Conversion commenced

OnTheMarket 13 June 2019 Update
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OnTheMarket

Conversion commenced

Final results

Media

13 June 2019

Price

105p

Market cap

£64m

Net cash (£m) at end FY19

15.7

Shares in issue

61.4m

Free float

46%

Code

OTMP

Primary exchange

AIM

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

5.0

(6.7)

(38.6)

Rel (local)

3.2

(9.1)

(35.2)

52-week high/low

177.5p

74.0p

Business description

OnTheMarket is an estate agent-backed company that operates a synonymous property portal. It is the third-largest UK residential property portal provider in terms of traffic.

Next events

Interim results

October 2019

Analysts

Fiona Orford-Williams

+44 (0)20 3077 5739

Russell Pointon

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

OnTheMarket is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

Final FY19 results to end January show OnTheMarket (OTM) laying the groundwork and building a meaningful business challenger to the two main incumbent UK property portals. The drive to convert participating agents to paying contracts is now under way, with almost 1,000 branches signed to date, at an average revenue per advertiser (ARPA) of £337. Over half of these signings are for three- to five-years. Most of the balance are on shorter contracts, with the option to extend. It is this programme’s success that will determine the speed of the group’s transition into profit.

Year end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

01/17

15.6

1.0

(1.4)

0.0

N/A

N/A

01/18

13.6

2.7

7.4

0.0

14.2

N/A

01/19

14.2

(13.6)

(22.5)

0.0

N/A

N/A

01/20e

28.5

(9.4)

(12.0)

0.0

N/A

N/A

01/21e

54.3

7.9

10.1

0.0

10.4

N/A

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Driving ARPA to deliver profit

FY19 revenue was slightly short of our expected £15.0m, but the £11.8m EBITDA loss was better than our modelled £14.4m, as the marketing campaigns’ success meant less had to be spent. For FY20e we have broadly maintained our EBITDA forecasts on revenue trimmed by 11%. Revenues now cover operating costs before marketing spend. We have been cautious in our assumptions on ARPA, pushing them ahead 14% for the year, as much depends on the timing of contract conversions from free trials. The £337 average for the new signings compares with Rightmove’s latest published ARPA of £1,005. We also now publish our FY21e OTM projections, when a full-year of fee-paying-only customers will drive much stronger ARPA progress, transitioning the group to profit. Management indicates that the group has sufficient cash resource to get to this stage.

Traffic growth demonstrates value

OTM now has over 12,500 agent offices under listing contracts. Brand awareness and localised marketing and the expansion in the portal content – particularly ‘new and exclusive’ properties – are substantially increasing website traffic, with 25.4m visits in May 2019, up 8% on the previous high achieved in January. The number of leads delivered to agency branches is now up to 102/month (Rightmove: 171 FY18), with the ratio of leads delivered to cost clearly in OTM’s favour. The group’s salesforce (50 people from 15 at listing) is focused on engaging with agents on free trials to convert them to fee-paying customers, driving group ARPA and moving the group into profit.

Valuation: Overstating execution risk

The shares are trading at 1.7x our FY20e EV/revenue compared with Rightmove at 17.9x (10.1x average for a broader global property portal peer set). A DCF on a WACC of 10.2% implies a value of 375p/share vs 332p (October 2018) as we rolled the model forward. Given the potential variance of outcomes, we suggest an execution risk discount of 30% would be appropriate, indicating a price of 262p.

Minor changes to forecasts

The main differences between our FY19 forecasts and the outturn were a slightly lower revenue number (£14.2m versus our figure of £15.0m) and a better earnings performance. We had factored in a higher number for the marketing spend (other operating costs were broadly in line with our expectations). As set out at the time of listing, FY19 has been the year that OTM had to invest heavily to build the underlying base of participating agents and gain traction with the property-buying public in the UK. Both these objectives have been achieved.

For FY20e, the group needs to persuade the signed-up agents that the OTM is a credible alternative to the major incumbents. We have taken a slightly more cautious approach on the revenue forecast, trimming the FY20e figure from £32.0m to £28.5m, but all depends on the timing of conversions to fee paying customers and we are encouraged both by the level of ARPA being achieved in these negotiations and by the proportion of agents signing on to contracts of a good length, which will build far better visibility into modelling in future years.

Exhibit 1: Changes and new forecasts

EPS (p)

PBT (£m)

EBITDA (£m)

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

Old

New

% chg.

2019

(27.4)

(22.5)

-17.9

(16.0)

(13.6)

-15.0

(14.4)

(11.8)

-18.1

2020e

(12.5)

(12.0)

-4.0

(9.4)

(9.4)

0.0

(7.8)

(7.5)

-3.8

2021e

-

10.1

N/A

-

7.9

N/A

-

10.1

N/A

Source: Edison Investment Research

We previously indicated that we expected the group to return a profit as the ARPA grows and for it to turn cash-flow positive in FY21. We have now formalised this by publishing our forecasts for that year.

