Smiths News (LSE: SNWS)

Currency in GBP

Last close As at 26/05/2023

GBP0.52

−0.60 (−1.14%)

Market capitalisation

GBP129m

Smiths News is the UK’s largest newspaper and magazine distributor with a c 55% market share covering 24,000 retailers in England and Wales. It has a range of long-term exclusive distribution contracts with major publishers, supplying a mix of supermarkets and independent retailers.

Volumes of newspaper and magazine sales have been falling at an average rate of c 5% pa for many years as first TV and radio and then online have taken over as the primary source of news consumptions by an increasingly younger audience. Cover price inflation has partially offset lost revenue, but Smiths News has had to, and continues to, cut costs repeatedly to make up the shortfall. These characteristics are likely to persist into the future, but Smiths is developing new revenue streams to offset these pressures.

Sector

Industrials

Equity Analyst

Natalya Davies

Natalya Davies

Associate Analyst

Key Management

  • David Blackwood

    Chairman

  • George Cooper

    Head of corporate and finance

  • Jonathan Bunting

    CEO

  • Paul Baker

    CFO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net debt (£m)

2.6

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

14

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
% 1M 3M 12M
Actual (0.4) 12.5 50.2
Relative 3.4 17.2 50.9
52 week high/low 57.6p/27.5p

Financials

The interim H123 results highlight continued growth in adjusted operating profit, management’s solid control of the business and the ongoing annual efficiencies being delivered. Furthermore, development of new profit streams are beginning to create momentum, which we expect should offset the anticipated decline in core revenues and support the payment of the dividend. This follows the signing of numerous long-term publisher contracts recently, which collectively account for 65% of current revenues. Additional contract renewals could be secured this year. These renewals bolster the company’s cash-generative business model, providing a steady stream of revenue up to 2029 or 2030. Our valuation remains unchanged at 89p, representing c 80% upside.

Y/E Aug Revenue (£m) EBITDA (£m) PBT (£m) EPS (fd) (p) P/E (x) P/CF (x)
2021A 1109.6 44.9 31.9 10.83 4.8 2.8
2022A 1089.3 42.9 32.3 11.03 4.7 2.9
2023E 1056.6 43.2 33.1 10.53 5.0 2.9
2024E 1024.9 42.9 33.5 10.28 5.1 2.9

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