NioCorp Developments

Overview
Price performance
Financials
Research
Thematics

NioCorp Developments is developing North America’s only niobium/scandium/titanium critical minerals mine and processing facility at Elk Creek in Nebraska. Its mission is to accelerate the US transition to a lower carbon economy by serving as a reliable domestic supplier of sustainably produced critical minerals.

Adjusted for Nebraska risk as well as stage of development, we value NioCorp at US$23.48/share, or US$15.79 when adjusted for the overall risk of commerciality. Alternatively, assuming a US$425.5m equity raising at US$3.08, we calculate a fully diluted value of US$7.16/share, rising to a peak of US$16.87/share in FY33.

Latest Insights

Metals & Mining |
Initiation

08.01.24

NioCorp Developments — Niobium husking

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Sector

Metals & Mining

Equity Analyst

Lord Ashbourne

Director of Content, Mining

Key Management

Jim Sims

Chief Communications Officer
Mark Smith

CEO and executive chairman
Neal Shah

CFO

Balance Sheet

Forecast net cash (US$m)

379.9

Forecast gearing ratio (%)

N/A

Share Price Performance

Price Performance
%	1M	3M	12M
Actual	(23.2)	(20.3)	(56.5)
Relative	(24.6)	(24.4)	(65.7)
52 week high/low	US$5.4/US$2.0

Financials

NioCorp is developing the Elk Creek mine in Nebraska, which is a polymetallic resource that hosts the highest-grade undeveloped niobium deposit and the largest ‘indicated’ or better terbium resource (a heavy rare earth) in the US (inter alia) and could be in production as early as 2027. A DFS in 2022 calculated a pre-tax IRR of 29.2% and a post-tax NPV (8%) of US$2,350m (US$70.51/share). However, the project now appears poised for a material change in product mix to improve its economics and reduce its previous reliance on scandium as well as an increasingly likely sale of rare earth output to (and strategic investment from) Stellantis. In the meantime, it is also in advanced negotiations for up to US$800m in low interest debt financing from the US’s Export-Import Bank.