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Disco Dragon has all the moves

Mondo TV 16 November 2021 Update
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Mondo TV

Disco Dragon has all the moves

Q3 results

Media

16 November 2021

Price

€1.38

Market cap

€60m

Net debt (€m) at end September 2021

5.2

Shares in issue

43.6m

Free float

71.1%

Code

MTVI

Primary exchange

Borsa Italiana Star

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(3.1)

(10.4)

(7.4)

Rel (local)

(7.7)

(14.2)

(31.1)

52-week high/low

€1.75

€1.21

Business description

Mondo TV is a global media group with a focus on the production, acquisition and monetisation of animated children’s television series. Headquartered in Rome, it also holds controlling stakes in listed subsidiaries Mondo TV France (21%), Mondo TV Suisse (63%) and Mondo TV Studios (78%). It owns the rights to more than 1,600 TV episodes and films, which it distributes across global markets.

Next events

FY21 results

Mar 22

Analyst

Fiona Orford-Williams

+44 (0)20 3077 5739

Mondo TV is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Mondo TV posted a strong Q3 performance, with production value for 9M21 up 32% on the prior year and EBIT ahead by 20%. Encouragingly, the progress is across several key properties. A further 13 episodes of Disco Dragon were delivered by Mondo France in Q3, while Grisù, Agent 203 and Meteoheroes all continue to perform strongly. Properties in earlier stages of development are also building traction. The group is on track to meet its business plan projections and our forecasts are unchanged. The valuation remains at a significant discount to global peers.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

EV/EBIT
(x)

P/E
(x)

12/19

23.1

6.2

11.3

0.0

6.6

12.2

12/20

24.7

6.4

13.2

0.0

5.0

10.5

12/21e

29.2

9.1

14.6

0.0

4.5

9.5

12/22e

31.3

10.2

18.3

0.0

4.0

7.5

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Studio's investment paying off

The reverse takeover of the group’s Spanish subsidiary by that based in the Canary Islands is now complete, with the resulting Tenerife-based entity named Mondo TV Studios. This will be a more efficient structure and easier to market as an animation and pre-production facility to the industry, upgraded by previous investment. In Q3, Mondo TV Studios won the animation work for a new series for the Latin American market, Nivis, amigos de otro mundo, and the animation and pre-production for One Love, for T-Rex Digimation, for which the group will arrange worldwide distribution (excluding Italian-speaking territories and the Indian subcontinent). Studios is also to provide pre-production and artistic direction for Letrabots, for Cicaboom, with Mondo arranging animation and post-production for the project, for which it will be entitled to 40% of the resulting IP.

Balance sheet supports development

The balance sheet was secured with the conversion of the final Atlas bonds (see Outlook note), enabling the investment needed to bring multiple projects through to commercial realisation. Investment of €5.8m in Q321 takes the year-to-date total to €20.8m, with our full year estimate standing at €27.7m. This heightened level of investment obviously increases amortisation charges but lays the ground for driving the revenue line over the short to medium term. Net debt at end September was €5.2m, from €3.6m at the half year. We now expect year-end net debt of €2.0m.

Valuation: Deep discount persists

Parity to global peers on averaged earnings multiples across FY21 and FY22 would imply a value of €3.19/share, from €3.54 in September, since when peers’ share prices have slipped back. A DCF (WACC of 11.5%, terminal growth 2%) suggests a price of €2.06/share (was €2.03). The midpoint of these is €2.61/share (was €2.79). We would expect Mondo’s valuation discount to close further as the financial benefit of recent deals flows through to revenues and EBITDA.

Good progress continues

The table below splits out the progress made on a quarterly and a nine-month basis over the prior year. The good momentum continued into Q321, with a number of property and licensing deals, some of which are outlined above. The value of the existing library is easy to overlook but it is a useful asset, as shown by the latest deal to license around 20 earlier series in Albania, where the group had no active trading relationships prior to this deal.

Operating costs appear to be well under control, with the group having targeted €1.5m of savings over 12 months at the interim stage. This is within the scope of our forecasts.

