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On 21 September, Carr’s Group announced that it had completed the acquisition of Animax, a producer of animal health products, for a total cash consideration of up to £8.5m. The transaction will broaden the group’s existing range of animal health products and supplements. We raise our estimates and reiterate our indicative valuation of 178p/share.
Written by
Carr's Group |
Acquisition broadens animal nutrition offer |
Acquisition of Animax |
Basic materials |
1 October 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
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Analyst
Carr's Group is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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On 21 September, Carr’s Group announced that it had completed the acquisition of Animax, a producer of animal health products, for a total cash consideration of up to £8.5m. The transaction will broaden the group’s existing range of animal health products and supplements. We raise our estimates and reiterate our indicative valuation of 178p/share.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
8/16 |
314.9 |
14.2 |
10.8 |
3.8** |
14.2 |
2.5 |
8/17 |
346.2 |
11.9 |
9.4 |
4.0 |
16.3 |
2.6 |
8/18e |
377.4 |
16.6 |
13.1 |
4.3 |
11.7 |
2.8 |
8/19e |
390.3 |
17.2 |
13.6 |
4.5 |
11.3 |
2.9 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. **Excluding 17.54p special dividend.
Boluses complement existing feed block format
Animax has a patented technology for encapsulating the trace elements copper, cobalt, iodine and selenium in boluses that are administered to sheep, cattle and their young. The boluses lodge in the animal’s digestive system, releasing a controlled dosage of the supplement over a six-month period. This is highly complementary to Carr’s feed block format in which trace elements and other supplements are administered via a lick. Post-acquisition, Carr’s will sell Animax’s products through its sales channels across the USA, New Zealand, Europe, the UK and Ireland.
Transaction immediately earnings enhancing
Animax is based in Suffolk. Together with sister company Clinimax, a manufacturer of patented specialist disinfectant products for the medical industry, it generated £0.6m EBITDA for the year ended November 2017. The initial cash consideration payable for the two companies is £6m (excluding £1.2m cash acquired with Animax), with an additional £2.5m cash consideration based on performance payable over the period to November 2020. This is payable from the group’s existing facilities. We revise our estimates (FY19 EPS up 1.9%, FY20 up 3.6%) to reflect management expectations that the transaction will be earnings enhancing in FY19. The initial consideration payable, net of cash acquired, is 8.0x historic EBITDA, slightly less than the historic EV/EBITDA multiple for Carr’s of 9.0x.
Valuation: Trading at a discount to peers
Despite the estimates upgrade, our updated DCF analysis gives an indicative value that remains at 178p because of the cash cost associated with the transaction. At the current share price, Carr’s is trading below its peers with regards to mean P/E (11.7x vs 14.0x) for the year ending August 2018. As discussed in our April note, continued recovery in the US feed block market and further confirmation of the Engineering upturn should help close the valuation gap.
Revisions to estimates
As the acquisition has taken place after the end of FY18, we revise our estimates to reflect the impact of the acquisition from FY19 onwards.
Exhibit 1: Changes to forecast
FY17 |
FY18e |
FY19e |
FY20e |
|||||
Actual |
Unchanged |
Old |
New |
% change |
Old |
New |
% change |
|
Agriculture revenues (£m) |
315.9 |
331.7 |
338.1 |
344.1 |
1.8% |
343.2 |
349.3 |
1.8% |
Agriculture EBITA (£m) |
11.4 |
12.7 |
12.6 |
13.2 |
4.8% |
12.9 |
13.5 |
4.7% |
Engineering revenues (£m) |
30.4 |
45.7 |
46.2 |
46.2 |
0.0% |
47.3 |
47.3 |
0.0% |
Engineering EBITA (£m) |
0.7 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
0.0% |
5.2 |
5.2 |
0.0% |
Group revenues (£m) |
346.2 |
377.4 |
384.3 |
390.3 |
1.6% |
390.5 |
396.6 |
1.6% |
Adjusted PBT (£m) |
11.9 |
16.6 |
16.9 |
17.2 |
1.8% |
17.6 |
18.2 |
3.4% |
EPS (p) |
9.4 |
13.1 |
13.4 |
13.6 |
1.9% |
14.0 |
14.5 |
3.6% |
DPS(p) |
4.0 |
4.3 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
0.0% |
4.7 |
4.7 |
0.0% |
Net (cash)/debt (£m) |
14.1 |
14.4 |
10.0 |
15.1 |
50.7% |
4.7 |
9.3 |
98.9% |
Source: Edison Investment Research
Exhibit 2: Financial summary
£m |
2016 |
2017 |
2018e |
2019e |
2020e |
||
Year-end Aug |
|||||||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
