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Research: Consumer
The FY18 trading update confirms that momentum continues to drive Treatt’s business. Following the exceptional results posted throughout FY17, Treatt witnessed like-for-like revenue growth of 10% in H118, and 9% for FY18, suggesting some deceleration in H2. Growth remains broad-based, with all core categories contributing, and demonstrating that the business is well-placed to capitalise on current trends in the food and beverage space. Management’s outlook and expectations for the year remain unchanged, but we trim our forecasts to reflect gross margin headwinds.
Written by
Treatt |
Consolidating gains |
FY18 trading update |
Food & beverages |
8 October 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Treatt is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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The FY18 trading update confirms that momentum continues to drive Treatt’s business. Following the exceptional results posted throughout FY17, Treatt witnessed like-for-like revenue growth of 10% in H118, and 9% for FY18, suggesting some deceleration in H2. Growth remains broad-based, with all core categories contributing, and demonstrating that the business is well-placed to capitalise on current trends in the food and beverage space. Management’s outlook and expectations for the year remain unchanged, but we trim our forecasts to reflect gross margin headwinds.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
09/16 |
88.0 |
9.6 |
14.3 |
4.4 |
33.6 |
0.9 |
09/17 |
109.6 |
14.0 |
20.4 |
4.8 |
23.5 |
1.0 |
09/18e |
110.5 |
13.8 |
18.4 |
5.0 |
26.0 |
1.0 |
09/19e |
116.1 |
14.2 |
18.9 |
5.3 |
25.4 |
1.1 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Expansion on track
Treatt is simultaneously undergoing two ambitious expansion projects in two main markets: the US and the UK. The expansion of its US site (which will provide more than 80% growth in footprint once complete) is on track and will be fully operational by H119. It will have been completed on time and on budget, which is no mean feat, and reinforces management’s strong track record. The UK relocation plans are also progressing well, although we have updated our forecasts to reflect some expenditure being shifted from FY19 into FY20 as the design phase is not yet complete.
Lower tax rate offset by higher raw materials and FX
The lower tax rate benefit flagged in March has been offset by increased raw material costs and adverse FX movements during the year. Some pricing pressure on new business wins has also resulted in gross margins falling slightly in both H218 and FY18, and increased headcount will weigh on operating margins. On the cash flow front, a large increase in working capital is attributable only in part to timing issues, but also relates to longer payment terms with a number of larger customers. The balance sheet remains extremely well-funded, with a net cash position forecast at end FY18 following the equity fund-raise in November 2018.
Valuation: Fair value of 510p
We value Treatt using a DCF model, which indicates a fair value of 510p (previously 540p). Treatt trades at 25.2x and 17.4x calendar P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples for 2019, broadly in line with its ingredients peer group. We have cut our forecasts to reflect some gross margin pressure, but we believe the business remains in good shape to continue to capitalise on the underlying trends in the food and beverages space and to deliver growth.
Forecast revisions
We detail our key changes to P&L forecasts in Exhibit 1 below. Following the pre-close trading update, our sales forecasts move up by c 1%, in line with the new guidance for FY18. We leave our growth rates unchanged for forecast years, and hence the higher base causes the uplift in sales in the subsequent years. We have cut our gross and operating margin assumptions given the commentary regarding higher raw material costs, adverse FX, and new contract wins at lower margin. We have also made some changes to our net debt assumptions given the greater clarity regarding working capital movements, and the timing of spend on the capital projects. We illustrate these in Exhibit 2 and these affect our PBT and EPS forecasts via the interest charge.
Exhibit 1: Old vs new key P&L forecasts
EPS (p)* |
PBT (£000s)* |
Sales (£000s) |
||||||||
Old |
New |
% change |
Old |
New |
% change |
Old |
New |
% change |
||
2018e |
17.2 |
16.2 |
-5.9% |
13,264 |
12,479 |
-5.9% |
109,301 |
110,545 |
1.1% |
|
2019e |
19.1 |
17.0 |
-10.9% |
14,729 |
13,122 |
-10.9% |
114,766 |
116,073 |
1.1% |
|
2020e |
20.1 |
17.7 |
-11.9% |
15,472 |
13,631 |
-11.9% |
119,357 |
120,715 |
1.1% |
|
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Stated on company normalised basis, which is pre-exceptional but after amortisation of acquired intangibles and share-based payments.