Exhibit 1: Mondo TV Group results summary

€m

H121

% change on H120

Q321

% change on Q320

9M21

% change
9M21 on 9M20

Revenue

15.0

+33

7.2

+37

22.1

+35

Capitalised content development

2.5

+48

0.9

-28

3.4

+16

Production value

17.5

+35

8.1

+25

25.6

+32

Operating costs

(5.5)

+18

(2.1)

-16

(7.5)

+5

EBITDA

12.1

+45

6.0

+52

18.1

+47

D&A (including exceptionals)

(7.9)

+66

(4.2)

+62

(12.1)

+67

EBIT

4.2

+17

1.8

+24

6.0

+20

Net financial costs

0.3

N/A

0.5

N/A

0.8

N/A

PBT

4.5

+33

2.3

+65

6.8

+42

Tax

(1.3)

+14

(0.7)

+75

(2.0)

+29

Minorities

(0.3)

N/A

(0.1)

N/A

0.3

N/A

Net profit

2.9

+16

1.6

+41

4.5

+24

Source: Mondo TV accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: May not tally due to rounding.

Valuation

Exhibit 2: Peer group valuations

Quoted

Current

Market

ytd

P/E

EV/Sales

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

Name

currency

price

cap (m)

perf. (%)

Last (x)

1FY (x)

2FY (x)

Last (x)

Last (x)

1FY (x)

2FY (x)

Last (x)

1FY (x)

2FY (x)

Xilam Animation

EUR

40.30

196

-14

74.2

28.1

21.8

10.4

14.9

6.4

5.1

53.7

21.7

17.3

Mediawan

EUR

12.00

370

0

17.3

N/A

N/A

1.9

12.1

N/A

N/A

15.2

N/A

N/A

Lions Gate Ent

USD

17.41

3,709

53

N/A

N/A

79.2

2.2

13.3

16.1

13.4

N/A

66.7

33.6

Toei

JPY

18,150

742,311

124

64.5

63.3

59.0

13.9

44.6

42.3

40.8

N/A

N/A

N/A

Corus Ent

CAD

5.73

1,174

34

6.4

6.4

6.3

1.8

5.3

5.1

5.1

7.5

7.1

7.0

Spin Master

CAD

47.98

1,523

65

75.0

21.4

19.7

0.6

5.1

2.5

2.4

10.7

3.8

3.5

Amuse

JPY

2,242

39,007

-13

22.5

N/A

N/A

0.4

4.2

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Boat Rocker

CAD

7.00

241

-20

N/A

15.2

13.2

1.1

N/A

9.3

3.1

N/A

N/A

4.4

Average

29

43.3

26.9

33.2

4.0

14.2

13.6

11.6

21.8

24.8

13.2

Median

17

43.5

21.4

20.7

1.9

12.1

7.8

5.1

13.0

14.4

7.0

Mondo TV

EUR

1.33

60

0

10.5

9.5

7.5

1.7

2.3

1.7

1.6

5.0

4.5

4.0

Discount to Median

76%

56%

64%

6%

81%

79%

69%

62%

69%

43%

Source: Refinitiv. Note: Prices as at 12 November 2021.

The global children’s content, animation and licensing peer group is very broad and their success or otherwise depends heavily on their IP portfolios. Given the range of activity and the high investment levels needed to drive revenues, we would view EV/EBIT as the most useful of these earnings metrics. Here, Mondo TV is clearly trading at a significant discount, in part reflecting its much smaller scale.

