Last close As at 05/08/2026
GBP48.90
▲ 500.00 (11.39%)
Market capitalisation
GBP1,378m
Research: TMT
4imprint’s interim results reflect the narrative at last week’s trading update, being strong underlying demand, an uptick in gross margin as the supply chain bottlenecks ease and strong returns on each dollar of marketing spend. Having upgraded following the update, we have now ‘tidied up’ our modelling for FY23 and FY24. With the buy-in of the legacy defined benefit pension and the accelerated recovery contributions, plus payment of the special dividend, we expect 4imprint to end FY23 with net cash of around $72m. This gives plenty of firepower to support continued growth, helped by a likely project in FY24 to extend the Oshkosh distribution centre. The group is clearly outperforming its market and building (profitable) share.
4imprint |
Record H123 customer demand |
Trading update |
Media |
9 August 2023 |
Share price performance
Business description
Next events
Analysts
4imprint is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited |
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4imprint’s interim results reflect the narrative at last week’s trading update, being strong underlying demand, an uptick in gross margin as the supply chain bottlenecks ease and strong returns on each dollar of marketing spend. Having upgraded following the update, we have now ‘tidied up’ our modelling for FY23 and FY24. With the buy-in of the legacy defined benefit pension and the accelerated recovery contributions, plus payment of the special dividend, we expect 4imprint to end FY23 with net cash of around $72m. This gives plenty of firepower to support continued growth, helped by a likely project in FY24 to extend the Oshkosh distribution centre. The group is clearly outperforming its market and building (profitable) share.
Year |
Revenue |
PBT* |
EPS* |
DPS** |
P/E |
Yield |
12/21 |
787 |
30.2 |
80.3 |
45.0 |
80.5 |
0.7 |
12/22 |
1,140 |
103.7 |
285.0 |
160.0 |
22.7 |
2.5 |
12/23e |
1,320 |
126.0 |
335.3 |
185.0 |
19.3 |
2.9 |
12/24e |
1,450 |
141.0 |
379.5 |
210.0 |
17.0 |
3.2 |
Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles and exceptional items. **Excluding special dividends.
Strong H1 demand on improved margins
The recently revised guidance is for FY23 revenue ‘slightly above $1.3bn’ and pre-tax profit of ‘not less than $125m’. Our slightly updated forecasts are $1,320m and $126m, respectively. H123 order levels were well ahead, up 18%, with the brand marketing continuing to attract new customers. These new customers are exhibiting similar ordering patterns to the more established cohort, which bodes well for continued growth and build in market share through FY24. 4imprint’s share of the North American promotional products distribution market is under 5%. Its H123 revenue growth of 23% is well ahead of the market, as cited by industry body ASI, of +3.3% in Q1 and +5.6% in Q2. 4imprint’s H123 gross margin was lifted by a favourable combination of product mix, cost and selling price, along with some easing of supply chain friction. Operating margins were also helped by the marketing efficiency, offsetting further investment in people to ensure continuing good customer experience.
Pension solution increases flexibility for investment
Post July’s buy-in of the legacy defined benefit pension, related risks from interest rates, inflation and longevity have been eliminated. To allow for the next phase of growth, management is looking at extending the Oshkosh distribution centre, increasing its footprint by up to 50%. Our FY24 modelling now includes spend of $20m on this project on top of the $7m of capex we had previously pencilled in.
Valuation: DCF still shows good upside potential
The share price is up by 22% year-to-date, following the very positive reaction to the recent trading update, building on a strong performance from mid-2022. A discounted cash flow (weighted average cost of capital of 8.0%; terminal growth of 3%, as before) generates an implied value of £68.20, up from £67.30 and well ahead of the current share price.
