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Research: Consumer
Treatt has reported yet another set of strong results in FY18. The company remains in the sweet spot of current consumer trends, with ingredients that help to deliver better-for-you products with clean labels and without compromising on taste. The US expansion is on track and on budget, and will be fully operational in H119. The UK relocation is progressing well, although it is more complex and the timetable has slipped by about six months. FY19 has started well, and at this stage we leave our estimates broadly unchanged. Our DCF-derived fair value remains 510p.
Written by
Treatt |
A more normal year |
FY18 results |
Food & beverages |
4 December 2018 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
Treatt is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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Treatt has reported yet another set of strong results in FY18. The company remains in the sweet spot of current consumer trends, with ingredients that help to deliver better-for-you products with clean labels and without compromising on taste. The US expansion is on track and on budget, and will be fully operational in H119. The UK relocation is progressing well, although it is more complex and the timetable has slipped by about six months. FY19 has started well, and at this stage we leave our estimates broadly unchanged. Our DCF-derived fair value remains 510p.
Year end |
Revenue (£m) |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS |
P/E |
Yield |
09/17 |
101.3 |
12.8 |
18.5 |
4.8 |
22.7 |
1.1 |
09/18 |
112.2 |
13.8 |
20.3 |
5.1 |
20.7 |
1.2 |
09/19e |
116.1 |
14.2 |
19.1 |
5.1 |
22.0 |
1.2 |
09/20e |
120.7 |
14.8 |
20.0 |
5.3 |
21.1 |
1.3 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.
Expansion continues
The strong growth over the last few years caused a need for an expansion of capacity at Treatt’s US facility. The increase will be substantial, adding over 80% of prior capacity, and the project has so far been delivered on time and on budget, which is testament to management’s disciplined approach. The UK relocation is more significant and more complex. The design phase has taken longer than expected, hence the slippage in the timetable. We note the overall cost has crept up over time, but this is in part due to management’s decision rightly to hold back capital investment at the old facility, hence there is a degree of catch-up on the new facility.
Pricing pressure weighs on margins
Increased raw material costs and some pricing pressure on new business wins resulted in gross margins falling c 20bp in FY18. Adverse FX movements were also unhelpful. As expected, a large increase in working capital is attributable to timing issues and increased costs, but also to longer payment terms with a number of larger customers. Following the equity raise in November 2017, the balance sheet remains well-funded with a net cash position of £10.1m at end September 2018.
Valuation: fair value of 510p
We value Treatt using a DCF model, which indicates a fair value of 510p (unchanged). Treatt trades at 22.0 FY19e P/E and 16.9x FY19e EV/EBITDA. On P/E it trades at a c 20% discount to its peer group, and on EV/EBITDA it is at a c 5% discount.
FY results
FY18 results were broadly in line with our expectations. Following our slight downgrade in October with the pre-close trading update, our sales forecast was £110.5m and FY revenues came in slightly higher at £112.2m. Adjusted PBT was £12.6m, vs our £12.5m forecast, or 8% growth vs FY17. Adjusted EPS (on an IFRS basis)was up c 10% to 18.0p. We illustrate the slight changes to our P&L forecasts in Exhibit 1 below.
Exhibit 1: Old vs new key P&L forecasts
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
|||||||
Forecast |
Actual |
Diff |
Old |
New |
Diff |
Old |
New |
Diff |
|
Revenue |
110,545 |
112,163 |
1.5% |
116,073 |
116,089 |
0.0% |
120,715 |
120,732 |
0.0% |
PBT* |
12,479 |
12,642 |
1.3% |
13,122 |
13,088 |
-0.3% |
13,631 |
13,667 |
0.3% |
Basic EPS* |
15.7 |
18.0 |
14.5% |
16.5 |
17.2 |
3.8% |
17.2 |
17.9 |
4.4% |
Source: Edison Investment Research. Note: *Stated on IFRS basis.
