Delays in closing contracts in the core business resulted in a revenue shortfall for eServGlobal in FY17, although some of these have now been signed and will contribute from FY18. Continued efforts to reduce the cost base should reduce the break-even revenue level to c €12.5m/A$19min FY18, which the company is aiming to achieve through focusing on additional sales to its existing customer base. eServGlobal participated in the recent HomeSend funding round, marginally increasing its stake to 35.7%.
eServGlobal |
Core business update |
Trading update |
Software & comp services |
26 January 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
eServGlobal is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Delays in closing contracts in the core business resulted in a revenue shortfall for eServGlobal in FY17, although some of these have now been signed and will contribute from FY18. Continued efforts to reduce the cost base should reduce the break-even revenue level to c €12.5m/A$19min FY18, which the company is aiming to achieve through focusing on additional sales to its existing customer base. eServGlobal participated in the recent HomeSend funding round, marginally increasing its stake to 35.7%.
Year end |
Revenue (A$m) |
EBITDA* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
10/15 |
25.9 |
(10.4) |
(5.41) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
10/16 |
21.6 |
(7.0) |
(3.88) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
10/17 |
10.8 |
(11.7) |
(3.53) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
12/17e** |
12.2 |
(13.1) |
(3.77) |
0.0 |
N/A |
N/A |
Note: *EBITDA and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **14-month period.
Delayed contract signings hit FY17 revenues
eServGlobal expects to report FY17 (14 months to 31 December 2017) revenues of €8.3-8.5m/A$12.1-12.4m, below its guidance range of €9.7-11m. This was due to some of the contracts expected to sign in Q417 actually being signed in January. These contracts are worth €3m/A$4.6m over three years. The company is making progress in cutting its cost base: it expects to enter FY18 with an annualised cost base of €12.8m/A$19.6m and hopes to reduce this to €12-12.5m/A$18.4-19.1m through the course of the year.
Changes to forecasts
We have reflected the results for the 12 months to 31 October 2017 (12M17) as well as the trading update for FY17. We have reduced our revenue forecast for FY17 from A$15.2m to A$12.2m and increased our adjusted EBITDA loss forecast from A$7.6m to A$13.1m. We forecast a net cash position of A$9.7m at the end of FY17, which takes into account the €3.89m recently invested in HomeSend.
Valuation: Reflects HomeSend opportunity
Since the HomeSend update and the fund-raising in October, the share price has traded in the range of 10.25-13.15p. With funding concerns removed, we believe the market is now starting to factor the banking opportunity into the valuation of eServGlobal’s stake in HomeSend. Evidence of progress in the banking sector for HomeSend (new agreements as well as recently signed banks transitioning volumes to the platform) and pipeline conversion in the core business could support further upside to the share price. Conversely, weaker performance in the core business or slower execution for HomeSend could weigh on the share price.
Review of trading in 12M17 and FY17
The company has changed its year-end to 31 December and will report results for FY17 (the 14 months to 31 December 2017) by the end of February. In its trading update on 24 January, eServGlobal confirmed that revenue for FY17 came in below the guidance range of €9.7-11m and is likely to be in the range €8.3-8.5m. This implies that revenues in November and December 2017 totalled €0.9-1.1m. The company noted that the shortfall was due to delays in signing certain orders – agreements worth €3m in revenue were signed in January. The revenue on these contracts is expected to be recognised over three years. The company continues to focus on selling to its existing customer base, and has other active opportunities in the pipeline.
The company confirmed that, as planned, it had used some of the proceeds of the recent fund-raise to reduce the cost base further, achieving annualised cost savings of c €2m in H217. The company expects to enter FY18 with an adjusted like-for-like cost base of c €12.8m and hopes to reduce this to €12-12.5m by the end of FY18. As stated before, the company believes it can achieve revenues around this level through €2m in deferred revenue, €5m in recurring revenue and €5m from changes and upgrades from existing customers. If PLC and corporate costs are excluded, the cost base would reduce to €9.5-10.5m – on €12m revenues, this would imply EBITDA margins in the range of 12.5-20.8%.