Exhibit 2: Old vs new net cash/(debt) forecasts, £000s
Old |
New |
% change |
|
2018e |
18,283 |
2,158 |
-88.2% |
2019e |
1,377 |
(8,815) |
-740.2% |
2020e |
10,461 |
(11,872) |
-213.5% |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Valuation
We illustrate Treatt’s relative valuation versus its ingredients peer group in Exhibit 3 below. Treatt trades at a discount to its peer group on a P/E basis, and broadly in line on an EV/EBITDA basis. We believe some discount is justified to reflect its small size and because some of its products are relatively ‘upstream’ in the ingredients spectrum, particularly the bulk ingredients that are sold to other ingredients companies.
Exhibit 3: Benchmark valuation
P/E (x) |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
Dividend yield (%) |
||||||
Market cap (m) |
2018 |
2019 |
2018 |
2019 |
2018 |
2019 |
||
Givaudan |
CHF22,281 |
29.1 |
25.8 |
21.0 |
18.5 |
2.5% |
2.7% |
|
IFF |
$12,516 |
22.1 |
21.5 |
18.7 |
16.6 |
1.7% |
2.1% |
|
Symrise |
CHF11,818 |
34.4 |
30.3 |
18.5 |
16.6 |
1.2% |
1.3% |
|
Frutarom |
ILS22,774 |
30.6 |
27.8 |
20.1 |
18.2 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
Chr Hansen |
DKK82,592 |
47.8 |
41.6 |
30.7 |
27.2 |
1.6% |
1.9% |
|
Kerry |
€16,466 |
26.6 |
24.2 |
18.7 |
16.8 |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
Ingredion |
$7,346 |
13.8 |
12.9 |
8.1 |
7.5 |
2.3% |
2.4% |
|
Peer group average |
29.2 |
26.3 |
19.4 |
17.3 |
1.3% |
1.5% |
||
Treatt |
£283.1 |
26.6 |
25.9 |
19.7 |
17.8 |
1.0% |
1.1% |
|
Premium/(discount) to peer group (%) |
(9.0%) |
(1.5%) |
1.5% |
2.8% |
(21.9%) |
(26.7%) |
||
Source: Bloomberg (prices as of 4 October 2018). Note: Treatt figures are calendarised to aid comparison.
Our DCF-derived fair value falls from 540p to 510p due to our cuts to forecasts detailed above. Our longer-term sales growth forecast remains at 5.0% pa, falling to 2% growth in perpetuity. Our DCF is calculated based on a WACC of 6.8% (encompassing a beta of 0.8, an equity risk premium of 5.0% and a borrowing spread of 5.0%) and a terminal growth rate of 2%.
