4imprint is the leading direct marketer of promotional products in the United States, Canada, the UK and Ireland. In FY23, 98% of revenues were generated in the United States and Canada.
The US promotional products distribution market is highly fragmented and PPAI estimated its 2023 value at US$26.1bn, up 2.2% on the year, after a disappointing Q4. After a further dip in Q1, the market recovered lost ground in Q2 to be effectively flat over the half, implying further market share gains for 4imprint, already the largest player but with a share of just 5%. Some questions remain about confidence in the US corporate sector but the utility of promotional products is high and sector prospects remain positive.
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David Seekings
FD
Kevin Lyons-Tarr
CEO
Forecast net cash (US$m)
133.7
Forecast gearing ratio (%)
N/A
% | 1M | 3M | 12M |
---|---|---|---|
Actual | (10.1) | (16.2) | (1.5) |
Relative | (10.5) | (16.2) | (10.5) |
52 week high/low | 6540.0p/4255.0p |
4imprint has continued to trade better than its underlying market across H124, with revenues 5% ahead of H123.The gross margin improvement posted in H223 from pricing and mix has continued and looks to be sustainable. Operating profit was up by 10%, aided by the group’s marketing flexibility, with more TV/brand awareness in the mix. We have trimmed our FY24 revenue forecast by 3% but lifted our pre-tax profit by 2%, with consequent adjustments to FY25, where we look for 6.5% top-line growth, predicated on a stronger US economy. We have also published our first thoughts on FY26 with similar growth and margin assumptions.
Y/E Dec | Revenue (US$m) | EBITDA (US$m) | PBT (US$m) | EPS (fd) (c) | P/E (x) | P/CF (x) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022A | 1140.3 | 108.4 | 103.7 | 285.6 | 22.8 | 18.1 |
2023A | 1326.5 | 142.6 | 140.7 | 377.9 | 17.3 | 11.0 |
2024E | 1393.5 | 151.0 | 150.0 | 404.6 | 16.1 | 12.6 |
2025E | 1484.0 | 160.4 | 159.3 | 423.3 | 15.4 | 11.6 |