Our modelling indicates the group has sufficient funding to see it through to that point. At the balance sheet of 31 January, the group had net cash (no debt) of £15.7m. As at 31 May, this figure was £10.2m.

Proving value

The big push to build market share, in this instance defined as the proportion of residential properties listed on the UK market with agents as at end May, has been successful enough for the group to have c 65% of market-leader Rightmove’s property listing volumes and 83% of Zoopla, the number two player. This has obviously only been possible by the strategy of offering free trials.

To convince agents to stay on the portal once their trial periods have expired, OTM has to demonstrate clearly that it is delivering good value for money and better value for money than those agents’ existing arrangements. Using the ARPA figure for those newly signed up of £337 per month, OTM provided an average of 30 leads per £100 in May 2019. The equivalent figure for Rightmove for 2018 was 17 leads per month per £100. However, Rightmove provides other services that agents find useful and OTM is now building and launching equivalents, so that any agents making the transition will find the process more seamless.

Growing the offering

There are three clear further revenue lines that will be added. As well as the additional services to be provided within the listing fee, such as the recently launched ‘Market Appraisal Guide’, OTM can also drive revenues through:

offering additional advertising options, such as enhanced property presentation and banner advertising, as is common with other portal operators;

opening the portal for third-party advertisers whose products and services are relevant to website visitors; and

listing new homes directly from the developers.

These options are all being addressed. The IT team has been expanded from 21 to 58 people to ensure the day-to-day work of the property portal team is not impeded by the need to continue development.

Management is open to small acquisitions in property technology, provided the pricing is sensible and it can add to the capability and profitability of clients.

Stressed market helpful

Somewhat counterintuitively, a difficult property market provides a useful backdrop, particularly as OTM looks to build market share. This is for two key reasons:

The ‘new and exclusive’ listing option works well for agents and their customers. Listing new-to-market properties on OTM’s portal for 24 hours in advance of any other portal means people with high purchase intent are more likely to visit the website (and hence the listing agent’s website) and subscribe to property alerts, so the quality of the leads is higher.

If agency branches are transacting less business, they will inevitably be examining closely each line of their expenditure. The high price of a Rightmove subscription and the regular increases in cost make it a key line item. If an agent can achieve a significant proportion of market reach for a much smaller fee, the decision to switch should become easier.

Exhibit 2: Financial summary

£'000s

2017

2018

2019

2020e

2021e

31-January

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue

 

 

15,631

13,553

14,172

28,500

54,250

EBITDA

 

 

3,292

5,354

(11,750)

(7,514)

10,050

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

 

2,324

3,887

(13,639)

(9,723)

7,685

Amortisation of acquired intangibles

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

(3,506)

(1,436)

(597)

0

0

Share-based payments

0

(13,290)

(308)

0

0

Reported operating profit

(1,182)

(10,839)

(14,544)

(9,723)

7,685

Net Interest

(1,351)

(1,231)

50

279

193

Joint ventures & associates (post tax)

0

0

0

0

0

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

0

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

973

2,656

(13,589)

(9,444)

7,879

Profit Before Tax (reported)

 

 

(2,533)

(12,071)

(14,494)

(9,444)

7,879

Reported tax

(1,486)

(22)

(6)

1,889

(1,576)

Profit After Tax (norm)

(513)

2,634

(13,596)

(7,555)

6,303

Profit After Tax (reported)

(4,019)

(12,093)

(14,500)

(7,555)

6,303

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

0

Discontinued operations

0

0

0

0

0

Net income (normalised)

(513)

2,634

(13,596)

(7,555)

6,303

Net income (reported)

(4,019)

(12,093)

(14,501)

(7,555)

6,303

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

36

36

60

63

63

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

(1.4)

7.4

(22.5)

(12.0)

10.1

EPS - normalised fully diluted (p)

 

 

(1.4)

7.4

(22.5)

(12.0)

10.1

EPS - basic reported (p)

 

 

(11.3)

(34.0)

(24.0)

(12.0)

10.1

Dividend per share (p)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Revenue growth (%)

-

85.7

103.6

200.1

189.4

EBITDA Margin (%)

21.1

39.5

-82.9

-26.4

18.5

Normalised Operating Margin

14.9

28.7

-96.2

-34.1

14.2

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

3,601

3,672

4,078

4,453

4,931

Intangible Assets

3,556

3,654

3,948

4,156

4,350

Tangible Assets

45

18

130

297

581

Investments & other

0

0

0

0

0

Current Assets

 

 