Exhibit 3: Financial summary

€'m

2018

2019

2020

2021e

2022e

31-December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

18.9

23.1

24.7

29.2

31.3

Production value

22.2

26.7

30.4

34.9

36.9

Cost of Sales

(7.7)

(6.6)

(5.9)

(3.4)

(3.9)

Gross Profit

11.2

16.4

18.8

25.8

27.4

EBITDA

 

 

11.2

16.4

18.8

25.8

27.4

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

 

(30.6)

6.5

8.7

9.6

10.7

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

(23.9)

(0.2)

(0.4)

0.0

0.0

Share-based payments

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Reported operating profit

(54.5)

6.3

8.3

9.6

10.7

Net Interest

0.5

(0.3)

(2.4)

(0.5)

(0.5)

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

(30.1)

6.2

6.4

9.1

10.2

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(54.0)

6.0

6.0

9.1

10.2

Reported tax

11.5

(2.1)

(2.0)

(2.7)

(3.2)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(22.0)

4.1

4.6

6.6

7.4

Profit After Tax (reported)

(42.5)

3.9

3.9

6.4

7.1

Minority interests

3.0

(0.1)

0.4

(0.5)

0.6

Discontinued operations

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net income (normalised)

(19.0)

4.0

5.0

6.1

8.0

Net income (reported)

(39.5)

3.8

4.4

5.9

7.7

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

34

35

38

42

44

EPS - normalised (c)

 

 

(56.3)

11.3

13.2

14.6

18.3

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

 

(56.3)

11.3

13.2

14.6

18.3

EPS - (c)

 

 

(117.0)

10.8

11.4

14.1

17.6

Dividend per share (c)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Revenue growth (%)

(40.9)

21.9

7.1

18.4

6.9

EBITDA Margin on production value (%)

50.4

61.4

62.0

74.0

74.2

Normalised Operating Margin on production value (%)

(138.1)

24.4

28.7

27.6

29.0

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

45.9

50.5

59.1

70.2

79.3

Intangible Assets

30.9

35.8

44.8

56.8

65.8

Tangible Assets

0.3

1.6

1.2

0.9

1.0

Investments & other

14.7

13.1

13.1

12.5

12.5

Current Assets

 

 

37.2

35.7

43.6

43.5

45.0

Stocks

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Debtors

20.6

24.9

30.7

29.1

30.5

Cash & cash equivalents

12.5

8.0

9.9

12.8

13.0

Other

4.2

2.8

3.0

1.6

1.6

Current Liabilities

 

 

(25.2)

(19.9)

(23.7)

(24.6)

(24.6)

Creditors

(21.6)

(13.8)

(14.6)

(13.5)

(14.5)

Tax and social security

(0.5)

(0.8)

(3.6)

(4.2)

(3.1)

Short term borrowings

(3.0)

(5.3)

(5.3)

(6.8)

(6.8)

Other

(0.1)

(0.0)

(0.2)

(0.2)

(0.2)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(1.9)

(4.7)

(9.6)

(8.9)

(8.9)

Long term borrowings

(1.3)

(4.1)

(8.8)

(8.1)

(8.1)

Other long term liabilities

(0.6)

(0.6)

(0.8)

(0.8)

(0.8)

Net Assets

 

 

56.0

61.6

69.3

80.1

90.8

Minority interests

2.1

(1.2)

(0.7)

(0.8)

(0.7)

Shareholders' equity

 

 

58.1

60.4

68.6

79.4

90.1

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

11.2

16.4

17.0

25.3

27.4

Working capital

6.0

(10.6)

(2.5)

1.9

(0.3)

Exceptional & other

(11.0)

1.4

(0.4)

1.1

0.0

Tax

11.5

(2.1)

(2.0)

(3.4)

(3.9)

Operating cash flow

 

 

17.6

5.1

12.1

24.9

23.2

Capex

(28.6)

(14.2)

(18.7)

(27.7)

(25.2)

Acquisitions/disposals

0.0

(0.1)

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net interest

0.0

2.9

4.8

(0.5)

(0.5)

Equity financing

20.9

1.8

3.8

6.2

0.0

Dividends

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

10.0

(4.5)

2.0

2.9

(2.5)

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

2.0

(8.0)

1.4

4.1

2.0

FX

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other non-cash movements

0.0

(4.9)

(4.7)

(0.9)

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

(8.0)

1.4

4.1

2.0

4.5

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research

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This report has been commissioned by Mondo TV and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Mondo TV. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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This report has been commissioned by Mondo TV and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by Mondo TV. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £60,000 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2021 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison).

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Crown Wealth Group Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 494274). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

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Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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