercial profile for NCX-470 versus standalone PGA drugs such as bimatoprost.
Nicox |
Animal data show favourable profile vs Lumigan |
Study update |
Pharma and biotech |
18 December 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
Analysts
Nicox is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited. |
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Nicox has reported that an in vivo study carried out in beagles found that NCX-470 (0.1%) treatment led to a greater degree of intraocular pressure (IOP) reduction compared to AbbVie’s Lumigan (bimatoprost 0.01%), the best-selling branded prostaglandin F2α analogue (PGA) drug, in both single and repeated (five-day) dosing. The newly reported data from the open-label cross-over study assessing NCX-470, Lumigan and vehicle were published in the peer-reviewed Journal of Ocular Pharmacology and Therapeutics. While we acknowledge the limitations in read-across from animal data and note the Mont Blanc study did not show statistical superiority against PGA drug latanoprost (although it did meet the non-inferiority primary efficacy endpoint), we believe the new findings add to the body of collective data suggesting a competitive commercial profile for NCX-470 versus standalone PGA drugs such as bimatoprost.
Year end |
Revenue** |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/21 |
8.6 |
(15.5) |
(0.32) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/22 |
5.2 |
(18.3) |
(0.34) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/23e |
6.1 |
(15.6) |
(0.31) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/24e |
7.6 |
(20.3) |
(0.40) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Revenue figures reflect gross revenues.
Nicox’s lead candidate NCX-470 is a nitric oxide donating bimatoprost, in a second Phase III study (Denali) in the treatment of elevated IOP in patients with glaucoma or ocular hypertension. As recently disclosed by Nicox, the peer-reviewed article by Galli et al. found that after single dosing, NCX-470 showed stronger IOP reduction than Lumigan at most tested timepoints up to 24 hours post-dosing. In the repeat dosing study component, the effects of both Lumigan and NCX-470 were generally consistent and stable throughout the study evaluation period, with NCX-470 showing consistently stronger decreases in IOP compared to Lumigan at all the tested timepoints. We note that the tested 0.1% NCX-470 drug concentration is the same as what was selected for the two Phase III NCX-470 pivotal trials (the now-completed Mont Blanc study and the ongoing Denali trial).
Previously reported non-clinical data from another animal model, also discussed in the journal article, suggested NCX-470’s mechanisms for IOP reduction included both the uveoscleral pathway traditionally associated with PGA drugs, but also improvements in outflow through the trabecular meshwork (TM) and/or Schlemm’s canal, which we believe is likely due to the NO donating properties of NCX-470. Nicox plans to initiate the Whistler Phase IIIb trial in the coming weeks, which is designed to evaluate NCX-470’s effects on aqueous humour dynamics, including its outflow through TM, and may confirm NCX-470’s ability to lower IOP through the TM/SC pathway, potentially differentiating it from traditional PGA drugs. Nicox reiterated in October that the Denali trial is on track to report data in 2025, and we estimate it can potentially reach commercialisation in the US in 2027. Nicox maintains it remains funded until end-H124 based on the development of NCX-470 alone and it is seeking potential partnership arrangements (particularly for NCX-470), which could provide non-dilutive funding and extend its cash runway. It is also exploring multiple strategic options.
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Research: Financials
In its update for the August to December period, S&U posted good growth in its net receivables balances in both Advantage and Aspen. Advantage reported a drop in live collections to 91% (H123: 94%), but bad debts and voluntary terminations remain below budget. Aspen continues to experience good volume with transactions improving in the quarter, while repayments remain above budget. Additionally, group borrowings reached £209m as S&U continues to fund its growth initiatives. Management announced that following a review by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), it has appointed a Skilled Person to help further align Advantage Finance’s processes with the FCA’s standards including the new Consumer Duty requirements.