Kefi Minerals — Counting down to production

Metals & Mining

KEFI Minerals

Counting down to production

Tulu Kapi update

Metals & mining

30 October 2018

Price	2p
Market cap	£10m
US$1.2760/£
Net cash (£m) at 30 June 2018		0.5

Shares in issue	552.7m
Free float	94.8%
Code	KEFI

Primary exchange	AIM
Secondary exchange	N/A

Share price performance

%	1m	3m	12m
Abs	(19.9)	(31.3)	(61.0)
Rel (local)	(16.1)	(24.9)	(58.4)

52-week high/low

10.9p

4.1p

Business description

KEFI Minerals is an exploration and development company focused on gold and copper deposits in the highly prospective Arabian-Nubian Shield, principally the 95%-owned Tulu Kapi project in Ethiopia and, to a lesser extent, the 40%-owned Jibal Qutman project in Saudi Arabia.

Next events

Execution of infrastructure bonds	Q418
Community resettlement	Q119
Engineering and procurement	Q119
Construction start	H119

Analyst

Charles Gibson

+44 (0)20 3077 5724

mining@edisongroup.com

Edison profile page

KEFI Minerals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Since our last note, KEFI has: 1) raised £5.5m (US$7.4m) in equity; 2) signed a binding agreement with a consortium of Ethiopian investors for US$30m of new equity into Tulu Kapi at the project level; 3) received key approvals from the government; 4) announced that the local, zonal and regional authorities have confirmed their intention to trigger resettlement of the Tulu Kapi community as soon as possible; and 5) that field preparations have commenced – all of which are very much in line with our prior expectations. Today, KEFI also announced the arrangement of a loan facility as an expansion of its working capital arrangements. This is all part of the company continuing to target project construction starting in early 2019 and commissioning and first gold in H220.

Year end	Revenue (£m)	PBT* (£m)	EPS* (p)	DPS (p)	P/E (x)	Yield (%)
12/16	0.0	(2.5)	(1.6)	0.0	N/A	N/A
12/17	0.0	(3.6)	(1.2)	0.0	N/A	N/A
12/18e	0.0	(3.8)	(0.9)	0.0	N/A	N/A
12/19e	0.0	(10.7)	(1.0)	0.0	N/A	N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Outstanding matters

All major policy matters relating to the project have now been resolved and, after the approvals already received from the government of Ethiopia, all of the remaining government consents required are essentially merely administrative matters. Otherwise, subject to normal conditions precedent, KEFI appears to have set out a plan that sets up full development funding at the project level. This involves Ausdrill funding over US$50m of mining equipment, Ethiopian partners funding over US$50m of equity and secure finance some US$160m. The finance arrangements to be concluded prior to start-up of the project are now: 1) the execution of US$160m of listed senior secured infrastructure bonds for development funding; and 2) a working capital line for start-up of production via a stockpile financing facility up to US$20m needs to be installed within the next 18 months, prior to mining commencing. Also, potentially, working capital during development needs to be continually protected by mezzanine finance such as the just announced working capital loan facility or a streaming deal, if required.

Valuation: 6.55p/sh in FY18 rising to 7.21p/sh in FY19

Once developed, we calculate that Tulu Kapi is capable of generating free cash flow of c £41.7m a year for seven years, from FY21-27, and paying average (maximum potential) dividends of 2.15p/share for the six years from FY23-28, which we value at 6.55p/share (at a 10% discount rate) or 7.21p/sh in FY19, rising to 10.56p/sh in FY23, when we estimate that the first potential dividend could be paid. Stated alternatively, we estimate that an investment in KEFI shares now at a price of 1.75p could generate an internal rate of return to investors of 39.2% over the 12 years to 2029 in sterling terms. Note that, if KEFI is successfully able to leverage its cash flow from the mine into its other assets in the region, then we estimate that a valuation of 13.30p is achievable.

Investment summary

Since we published our Outlook note in May, KEFI has:

■

Raised £5.5m (gross) via the issue of 220m shares at 2.5p in two tranches in June and July.