Review of results for 12 months ended 31 October 2017
eServGlobal recently published results for the 12 months to 31 October 2017 (12M17). It reported 12M17 revenues of A$10.8m (H1: A$5.9m, H2: A$4.9m). The company wrote down A$3.7m of work-in-progress (H1: A$1.5m, H2: A$2.2m), which resulted in a negative gross margin for the period. Excluding the write-offs, the gross margin would have been 9.0%. Provisions totalling A$4.2m were taken against receivables (H1: A$2.8m, H2: A$1.4m). Stripping out these costs, as well as FX and other exceptional items, the company reported an EBITDA loss of A$11.7m. Administrative costs, pre-exceptionals and depreciation and amortisation have reduced from A$14.5m in FY16 to A$12.7m in 12M17.
After receiving the majority of the proceeds of the fund-raise in October, the company closed 12M17 with a net cash balance of A$14.2m. The remainder of the fund-raise (the retail portion – c A$5.4m) was received in November. Part of the proceeds of the fund-raise were targeted at further restructuring and we expect to see the administrative cost base reduce further.
Exhibit 1: Results highlights
A$'000 |
FY17e |
FY17a |
Difference |
Y-o-y |
Revenues |
12,890 |
10,791 |
(16.3%) |
(50.0%) |
Gross profit |
1,462 |
(2,718) |
(285.9%) |
(144.7%) |
Gross margin |
11.3% |
-25.2% |
(36.5%) |
(53.4%) |
Normalised EBITDA |
(8,181) |
(11,709) |
43.1% |
67.7% |
Normalised EBITDA margin |
(63.5%) |
(108.5%) |
(45.0%) |
(76.1%) |
Normalised EBIT |
(11,571) |
(15,391) |
33.0% |
(53.3%) |
Normalised EBIT margin |
(89.8%) |
(142.6%) |
(52.9%) |
(96.1%) |
Reported EBIT |
(15,731) |
(23,456) |
49.1% |
(149.7%) |
Normalised PBT |
(17,225) |
(22,171) |
28.7% |
(26.4%) |
Reported PBT |
(21,385) |
(30,236) |
41.4% |
(43.0%) |
Normalised net income* |
(13,980) |
(22,617) |
61.8% |
(59.0%) |
Reported net income* |
(21,685) |
(30,840) |
42.2% |
(40.6%) |
Normalised EPS |
(2.18) |
(3.53) |
61.8% |
9.0% |
Net debt/(cash) |
(17,175) |
(14,180) |
(17.4%) |
(694.8%) |
Source: eServGlobal, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Net income after minorities.
Exhibit 2: Adjusted financials
A$m |
FY16 |
12M17 |
y-o-y |
Gross profit |
6.09 |
(2.72) |
(144.7%) |
Gross margin |
28.2% |
(25.2%) |
(53.4%) |
Normalised gross profit |
7.49 |
0.97 |
(87.1%) |
Normalised gross margin |
34.7% |
9.0% |
(25.7%) |
Normalised EBITDA |
(6.98) |
(11.71) |
40.4% |
Normalised EBITDA margin |
(32.4%) |
(108.5%) |
(76.1%) |
Total costs excl D&A, FX & exceptionals |
28.56 |
22.50 |
(21.2%) |
Admin costs excl D&A, FX & exceptionals |
14.47 |
12.68 |
(12.4%) |
Source: eServGlobal, Edison Investment Research
Recent investment round for HomeSend
HomeSend had another funding round in December 2017. A total of €10m was invested: BICS decided not to participate in this round, Mastercard invested €6.11m and eServGlobal €3.89m. This has resulted in a change in joint venture ownership as follows: Mastercard from 55% to 56.09%, eServGlobal from 35% to 35.69% and BICS from 10% to 8.21%. Proceeds are expected to be used for working capital and to accelerate the development of additional functionality to meet the JV’s medium and long-term aims.
Outlook and changes to forecasts
Based on the 12M17 results and the FY17 trading update, we have revised our forecasts:
■
We have reduced our FY17 revenue forecast from A$15.2m to A$12.2m.
■
This reduces our underlying gross profit forecast from A$3.9m to A$1.5m and our reported gross margin forecast from A$2.4m to -A$2.2m.