Exhibit 4: Financial summary
£000's |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
||
Year end September |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
85,934 |
88,040 |
109,627 |
110,545 |
116,073 |
120,715 |
Cost of Sales |
(66,955) |
(67,639) |
(82,819) |
(83,838) |
(88,030) |
(91,431) |
||
Gross Profit |
18,979 |
20,401 |
26,808 |
26,707 |
28,042 |
29,285 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
10,307 |
11,604 |
16,307 |
15,714 |
16,825 |
19,141 |
Operating Profit (before amort., except and sbp.) |
|
|
9,063 |
10,257 |
14,908 |
13,871 |
14,269 |
14,952 |
Intangible Amortisation |
(175) |
(142) |
(137) |
(160) |
(160) |
(160) |
||
Share based payments |
(198) |
(566) |
(966) |
(1,131) |
(899) |
(934) |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
8,690 |
9,549 |
13,805 |
12,580 |
13,209 |
13,858 |
||
Net Interest |
(740) |
(703) |
(913) |
(101) |
(87) |
(227) |
||
Exceptionals |
(174) |
(553) |
0 |
3,000 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
8,323 |
9,554 |
13,995 |
13,771 |
14,182 |
14,726 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
7,776 |
8,293 |
12,892 |
15,479 |
13,122 |
13,631 |
Profit Before Tax (company) |
|
|
7,950 |
8,846 |
12,892 |
12,479 |
13,122 |
13,631 |
Tax |
(1,786) |
(2,144) |
(3,347) |
(3,182) |
(3,346) |
(3,476) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
6,537 |
7,410 |
10,648 |
10,589 |
10,836 |
11,250 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
5,990 |
6,149 |
9,545 |
12,297 |
9,776 |
10,155 |
||
Discontinued operations |
700 |
|||||||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
51.5 |
51.9 |
52.2 |
57.4 |
57.4 |
57.4 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
12.7 |
14.3 |
20.4 |
18.4 |
18.9 |
19.6 |
EPS - normalised & fully diluted (p) |
|
|
12.6 |
14.1 |
19.8 |
17.9 |
18.3 |
19.0 |
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
|
11.6 |
11.8 |
18.3 |
21.4 |
17.0 |
17.7 |
Dividend per share (p) |
4.0 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
5.5 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
22.1 |
23.2 |
24.5 |
24.2 |
24.2 |
24.3 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
12.0 |
13.2 |
14.9 |
14.2 |
14.5 |
15.9 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
10.5 |
11.7 |
13.6 |
12.5 |
12.3 |
12.4 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
13,381 |
16,161 |
19,532 |
31,188 |
47,632 |
56,094 |
Intangible Assets |
1,736 |
3,364 |
3,331 |
3,171 |
3,011 |
2,851 |
||
Tangible Assets |
10,998 |
11,361 |
14,821 |
26,637 |
43,241 |
51,863 |
||
Investments |
647 |
1,436 |
1,380 |
1,380 |
1,380 |
1,380 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
45,045 |
54,435 |
68,230 |
76,969 |
80,116 |
82,648 |
Stocks |
25,799 |
29,990 |
42,878 |
45,448 |
47,488 |
49,146 |
||
Debtors |
17,635 |
17,853 |
19,973 |
26,773 |
27,880 |
28,753 |
||
Cash |
1,477 |
6,588 |
4,748 |
4,748 |
4,748 |
4,748 |
||
Other |
134 |
4 |
631 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(13,481) |
(16,388) |
(27,003) |
(18,570) |
(25,798) |
(27,903) |
Creditors |
(12,675) |
(15,834) |
(19,266) |
(16,843) |
(16,757) |
(16,823) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(567) |
(487) |
(7,680) |
(1,727) |
(9,042) |
(11,080) |
||
Provisions |
(239) |
(67) |
(57) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(11,760) |
(17,021) |
(14,281) |
(8,248) |
(11,706) |
(12,525) |
Long term borrowings |
(7,065) |
(7,755) |
(7,293) |
(863) |
(4,521) |
(5,540) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(4,695) |
(9,266) |
(6,988) |
(7,385) |
(7,185) |
(6,985) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
33,185 |
37,187 |
46,478 |
81,339 |
90,244 |
98,314 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
8,667 |
10,804 |
4,683 |
8,171 |
13,392 |
16,476 |
Net Interest |
(740) |
(703) |
(913) |
(101) |
(87) |
(227) |
||
Tax |
(1,469) |
(2,022) |
(2,822) |
(3,182) |
(3,346) |
(3,476) |
||
Capex |
(924) |
(679) |
(5,111) |
(20,658) |
(19,161) |
(12,811) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(103) |
(861) |
(1,667) |
9,900 |
1,100 |
0 |
||
Financing |
147 |
280 |
270 |
20,759 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(1,978) |
(2,095) |
(3,025) |
(2,506) |
(2,871) |
(3,019) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
3,600 |
4,724 |
(8,585) |
12,383 |
(10,973) |
(3,057) |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
9,584 |
6,155 |
1,654 |
10,225 |
(2,158) |
8,815 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(171) |
(223) |
14 |
0 |
0 |
(0) |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
6,155 |
1,654 |
10,225 |
(2,158) |
8,815 |
11,872 |
Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research
|
|
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