■

Signed a binding Project Equity Investment Agreement with the ANS Mining Share Company (ANS) – the vehicle of a consortium of Ethiopian investors – such that ANS will subscribe for US$30m of new equity capital into Tulu Kapi Gold Mines (TKGM) in return for a 23% interest in the project.

■

Received key development and financing policy approvals for Tulu Kapi from the Ethiopian government.

■

Announced that the local, zonal and regional authorities in Ethiopia have confirmed their intention to trigger resettlement of the Tulu Kapi community as soon as possible, with an agreed target date of 1 January 2019 for implementation of the statutory 90-day resettlement of households.

■

Announced a proposed working capital loan facility to expand working capital at the parent company pending funds flowing into the project company from all of the development funding.

Financing

Equity

In June and July KEFI raised £5.5m (gross) via the issue of 220m shares at 2.5p in two tranches. Excluding estimated pre-commitments from Lanstead at the time of £0.6m, gross proceeds of £5.5m compares with Edison’s May expectation of a future equity raise of £5.0m at the then prevailing share price of 2.795p and forex rate of US$1.3731/£, ie to all intents and purposes, concluding KEFI’s parent level equity finance requirements. While the listed parent has funded all exploration, project planning and permitting, it appears to be successfully assembling all the development capital for the project at the project company level.

ANS project-level investment into Tulu Kapi

On 28 September, KEFI announced that it had signed a binding agreement with ANS for a minimum US$30m investment into the Tulu Kapi project in return for a 23% interest in TKGM. The agreement also gives ANS the flexibility to invest further funds up to US$38m in total to increase its interest up to 29% with the proviso that its shareholding, when aggregated with that of the Ethiopian government (c 25%) does not exceed 49.9% - thus ensuring that KEFI remains the majority shareholder in TKGM.

ANS’s subscription is in two parts:

■

The first instalment of US$9m is to be subscribed in December in return for a 7% shareholding in TKGM following receipt of 1) government administrative approvals (including the government waiving its pre-emption rights on any share issues by TKGM); and 2) reasonable assurances (ie indicative term sheets) of the full funding proceeding from the secured financing partners. Note that the disbursement of these funds by TKGM does not need to await the closing of full funding and may be applied to initial community resettlement compensation etc.

■

The second instalment of US$21-29m is to be subscribed to TKGM at, or before, the full financial close of all development funding, which is targeted upon completion of the first community resettlements in early 2019.

In return for its investment, ANS will also have the right to appoint two non-executive directors to TKGM’s board.

Remaining financing

In addition to the Ethiopian government’s commitment to fund the building and maintenance of all off‐site infrastructure for the project in accordance with the shareholders’ agreement executed between itself and KEFI in May 2017 therefore, KEFI has now assembled all of the project equity development capital required at the project level. Subject to normal conditions precedent, KEFI’s remaining financing arrangements to be concluded prior to the full development of Tulu Kapi are:

■

The execution of US$160m of listed senior secured infrastructure bonds.

■

A working capital line via a stockpile financing facility up to US$20m.

■

Potential mezzanine finance (eg a streaming deal) in the order US$7.7m.

Note that, for the purpose of Edison’s financial modelling (Exhibit 2 on page 6, below) we assume that these financing initiatives will be successfully concluded in Q418 although, in reality, some of them need not be done then (eg stockpile finance is not required until mining starts in 2020).

Government consents and approvals

Having received project development, social, environmental and operational mining approval in 2015, KEFI has now received Ethiopian central bank approval for the project’s banking arrangements, which complements its approvals of the proposed balances sheet capital ratios and TKGM’s right to hedge the gold price.

Remaining government consents include:

■

The registration of actual, audited historical investment records (most already having been endorsed by the ministry of mines).

■

Registration of the updated project development plan (the 2015 plan having already been approved by the ministry of mines).

■

Approval of the documentation relating to the proposed finance lease structure.

■

Finalised project insurance policies.

■

Receipt of various ancillary local permits that can only be granted upon TKGM taking possession of the project land from all resettled households.

■

Approvals of the underlying security arrangements by Ethiopia’s central bank, the National Bank of Ethiopia.

While these remaining government consents are important, they are all essentially administrative matters and all major policy matters relating to the project have now been resolved.

