Last close As at 05/08/2026
CAD172.48
▲ 10.06 (6.19%)
Market capitalisation
CAD78,334m
Research: Metals & Mining
After the bell on 5 December, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) announced that it had entered into a definitive Precious Metals Purchase Agreement (PMPA, or stream) with Allied Gold regarding the Kurmuk gold project in Ethiopia. Under the terms of the stream, WPM will pay US$175m to acquire 6.7% (subject to conditions – see below) of the payable gold produced from Kurmuk at 15% of the spot price of gold until 220koz has been delivered, at which point, the percentage will drop to 4.8%.
Wheaton Precious Metals |
Closing in on 1Moz GEO pa |
Kurmuk stream acquisition |
Metals and mining |
11 December 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analyst
Wheaton Precious Metals is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
After the bell on 5 December, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) announced that it had entered into a definitive Precious Metals Purchase Agreement (PMPA, or stream) with Allied Gold regarding the Kurmuk gold project in Ethiopia. Under the terms of the stream, WPM will pay US$175m to acquire 6.7% (subject to conditions – see below) of the payable gold produced from Kurmuk at 15% of the spot price of gold until 220koz has been delivered, at which point, the percentage will drop to 4.8%.
Year end |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/22 |
1,065.1 |
505.4 |
112 |
60 |
50.4 |
1.0 |
12/23 |
1,016.0 |
533.4 |
118 |
60 |
52.1 |
1.0 |
12/24e |
1,303.9 |
770.2 |
144 |
62 |
42.7 |
1.0 |
12/25e |
1,320.2 |
652.2 |
123 |
65 |
50.0 |
1.1 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items.
Gold equivalent production to hit 914koz in FY30
Production at Kurmuk is expected to begin in H226 and to reach an average of 270koz Au in the first five years of operation and over 240koz annually (of which c 16.1koz pa will be attributable to WPM) over a 10 year mine life (based on reserves) at an all-in sustaining cost of c US$1,000/oz. Including a portion of resources, we forecast that production will extend to FY40 (a 15 year life), at which point the production drop-down to 4.8% will occur. Over the entire period, we forecast that Kurmuk will add c 15.5koz pa to WPM’s production profile, 7.5cps to pre-tax cash flows and 4.2cps to EPS. Discounted at a nominal 9% rate, we value the stream to Wheaton now at US$0.13/share post-tax. We calculate its pre-tax IRR to be a healthy 16.5% (as at 1 January 2025). Consequently, we are forecasting that WPM’s attributable production will grow to 835.1k gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) in FY28 and will average 901.0k GEOs in FY29–33 (cf WPM’s February 2024 guidance of >800k and >850k GEOs, respectively). Finally, we note that WPM has inserted a novel clause into its agreement to incentivise Allied Gold not to over-leverage the project, which will cause the stream percentage to rise by up to 0.55pp to 7.15%.
Valuation: Heading higher with production
We have updated our FY24 forecasts to reflect prevailing metals prices – albeit the effect is negligible (note that, at current metals prices, our FY25 EPS forecast will be US$1.67/share cf our base case (above) of US$1.23/share). Otherwise, post the Kurmuk deal, using a capital asset pricing model-type method, whereby we discount cash flows at a nominal 9% per year, our terminal valuation of WPM has risen by 3.0% to US$58.57 (C$82.83) in FY27, assuming zero subsequent long-term growth in real cash flows (which we think unlikely). If we instead assume 7.4% pa long-term growth in cash flows (ie the average compound annual growth rate in the gold price from 1967 to 2023), our current valuation of WPM in FY24 increases more than twofold to US$139.85/share, or C$197.79/share. As such, at an implied rate of 5.4% per year, WPM’s share price currently appears to be discounting future compound annual average increases in cash flows per share from FY27 only very slightly in excess of the long-term average rate of US dollar inflation of 4.0% from 1967 until 2023.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
$000s |
|
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024e |
2025e |
2026e |
|
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
1,096,224 |
1,201,665 |
1,065,053 |
1,016,045 |
1,303,922 |
1,320,236 |
1,585,134 |
Cost of Sales |
(266,763) |
(287,947) |
(267,621) |
(228,171) |
(237,304) |
(293,841) |
(343,032) |
||
Gross Profit |
829,461 |
913,718 |
797,432 |
787,874 |
1,066,618 |
1,026,395 |
1,242,102 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
763,763 |
852,733 |
735,245 |
719,704 |
998,997 |
958,774 |
1,174,481 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
|
519,874 |
597,940 |
503,293 |
505,270 |
748,478 |
650,931 |
803,763 |
Intangible Amortisation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
