Last close As at 05/08/2026
EUR1.37
▲ −0.02 (−1.37%)
Market capitalisation
EUR274m
Research: TMT
Verve’s AI-driven, privacy-first advertising solutions are gaining good traction and market share is increasing, with a 33% uplift in the number of larger software clients and 24% more ad impressions served in Q224. Management has issued new full year guidance indicating year-on-year revenue growth of between 24% and 30%, earning an adjusted EBITDA margin of over 30%, reflecting the leverage on a lower fixed cost base. We have adjusted our forecasts accordingly. The acquisition of Jun Group will be included from August 2024. Full H124 figures will be released on 29 August at Verve’s scheduled capital markets day (CMD) in Stockholm.
Verve Group |
Another substantial upgrade |
Increased guidance |
Media |
13 August 2024 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Verve Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Verve’s AI-driven, privacy-first advertising solutions are gaining good traction and market share is increasing, with a 33% uplift in the number of larger software clients and 24% more ad impressions served in Q224. Management has issued new full year guidance indicating year-on-year revenue growth of between 24% and 30%, earning an adjusted EBITDA margin of over 30%, reflecting the leverage on a lower fixed cost base. We have adjusted our forecasts accordingly. The acquisition of Jun Group will be included from August 2024. Full H124 figures will be released on 29 August at Verve’s scheduled capital markets day (CMD) in Stockholm.
Year end |
Revenue |
Adjusted |
PBT* |
EPS* |
EV/EBITDA |
P/E |
12/22 |
324.4 |
93.2 |
38.6 |
13.4 |
9.4 |
20.3 |
12/23 |
322.0 |
95.2 |
26.8 |
35.8 |
9.2 |
7.7 |
12/24e |
410.0 |
130.0 |
54.2 |
22.2 |
6.8 |
12.7 |
12/25e |
505.0 |
181.8 |
118.5 |
42.9 |
5.0 |
7.4 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and sharebased payments.
Headline Q2 numbers show strong progress
Organic revenue growth in Q224 was 26% ahead of prior year (27% including forex benefit), giving a topline of €96.6m for the period. Given the quoted increase in ad impressions, there is some slight sign of improvement in pricing, which may partly reflect mix. The close attention to the cost base has given Verve better operating leverage and the adjusted EBITDA margin of a shade over 30% looks to us to be sustainable. At the time of the FY23 results, guidance was for FY24 revenue of €350–370m (Edison forecast €355m). This was lifted to €380–400m earlier in the summer, with this continued good trading now raising the target window to €400–420m. Our revised number sits at mid-range. Expectations for adjusted EBITDA have similarly been upgraded, from €100–110m to €125m–135m, which represents an increase of 32–42% over the prior year. We maintain our growth expectations into FY25, lifting forecast revenue by 5% and adjusted EBITDA by 7%.
Upcoming CMD should clarify Jun potential
The CMD at the end of this month should give more colour on the Jun acquisition and how the group’s demand-side offering (ie serving advertisers and agencies) is developing. We do not expect Google’s recent change of heart on the final deprecation of cookies to fundamentally shift the drive towards privacy-first, responsible advertising solutions, particularly at the high-quality end of the market.
Valuation: Well below peers, DCF
The share price is up 173% year-to-date, reflecting the strong trading news. However, the rating still sits at a discount to peers and to the value derived in our discounted cash flow (DCF). Looking at peer average EV/revenue and EV/EBITDA multiples across FY24 and FY25, parity now suggests a share price of €4.22, up from €4.10 as calculated in June. Our DCF (weighted average cost of capital 10%, terminal growth of 2%) points to €4.97 (previously €4.64).
