Smiths News is the UK’s largest newspaper and magazine distributor with a c 55% market share covering 24,000 retailers in England and Wales. It has a range of long-term exclusive distribution contracts with major publishers, supplying a mix of supermarkets and independent retailers.
Volumes of newspaper and magazine sales have been falling at an average rate of c 5% pa for many years as first TV and radio and then online have taken over as the primary source of news consumption by an increasingly younger audience. Cover price inflation has partially offset lost revenue, but Smiths News has had to, and continues to, cut costs repeatedly to make up the shortfall. These characteristics are likely to persist into the future, but Smiths is developing new revenue streams to offset these pressures.
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David Blackwood
Chairman
George Cooper
Head of corporate and finance
Jonathan Bunting
CEO
Paul Baker
CFO
Forecast net debt (£m)
8.1
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
270
% | 1M | 3M | 12M |
---|---|---|---|
Actual | 0.0 | (9.9) | 2.3 |
Relative | (3.1) | (12.2) | (4.4) |
52 week high/low | 55.2p/40.7p |
The FY23 results highlighted continued growth in adjusted operating profit, management’s tight control of the business and the delivery of ongoing annual efficiencies. This year, Smiths may also renew several long-term publisher contracts, which could imply visibility over at least 80% of annual revenues to 2029. Furthermore, the development of new profit streams is beginning to create momentum, which may have the potential to more than offset the slow decline in core profits and support the dividend. Our valuation remains unchanged at 89p, representing c 80% upside.
Y/E Aug | Revenue (£m) | EBITDA (£m) | PBT (£m) | EPS (fd) (p) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022A | 1089.3 | 42.9 | 32.3 | 11.03 | 4.4 | N/A |
2023A | 1091.9 | 42.7 | 33.4 | 10.68 | 4.5 | N/A |
2024E | 1026.4 | 42.1 | 33.4 | 10.28 | 4.7 | N/A |
2025E | 995.6 | 41.8 | 33.3 | 10.24 | 4.7 | N/A |