4,469 |
162,806 |
164,214 |
4,593 |
(1,113) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
387 |
190 |
7,680 |
33,658 |
27,215 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
524,730 |
760,936 |
675,187 |
543,521 |
774,580 |
650,931 |
803,763 |
||
Net Interest |
(16,715) |
(5,817) |
(5,586) |
(5,510) |
(5,523) |
1,261 |
867 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
503,546 |
592,313 |
505,387 |
533,418 |
770,171 |
652,192 |
804,630 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
508,015 |
755,119 |
669,601 |
538,011 |
769,058 |
652,192 |
804,630 |
Tax |
(211) |
(234) |
(475) |
(367) |
(115,455) |
(92,904) |
(113,066) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
503,335 |
592,079 |
504,912 |
533,051 |
654,716 |
559,288 |
691,564 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
507,804 |
754,885 |
669,126 |
537,644 |
653,603 |
559,288 |
691,564 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
448.7 |
450.1 |
451.6 |
452.8 |
453.5 |
453.6 |
453.6 |
||
EPS - normalised (c) |
|
|
112 |
132 |
112 |
118 |
144 |
123 |
152 |
EPS - normalised and fully diluted (c) |
|
|
112 |
131 |
112 |
118 |
144 |
123 |
152 |
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
113 |
168 |
148 |
119 |
144 |
123 |
152 |
Dividend per share (c) |
42 |
57 |
60 |
60 |
62 |
65 |
68 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
75.7 |
76.0 |
74.9 |
77.5 |
81.8 |
77.7 |
78.4 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
69.7 |
71.0 |
69.0 |
70.8 |
76.6 |
72.6 |
74.1 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
47.4 |
49.8 |
47.3 |
49.7 |
57.4 |
49.3 |
50.7 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
5,755,441 |
6,046,427 |
6,039,813 |
6,463,774 |
6,800,784 |
7,381,373 |
7,871,586 |
Intangible Assets |
5,521,632 |
5,940,538 |
5,753,111 |
6,169,534 |
6,488,048 |
7,068,636 |
7,558,850 |
||
Tangible Assets |
33,931 |
44,412 |
30,607 |
47,562 |
48,351 |
48,351 |
48,351 |
||
Investments |
199,878 |
61,477 |
256,095 |
246,678 |
264,386 |
264,386 |
264,386 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
201,831 |
249,724 |
720,093 |
567,411 |
727,900 |
509,318 |
395,209 |
Stocks |
3,265 |
12,102 |
13,817 |
10,806 |
14,488 |
14,669 |
17,613 |
||
Debtors |
5,883 |
11,577 |
10,187 |
10,078 |
7,145 |
7,234 |
8,686 |
||
Cash |
192,683 |
226,045 |
696,089 |
546,527 |
706,267 |
487,414 |
368,911 |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(31,169) |
(29,691) |
(30,717) |
(26,075) |
(23,995) |
(26,705) |
(29,064) |
Creditors |
(30,396) |
(28,878) |
(29,899) |
(25,471) |
(23,391) |
(26,101) |
(28,460) |
||
Short-term borrowings |
(773) |
(813) |
(818) |
(604) |
(604) |
(604) |
(604) |
||
Long-term liabilities |
|
|
(211,532) |
(16,343) |
(11,514) |
(19,594) |
(134,459) |
(227,363) |
(218,231) |
Long-term borrowings |
(197,864) |
(2,060) |
(1,152) |
(5,625) |
(5,035) |
(5,035) |
(5,035) |
||
Other long-term liabilities |
(13,668) |
(14,283) |
(10,362) |
(13,969) |
(129,424) |
(222,328) |
(213,196) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
5,714,571 |
6,250,117 |
6,717,675 |
6,985,516 |
7,370,231 |
7,636,622 |
8,019,501 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
779,156 |
845,832 |
737,821 |
725,548 |
1,024,564 |
961,214 |
1,172,444 |
Net Interest |
(13,763) |
(187) |
6,227 |
33,770 |
(5,523) |
1,261 |
867 |
||
Tax |
49 |
(279) |
(171) |
(6,192) |
0 |
0 |
(122,197) |
||
Capex |
149,648 |
(404,437) |
(44,750) |
(648,963) |
(588,710) |
(888,432) |
(860,932) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Financing |
22,396 |
7,992 |
10,171 |
12,934 |
12,064 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(167,212) |
(218,052) |
(237,097) |
(265,109) |
(281,140) |
(292,896) |
(308,686) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
770,274 |
230,869 |
472,201 |
(148,012) |
161,255 |
(218,853) |
(118,504) |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
774,766 |
5,954 |
(223,172) |
(694,119) |
(540,298) |
(700,628) |
(481,775) |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(1,462) |
(1,743) |
(1,254) |
(5,809) |
(925) |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
5,954 |
(223,172) |
(694,119) |
(540,298) |
(700,628) |
(481,775) |
(363,272) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: TMT
In H125, discoverIE used its flexible operating model and ongoing efficiency initiatives to drive underlying operating profit growth despite a 5% revenue decline. Customer destocking has abated during H1 and order intake was 7% higher year-on-year and 1% higher on an organic basis. Strong design win activity positions the company for growth as customer demand returns. Management maintained its earnings outlook for FY25 and in addition to improving customer demand, lower interest rates should start to benefit the company from H225. With strong cash generation reducing gearing, we expect further M&A to boost growth and margins.