5,972

3,727

18,777

12,435

20,439

Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

Debtors

3,709

553

3,104

3,255

5,877

Cash & cash equivalents

2,263

3,174

15,673

9,179

14,562

Other

0

0

0

0

0

Current Liabilities

 

 

(7,316)

(5,454)

(5,330)

(4,883)

(7,052)

Creditors

(5,937)

(2,957)

(4,548)

(4,883)

(7,052)

Tax and social security

0

0

(6)

0

0

Short term borrowings

(1,379)

(1,217)

0

0

0

Other

0

(1,280)

(776)

0

0

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(11,256)

(11,610)

(233)

(233)

(233)

Long term borrowings

(11,256)

(11,256)

0

0

0

Other long term liabilities

0

(354)

(233)

(233)

(233)

Net Assets

 

 

(8,999)

(9,665)

17,292

11,771

18,085

Minority interests

0

0

0

0

0

Shareholders' equity

 

 

(8,999)

(9,665)

17,292

11,771

18,085

CASH FLOW

Op Cash Flow before WC and tax

2,896

5,354

(11,982)

(7,514)

10,050

Working capital

(42)

176

367

191

(442)

Exceptional & other

(3,506)

(1,436)

(597)

0

0

Tax

(1,486)

0

(22)

1,889

(1,576)

Net operating cash flow

 

 

(2,138)

4,094

(12,234)

(5,434)

8,032

Capex

(1,623)

(1,538)

(2,305)

(2,585)

(2,843)

Acquisitions/disposals

0

0

19

0

0

Net interest

(937)

(1,393)

50

279

193

Equity financing

0

0

28,186

1,246

0

Dividends

0

0

0

0

0

Other

1,516

(252)

0

0

0

Net Cash Flow

(3,182)

911

13,716

(6,494)

5,383

Opening net (cash)/debt

 

 

6,747

10,372

9,299

(15,673)

(9,180)

FX

(30)

0

0

0

0

Other non-cash movements

(413)

161

11,256

0

0

Closing net (cash)/debt

 

 

10,372

9,299

(15,673)

(9,180)

(14,563)

Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research


General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by OnTheMarket and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by OnTheMarket. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

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Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

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Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

General disclaimer and copyright

This report has been commissioned by OnTheMarket and prepared and issued by Edison, in consideration of a fee payable by OnTheMarket. Edison Investment Research standard fees are £49,500 pa for the production and broad dissemination of a detailed note (Outlook) following by regular (typically quarterly) update notes. Fees are paid upfront in cash without recourse. Edison may seek additional fees for the provision of roadshows and related IR services for the client but does not get remunerated for any investment banking services. We never take payment in stock, options or warrants for any of our services.

Accuracy of content: All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report and have not sought for this information to be independently verified. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations.

Exclusion of Liability: To the fullest extent allowed by law, Edison shall not be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profits, damages, costs or expenses incurred or suffered by you arising out or in connection with the access to, use of or reliance on any information contained on this note.

No personalised advice: The information that we provide should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The securities described in the report may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors.

Investment in securities mentioned: Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing and conflicts of interest. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report, subject to Edison's policies on personal dealing and conflicts of interest.

Copyright: Copyright 2019 Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison). All rights reserved FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2019. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Australia

Edison Investment Research Pty Ltd (Edison AU) is the Australian subsidiary of Edison. Edison AU is a Corporate Authorised Representative (1252501) of Myonlineadvisers Pty Ltd who holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (Number: 427484). This research is issued in Australia by Edison AU and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Corporations Act 2001 of Australia. Any advice given by Edison AU is general advice only and does not take into account your personal circumstances, needs or objectives. You should, before acting on this advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Product Disclosure Statement or like instrument.

New Zealand

The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (i.e. without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.

United Kingdom

This document is prepared and provided by Edison for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.

This Communication is being distributed in the United Kingdom and is directed only at (i) persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments, i.e. investment professionals within the meaning of Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended (the "FPO") (ii) high net-worth companies, unincorporated associations or other bodies within the meaning of Article 49 of the FPO and (iii) persons to whom it is otherwise lawful to distribute it. The investment or investment activity to which this document relates is available only to such persons. It is not intended that this document be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and in any event and under no circumstances should persons of any other description rely on or act upon the contents of this document.

This Communication is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced by, further distributed to or published in whole or in part by, any other person.

United States

The Investment Research is a publication distributed in the United States by Edison Investment Research, Inc. Edison Investment Research, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. This report is a bona fide publication of general and regular circulation offering impersonal investment-related advice, not tailored to a specific investment portfolio or the needs of current and/or prospective subscribers. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personal advice and the research provided is for informational purposes only. No mention of a particular security in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell or hold that or any security, or that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

1,185 Avenue of the Americas

3rd Floor, New York, NY 10036

United States of America

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 4, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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