Exhibit 1: Financial summary
$000s |
2020 |
2021 |
2022 |
2023e |
2024e |
||
Year end 31 December |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
IFRS |
||
PROFIT & LOSS |
|||||||
Revenue |
|
|
560,040 |
787,322 |
1,140,286 |
1,320,000 |
1,450,000 |
Cost of Sales |
(402,100) |
(561,306) |
(818,670) |
(921,330) |
(1,015,000) |
||
Gross Profit |
157,940 |
226,016 |
321,616 |
398,670 |
435,000 |
||
EBITDA |
|
|
8,905 |
35,660 |
108,428 |
128,800 |
146,900 |
Operating profit (before amort. and excepts.) |
|
|
3,972 |
30,646 |
102,902 |
122,500 |
138,300 |
Intangible Amortisation |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Exceptionals |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Operating Profit |
3,972 |
30,646 |
102,902 |
122,500 |
138,300 |
||
Net Interest |
(129) |
(417) |
804 |
3,500 |
2,700 |
||
Profit Before Tax (norm) |
|
|
3,843 |
30,229 |
103,706 |
126,000 |
141,000 |
Profit Before Tax (IFRS) |
|
|
3,843 |
30,229 |
103,706 |
126,000 |
141,000 |
Tax |
(753) |
(7,643) |
(23,563) |
(31,500) |
(33,840) |
||
Profit After Tax (norm) |
3,090 |
22,586 |
80,143 |
94,500 |
107,160 |
||
Profit After Tax (IFRS) |
3,090 |
22,586 |
80,143 |
94,500 |
107,160 |
||
Discontinued businesses |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Net income (norm) |
|
|
3,090 |
22,586 |
80,143 |
94,500 |
107,160 |
Net income (IFRS) |
|
|
3,090 |
22,586 |
80,143 |
94,500 |
107,160 |
Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) |
28.0 |
28.1 |
28.1 |
28.1 |
28.2 |
||
EPS - normalised fully diluted (c) |
|
|
11.0 |
80.3 |
285.0 |
335.3 |
379.5 |
EPS - (IFRS) (c) |
|
|
11.0 |
80.5 |
285.6 |
336.0 |
380.4 |
Dividend per share (c) |
0.0 |
45.0 |
160.0 |
185.0 |
210.0 |
||
Special dividend per share (c) |
0.0 |
0.0 |
200.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
||
Gross Margin (%) |
28.2 |
28.7 |
28.2 |
30.2 |
30.0 |
||
EBITDA Margin (%) |
1.6 |
4.5 |
9.5 |
9.8 |
10.1 |
||
Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%) |
0.7 |
3.9 |
9.0 |
9.3 |
9.5 |
||
BALANCE SHEET |
|||||||
Fixed Assets |
|
|
43,269 |
40,011 |
47,940 |
47,709 |
64,716 |
Intangible Assets |
0 |
0 |
1,010 |
1,010 |
1,010 |
||
Other intangible assets |
1,100 |
1,045 |
957 |
957 |
957 |
||
Tangible Assets |
24,832 |
24,667 |
29,255 |
31,255 |
49,655 |
||
Right of use assets |
13,065 |
11,725 |
13,103 |
11,400 |
10,060 |
||
Deferred tax assets |
4,272 |
600 |
2,381 |
3,034 |
3,034 |
||
Retirement benefit asset |
|
|
0 |
1,974 |
1,234 |
53 |
0 |
Current Assets |
|
|
89,812 |
127,771 |
192,353 |
192,536 |
235,808 |
Stocks |
11,271 |
20,559 |
18,090 |
21,465 |
21,810 |
||
Debtors |
38,775 |
63,589 |
87,511 |
98,771 |
108,498 |
||
Cash and short-term deposits |
39,766 |
41,589 |
86,752 |
72,300 |
105,500 |
||
Other |
0 |
2,034 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Current Liabilities |
|
|
(51,118) |
(73,027) |
(87,401) |
(97,047) |
(106,239) |
Creditors |
(50,001) |
(71,877) |
(85,966) |
(95,667) |
(105,089) |
||
Short term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Lease liabilities |
(1,117) |
(1,150) |
(1,435) |
(1,380) |
(1,150) |
||
Long Term Liabilities |
|
|
(16,592) |
(11,789) |
(12,672) |
(11,278) |
(10,078) |
Long term borrowings |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Lease liabilities |
(12,089) |
(10,939) |
(12,315) |
(10,920) |
(9,720) |
||
Other long term liabilities |
(4,503) |
(850) |
(357) |
(358) |
(358) |
||
Net Assets |
|
|
65,371 |
82,966 |
140,220 |
131,919 |
184,207 |
CASH FLOW |
|||||||
Operating Cash Flow |
|
|
16,462 |
22,846 |
101,317 |
132,300 |
144,500 |
Net Interest |
(13) |
(409) |
699 |
3,500 |
2,700 |
||
Tax |
(507) |
(6,414) |
(20,755) |
(29,000) |
(31,340) |
||
Capex |
(3,724) |
(3,465) |
(8,011) |
(8,300) |
(27,000) |
||
Acquisitions/disposals |
0 |
0 |
(1,700) |
0 |
0 |
||
Pension contributions |
(13,278) |
(4,589) |
(4,367) |
(6,600) |
0 |
||
Financing |
941 |
(843) |
(866) |
(900) |
(900) |
||
Dividends |
0 |
(4,134) |
(18,722) |
(103,560) |
(54,612) |
||
Other/ Capital portion of lease repayments |
(1,418) |
(1,117) |
(2,432) |
(1,900) |
(1,200) |
||
Net Cash Flow |
(1,537) |
1,875 |
45,163 |
(14,460) |
32,148 |
||
Opening net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(41,136) |
(39,766) |
(41,589) |
(86,752) |
(72,300) |
Net impact of disposals etc |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
||
Other |
167 |
(53) |
0 |
8 |
35 |
||
Closing net debt/(cash) |
|
|
(39,766) |
(41,589) |
(86,752) |
(72,300) |
(104,484) |
Source: Company accounts, Edison Investment Research
|
|
Research: TMT
CLIQ Digital delivered robust growth in H123, with 37% year-on-year growth in both revenue and EBITDA at a maintained margin of 15.8%. Growth continues to be driven by growing marketing spend and investment into evolving the bundled content offering. Given a more competitive bidding market, management is focusing on acquiring customers with a higher lifetime value to create a more profitable subscriber base. Management has reiterated both its FY23 and mid-term FY25 guidance and our headline forecasts remain unchanged. Despite CLIQ’s share price performance faring better than the peer average valuation, it remains at a significant discount to peers on both EV/sales and EV/EBITDA multiples. In our view there continues to be significant upside to the current share price on our current estimates.