Last close As at 05/08/2026
EUR3.07
— 0.00 (0.00%)
Market capitalisation
EUR22m
Research: Consumer
bet-at-home (BAH) has started the year very well, with Q119 gross gaming revenues (GGR) increasing by 12.1% y-o-y to €37.2m, and an EBITDA of €12.7m. This is especially encouraging in light of management’s recent guidance of €130–143m GGR (0–10% decline) and an EBITDA of €29–33m for FY19. While this guidance seems conservative, we are leaving our forecasts broadly unchanged until there is further clarity on the impact of the Swiss IP blocking. The stock trades at 13.1x EV/EBITDA and 18.1x P/E for FY19e, which is at the top of the peer group, although its ability to pay high dividends is very attractive.
bet-at-home |
A strong start to the year |
Q119 results |
Travel & leisure |
29 April 2019 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next event
Analysts
bet-at-home is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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bet-at-home (BAH) has started the year very well, with Q119 gross gaming revenues (GGR) increasing by 12.1% y-o-y to €37.2m, and an EBITDA of €12.7m. This is especially encouraging in light of management’s recent guidance of €130–143m GGR (0–10% decline) and an EBITDA of €29–33m for FY19. While this guidance seems conservative, we are leaving our forecasts broadly unchanged until there is further clarity on the impact of the Swiss IP blocking. The stock trades at 13.1x EV/EBITDA and 18.1x P/E for FY19e, which is at the top of the peer group, although its ability to pay high dividends is very attractive.
Year end |
Revenue (GGR) (€m) |
EBITDA |
EPS* |
DPS** |
P/E |
Yield |
12/17 |
145.4 |
36.4 |
4.81 |
7.50 |
14.6 |
10.6 |
12/18 |
143.4 |
36.2 |
4.65 |
6.50 |
15.2 |
9.2 |
12/19e |
136.9 |
31.6 |
3.89 |
5.00 |
18.1 |
7.1 |
12/20e |
140.3 |
32.1 |
3.95 |
5.00 |
17.8 |
7.1 |
Note: *EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. ** Includes special dividends.
Q119 results: 12.1% growth in GGR
Benefiting from marketing momentum in 2018, BAH has reported impressive Q119 GGR growth of 12.1% to €37.2m, with an EBITDA of €12.7m. This compares to €33.2m and €9.3m in Q118. The number of registered customers now totals 5.1m vs 4.9m at Q118. During the quarter, marketing costs of €8.2m represented 22% of GGR, which is lower than long-term trends (25–30%) due to the lack of any major tournaments. Excluding customer balances, net cash at Q119 was €78.9m and the FY18 final dividend of €6.50 (€45.5m cash) will be paid in May.
Guidance reiterated, estimates broadly unchanged
Management has reiterated FY19 guidance of €130–143m GGR and an EBITDA of €29–33m. Although this appears very conservative in light of the strong Q119 performance, we note that uncertainties in Switzerland (IP blocking effective from July 2019), as well as the lack of any major tournaments, are likely to weigh heavily on volumes. Pending further clarity on Swiss volumes, we have left our forecasts broadly unchanged, other than some minor adjustments due to IFRS16 (slightly higher depreciation and leasing expenses). The company continues to face regulatory uncertainty across many of its markets - please see our March initiation report for details.
