Brady
Written by
Brady |
In line, focus has been on customer success |
Trading update |
Software & comp services |
17 January 2017 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Brady is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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In a brief trading update, Brady says that trading is in line with market expectations. FY16 saw of a lot of internal change, with a new chairman and COO while the CEO left the group. While commodity markets have seen some improvements, the backdrop remains challenging. The main focus over the last few months has been on improving efficiencies, including a shift away from the old divisions to global functions. We make no major changes to our forecasts and, given the strong balance sheet and scope for recovery, continue to believe the shares look attractive, trading on c 18x our cash-adjusted FY17e earnings.
Year |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
12/14 |
31.0 |
5.1 |
5.3 |
1.9 |
13.3 |
2.7 |
12/15 |
27.4 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
70.5 |
N/A |
12/16e |
30.5 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
1.7 |
20.1 |
2.4 |
12/17e |
32.2 |
4.1 |
3.9 |
1.9 |
18.1 |
2.7 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Trading update
In the brief update, the company said: “The markets in which we operate remain challenging. However, there has been a sea-change in the mood and focus of this business, and as a team, we have entered 2017 with considerable optimism.”
2016 senior management changes
Paul Fullagar stepped down as chairman over the summer after nine years and Ian Jenks was appointed to the role. In early September, it was announced that Gavin Lavelle had stepped down as CEO after nine years and Mr Jenks took on the interim position of executive chairman. In early October, Elizabeth Sipiere joined Brady as a non-executive director. In addition, Ms Sipiere took on the role of chief operating officer until a new CEO is appointed.
New strategy
Last September, Mr Jenks told analysts at the results meeting that he wanted to improve the integration of the group’s various software platforms and ultimately transition the business to a multi-tenanted cloud platform. The new strategy followed an independent review from external consultants. Following the latest restructuring, the group is in lean shape, and the aim now is to improve the way the business operates. Sales teams have been fully adapted to sell the range of solutions and the challenge is shifting to the product level. We expect to hear further details on the group’s evolving strategy following the results in March.
Valuation: Well positioned for commodities recovery
Brady trades on c 18x our maintained cash-adjusted FY17e EPS, 1.6x EV/sales and c 11.1x EV/EBITDA. In our view, the group’s strong balance sheet (£6.4m cash and no debt) and streamlined cost base position Brady well for recovery.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
£000s |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016e |
2017e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
28,136 |
29,355 |
31,015 |
27,374 |
30,527 |
32,170 |
Cost of Sales |
(10,063) |
(11,119) |
(10,977) |
(10,867) |
(10,957) |
(11,547) |
||
Gross Profit |
18,073 |
18,236 |
20,038 |
16,507 |
19,570 |
20,624 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
5,440 |
3,122 |
5,592 |
1,506 |
4,038 |
4,640 |
Adjusted Operating Profit |
|
|
4,924 |
2,470 |
5,019 |
924 |
3,434 |
4,003 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(1,276) |
(1,613) |
(1,613) |
(1,640) |
(1,640) |
(1,640) |
||
Exceptionals items |
(2,563) |
355 |
(2,143) |
(469) |
(251) |
0 |
||
Share based payments |
(345) |
(313) |
(232) |
(243) |
(263) |
(275) |
||
Operating Profit |
740 |
899 |
1,031 |
(1,428) |
1,281 |
2,088 |
||
Net Interest |
64 |
29 |
58 |
31 |
50 |
60 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
4,988 |
2,499 |
5,077 |
955 |
3,484 |
4,063 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
804 |
928 |
1,089 |
(1,397) |
1,331 |
2,148 |
Tax |
(345) |
189 |
(630) |
(329) |
(610) |
(813) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
4,643 |
2,249 |
4,315 |
813 |
2,874 |
3,251 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
459 |
1,117 |
459 |
(1,726) |
721 |
1,336 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
75.6 |
80.9 |
81.3 |
82.7 |
83.2 |
83.6 |
||
EPS – normalised (p) |
|
|
6.1 |
2.8 |
5.3 |
1.0 |
3.5 |
3.9 |
EPS – FRS 3 (p) |
|
|
0.6 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
(2.1) |
0.9 |
1.6 |
Dividend per share (p) |
1.60 |
1.70 |
1.85 |
0.00 |
1.70 |
1.90 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
64.2 |
62.1 |
64.6 |
60.3 |
64.1 |
64.1 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
19.3 |
10.6 |
18.0 |
5.5 |
13.2 |
14.4 |
||
Adjusted Operating Margin (%) |
17.5 |
8.4 |
16.2 |
3.4 |
11.2 |
12.4 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
42,851 |
39,137 |
32,614 |
31,461 |
30,229 |
28,598 |
Intangible Assets |
40,999 |
37,519 |
30,996 |
29,831 |
28,532 |
26,830 |
||
Tangible Assets |
1,158 |
983 |
1,076 |
1,147 |
1,214 |
1,285 |
||
Deferred tax |
694 |
635 |
542 |
483 |
483 |
483 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
16,874 |
15,420 |
16,948 |
13,633 |
14,595 |
16,550 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
9,036 |
8,198 |
7,368 |
7,039 |
7,850 |
8,272 |
||
Cash |
7,838 |
7,222 |
9,580 |
6,594 |
6,745 |
8,277 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(11,401) |
(11,200) |
(10,545) |
(10,804) |
(10,423) |
(10,504) |
Creditors |
(11,401) |
(11,200) |
(10,545) |
(10,804) |
(10,423) |
(10,504) |
||
Short-term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Long-Term Liabilities |
|
|
(6,717) |
(4,467) |
(4,651) |
(4,814) |
(4,814) |
(4,814) |
Long-term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other long-term liabilities |
(6,717) |
(4,467) |
(4,651) |
(4,814) |
(4,814) |
(4,814) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
41,607 |
38,890 |
34,366 |
29,476 |
29,587 |
29,829 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
1,459 |
4,277 |
6,209 |
2,363 |
3,466 |
6,179 |
Net Interest |
64 |
29 |
58 |
31 |
50 |
60 |
||
Tax |
(168) |
(378) |
(420) |
(416) |
(488) |
(650) |
||
Capex |
(2,374) |
(2,442) |
(2,419) |
(2,591) |
(2,312) |
(2,506) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(17,983) |
(751) |
0 |
(1,186) |
(566) |
(66) |
||
Financing |
17,780 |
125 |
338 |
469 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(1,206) |
(1,296) |
(1,378) |
(1,524) |
0 |
(1,485) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(2,428) |
(436) |
2,388 |
(2,854) |
151 |
1,533 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(10,304) |
(7,838) |
(7,222) |
(9,580) |
(6,594) |
(6,745) |
Other |
(38) |
(180) |
(30) |
(132) |
0 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(7,838) |
(7,222) |
(9,580) |
(6,594) |
(6,745) |
(8,277) |
Source: Brady (historicals), Edison Investment Research (forecasts)
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