Valuation
We illustrate Treatt’s relative valuation versus its ingredients peer group in Exhibit below. Treatt trades at a discount to its peer group on a P/E basis, and broadly in line on an EV/EBITDA basis. We believe some discount is justified to reflect its small size and because some of its products are relatively ‘upstream’ in the ingredients spectrum, particularly the bulk ingredients that are sold to other ingredients companies.
Exhibit 2: Comparative valuation
Market cap (m) |
P/E (x) |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
Dividend yield (%) |
|||||
2019e |
2020e |
2019e |
2020e |
2019e |
2020e |
|||
Givaudan |
CHF 22,477 |
29.3 |
26.1 |
20.2 |
17.8 |
2.5 |
2.6 |
|
IFF |
$15,118 |
23.1 |
23.0 |
16.4 |
11.7 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
|
Symrise |
CHF 9,316 |
33.2 |
28.9 |
17.3 |
15.7 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
|
Chr Hansen |
DKK 77,229 |
39.6 |
35.0 |
25.9 |
23.3 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
Kerry |
€ 15,709 |
25.6 |
23.2 |
18.2 |
16.7 |
0.8 |
0.8 |
|
Ingredion |
$7,434 |
15.2 |
13.9 |
8.6 |
8.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
|
Peer group average |
27.7 |
25.0 |
17.8 |
15.6 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
||
Treatt |
239.0 |
22.0 |
21.1 |
16.9 |
14.3 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
|
Premium/(discount) to peer group (%) |
(20.3%) |
(15.7%) |
(4.9%) |
(8.5%) |
(19.7%) |
(20.2%) |
||
Source: I/B/E/S (prices as of 27 November 2018).
Our DCF-derived fair value is unchanged at 510p as our forecast changes are minor. Our longer-term sales growth forecast remains at 5.0% pa, falling to 2% growth in perpetuity. Our DCF is calculated based on a WACC of 6.8% (encompassing a beta of 0.8, an equity risk premium of 5.0% and a borrowing spread of 5.0%) and a terminal growth rate of 2%.
Exhibit 3: Financial summary
£000's |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
2019e |
2020e |
||
Year end September |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
||||||||
Revenue |
|
|
85,934 |
88,040 |
101,250 |
112,163 |
116,089 |
120,732 |
Cost of Sales |
(66,955) |
(67,639) |
(75,985) |
(84,407) |
(88,058) |
(91,339) |
||
Gross Profit |
18,979 |
20,401 |
25,265 |
27,756 |
28,031 |
29,394 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
10,307 |
11,604 |
15,049 |
16,627 |
15,837 |
18,617 |
Operating Profit (before amort., except and sbp.) |
|
|
9,063 |
10,257 |
13,650 |
15,108 |
14,135 |
14,946 |
Intangible Amortisation |
(175) |
(142) |
(137) |
(124) |
0 |
0 |
||
Share based payments |
(198) |
(566) |
(966) |
(1,040) |
(1,096) |
(1,144) |
||
Other |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
8,690 |
9,549 |
12,547 |
13,944 |
13,039 |
13,802 |
||
Net Interest |
(740) |
(703) |
(851) |
(1,302) |
49 |
(135) |
||
Exceptionals |
(174) |
(553) |
0 |
(1,105) |
0 |
0 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
8,323 |
9,554 |
12,799 |
13,806 |
14,184 |
14,811 |
Profit Before Tax (FRS 3) |
|
|
7,776 |
8,293 |
11,696 |
11,537 |
13,088 |
13,667 |
Profit Before Tax (company) |
|
|
7,950 |
8,846 |
11,696 |
12,642 |
13,088 |
13,667 |
Tax |
(1,786) |
(2,144) |
(3,129) |
(2,284) |
(3,337) |
(3,485) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
6,537 |
7,410 |
9,670 |
11,522 |
10,846 |
11,326 |
||