314.9 |
346.2 |
377.4 |
390.3 |
396.6 |
EBITDA |
|
|
16.5 |
13.9 |
19.4 |
20.4 |
21.2 |
Operating Profit (before amort. and except.) |
|
|
12.9 |
9.8 |
14.8 |
15.7 |
16.4 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
(0.2) |
(0.1) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
||
Share-based payments |
0.1 |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
(0.5) |
||
Exceptionals |
0.0 |
(1.3) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Operating Profit |
12.8 |
7.9 |
13.8 |
14.7 |
15.4 |
||
Net Interest |
(0.8) |
(0.7) |
(1.0) |
(1.3) |
(1.0) |
||
Share of post-tax profits in JVs and associates |
2.1 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
14.2 |
11.9 |
16.6 |
17.2 |
18.2 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
14.1 |
10.0 |
15.6 |
16.2 |
17.2 |
Tax |
(2.9) |
(1.7) |
(3.3) |
(3.5) |
(3.7) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
11.2 |
9.9 |
13.3 |
13.7 |
14.5 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
11.2 |
8.3 |
12.3 |
12.7 |
13.5 |
||
Post tax profit (loss) relating to discontinued operations |
2.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Minority interest |
(1.5) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
(1.3) |
||
Net income (norm) |
9.7 |
8.6 |
12.0 |
12.5 |
13.2 |
||
Net income (FRS 3) |
12.5 |
7.0 |
11.0 |
11.5 |
12.2 |
||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
90.1 |
91.4 |
91.4 |
91.4 |
91.4 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
10.8 |
9.4 |
13.1 |
13.6 |
14.5 |
EPS |
|
|
10.4 |
9.4 |
13.0 |
13.5 |
14.4 |
EPS - FRS 3 (p) |
|
|
13.8 |
7.7 |
12.0 |
12.5 |
13.4 |
Dividend per share (p) |
3.8* |
4.0 |
4.3 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
5.2 |
4.0 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
4.1 |
2.8 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
63.1 |
87.9 |
86.6 |
90.0 |
88.4 |
Intangible Assets |
11.7 |
26.5 |
26.4 |
26.6 |
26.5 |
||
Tangible Assets, Deferred tax assets and Pension surplus |
51.4 |
61.4 |
60.2 |
63.3 |
61.9 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
139.1 |
121.1 |
122.7 |
120.5 |
124.2 |
Stocks |
33.4 |
37.0 |
38.5 |
39.0 |
39.5 |
||
Debtors |
57.2 |
60.2 |
63.5 |
64.5 |
65.0 |
||
Cash |
48.4 |
23.9 |
20.7 |
17.0 |
19.7 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(69.0) |
(73.7) |
(71.7) |
(69.2) |
(66.7) |
Creditors including tax, social security and provisions |
(47.3) |
(56.7) |
(57.7) |
(58.2) |
(58.7) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(21.6) |
(17.1) |
(14.1) |
(11.1) |
(8.1) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(23.1) |
(29.4) |
(29.4) |
(29.4) |
(29.4) |
Long term borrowings |
(18.6) |
(21.0) |
(21.0) |
(21.0) |
(21.0) |
||
Retirement benefit obligation |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(4.5) |
(8.4) |
(8.4) |
(8.4) |
(8.4) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
110.1 |
105.9 |
108.1 |
111.8 |
116.6 |
Minority interest |
(13.4) |
(14.4) |
(15.4) |
(16.4) |
(17.4) |
||
Shareholders equity |
|
|
96.7 |
91.5 |
92.7 |
95.4 |
99.1 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
11.7 |
15.1 |
15.6 |
19.4 |
20.7 |
Net Interest |
(0.5) |
(0.7) |
(1.0) |
(1.3) |
(1.0) |
||
Tax |
(1.1) |
(1.2) |
(3.3) |
(3.5) |
(3.7) |
||
Investment activities |
(2.9) |
(1.1) |
(3.8) |
(3.8) |
(3.8) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
22.7 |
(13.2) |
(4.1) |
(8.8) |
(2.3) |
||
Equity financing and other financing activities |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
(3.3) |
(19.5) |
(3.7) |
(3.9) |
(4.1) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
27.5 |
(20.4) |
(0.2) |
(1.9) |
5.8 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
24.4 |
(8.1) |
14.1 |
14.4 |
15.1 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(5.1) |
1.9 |
0.0 |
(1.2) |
0.0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(8.1) |
14.1 |
14.4 |
15.1 |
9.3 |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: *Excluding 17.54p special dividend.
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Brady has undergone a significant transition into a leaner, more focused business. Costs have been taken out and the recycling business sold earlier this year as it did not fit well with the business. The main priorities are delivering on legacy contracts while significant resources are being used to refresh the product, with c 25% of FY18 sales expected to be spent on R&D. Consequently near-term ratings remain elevated. However, the market opportunity is substantial and we believe Brady is well positioned to benefit from the significant sector consolidation.