Community resettlement

Community resettlement is triggered by the Regional Government of Oromia in consultation with TKGM and the local, zonal and regional authorities have now confirmed their intention to KEFI to trigger resettlement of the Tulu Kapi community “as soon as possible” with an agreed target date for the first communities to be resettled during Q119 (its being a statutory 90-day process).

Physical preparations for the resettlement are in the process of being launched, now that the wet season has ended, including the preparation of, and the construction of roads into, the community’s new host lands. During this time, TKGM will also clear new farm lands to assist the community to re-establish its livelihood elsewhere, while the community itself harvests its last crops in Tulu Kapi.

Project timetable

KEFI’s most recent timing guidelines for the development of Tulu Kapi are:

■

Q119: community resettlement in conjunction with detailed engineering and procurement

■

Early 2019: start of construction

■

H220: commissioning

This compares closely with Edison’s prior model, which anticipated capex being expended over FY19, FY20 and FY21, leading to approximately four months’ worth of waste stripping and approximately three months’ worth of ore production and processing in H220.

Valuation

On the assumption that Edison’s timetable is maintained, and converted at the current foreign exchange rate of US$1.2760/£ (cf US$1.3731/£ previously), we calculate that Tulu Kapi is capable of generating free cash flow of c £41.7m a year for seven years, from 2021 to 2027 inclusive (cf £38.6m previously). With average (maximum potential) dividends of 2.15p/share for the six years from 2023 to 2028 inclusive (after deduction of a 46% minority interest), this implies a valuation for KEFI of 6.55p/share when discounted back to FY18 at a rate of 10% per year (cf 6.38p/share previously), rising to 10.56p/share in FY23, when we estimate that the first potential dividend could be paid to shareholders (cf 10.27p/share previously).

Exhibit 1: Edison estimate of life of mine KEFI fully diluted EPS and maximum potential DPS (p/share)

Source: Edison Investment Research

In addition to this 3.6% increase in its valuation, the passage of time means that our valuation of KEFI automatically increases to 7.21p/share at the start of FY19, ie a 312.0% premium to the current share price.

Stated alternatively, we estimate that an investment in KEFI shares now at a price of 1.75p per share could generate an internal rate of return to investors of 39.2% over the 12 years from 2018 to 2029 (inclusive). Note however, that this valuation is based on the projected dividend flow resulting from the execution of the Tulu Kapi project alone and ignores the exploration and development of the pipeline of targets in the KEFI portfolio.

Financials

KEFI had £0.5m in net cash on its balance sheet as at 30 June 2018 after £1.9m in cash outflows from operating activities before working capital and another £1.4m in cash outflows from investing activities (together £3.3m). This cash burn rate compares to £1.7m in operating cash outflows before working capital in H117, £2.0m in H116 (including capex), £3.6m in H115, £6.6m in FY15 and £6.3m in FY14. Since 30 June 2018 however, KEFI will have been in receipt of the residual £3.8m owing to it from its June/July equity financing.

While the principal financing of the Tulu Kapi project is the off-balance sheet infrastructure funding for TKGM, if all funding sources are considered, we forecast a maximum immediate aggregate net debt funding requirement overall for the project of £69.4m (US$88.5m) in FY20 (cf £70.8m, or US$97.2m, previously), which (in Edison’s estimation) equates to an approximately 62:38 net debt:equity ratio at the project level. Note that our estimate of aggregate debt in Exhibit 2 (below) has deliberately incorporated all components at the project level, whether on- or off-balance sheet, and comprises cash, the TKGM bond (US$160m), the ore stockpile facility (US$10-20m) and streaming contingent liability. It also presumes that the balance of Tulu Kapi’s funding requirements is successfully concluded in Q418.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