Profit After Tax (FRS 3) |
5,990 |
6,149 |
8,567 |
9,253 |
9,750 |
10,182 |
||
Discontinued operations |
2,976 |
|||||||
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
51.5 |
51.9 |
52.2 |
56.8 |
56.8 |
56.8 |
||
EPS - normalised (p) |
|
|
12.7 |
14.3 |
18.5 |
20.3 |
19.1 |
20.0 |
EPS - normalised & fully diluted (p) |
|
|
12.6 |
14.1 |
17.9 |
19.8 |
18.6 |
19.4 |
EPS - (IFRS) (p) |
|
|
11.6 |
11.8 |
16.4 |
21.5 |
17.2 |
17.9 |
Dividend per share (p) |
4.0 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
5.1 |
5.3 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
22.1 |
23.2 |
25.0 |
24.7 |
24.1 |
24.3 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
12.0 |
13.2 |
14.9 |
14.8 |
13.6 |
15.4 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
10.5 |
11.7 |
13.5 |
13.5 |
12.2 |
12.4 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
||||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
13,381 |
16,161 |
19,532 |
21,863 |
43,321 |
54,462 |
Intangible Assets |
1,736 |
3,364 |
3,331 |
752 |
752 |
752 |
||
Tangible Assets |
10,998 |
11,361 |
14,821 |
20,038 |
41,496 |
52,637 |
||
Investments |
647 |
1,436 |
1,380 |
1,073 |
1,073 |
1,073 |
||
Current Assets |
|
|
45,045 |
54,435 |
68,230 |
102,401 |
102,706 |
105,039 |
Stocks |
25,799 |
29,990 |
42,878 |
39,642 |
40,797 |
42,188 |
||
Debtors |
17,635 |
17,853 |
19,973 |
28,828 |
29,605 |
30,548 |
||
Cash |
1,477 |
6,588 |
4,748 |
32,304 |
32,304 |
32,304 |
||
Other |
134 |
4 |
631 |
1,627 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(13,481) |
(16,388) |
(27,003) |
(35,781) |
(40,258) |
(43,773) |
Creditors |
(12,675) |
(15,834) |
(19,266) |
(16,479) |
(16,611) |
(16,672) |
||
Short term borrowings |
(567) |
(487) |
(7,680) |
(19,244) |
(23,647) |
(27,101) |
||
Provisions |
(239) |
(67) |
(57) |
(58) |
0 |
0 |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(11,760) |
(17,021) |
(14,281) |
(6,858) |
(16,480) |
(18,008) |
Long term borrowings |
(7,065) |
(7,755) |
(7,293) |
(3,001) |
(11,823) |
(13,551) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(4,695) |
(9,266) |
(6,988) |
(3,857) |
(4,657) |
(4,457) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
33,185 |
37,187 |
46,478 |
81,625 |
89,289 |
97,720 |
CASH FLOW |
||||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
8,667 |
10,804 |
4,683 |
3,580 |
15,019 |
16,144 |
Net Interest |
(740) |
(703) |
(913) |
(609) |
49 |
(135) |
||
Tax |
(1,469) |
(2,022) |
(2,822) |
(2,978) |
(3,337) |
(3,485) |
||
Capex |
(924) |
(679) |
(5,111) |
(6,190) |
(23,161) |
(14,811) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
(103) |
(861) |
(1,667) |
8,357 |
1,100 |
0 |
||
Financing |
147 |
280 |
270 |
21,090 |
0 |
0 |
||
Dividends |
(1,978) |
(2,095) |
(3,025) |
(2,876) |
(2,895) |
(2,895) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
3,600 |
4,724 |
(8,585) |
20,374 |
(13,225) |
(5,181) |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
9,584 |
6,155 |
1,654 |
10,225 |
(10,059) |
3,166 |
HP finance leases initiated |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
(171) |
(223) |
14 |
(90) |
1 |
0 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
6,155 |
1,654 |
10,225 |
(10,059) |
3,166 |
8,348 |
Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research
|
|
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