■
We forecast an EBITDA loss of A$13.1m, which implies underlying operating costs of A$14.6m/€9.9m for FY17.
■
We have factored in the A$7.8m in WIP and accounts receivable write-downs.
■
Our net cash forecast now takes into account the €3.89m invested in HomeSend.
Exhibit 3: Changes to forecasts
A$'000 |
14 months to end CY17 |
Change |
|
Old |
New |
||
Revenues |
15,233 |
12,159 |
(20.2%) |
Gross profit |
2,400 |
(2,171) |
(190.5%) |
Gross margin |
15.8% |
(17.9%) |
(33.6%) |
Normalised gross profit |
3,909 |
1,515 |
(61.2%) |
Normalised gross margin |
25.7% |
12.5% |
(13.2%) |
Normalised EBITDA |
(7,582) |
(13,101) |
72.8% |
Normalised EBITDA margin |
(49.8%) |
(107.7%) |
(58.0%) |
Normalised EBIT |
(11,537) |
(17,397) |
50.8% |
Normalised EBIT margin |
(75.7%) |
(143.1%) |
(67.3%) |
Reported EBIT |
(15,730) |
(25,486) |
62.0% |
Normalised PBT |
(17,846) |
(25,031) |
40.3% |
Reported PBT |
(22,040) |
(33,119) |
50.3% |
Normalised net income* |
(14,510) |
(25,492) |
75.7% |
Reported net income* |
(22,373) |
(33,725) |
50.7% |
Normalised EPS |
(2.15) |
(3.77) |
75.7% |
Net debt/(cash) |
(22,727) |
(9,690) |
(57.4%) |
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Net profit after minorities.
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
A$'000s |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2017e* |
||
Year end 31 October |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
28,070 |
31,003 |
31,261 |
25,866 |
21,577 |
10,791 |
12,159 |
Cost of Sales |
(12,267) |
(11,789) |
(13,359) |
(20,608) |
(15,490) |
(13,509) |
(14,330) |
||
Gross Profit |
15,803 |
19,214 |
17,902 |
5,258 |
6,087 |
(2,718) |
(2,171) |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
(1,936) |
1,683 |
2,571 |
(10,449) |
(6,982) |
(11,709) |
(13,101) |
Operating Profit (before amort acq intang, SBP and except.) |
(7,277) |
(660) |
1,987 |
(12,469) |
(10,039) |
(15,391) |
(17,397) |
||
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
(6,485) |
5,997 |
28,735 |
(12,539) |
(3,533) |
(7,905) |
(7,905) |
||
Share-based payments |
(624) |
(456) |
(438) |
(54) |
(75) |
(160) |
(184) |
||
Operating Profit |
(14,386) |
4,881 |
30,284 |
(25,062) |
(13,647) |
(23,456) |
(25,486) |
||
Income from associate |
0 |
0 |
(2,275) |
(3,831) |
(4,638) |
(4,478) |
(5,332) |
||
Net Interest |
(1,016) |
(386) |
(254) |
(1,356) |
(2,861) |
(2,302) |
(2,302) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
(8,293) |
(1,046) |
(542) |
(17,656) |
(17,538) |
(22,171) |
(25,031) |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
(15,402) |
4,495 |
27,755 |
(30,249) |
(21,146) |
(30,236) |
(33,119) |
Tax |
(187) |
5,879 |
(13,515) |
(2,125) |
(596) |
(592) |
(592) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
(5,805) |
(732) |
(379) |
(14,125) |
(14,030) |
(22,605) |
(25,478) |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS3) |
(15,589) |
10,374 |
14,240 |
(32,374) |
(21,742) |
(30,828) |
(33,711) |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
196.8 |
241.1 |
253.1 |
264.0 |
366.6 |
640.2 |
676.4 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
(3.01) |
(0.36) |
(0.20) |
(5.41) |
(3.88) |
(3.53) |
(3.77) |
EPS - FRS 3 (c) |
|
|
(7.98) |
4.25 |
5.57 |
(12.33) |
(5.98) |
(4.82) |
(4.99) |
DPS (c) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
56.3% |
62.0% |
57.3% |
20.3% |
28.2% |
(25.2%) |
(17.9%) |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
(6.9%) |
5.4% |
8.2% |
(40.4%) |
(32.4%) |
(108.5%) |
(107.7%) |
||
Operating Margin (before am and except.) (%) |
