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Research: Healthcare
Deinove
Written by
Deinove |
Broadening the offering |
Post-capital raising update |
Alternative energy |
12 January 2016 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Deinove is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Deinove has secured additional financial resources that will allow it to continue the development of its technology in the field of green chemistry and biofuels. The majority of the funds raised will be used to finance developments in Deinochem (green chemistry), which we now expect will contribute an increased proportion of future revenues.
Year end |
Revenue (€m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/13 |
0.1 |
(5.0) |
(61.5) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/14 |
0.2 |
(6.6) |
(98.6) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/15e |
0.2 |
(8.1) |
(90.3) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/16e |
0.2 |
(8.1) |
(61.2) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Successful capital-raising
At the end of 2015 Deinove successfully raised €10.7m (gross) via the issue of new equity. The capital-raising resulted in the issue of 2.37m new shares (at a price of €4.5), taking the total number of shares outstanding to 8.55m. Together with funds raised from the issue of shares as part of its equity drawdown arrangement, Deinove should have sufficient financial resources to continue the development of its major business lines in to 2018.
Increased focus on green chemistry
The proceeds of the capital-raise will be apportioned in the ratio of 60% to Deinochem and 40% to Deinol. The split is indicative of the current focus of the business on green chemistry and will provide for continuing diversification away from potential biofuel-related revenue. However, despite the uncertainty surrounding Deinove’s relationship with Abengoa, we expect that Deinove will continue to develop its green fuel proposition with other partners such as Suez Environnement. Of the Deinochem share, c 30% will be devoted to developing the muconic acid platform, with the rest slated for carotenoid/speciality chemical projects (animal feed/cosmetics with Avril and Flint Hills Resources among others).
Valuation: DCF indicates potential upside
We have updated our valuation and forecasts to reflect the increased number of shares in issue, the enhanced cash balances and changes to our revenue generation assumptions following the partnership agreements announced in H215. We continue to use a DCF as our principal valuation tool and assume commercial revenues commence in FY18. We expect revenues to be generated by both Deinol (biofuels) and Deinochem (green chemistry), but with a greater percentage than previously assumed from Deinochem (40% of revenues by 2020). Using a discount rate of 11% (no terminal value) and assuming a long-term ethanol price of $1.50/gallon, our valuation indicates a value of €7.9/share. Long-term ethanol prices of $2/gallon would increase the valuation of the business to c €11.3/share.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€'000s |
2013 |
2014 |
2015e |
2016e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
51 |
156 |
220 |
225 |
Cost of sales |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Gross profit |
51 |
156 |
220 |
225 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(5,156) |
(6,515) |
(7,354) |
(7,230) |
Operating profit (before amort. and except.) |
(5,156) |
(6,520) |
(8,253) |
(8,504) |
||
Intangible Amortisation |
367 |
540 |
26 |
26 |
||
Exceptionals |
21 |
(735) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating profit |
(4,768) |
(6,715) |
(8,227) |
(8,478) |
||
Net Interest |
122 |
(37) |
144 |
449 |
||
Profit before tax (norm) |
|
|
(5,034) |
(6,557) |
(8,110) |
(8,055) |
Profit before tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(5,380) |
(7,832) |
(8,136) |
(8,081) |
Tax |
1,960 |
1,374 |
1,780 |
2,550 |
||
Profit after tax (norm.) |
(3,074) |
(5,183) |
(6,330) |
(5,505) |
||
Profit after tax (FRS 3) |
(3,420) |
(6,458) |
(6,356) |
(5,531) |
||
Average number of shares outstanding (m) |
5.0 |
5.3 |
7.0 |
9.0 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
(61.5) |
(98.6) |
(90.3) |
(61.2) |
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
(53.7) |
(102.3) |
(90.0) |
(60.9) |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Gross margin (%) |
100.0 |
100.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
||
EBITDA margin (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
||
Operating margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed assets |
|
|
2,833 |
2,303 |
2,880 |
3,080 |
Intangible assets |
85 |
99 |
73 |
47 |
||
Tangible assets |
609 |
1,407 |
2,008 |
2,234 |
||
Investments |
2,139 |
797 |
799 |
799 |
||
Current assets |
|
|
4,129 |
4,650 |
14,113 |
16,816 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
2,188 |
2,110 |
1,665 |
1,775 |
||
Cash |
1,872 |
966 |
10,874 |
13,467 |
||
Other |
69 |
1,574 |
1,574 |
1,574 |
||
Current liabilities |
|
|
(1,303) |
(2,203) |
(1,441) |
(1,441) |
Creditors |
(1,238) |
(1,441) |
(1,441) |
(1,441) |
||
Short-term borrowings |
(65) |
(762) |
0 |
0 |
||
Long-term liabilities |
|
|
(3,057) |
(4,554) |
(6,756) |
(8,756) |
Long-term borrowings |
(3,057) |
(4,550) |
(6,750) |
(8,750) |
||
Other long-term liabilities |
0 |
(4) |
(6) |
(6) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
2,602 |
196 |
8,796 |
9,698 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating cash flow |
|
|
(5,499) |
(8,453) |
(6,909) |
(7,340) |
Net Interest |
122 |
(37) |
144 |
449 |
||
Tax |
1,960 |
1,374 |
1,780 |
2,550 |
||
Capex |
(375) |
(1,338) |
(1,500) |
(1,500) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
3,779 |
1,307 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
768 |
4,051 |
14,956 |
6,433 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net cash flow |
755 |
(3,096) |
8,470 |
593 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
2,005 |
1,250 |
4,346 |
(4,124) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
1,250 |
4,346 |
(4,124) |
(4,717) |
|
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research |
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