Valuation: High dividend yield supports stock
Despite regulatory concerns, BAH’s shares have rebounded over 50% ytd, largely due to the company’s ability to continue paying generous dividends. The stock trades at 13.1x EV/EBITDA and 18.1x P/E for FY19e, which is at the top end of the peer group, but its healthy net cash position and 7.1% forecast dividend yield are very attractive. In our view, a major catalyst for a further re-rating would be concrete evidence of positive regulation in core markets, especially Germany and Austria.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
€'m |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
2021e |
||
31-December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
INCOME STATEMENT |
||||||||||
Revenue (GGR) |
|
|
107.0 |
121.6 |
138.7 |
145.4 |
143.4 |
136.9 |
140.3 |
143.1 |
Cost of Sales |
(12.3) |
(21.3) |
(25.8) |
(27.6) |
(28.2) |
(25.8) |
(26.2) |
(26.8) |
||
Net Gaming Revenue |
94.7 |
100.3 |
112.9 |
117.8 |
115.1 |
111.1 |
114.1 |
116.3 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
26.8 |
31.6 |
33.0 |
36.4 |
36.2 |
31.6 |
32.1 |
33.4 |
Normalised operating profit |
|
|
25.9 |
30.7 |
31.9 |
35.1 |
34.9 |
29.7 |
30.3 |
31.6 |
Amortisation of acquired intangibles |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Exceptionals |
(0.1) |
0.1 |
0.0 |
(0.9) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Share-based payments |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Reported operating profit |
25.8 |
30.8 |
31.9 |
34.1 |
34.9 |
29.7 |
30.3 |
31.6 |
||
Net Interest |
1.7 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
27.5 |
32.9 |
34.1 |
36.6 |
35.0 |
29.6 |
30.2 |
31.5 |
Profit Before Tax (reported) |
|
|
27.5 |
32.9 |
34.1 |
35.7 |
35.0 |
29.6 |
30.2 |
31.5 |
Reported tax |
(1.8) |
(2.3) |
(3.1) |
(2.8) |
(2.4) |
(2.4) |
(2.4) |
(2.5) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
25.7 |
30.6 |
31.0 |
33.8 |
32.6 |
27.3 |
27.7 |
28.9 |
||
Profit After Tax (reported) |
25.6 |
30.7 |
31.0 |
32.8 |
32.6 |
27.3 |
27.7 |
28.9 |
||
Discontinued operations |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net income (normalised) |
25.7 |
30.6 |
31.0 |
33.8 |
32.6 |
27.3 |
27.7 |
28.9 |
||
Net income (reported) |
25.6 |
30.7 |
31.0 |
32.8 |
32.6 |
27.3 |
27.7 |
28.9 |
||
Basic average number of shares outstanding (m) |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
7.0 |
||
EPS - basic normalised (€) |
|
|
3.66 |
4.36 |
4.42 |
4.81 |
4.65 |
3.89 |
3.95 |
4.12 |
EPS - diluted normalised (€) |
|
|
3.66 |
4.36 |
4.42 |
4.81 |
4.65 |
3.89 |
3.95 |
4.12 |
EPS - basic reported (€) |
|
|
3.65 |
4.37 |
4.42 |
4.68 |
4.65 |
3.89 |
3.95 |
4.12 |
Dividend (€) |
0.60 |
2.25 |
7.50 |
7.50 |
6.50 |
5.00 |
5.00 |
5.00 |
||
Revenue growth (%) |
25.0 |
13.6 |
14.0 |
4.8 |
(-1.4) |
(-4.5) |
2.5 |
2.0 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
88.5 |
82.5 |
81.4 |
81.0 |
80.3 |
81.2 |
81.3 |
81.3 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
25.0 |
26.0 |
23.8 |
25.0 |
25.3 |
23.1 |
22.9 |
23.3 |
||
Normalised Operating Margin |
24.2 |
25.2 |
23.0 |
24.1 |
24.4 |
21.7 |
21.6 |
22.0 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
4.5 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
4.0 |
3.4 |
7.6 |
6.8 |
5.9 |
Intangible Assets |
2.4 |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
||
Tangible Assets |
2.1 |
2.6 |
2.9 |
2.0 |
1.4 |
5.5 |
4.5 |
3.4 |
||
Investments & other |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
89.9 |
123.3 |
140.5 |
120.6 |
99.9 |
83.7 |
78.2 |
73.9 |
Stocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Debtors |
57.9 |
70.7 |
47.9 |
16.9 |
20.1 |
25.1 |
30.1 |
35.1 |
||