(25.9%) |
(2.1%) |
6.4% |
(48.2%) |
(46.5%) |
(142.6%) |
(143.1%) |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
16,303 |
14,330 |
43,431 |
42,928 |
33,274 |
27,567 |
32,279 |
Intangible Assets |
9,386 |
3,523 |
9,011 |
6,939 |
5,598 |
4,411 |
4,010 |
||
Tangible Assets |
912 |
482 |
3 |
84 |
32 |
136 |
66 |
||
Other Fixed Assets |
6,005 |
10,325 |
34,417 |
35,905 |
27,644 |
23,020 |
28,202 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
18,136 |
38,855 |
30,761 |
34,895 |
28,240 |
40,361 |
18,254 |
Stock |
|
|
158 |
74 |
173 |
66 |
72 |
110 |
110 |
Debtors |
|
|
14,094 |
21,846 |
26,811 |
24,403 |
17,976 |
6,870 |
8,328 |
Cash |
|
|
3,794 |
4,909 |
3,679 |
4,976 |
9,375 |
33,255 |
9,690 |
Other |
|
|
90 |
12,026 |
98 |
5,450 |
817 |
126 |
126 |
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(12,934) |
(15,082) |
(18,033) |
(25,520) |
(14,469) |
(11,812) |
(12,312) |
Creditors |
(11,665) |
(11,932) |
(13,010) |
(22,285) |
(14,189) |
(11,812) |
(12,312) |
||
Taxation & social security |
(69) |
(150) |
(2,023) |
(235) |
(280) |
0 |
0 |
||
Short term borrowings |
(1,200) |
(3,000) |
(3,000) |
(3,000) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(6,431) |
(749) |
(865) |
(19,532) |
(12,649) |
(20,392) |
(1,317) |
Long term borrowings |
(6,000) |
0 |
0 |
(16,531) |
(11,759) |
(19,075) |
0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(431) |
(749) |
(865) |
(3,001) |
(890) |
(1,317) |
(1,317) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
14,989 |
37,154 |
55,070 |
32,359 |
33,823 |
35,718 |
36,896 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
(11,901) |
(7,207) |
(5,810) |
(12,130) |
(10,712) |
(9,492) |
(13,273) |
Net Interest |
(974) |
(580) |
(271) |
(423) |
(175) |
0 |
0 |
||
Tax |
(7,813) |
(1,088) |
2,018 |
(3,148) |
(1,159) |
(719) |
(839) |
||
Capex |
(1,966) |
(1,950) |
(6,403) |
(2,921) |
(1,583) |
(2,351) |
(2,743) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
23,307 |
0 |
5,418 |
0 |
5,133 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
(77) |
16,140 |
3,964 |
4,365 |
15,929 |
32,007 |
31,810 |
||
Dividends |
(111) |
0 |
(146) |
0 |
0 |
(579) |
(579) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
465 |
5,315 |
(1,230) |
(14,257) |
7,433 |
18,866 |
14,376 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
3,871 |
3,406 |
(1,909) |
(679) |
14,555 |
2,384 |
2,384 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
48 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
977 |
(4,690) |
2,302 |
2,302 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
3,406 |
(1,909) |
(679) |
14,555 |
2,384 |
(14,180) |
(9,690) |
Source: eServGlobal, Edison Investment Research. Note: *14-month period ended 31 December 2017.
|
|
2017 was a transitional year for SCISYS, with the key Space division flying and ANNOVA’s integration progressing in line with expectations. The attainment of an €18m prime contractor role in H2 is a significant endorsement of SCISYS Space’s proprietary PLENITER software suite, with which SCISYS is targeting the commercial space sector. In August, ANNOVA achieved a key milestone with its BBC contract, which means it is trading ahead of initial management targets. This comes on the back of H1 results, which revealed 6% organic growth across the group and a record half-year order book. Management’s goal to achieve £60m in revenues and double-digit margins within three to five years looks conservative, and we believe the stock looks attractive on c 11x our maintained FY18e EPS.