	£'000s	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018e	2019e	2020e
December		IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS	IFRS
PROFIT & LOSS
Revenue		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	33,153
Cost of Sales		(927)	(2,071)	(1,634)	(2,260)	(3,522)	(3,204)	(2,535)	(25,996)
Gross Profit		(927)	(2,071)	(1,634)	(2,260)	(3,522)	(3,204)	(2,535)	7,157
EBITDA		(927)	(2,071)	(1,634)	(2,260)	(3,522)	(3,204)	(2,535)	7,157
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)		(927)	(2,189)	(1,724)	(2,315)	(3,546)	(3,210)	(2,541)	7,151
Intangible Amortisation		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Exceptionals		(442)	(379)	(428)	1,944	(2,359)	(91)	0	0
Other		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Operating Profit		(1,369)	(2,568)	(2,152)	(371)	(5,905)	(3,301)	(2,541)	7,151
Net Interest		4	(413)	(319)	(136)	(75)	(589)	(8,201)	(10,681)
Profit Before Tax (norm)		(923)	(2,602)	(2,043)	(2,451)	(3,621)	(3,799)	(10,742)	(3,530)
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)		(1,365)	(2,981)	(2,471)	(507)	(5,980)	(3,890)	(10,742)	(3,530)
Tax		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Profit After Tax (norm)		(923)	(2,602)	(2,043)	(2,451)	(3,621)	(3,799)	(10,742)	(3,530)
Profit After Tax (FRS 3)		(1,365)	(2,981)	(2,471)	(507)	(5,980)	(3,890)	(10,742)	(3,530)

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)		29.0	56.0	92.8	194.9	315.3	442.7	552.7	552.7
EPS - normalised (p)		(7.4)	(6.2)	(3.0)	(1.6)	(1.2)	(0.9)	(1.0)	(0.3)
EPS - normalised and fully diluted (p)		(7.4)	(6.2)	(3.0)	(1.5)	(1.1)	(0.8)	(1.0)	(0.3)
EPS - (IFRS) (p)		(4.7)	(5.1)	(2.7)	(0.3)	(1.9)	(0.9)	(1.0)	(0.3)
Dividend per share (p)		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Gross Margin (%)		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBITDA Margin (%)		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)		-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

BALANCE SHEET
Fixed Assets		7,152	9,299	11,926	14,053	16,275	18,835	29,754	110,123
Intangible Assets		6,900	9,139	11,845	13,992	16,232	18,518	18,518	18,518
Tangible Assets		252	160	81	61	43	41	10,960	91,329
Investments		0	0	0	0	0	276	276	276
Current Assets		4,014	1,061	1,012	3,561	1,047	164,573	156,752	85,243
Stocks		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1,381
Debtors		655	335	358	3,056	94	258	0	182
Cash		3,279	640	562	410	466	163,828	156,265	83,193
Other		80	86	92	95	487	487	487	487
Current Liabilities		(3,363)	(3,202)	(1,995)	(2,067)	(2,852)	(2,852)	0	(1,928)
Creditors		(3,363)	(3,202)	(1,995)	(2,067)	(2,852)	(2,852)	0	(1,928)
Short term borrowings		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Long Term Liabilities		0	0	0	0	0	(125,392)	(142,085)	(152,546)
Long term borrowings		0	0	0	0	0	(125,392)	(136,050)	(147,614)
Other long term liabilities		0	0	0	0	0	0	(6,034)	(4,932)
Net Assets		7,803	7,158	10,943	15,547	14,470	55,164	44,422	40,891

CASH FLOW
Operating Cash Flow		(1,424)	(2,006)	(2,729)	(2,211)	(51)	(3,380)	(5,129)	7,523
Net Interest		4	(413)	(319)	(136)	(75)	(589)	(8,201)	(10,681)
Tax		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Capex		(877)	(3,133)	(3,507)	(3,014)	(2,625)	(2,776)	(10,926)	(80,375)
Acquisitions/disposals		(1,083)	(750)	0	16	0	0	0	0
Financing		4,735	3,663	6,480	5,192	2,807	44,715	0	0
Dividends		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Net Cash Flow		1,355	(2,639)	(75)	(153)	56	37,970	(24,256)	(83,534)
Opening net debt/(cash)		(1,924)	(3,279)	(640)	(562)	(410)	(466)	(38,436)	(14,180)
HP finance leases initiated		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Other		0	0	(3)	1	0	0	0	0
Closing net debt/(cash)		(3,279)	(640)	(562)	(410)	(466)	(38,436)	(14,180)	69,354

Source: Company sources, Edison Investment Research

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London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

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United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

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Level 4, Office 1205

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