Cash & cash equivalents |
21.8 |
40.7 |
82.3 |
94.4 |
70.6 |
49.1 |
38.6 |
29.3 |
||
Customer cash |
9.7 |
9.4 |
9.5 |
7.5 |
7.7 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
8.0 |
||
Other |
0.5 |
2.5 |
0.7 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(27.0) |
(32.7) |
(35.7) |
(35.3) |
(34.0) |
(38.0) |
(39.0) |
(40.0) |
Creditors |
(1.3) |
(1.0) |
(0.5) |
(1.8) |
(3.3) |
(4.3) |
(5.3) |
(6.3) |
||
Short term provisions/ tax liabilities |
(14.1) |
(19.9) |
(21.4) |
(22.6) |
(19.2) |
(22.2) |
(22.2) |
(22.2) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other |
(11.5) |
(11.8) |
(13.9) |
(10.9) |
(11.5) |
(11.5) |
(11.5) |
(11.5) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(0.1) |
(0.0) |
(0.1) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(3.5) |
(3.5) |
(3.5) |
Long term borrowings |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(0.1) |
(0.0) |
(0.1) |
(0.0) |
(0.0) |
(3.5) |
(3.5) |
(3.5) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
67.5 |
95.3 |
109.6 |
89.3 |
69.3 |
49.8 |
42.5 |
36.3 |
Minority interests |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Shareholders' equity |
|
|
67.5 |
95.3 |
109.6 |
89.3 |
69.3 |
49.8 |
42.5 |
36.3 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||||
Op Cash Flow before WC and tax |
26.8 |
31.6 |
33.0 |
36.4 |
36.2 |
31.6 |
32.1 |
33.4 |
||
Working capital |
(4.4) |
(3.6) |
(0.1) |
(2.4) |
(6.5) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
(4.0) |
||
Exceptional & other |
5.8 |
5.9 |
0.4 |
(0.4) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Tax |
(1.8) |
(2.3) |
(3.1) |
(2.8) |
(5.0) |
(2.4) |
(2.4) |
(2.5) |
||
Net operating cash flow |
|
|
26.4 |
31.7 |
30.2 |
30.8 |
24.8 |
25.2 |
25.7 |
26.9 |
Capex |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
(0.7) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
(1.0) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(2.4) |
(1.1) |
(1.3) |
(0.5) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net interest |
2.2 |
2.2 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
(0.1) |
||
Equity financing |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Dividends |
(2.8) |
(4.2) |
(15.8) |
(52.6) |
(52.6) |
(45.6) |
(35.1) |
(35.1) |
||
Other |
(15.0) |
(9.6) |
28.2 |
33.0 |
4.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Net Cash Flow |
8.4 |
19.0 |
41.6 |
12.1 |
(23.8) |
(21.5) |
(10.5) |
(9.3) |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(13.4) |
(21.8) |
(40.7) |
(82.3) |
(94.4) |
(70.6) |
(49.1) |
(38.6) |
FX |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Other non-cash movements |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(21.8) |
(40.7) |
(82.3) |
(94.4) |
(70.6) |
(49.1) |
(38.6) |
(29.3) |
Source: bet-at-home, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: Healthcare
In April 2019, Oryzon released the results from the first two cohorts in the Phase II REIMAGINE trial, namely borderline personality disorder (BPD) and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The datasets included the first efficacy results, which demonstrated vafidemstat’s potential in aggression management in these patients. REIMAGINE is a basket trial, enrolling patients with two neurodegenerative and three psychiatric diseases, hence the cohorts were small (six patients each). All primary and secondary endpoints were met with high statistical significance, which prompted Oryzon to announce that it now plans to expand vafidemstat’s R&D beyond the currently ongoing other Phase II trials in Alzheimer’s disease (results in H219) and multiple sclerosis. Our valuation is higher at €430m or €11.0/share (€9.3/share previously) with the inclusion of BPD.