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€000s |
2022 |
2023 |
2024e |
2025e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||
Revenue |
|
|
324,444 |
321,981 |
410,000 |
505,000 |
Operating costs excl. D&A |
(239,691) |
(193,523) |
(285,113) |
(332,113) |
||
Adj. EBITDA |
|
|
93,202 |
95,171 |
130,000 |
175,000 |
EBITDA |
|
|
84,753 |
128,458 |
124,887 |
172,887 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
|
76,556 |
76,943 |
110,104 |
151,782 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(14,853) |
(11,229) |
(11,229) |
(11,229) |
||
Exceptionals |
(27,100) |
(6,500) |
(3,500) |
(500) |
||
Share-based payments |
(1,613) |
(1,613) |
(1,613) |
(1,613) |
||
Reported operating profit |
34,886 |
57,601 |
93,763 |
138,441 |
||
Net Interest |
(37,959) |
(50,171) |
(55,939) |
(49,024) |
||
Joint ventures & associates (post tax) |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
38,597 |
26,771 |
54,165 |
102,758 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
(3,073) |
7,430 |
37,824 |
89,417 |
Reported tax |
(9,064) |
(2,718) |
(12,482) |
(29,507) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
21,085 |
57,220 |
36,291 |
68,848 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
(12,137) |
46,113 |
25,342 |
59,909 |
||
Minority interests |
(88) |
(513) |
(520) |
(525) |
||
Discontinued operations |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
20,947 |
56,933 |
36,811 |
69,374 |
||
Net income (reported) |
(12,049) |
46,626 |
25,862 |
60,434 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
156.2 |
159.2 |
166.0 |
186.4 |
||
EPS - basic normalised (c) |
|
|
13.41 |
35.75 |
22.17 |
37.23 |
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
12.01 |
32.08 |
19.98 |
33.91 |
EPS - basic reported (c) |
|
|
(7.71) |
29.28 |
15.58 |
32.43 |
Dividend (c) |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
28.7 |
(0.8) |
27.3 |
23.2 |
||
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%) |
28.7 |
29.6 |
31.7 |
34.7 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin (%) |
23.6 |
23.9 |
26.9 |
30.1 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
823,637 |
813,515 |
960,794 |
1,018,039 |
Intangible Assets |
791,284 |
796,608 |
945,446 |
1,004,250 |
||
Tangible Assets |
5,522 |
3,963 |
2,404 |
845 |
||
Investments & other |
26,831 |
12,944 |
12,944 |
12,944 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
221,022 |
193,514 |
166,745 |
198,960 |
Stocks |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Debtors |
52,229 |
32,281 |
39,315 |
51,192 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
149,992 |
121,740 |
87,937 |
108,276 |
||
Other |
18,801 |
39,493 |
39,493 |
39,493 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
219,471 |
240,768 |
253,081 |
269,519 |
Creditors |
68,711 |
80,335 |
100,241 |
116,679 |
||
Short term borrowings |
31,903 |
34,510 |
58,390 |
58,390 |
||
Other financial liabilities |
97,515 |
104,402 |
74,402 |
74,402 |
||
Other non-financial liabilities |
21,342 |
21,521 |
20,048 |
20,048 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
503,443 |
413,804 |
478,804 |
466,804 |
Long term borrowings |
389,386 |
348,038 |
413,038 |
406,038 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
114,057 |
65,766 |
65,766 |
60,766 |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
321,745 |
352,457 |
395,654 |
480,676 |
Minority interests |
1,211 |
(182) |
(182) |
(182) |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
322,956 |
352,275 |
395,472 |
480,494 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
(12,137) |
46,113 |
25,342 |
59,909 |
||
Depreciation & amortisation |
58,135 |
29,402 |
31,125 |
34,447 |
||
Working capital |
68,140 |
31,572 |
12,872 |
4,562 |
||
Exceptional & other |
(15,611) |
(85,443) |
1,613 |
1,613 |
||
Tax |
6,002 |
2,718 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net finance cost |
37,959 |
50,171 |
55,939 |
49,024 |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
142,488 |
74,533 |
126,890 |
149,554 |
Capex |
(46,007) |
(42,878) |
(38,404) |
(41,691) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(138,000) |
0 |
(130,000) |
(50,000) |
||
Equity financing |
27,900 |
0 |
40,050 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(53,413) |
(52,301) |
(37,439) |
(30,524) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(67,032) |
(20,646) |
(38,903) |
27,339 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
198,600 |
273,900 |
297,427 |
396,237 |
FX |
0 |
(2,881) |
0 |
0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
(8,268) |
0 |
(59,907) |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
273,900 |
297,427 |
396,237 |
368,898 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: TMT
CLIQ Digital’s H124 results were as expected following the July trading update, at which point the company lowered its guidance. The change in the refund policies of credit card providers resulted in revenue falling 12% to €141m, due to higher churn in the customer base. To focus on profitability, CLIQ lowered the cost per acquisition in line with the group’s lower lifetime value of a new customer, resulting in fewer new customer acquisitions. CLIQ is progressing with its Fit for Future transformation programme, seeking productivity gains and cost efficiencies. Management has discontinued the promotion of cliq.de, its first own-brand platform in Germany, aiming to relaunch an own-brand platform in a more favourable geography. We have left our forecasts broadly unchanged following the recent trading update, with a tweaked cash position to reflect the share buyback programme and higher EBITDA to reflect ongoing cost savings.